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Understanding the Covid Odds

by Will Jones
7 February 2022 1:59 PM

Perhaps the biggest barrier to ending the pandemic and its related interventions and theatre is the irrational fear that many people still have of the virus, a fear that ironically (though not surprisingly from a psychological perspective) grips the vaccinated much more than the unvaccinated. John Tierney in City Journal has crunched the numbers to help people come to a rational assessment of their risk.

It’s obviously not easy to give up fear of COVID-19, to judge from a recent survey showing that the vaccinated are actually more frightened than the unvaccinated. Another survey found that most Democratic voters are so worried that they want to make it illegal for the unvaccinated to leave home. But before you don another mask or disinfect another surface, before you cheer on politicians and school officials enforcing mandates, consider your odds of a fatal Covid case once you’ve been vaccinated.

Those odds can be gauged from a study by researchers at the National Institutes of Health, published by the Centers for Disease Control. They tracked more than one million vaccinated adults in America over most of last year, including the period when the Delta variant was surging, and classified victims of Covid according to risk factors such as being over 65, being immunosuppressed, or suffering from diabetes or chronic diseases of the heart, kidney, lungs, liver or brain.

The researchers report that none of the healthy people under 65 had a severe case of Covid that required treatment in an intensive-care unit. Not a single one of these nearly 700,000 people died, and the risk was miniscule for most older people, too. Among vaccinated people over 65 without an underlying medical condition, only one person died. In all, there were 36 deaths, mostly among a small minority of older people with a multitude of comorbidities: the 3% of the sample that had at least four risk factors. Among everyone else, a group that included elderly people with one or two chronic conditions, there were just eight deaths among more than 1.2 million people, so their risk of dying was about one in 150,000.

Those are roughly the same odds that in the course of a year you will die in a fire, or that you’ll perish by falling down stairs. Going anywhere near automobiles is a bigger risk: you’re three times more likely during a given year to be killed while riding in a car, and also three times more likely to be a pedestrian casualty. The 150,000-to-one odds of a Covid death are even longer than the odds over your lifetime of dying in an earthquake or being killed by lightning.

John goes on to note that “studies have shown that natural immunity is much stronger and longer-lasting than vaccine immunity”, and while the threat of Covid is greater for unvaccinated adults, the case for vaccine mandates is obsolete “now that it’s clear that vaccination doesn’t prevent reinfection and transmission”.

Worth reading in full.

Tags: Age-adjusted mortalityCovid deathsRiskVaccine efficacy

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125 Comments
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Libertarianist
Libertarianist
3 years ago

This is a great resource, but it addresses the cognitive, not the ‘feels’.
There will always be a hardcore of people who will never be reached. The question is how large that rump will be.
Another question is how many of those who are amenable to logic can be immunised against further deliberately instigated fear.
I fear that not enough will be able to clear headed enough when this is attempted again in the future.

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RickH
RickH
3 years ago
Reply to  Libertarianist

You are undoubtedly right in noting the rational v. emotional conundrum. No simple solution – except contrary emotional pressure. That’s why propaganda works.

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TheyLiveAndWeLockdown
TheyLiveAndWeLockdown
3 years ago
Reply to  RickH

People who self identify as hypochondriacs by wearing masks need help

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RW
RW
3 years ago
Reply to  TheyLiveAndWeLockdown

Putting used chewing gums behind their masks might help! 🙂

2
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Annie
Annie
3 years ago
Reply to  RW

Some of them keep used chewing gum in their pockets along with their muzzles.

4
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RW
RW
3 years ago
Reply to  Annie

I’ve also seen some cloth ones which positively looked as if they had been in continuous use (ie, without ever being washed) ever since the first mandate. However, considering that most muzzleloids are probably rather of the sanitize everything before and after each use type, the idea that something someone else just had in his mouth is now between themselves and their mask should make them pull it off in total horror.

Unless they’ve got a spare one, the way to their next anti-virus face armour depot could perhaps enable them to learn something.

Always eager to help 🙂

Positive news: For the first time since the renewed mask mandate, the sorry half-faces where decidedly in the minority when I made my daily shopping trip earlier today.

Last edited 3 years ago by RW
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Spirit of the wind
Spirit of the wind
3 years ago
Reply to  TheyLiveAndWeLockdown

In one of my local supermanrkets this weeknd the vast majority were maskless, once the restircions are lifted, hardly anuyone wants to wear one of the dirty smelly dirty rags.
The worried well are a smaller minority now.

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karenovirus
karenovirus
3 years ago
Reply to  RickH

In the 12 months following 9/11 large numbers of Americans abandoned domestic flying out of fear of being used as human bombs in a second wave of attacks (even though it was obvious that Al Qaeda had shot its bolt).

So many returned to long distance driving that there were twice as many ‘extra’ road deaths (6k) that year than were killed in the Twin Tower attacks themselves.

Rational people woul, did, carry on flying.

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Nearhorburian
Nearhorburian
3 years ago
Reply to  karenovirus

Me and my then girlfriend had a holiday booked in NYC starting on 22/9/2001.

We agreed it was probably the safest city on the planet with regard to terrorist attacks – I hadn’t yet realised it was a false-flag attack – so still went.

We got bumped up to a suite in the hotel because so many had cancelled.

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karenovirus
karenovirus
3 years ago
Reply to  Nearhorburian

Good for you, getting th benefits of a more realistic risk assessment.

1
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MrTea
MrTea
3 years ago
Reply to  Nearhorburian

I hope you did breath in too much of the toxic dust particles.

1
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CynicalRealist
CynicalRealist
3 years ago
Reply to  karenovirus

We might have the same in this country with trains versus cars – it’s quite noticeable that roads are back to their usual level (or above) much of the time now, whereas trains are often half empty (except at the main leisure travelling times such as Friday evening, when numbers are back – but seems to be predominantly younger people who probably don’t have cars in many cases)

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karenovirus
karenovirus
3 years ago
Reply to  CynicalRealist

Trains don’t stop outside their house or take them all the way to where they want to go. So 20th Century.

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MrTea
MrTea
3 years ago
Reply to  karenovirus

Plus the only mentalers you have to put up with are your own family members.

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Jaguarpig
Jaguarpig
3 years ago
Reply to  karenovirus

It was a great time empty airports cheap seats and loads of reward availability we flew every month.

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Mr Taxpayer
Mr Taxpayer
3 years ago
Reply to  karenovirus

A similar phenomenon occured in UK after the Hatfield rail crash. National Rail imposed a nationwide speed limit that hugely increased journey times. Commuters switched to road causing far more deaths and injuries (and pollution) than were saved by the rail restrictions.

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Lockdown Sceptic
Lockdown Sceptic
3 years ago
Reply to  Libertarianist

Comedian (Comedienne) Jokes About Being Jabbed & Boosted, Immediately Collapses On Stage Due To ‘Unknown Cause’
https://www.redvoicemedia.com/2022/02/comedian-jokes-about-being-jabbed-boosted-immediately-collapses-on-stage-due-to-unknown-cause
BY GREGORY HOYT

Let’s keep getting the message out

Tuesday 8th February 2pm to 3pm
 Yellow Boards By the Road 
A329 junction London Road & Oak Avenue 
Near Oakingham Belle pub
Wokingham RG40 1LH

Stand in the Park Sundays 10am  make friends, ignore the madness & keep sane 
Wokingham Howard Palmer Gardens Cockpit Path car park Sturges Rd RG40 2HD  
Henley Mills Meadows (at the bandstand) Henley-on-Thames RG9 1DS

Telegram Group 
http://t.me/astandintheparkbracknell

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Rowan
Rowan
3 years ago
Reply to  Libertarianist

And it will be attempted again and in the not so distant future, you can bet the house on that.

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John Dee
John Dee
3 years ago
Reply to  Libertarianist

If we insist on acting like cattle, then we shouldn’t be surprised when the cattle trucks appear.

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Free Lemming
Free Lemming
3 years ago

“John goes on to note that “studies have shown that natural immunity is much stronger and longer-lasting than vaccine immunity”, and while the threat of Covid is greater for unvaccinated adults…”. I’d imagine the majority of unvaccinated people have had a previous infection, so point one makes point two invalid. We need to understand how many unvaccinated people have already had a natural infection, rather than assessing them as a single group all with equivalent risk. Also, the majority of unvaccinated are in healthy age range groups, so will be personally at very, very little risk. This whole debacle has been driven by treating everyone as the same – a nonsense one-fit-for-all approach.

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RickH
RickH
3 years ago
Reply to  Free Lemming

There is even a skew in the perceived risk re. multiple comorbidities. Such individuals are at increased risk from any infection. SARS is just another in the list.

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TheyLiveAndWeLockdown
TheyLiveAndWeLockdown
3 years ago
Reply to  Free Lemming

The “odd” thing is you can’t change your sex or age, but you can change another variable that strongly increases medical risks (especially SARS2 which is why I think it’s targeted not natural) namely your weight.

However Most of the panickers and jab queue jumpers put ON weight during lockdown…

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John
John
3 years ago
Reply to  TheyLiveAndWeLockdown

It is not necessarily easy to change your weight, there is a genetic component and once you’re obese you are in a chronic inflammatory state which causes further problems. See attached screenshot from immunology presentation on YouTube by Brianne Barker.

CF7A59C3-BEC0-45DD-A8A4-52002A6315DE.png
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TheyLiveAndWeLockdown
TheyLiveAndWeLockdown
3 years ago
Reply to  John

While it’s true that dieting be hard it’s not impossible, you can cheat by dieting with ibuprofen and cut out fructose sources helps too as does fasting with stock cubes to keep your salt up.

Well that’s my experience anyway

Last edited 3 years ago by TheyLiveAndWeLockdown
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Vxi7
Vxi7
3 years ago
Reply to  John

Not easy but I guess it’s easier to blame genetics and keep eating unnecessary calories.

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John Dee
John Dee
3 years ago
Reply to  TheyLiveAndWeLockdown

That was the bit I couldn’t get my head around. It was known from the off that the obese were more at risk, yet some people spent two years gaining weight.
Rather like swimming near sharks and being the one with the bleeding hand…

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JohnK
JohnK
3 years ago
Reply to  Free Lemming

Whilst I agree with your main idea, it’s not easy to assess who has really had an infection caused by SARS-Cov-2 at all during the panic. I did shell out some cash to have a proper T-spot assessment done, which resulted in me not having any T-cell records that would have shown that I was infected by it. So, whatever it was in early 2020 it must have been caused by something else. However, there is also the difficulty that many of us have a degree of cross-immunity. After all, many ‘common cold’ infections are caused by other coronaviruses.

0
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John Dee
John Dee
3 years ago
Reply to  JohnK

While it may not be easy to assess who has had an infection by now, it’s relatively simple to look at your risk factors – age, body fat %, existing health problems – and act accordingly.

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milesahead
milesahead
3 years ago

Excellent analysis of the minimal risks – the MSM should be broadcasting this loud and clear. It’s a pity the MSM are only interested in spreading fear-porn!

Last edited 3 years ago by milesahead
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Julian
Julian
3 years ago

“Of course, the threat of Covid is greater for unvaccinated adults”

If you say so… where’s the evidence?

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milesahead
milesahead
3 years ago
Reply to  Julian

The threat of the jabs’ side-effects clearly over-rides any risk (assuming such a risk even exists!) for the unvaccinated from Covid!

Last edited 3 years ago by milesahead
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TheyLiveAndWeLockdown
TheyLiveAndWeLockdown
3 years ago
Reply to  milesahead

Which is obviously from the pfiser medical trial whereby 17 placebo members died but 21 jabbed group members died.
i.e. it increased all cause mortality.

Last edited 3 years ago by TheyLiveAndWeLockdown
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MrTea
MrTea
3 years ago
Reply to  TheyLiveAndWeLockdown

And those are the figures after they manipulated the living daylights out of them.

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TheyLiveAndWeLockdown
TheyLiveAndWeLockdown
3 years ago
Reply to  Julian

Plus you’ll get the jab risks PLUS the (allegedly lower) covid risks as the jab is not a sterilising vaccination.

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John Dee
John Dee
3 years ago
Reply to  TheyLiveAndWeLockdown

And, since they’re too lazy or condescending in the UK medical circles, they won’t aspirate before injecting, so you could get the shot straight into a vein rather than a muscle. A ‘quick’ method to end up with ‘dead’ patients.

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karenovirus
karenovirus
3 years ago
Reply to  Julian

Is he saying there is a greater risk of catching Covid if unvaxxed or repeating the popular idea that the unvaxxed are more likely to become seriously ill if they do become infected?

Last edited 3 years ago by karenovirus
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Julian
Julian
3 years ago
Reply to  karenovirus

I interpreted it as the latter, on the basis that getting infected is not especially dangerous per se

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cornubian
cornubian
3 years ago
Reply to  Julian

The pro-vax ‘study’ this article is based on isnt worth the paper its written on. They ‘forgot’ to take into account the 200,000 deaths caused by the injections and also the millions of life-changing injuries.

So what do the odds look like now Will?

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John Dee
John Dee
3 years ago
Reply to  Julian

If that ‘unvaccinated adults’ had been prefaced with ‘vulnerable’ it might have been less egregious. It looks to me like reasonably healthy adults don’t have much to fear from Omicron.

0
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steve_z
steve_z
3 years ago

it was always clearly more dangerous for me to get vaccinated than not bother. risks of covid are miniscule. but there are significant risks of driving to the vaccination centre, having the jab, driving back but feeling a bit ‘whoozy’ and smashing into a brick wall

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huxleypiggles
huxleypiggles
3 years ago

All well and good but our current Orwellian predicament has sod all to do with the C1984.

The medical argument was won before the worst excesses commenced in early 2020. The real battle is in getting the sheeple to understand the depth of the scam and how seriously they have been played.

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karenovirus
karenovirus
3 years ago
Reply to  huxleypiggles

The vaccinated are also worried about being wrong when they die of Covid.

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John Dee
John Dee
3 years ago
Reply to  karenovirus

Or, possibly, just before.

1
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Jo Starlin
Jo Starlin
3 years ago

I read that article earlier (regular City Journal reader). There’s a real hardcore Branch Covidian named “Brian” in the comments, completely off the deep end.

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John Dee
John Dee
3 years ago
Reply to  Jo Starlin

Don’t knock Brian, he’s a living museum piece.

1
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stewart
stewart
3 years ago

and while the threat of Covid is greater for unvaccinated adults

Ugghhh. Exhausting.

Is the DS being forced to parrot the dogma? Is the DS going to be suspended from some key platform if it doesn’t keep shoehorning this sort of statement into it’s articles?

Does that phrase add anything of value to article?

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Jo Starlin
Jo Starlin
3 years ago
Reply to  stewart

That’s actually from the article, though not made very clear. We mustn’t let the perfect be the enemy of the good, John Tierney has been fairly sound throughout for a relatively mainstream journo (not that that’s saying much!)

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Jo Starlin
Jo Starlin
3 years ago
Reply to  Jo Starlin

Tierney also has Fauci’s number, he’s written a number of articles about his deranged AIDS projections from the 1980s.

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Marcus Aurelius knew
Marcus Aurelius knew
3 years ago

“John goes on to note that “studies have shown that natural immunity is much stronger and longer-lasting than vaccine immunity”, and while the threat of Covid is greater for unvaccinated adults…“

What?! Evidence suggests otherwise.

29
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John Dee
John Dee
3 years ago
Reply to  Marcus Aurelius knew

That bit does seem to have jarred with a number of us on here. It certainly caused a double-take for me.

0
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Jez Hewitt
Jez Hewitt
3 years ago

Methinks I have a greater chance of being offed by my government than of dying from covid. Who’d have flipping thought, huh?

40
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karenovirus
karenovirus
3 years ago
Reply to  Jez Hewitt

20th Century Problem.
1. Most common cause of none accidental & none natural death worldwide
= Other peoples governments (war).

2. Second most common . . .
= Your own government (civil war, Judicial Execution, induced famine, repression and oppression).

Solution = Ban governments.

Last edited 3 years ago by karenovirus
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TheyLiveAndWeLockdown
TheyLiveAndWeLockdown
3 years ago
Reply to  karenovirus

Well banning marxism would’ve saved most of them.

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karenovirus
karenovirus
3 years ago
Reply to  TheyLiveAndWeLockdown

Far too much to play with here.

Marxist Lenin capped Russian WW1 deaths at 2million (‘sociallist’ Karensky and almost everyone else would have kept the slaughter going) but then launched the Russian Chauvanist civil war with 8-10 million dead followed by Marxist Stalins lracism induced famines.
To be fair Stalin backtracked on Marxism to prosecute WW2.
Pol Pots Killing Fields hid behind Marxism in what was a racist purge of non Khmer elements (why it went on long after victory)

and many many more.

Last edited 3 years ago by karenovirus
2
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stewart
stewart
3 years ago
Reply to  karenovirus

That is one level of hypnosis I doubt you’ll be able to break through.

The Hobbesian idea that we cannot survive without governments, that all would be chaos, violence and misery is just too deeply ingrained in the modern human psyche.

Most people only believe in the good will of others as long as there is someone with a big stick standing over them.

I’m not sure one way or the other myself, but given where we are now, I’m up for the experiment.

5
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karenovirus
karenovirus
3 years ago
Reply to  stewart

I could prove Hobbs wrong so long as I held the only big stick.

My own doubts stem from Lord Of The Flies where, rather than spending weeks larking around on the golden seashore Jack and his gang would ensure their survival by gathering up all the weapons and supplies to put in the Stockade, set a great big roaring fire; organise the manhunt to capture Ralphs gang to cook and eat them one by one as required.

1
0
Vxi7
Vxi7
3 years ago
Reply to  Jez Hewitt

Government:
‘we want to save your life so you MUST take this vaccine otherwise we remove your livelihood which gives you accommodation, nutrition and comfort to live!”

3
-1
RedhotScot
RedhotScot
3 years ago

What are the odds if ivermectin and HCQ are included?

20
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ElSabio
ElSabio
3 years ago
Reply to  RedhotScot

That’s an interesting question….

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/you-will-not-believe-what-ive-just-found-inside-the-ivermectin-saga-a-hacked-password-mysterious-websites-and-faulty-data-11644240013?mod=mw_latestnews

1
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TheyLiveAndWeLockdown
TheyLiveAndWeLockdown
3 years ago
Reply to  ElSabio

I wonder what would happen if “market” watch did a similar article on the lack of evidence behind the so-called vaccines. I see the article called the jabs vaccines which tells me a lot about their biases.

5
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ElSabio
ElSabio
3 years ago
Reply to  TheyLiveAndWeLockdown

Well, yes, they have their biases, as does everyone, but they were honest enough to put this in print:

Kory now says the Benha study is deeply flawed — “that paper stinks,” he told me — but he puts the blame for the wave of retractions and withdrawals of ivermectin studies on pharmaceutical companies that he said have spent decades developing disinformation campaigns that aim to restrict the repurposing of cheap generic drugs.

“It would dry up the sales of remdesivir and Paxlovid and molnupiravir,” said Kory, referring to some of the most prominent therapeutics, developed by Gilead, Pfizer PFE, 0.09% and Merck & Co. MRK, -0.59%, which have been authorized to treat COVID-19. “You name it. Monoclonal antibodies. It literally threatened the market value of almost anything out there on a global pandemic.” Kory added: “What we’re talking about, a historic corruption, the disinformation campaign waged against a repurposed drug.”

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TheyLiveAndWeLockdown
TheyLiveAndWeLockdown
3 years ago
Reply to  ElSabio

It’s pretty clear that ivermectin blocks SARS2 from access to the ACE2 receptor as well as lowering inflammation (and other anti-viral effects).

Compared to the horrendous molnupiravir it’s a miracle drug.

just before xmas.they also knobbled budesonide!

4
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John Dee
John Dee
3 years ago
Reply to  TheyLiveAndWeLockdown

Ivermectin’s main problem was that, if they hadn’t rubbished it and HCQ, they couldn’t have pushed through the ’emergency’ OK for the vaxxes.
‘Don’t let Reality get in the way of the Narrative.’

0
0
Marcus Aurelius knew
Marcus Aurelius knew
3 years ago

The odds are simple – for 99.9987% of people, covid presents – at worst – a minor inconvenience.

In addition, if you catch it in the normal way, your immune system gets an update, giving you real protection from future versions of the virus, which persists a lot longer than any “protection” proffered by the untested so-called “vaccines”.

30
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John Dee
John Dee
3 years ago
Reply to  Marcus Aurelius knew

It’s certainly been elevated to more than ‘a minor inconvenience’ by the way it’s been handled throughout most of the developed world.

0
0
Anonymous
Anonymous
3 years ago

“… you’re three times more likely during a given year to be killed while riding in a car …”

The chances rise substantially if ’er indoors happens to be driving. 

14
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cloud6
cloud6
3 years ago
Reply to  Anonymous

Or walking into the road with a mobile phone glued to the ear!

11
0
MikeAustin
MikeAustin
3 years ago

I have been printing and distributing these fliers and stickers. It summarises the numbers and provides links.

covid-death-flier-front-20220127.jpg
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MikeAustin
MikeAustin
3 years ago
Reply to  MikeAustin

And the other side…

covid-death-flier-back-20220127.jpg
18
0
DanClarke
DanClarke
3 years ago

Its been interesting to see what effect the Behavioural Insights Team has had on the public, some still wearing their masks and detoxing their hands when they touch something. Whereas for others, the hysteria has had no effect at all. One wonders if they are actually fearful, being compliant or signalling their virtue. Wonder how much the now private BIT charged the government for their part.

10
0
Dave Angel Eco Warrior
Dave Angel Eco Warrior
3 years ago
Reply to  DanClarke

All three apply. Some are genuinely fearful, some are compliant but the vast majority are virtue signallers – especially in my local Waitrose.

8
0
isobar
isobar
3 years ago
Reply to  Dave Angel Eco Warrior

Same in mine! If you are searching for sane people it’s a completely different story in my local Lidl.

12
0
Dave Angel Eco Warrior
Dave Angel Eco Warrior
3 years ago
Reply to  isobar

Sadly not in my local Lidl. Unfortunately, I live in a mask-wearers utopia. It’ll be a long, slow process even to get to 50/50.

5
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Dave Angel Eco Warrior
Dave Angel Eco Warrior
3 years ago

TV quiz shows and the like don’t help with with their continued distanced contestants and guests, often with perspex screens between them, perpetuing the ridiculous notion a deadly disease is ever-present. It needs to stop but who will be brave enough?

19
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TheyLiveAndWeLockdown
TheyLiveAndWeLockdown
3 years ago
Reply to  Dave Angel Eco Warrior

If you want a bigger irony the Jackass film currently in the cinema thanks the covid team who’s help allowed them to film…

The stunts are VASTLY more risky than SARS2 is!

Last edited 3 years ago by TheyLiveAndWeLockdown
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mishmash
mishmash
3 years ago

Standard covidiot response (muffled through a mask) – ‘well go and tell all those people dying in hospital from covid they had more chance of being hit by a car.’

Last edited 3 years ago by mishmash
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MrTea
MrTea
3 years ago
Reply to  mishmash

To be fair most people killed by cars are classed as covid deaths.

3
0
acle
acle
3 years ago

After a couple of conversations this week I think this is almost hopeless, people are too far gone. I thought the infections after being double and triple vaxxed would wake people up, but they have been gaslighted with the ‘the vaccine was never meant to stop transmission’ nonsense. Another friend got a spam email, not even using her correct name, saying she had been exposed and should test, so she has been testing and panicking how she had been exposed. I try my best, gently gently to get them to think but nothing.

18
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TheyLiveAndWeLockdown
TheyLiveAndWeLockdown
3 years ago
Reply to  acle

yes, the vaccines were supposed to stop covid spread. yes, the “experts” told us so.
comment image

Last edited 3 years ago by TheyLiveAndWeLockdown
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TheyLiveAndWeLockdown
TheyLiveAndWeLockdown
3 years ago
Reply to  TheyLiveAndWeLockdown

https://fortune.com/2021/04/01/its-official-vaccinated-people-dont-transmit-covid-19/

Last edited 3 years ago by TheyLiveAndWeLockdown
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TheyLiveAndWeLockdown
TheyLiveAndWeLockdown
3 years ago
Reply to  TheyLiveAndWeLockdown

https://twitter.com/aginnt/status/1475193955704881152?s=20

2
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TheyLiveAndWeLockdown
TheyLiveAndWeLockdown
3 years ago
Reply to  TheyLiveAndWeLockdown

comment image

9
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John Dee
John Dee
3 years ago
Reply to  TheyLiveAndWeLockdown

If you wouldn’t accept a Werther’s Original from a dodgy old geezer, why on earth would you believe his utterances on public health?

1
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JayBee
JayBee
3 years ago

From the Quadrant article shared ATL a few days ago. This is what the sane people are up against now in this regard:

“Although the popular perception of COVID as a monster demographic cull is way off target, women have been found to be much more prone to exaggerate its deadliness. The opinion pollster, Kekst CNC, found that, in Europe in July 2020, the mean respondent estimate of the percentage of the total population believed to have been killed by the virus was 5 and 7 per cent whilst a stellar 9 per cent of all Americans (a staggering 30 million or so) were thought by the average American to have died because of COVID. These gross overestimates by the general public are some fifty to a hundred times higher than the actual death toll of 0.2 per cent of the total population (and substantially less than 0.2 per cent, given that official statistics methodologically inflate the real death toll by including the ‘died withs’ as well as ‘died froms’ in the COVID bodycount). Australia is truly off-the-wall hysterical — the average Australian believes the virus, if contracted, confers a 38 per cent death rate which is some 25,000 per cent higher than the actual overall Infection Fatality Rate of 0.15 per cent.
Whilst the perception and reality of the virus’ fatality rate are on different planets, the estimates by women and men are in different galaxies. The survey found that women in the UK, for example, on average, rated the COVID cull at a catastrophic 10 per cent of the total population, which was some three times higher than the mean estimate by British men.
Perhaps the sex difference in the perceived virulence of the virus is due to the more ‘caring’, ‘nurturing’ and ‘protective’ nature of women vis-à-vis men. Perhaps the psychological make-up of women sees them more likely to catastrophise and seek safety-first-ism.

14
0
Username1
Username1
3 years ago
Reply to  JayBee

Genuine laugh out loud when I read the Australian 38% IFR number! Imagine telling them, no it’s 3 in 2000 which is slightly different than your estimate of 3 in 8 people!

8
0
TheyLiveAndWeLockdown
TheyLiveAndWeLockdown
3 years ago
Reply to  JayBee

The death rate of JUST-covid is vastly lower than 0.2%

13
0
Arum
Arum
3 years ago
Reply to  JayBee

I think people aren’t being given ‘thinking time’ when answering these questions. I mean, if they thought for more than a second they would surely realise what a small percentage of their acquaintances had died, wouldn’t they?

3
0
MrTea
MrTea
3 years ago
Reply to  JayBee

‘Perhaps the sex difference in the perceived virulence of the virus is due to the more ‘caring’, ‘nurturing’ and ‘protective’ nature of women vis-à-vis men. Perhaps the psychological make-up of women sees them more likely to catastrophise and seek safety-first-ism.’

Perhaps women are just crap at maths?

2
-1
Judy Watson
Judy Watson
3 years ago
Reply to  MrTea

That’s not nice. I know plenty of chaps who are useless at simple sum

2
0
John Dee
John Dee
3 years ago
Reply to  MrTea

Or perhaps they’re more susceptible to all the ‘mansplaining’ from the Nudge Unit?

0
0
John Dee
John Dee
3 years ago
Reply to  JayBee

I often wonder how many people understand the concept of percentage, when I read of polls like these.
Would they do any better on questions like ‘Which composer wrote Beethoven’s Fifth Symphony?’

0
0
cornubian
cornubian
3 years ago

Another load of pro-vax propaganda shipped up for sceptics.

I started to read the research paper and straight away found that 85% of the injuries and deaths arising from taking the injections (which are usually falsely attributed to covid) were omitted from the study. I didnt bother reading any further.

How did they do it? By categorising people as uninjected until 14 days has elapsed.

But this is when 85% of the injection-related deaths and injuries occur.

Anyone getting the shot, and then being immunocompromised as a result and subsequently being hospitalised or dying is then conveniently shifted into the ‘unvaxed’ category.

Who in their right mind would want to push this propaganda as a bona fide study?

photo_2021-12-22_21-52-50.jpg
22
0
TheyLiveAndWeLockdown
TheyLiveAndWeLockdown
3 years ago
Reply to  cornubian

They do need a category for jabbed sperate from never jabbed.

But then it would as you say look ever so suspicious.

1
0
MrTea
MrTea
3 years ago
Reply to  cornubian

Covid is so dangerous that many unvaccinated people are suffering vaccine injuries, this has never happened before, fear the coof.

2
0
emel
emel
3 years ago

Given the billions spent by the government to scare the population half to death, I cannot see that this will ever end for a lot of people. Certainly not with a few articles about risk figures in publications that hardly anyone will read. And having just been to a supermarket where 80% are still wearing masks, there are years of this still to come.

16
0
Anonymous
Anonymous
3 years ago

Ethan Lindenberger (pic below) is an example of the type of “vaccinated” person that claims to live their lives in perpetual fear of the unvaccinated. Seemingly, his mother advised this youth to not take the “vaccines” because they were untrialled – but the brat went against her, and then denigrated and insulted her in the MSM.

But take a look at him. Would any normal dad be happy to see his eighteen-year-old daughter come home with a slack-jawed boyfriend like this excuse for young manhood? I think not.

He went against his mother because he sensed it would get him some attention. And it did, the MSM latched onto him and used him to promote vaccines among young people.

When compilers go out to conduct a survey on COVID-19 “vaccinated” people, the majority of those they’ll question will be of Lindenberger’s mentality – that’s because it’s mostly these types that questionably accepted the gene therapies.

When these types claim to be scared, they are being disingenuous. Many of them don’t actually have the cerebral facilities to feel scared. When questioned, these types immediately spot the opportunity for attention, and they realise that claiming to be sacred will get them more attention than if they said they were not scared.

First, being scared equals being a victim. And being a victim means the potential for lots of attention. And attention to Lindenberger types is like oxygen to the rest of us.

When his 15-minutes of fame fades away, Lindenberger will probably look elsewhere for attention. After parading their multiply “vaccinations” and boosters on social media, the go-to place for mentally-damaged modern youths like Lindenberger to play the victim and get attention, is the Transgender Industry.

Even some woke progressives are, of late, starting to get worried about the Transgender Industry. When the youths on social media announce to their friends that they are changing gender, they’ll suddenly get a massive burst of likes and attention from other users – and this is what life is mostly about for the retro-evolved modern White offspring.

This then quickly becomes like a snowball rolling down a hill; the youths become under pressure to continue onwards and take the hormone chemicals, and then eventually to bodypart removal.

Give Lindenberger and his smug smile another few months and he’ll probably be transitioning to female in order to keep the “likes” and thus the attention topped up – albeit, it will probably be easy for him, as he obviously already has a high level of oestrogen.

The big question is, what’s making so many modern White youths like this? Whatever the reason, the results of any survey conducted on cretins like this are not to be trusted.

Last edited 3 years ago by Anonymous
4
0
ElSabio
ElSabio
3 years ago
Reply to  Anonymous

The big question is, what’s making so many modern White youths like this? 

Bad parenting, bad food, bad teachers, bad media, bad politicos, bad…. The list isn’t endless, but it’s all bad.

4
0
TheyLiveAndWeLockdown
TheyLiveAndWeLockdown
3 years ago
Reply to  ElSabio

Estrogenic analogues

0
0
pre-Boomer Marine brat
pre-Boomer Marine brat
3 years ago

None of you seem to understand the role of the press in what’s happened — its effect upon what its Editors would call “the masses”.

To skip a rock across the pond (pun intended):
Walter Cronkite, Tuesday evening broadcast, February 28, 1968
The 2000 “murder” of Muhammad al-Dura (and the criminal conviction of Philippe Karsenty)
The “Jenin Massacre” of 2002 (which the Telegraph has never backtracked on)
JournoList – created in February 2007, when Barack Obama’s candidacy was announced

I began watching the press in the Eighties, after Vo Nguyen Giap published his memoirs. I found books which had been written regarding the beginnings Advocacy Journalism, which was then being taught in university-level schools of journalism.

I watched the Associated Press’ reporting on the Afghan and Iraq Wars, where deaths by vehicle accidents and ordinary illness were puffed up into “combat deaths”, where reports from Al Jazeera-Arabic stringers embedded with Muqtada al-Sadr’s Mahdi Militia and the Taliban were reported as straight news.

——————

The Fourth Estate believes it has the right to shape how the masses think and react.

You want to find a deep state? Don’t look in the faculty lounges. Boffins tend to be too hare-brained and ball-less to hold together that which is essentially Jacobin and Bolshevist.

Look for those who enter this-or-that profession because it offers a sense of “being noticed”, a sense of personal power. (What in hell do you think the by-line really means to most of those who own them?)

Thirty years ago, I did some electronics systems work in a major university’s College of Journalism. The bulletin boards were full of scrotally-inflated (some of them, literally) canards and boasts about what cap-J Journalism was doing to Change The World.

I subsequently found out, that department’s mood was quietly but aggressively anti-Establishment and its graduates were colossally ill-educated. One of those, a 20-something in the 90s, didn’t know what the significance of “Pearl Harbor” was.

How well do you think someone like that would understand COVID? … Science?

How excited do you think someone like that would be over making the masses believe “what they should”?

4
-2
Annie
Annie
3 years ago

If we were scared of covvie, we wouldn’t be unvaccinated.
If the jabberoids really believed in the snake oil,, they wouldn’t be frightened, either of covvie or of us.

13
0
peyrole
peyrole
3 years ago

Comments at the end of the original article are interesting. Almost exactly what you see here when you get our regular trolls visiting.
There are many people across the Western world who will never change their perspective of covid and what has happened and is still happening. Its not just fear and psyops, its deeper, its about a belief system.
It is increasingly applied to all major issues, its almost as if we have created two entirely different ways of looking at the world. They seem irreconcilable, one mainly based on rational and fact and one based on feelings and emotion. Its as if the brain functions have been deliberately separated.

6
0
Arum
Arum
3 years ago
Reply to  peyrole

It’s not rational in any way, it’s all about belonging. Or not (‘othering’ outsiders). I guess, the sort of emotions that people used to satisfy through church (or chapel) on Sunday, or still do through their support for football teams. Look at the psyops/nudges from the government: very quick to point out that the jab would protect others, even though it did no such thing. Or the repulsive Macron, if you don’t take this jab you are not a citizen – the examples are too numerous and depressing to mention.

7
0
pre-Boomer Marine brat
pre-Boomer Marine brat
3 years ago

I waited several months, watching the data, then got a pair of (non)vaccination shots last summer.

I am healthy, only 15 pounds overweight, on a very-high Vitamin D and statin intake. I don’t socialized in the form of pub-crawling. I’m cautious, but hardly paranoid. My resume has three years, back in the day, of biomedical engineering in a major teaching hospital.

But because I did get the two shots … I’m a stupid jackass who doesn’t know what the roll of white paper on the wall is for.

The same to you guys.

0
-7
MrTea
MrTea
3 years ago
Reply to  pre-Boomer Marine brat

‘then got a pair of (non)vaccination shots last summer.’

You know you fu[ked up, which is why you didn’t get the booster.

2
0
pre-Boomer Marine brat
pre-Boomer Marine brat
3 years ago
Reply to  MrTea

You obviously didn’t realize that my closing sentences meant I was deliberately and sarcastically trolling.

How does the hook feel in the side of your mouth?

0
0
BS665
BS665
3 years ago

It takes courage to live a free life. Those with irrational fears hide behind gov mandates and herd mentality to avoid seeming like cowards.

But if they have no braincells then conformity is the best response they can ever muster.

Modern vampirism consists of neither living nor dying in order to gain a fictive life of ‘eternal’ duration. Yet those who never live and never risk dying, may die inside even if they live on in the flesh. That is morbid pathological soullessness in a nutshell.

Last edited 3 years ago by BS665
7
0
WM
WM
3 years ago

Hopefully, in the future we will get some analysis of how much of the illness from this pandemic is literally just caused be fear. How many people were killed by hospital over reaction? How many people died from the increased stress of the massive social upheaval? And how many people died after contracting Covid just because they thought they would? The nocebo effect. What if the entire “pandemic” is just fear?

6
0
MrTea
MrTea
3 years ago
Reply to  WM

The first wave consisted mainly of frail elderly that were kicked out of hospital, stuck in care homes that coulddn’t meet their medical needs, had DNR orders imposed on them without their consent and were then put down using midazolam at the first hint they had a sniffle.
Boris et al created the first wave.

5
0
BillRiceJr
BillRiceJr
3 years ago

The odds a “healthy” child will die FROM Covid are even more microscopic than this author says. According to a UK study of every hospitalized child in the UK in the first year of the pandemic, 61 children died “with” or from COVID according to “official” UK statistics. After a comprehensive analysis of hospital records, the researchers concluded that only 25 of these children died from COVID alone. Furthermore, of these 25, they found that only six children did not have “severe” pre-existing or “life-altering” medical conditions. So only six “healthy” children died from COVID in the first 12 months of the pandemic.

The question then becomes what number of children in the UK do not have “severe” or “life-altering” medical conditions. My guess is that only about 1 in 50 or 1 in 100 children have medical conditions that are this severe. I concluded that there were roughly 11.8 million children in the UK who would be considered “healthy” (out of approximately 12 million children in the UK). I’m not talking about children with common ailments like asthma or diabetes but conditions that completely alter their lives. I then divided 6 deaths of these children into approximately 12 million “healthy” children to estimate the real mortality risk to healthy children.

I tried to make this point in the below article, which actually got published at an alternative news organization. My purpose in writing this article was to try to prove that children don’t have a “very low” risk of death from COVID; they have an almost non-existent risk of death from COVID. At least if they don’t suffer from severe pre-existing medical conditions, which 98 percent of children probably do not. The mortality risk among “healthy” children is actually about 0.0001 percent. In the UK about 1 in 2 million children who were “healthy” died from COVID in the first year of the pandemic.

https://uncoverdc.com/2021/07/30/for-majority-of-uk-children-covid-mortality-is-0-000/

Last edited 3 years ago by BillRiceJr
4
0
BillRiceJr
BillRiceJr
3 years ago
Reply to  BillRiceJr

I could have done another back-of-the-envelope type extrapolation from this UK study on children mortality “from” COVID. The authors found that 25 children did die FROM Covid in the first 12 months of the pandemic. Of this number, 19 did have “severe” and/or “life-altering medical conditions.

I admit that I really don’t know what percentage of children suffer from such severe medical conditions. Above I guesstimated that 200,000 UK children do.* This would be about 1.66 percent of all UK children. If this is close to the real number, we can say that the odds a child with these severe conditions would die from COVID would be 19 deaths divided by 200,000 people that fit this medical profile. This would mean that these children have a 1-in-1,052 chance of dying from COVID. But the real number would be higher as we know that every child is not going to contract COVID. Maybe the odds of a child with very severe medical issues dying from this disease might be 1 in 2,000. Such children maybe should get vaccinated, but even these children have a 99.95 percent chance of not dying from COVID.

*In trying to estimate what percentage of children do or might suffer from “severe” or “life- altering” medical conditions, I tried to picture students in my own high school graduating class. I only had 135 fellow students in my class and I knew every one of these students and had attended school with most of them for seven years. I think I would know if any of my classmates and friends WERE living with such extreme medical conditions as these type conditions would have been impossible to miss and probably kept these students out of school for large stretches of time. In my class, I can think of no such student … so I actually think my 1.66 percent estimate is conservative.

2
0
MrTea
MrTea
3 years ago
Reply to  BillRiceJr

‘So only six “healthy” children died from COVID in the first 12 months of the pandemic.’

Which makes it less dangerous than flu, and the flu had mysteriously disappeared.

4
0
BillRiceJr
BillRiceJr
3 years ago
Reply to  MrTea

For healthy children, the flu is definitely more dangerous. It kills more people and if you are sick with the flu – you are really sick. 50 to 80 percent of children with COVID won’t even have a symptom that slows them down.

1
0
BillRiceJr
BillRiceJr
3 years ago
Reply to  BillRiceJr

Speaking for myself, I’ve still never heard of an asymptomatic case of the flu.

0
0
Spirit of the wind
Spirit of the wind
3 years ago

The irony being if your healthy and vaccinated you’re probably more likely to have a heart attack caused by the dangerous vaccine than be harmed by a bout of the virus, then add to that the potential long term effects which are at the moment completely unknown.

Last edited 3 years ago by Spirit of the wind
2
0
MrTea
MrTea
3 years ago

‘and while the threat of Covid is greater for unvaccinated adults’

What is the threat to those exposed and recovered?

Sweet FA as far as I can ascertain.

Be exposed to the actual virus and gain full immunity or be exposed to the MRNA clot shots every few months, I know which I prefer.

2
0
Sforzesca
Sforzesca
3 years ago
Reply to  MrTea

I’ve often wondered that and right from the “beginning” of Clown world.
It’s almost as though TRPTB don’t want any publicity given to the concept of superior natural immunity.
I can’t for the life of me understand why the MSM/BBC don’t publicise this more, or even at all….

1
0
kate
kate
3 years ago

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=km5Em_xz8RI&ab_channel=JordanBPeterson
Jordan Peterson waking up a little bit on the Canadian situation.

0
0
4PureBlood
4PureBlood
3 years ago

In 2015, Dr Satoshi Omura was awarded the Nobel Prize for Medicine for his work that led to the development of Ivermectin, a drug that has helped millions of people. CommieTube deleted a video of him speaking about the benefits of Ivermectin because he doesn’t understand the science of Ivermectin!! Are you AWAKE YET? You can get your ivm by visiting https://ivmpharmacy.com

2
-1
pre-Boomer Marine brat
pre-Boomer Marine brat
3 years ago
Reply to  4PureBlood

And how much profit do you make?

These posts are deliberate advertising.

0
-2
Hugh_Manity
Hugh_Manity
3 years ago

“1,5 million € for a virologist who presents scientific proof of the existence of a corona virus.”

Easy money… One would think…

https://new.awakeningchannel.com/15-million-e-18-million-reward-for-a-virologist-who-presents-proof-of-the-existence-of-the-coronavirus/

2
0
marebobowl
marebobowl
3 years ago

“The threat of covid is greater for unvaccinated adults”. How on earth can anyone say this when the only people we are seeing getting covid in DEVON, are vaxxed. 70% of those hospitalised for covid, VAXXED. Sorry but the threat of covid is greater for the unvaccinated adults is extremely dangerous and misinformation! Israel now suggesting the four times vaxxed are suffering immune EROSION, hospitalised and DYING. Please wake up.

0
0
SimCS
SimCS
3 years ago

I’ve said from the start that the only govt success in the pandemic response is the cruel instillation of fear, and that it will be 10 times harder to dispel.

1
0
BillRiceJr
BillRiceJr
3 years ago
Reply to  SimCS

Once a faux Narrative is established it’s almost impossible to debunk it. That’s why faux or dubious narratives must be challenged from the very beginning – which of course has not happened. By design.

0
0
Mike
Mike
3 years ago

The persistent fear is also a testament to the success of the adoption of Orwell’s Newspeak. Redefine case, infection and death (in the sense of how it happened), and pile on the fear using rolling 15-minute doom throughout the day, using every MSM outlet. Then say that ‘the vaccine’ is the way out, so when ‘the vaccine’ arrives, it must be a vaccine.

Figures now show that of course it isn’t:
a. it didn’t take a decade or so to develop but was engineered in a laboratory,
b. it wasn’t made from the virus, and
c. it doesn’t work on the vaccine but the disease, which is why it has no effect on transmission.

And finally natural immunity to a respiratory virus is not what you thought it was – antibodies being formed in the airways – but antibodies formed in the blood by ‘the vaccine’, which is too late. But then if you don’t know what a virus is, and that humans (in this case) do the replication, not the virus, you wouldn’t know that either.

The proportion of the population still in fear of the virus is probably the same proportion who were never taught the correct use of any of these terms at any time in their lives, so now can be given any definition which suits the narrative. And the same proportion never reached a good standard of science at school or later, and were never taught critical thinking. Given the need for an untaught, uninformed majority for this story to work, you could even say the opportunities for this scamdemic were planned five or six decades ago.

1
0
BillRiceJr
BillRiceJr
3 years ago
Reply to  Mike

To control the world, you have to control the Narrative. To control the Narrative, you have to re-define the language and create new terms (like “our New Normal.”). This is all imperative as Orwell tried to show us.

0
0

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