98579
  • Log in
The Daily Sceptic
No Result
View All Result
  • Articles
  • About
  • Archive
    • ARCHIVE
    • NEWS ROUND-UPS
  • Forum
  • Donate
  • Newsletter
The Daily Sceptic
No Result
View All Result

Understanding the Covid Odds

by Will Jones
7 February 2022 1:59 PM
Understanding the Covid Odds

Perhaps the biggest barrier to ending the pandemic and its related interventions and theatre is the irrational fear that many people still have of the virus, a fear that ironically (though not surprisingly from a psychological perspective) grips the vaccinated much more than the unvaccinated. John Tierney in City Journal has crunched the numbers to help people come to a rational assessment of their risk.

It’s obviously not easy to give up fear of COVID-19, to judge from a recent survey showing that the vaccinated are actually more frightened than the unvaccinated. Another survey found that most Democratic voters are so worried that they want to make it illegal for the unvaccinated to leave home. But before you don another mask or disinfect another surface, before you cheer on politicians and school officials enforcing mandates, consider your odds of a fatal Covid case once you’ve been vaccinated.

Those odds can be gauged from a study by researchers at the National Institutes of Health, published by the Centers for Disease Control. They tracked more than one million vaccinated adults in America over most of last year, including the period when the Delta variant was surging, and classified victims of Covid according to risk factors such as being over 65, being immunosuppressed, or suffering from diabetes or chronic diseases of the heart, kidney, lungs, liver or brain.

The researchers report that none of the healthy people under 65 had a severe case of Covid that required treatment in an intensive-care unit. Not a single one of these nearly 700,000 people died, and the risk was miniscule for most older people, too. Among vaccinated people over 65 without an underlying medical condition, only one person died. In all, there were 36 deaths, mostly among a small minority of older people with a multitude of comorbidities: the 3% of the sample that had at least four risk factors. Among everyone else, a group that included elderly people with one or two chronic conditions, there were just eight deaths among more than 1.2 million people, so their risk of dying was about one in 150,000.

Those are roughly the same odds that in the course of a year you will die in a fire, or that you’ll perish by falling down stairs. Going anywhere near automobiles is a bigger risk: you’re three times more likely during a given year to be killed while riding in a car, and also three times more likely to be a pedestrian casualty. The 150,000-to-one odds of a Covid death are even longer than the odds over your lifetime of dying in an earthquake or being killed by lightning.

John goes on to note that “studies have shown that natural immunity is much stronger and longer-lasting than vaccine immunity”, and while the threat of Covid is greater for unvaccinated adults, the case for vaccine mandates is obsolete “now that it’s clear that vaccination doesn’t prevent reinfection and transmission”.

Worth reading in full.

Tags: Age-adjusted mortalityCovid deathsRiskVaccine efficacy

Donate

We depend on your donations to keep this site going. Please give what you can.

Donate Today

Comment on this Article

You’ll need to set up an account to comment if you don’t already have one. We ask for a minimum donation of £5 if you'd like to make a comment or post in our Forums.

Sign Up
Previous Post

“I Have No More Tears”: Athletes in Despair Over Covid Quarantine Conditions at Beijing Winter Olympics

Next Post

Putting Tights Over a Face Mask Makes it Work Better, Study Finds

Subscribe
Login
Notify of
Please log in to comment

Profanity and abuse will be removed and may lead to a permanent ban.

125 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments

NEWSLETTER

To view today's newsletter click here

To receive our latest news in the form of a daily email, enter your details here:

DONATE

LISTED ARTICLES

  • Most Read
  • Most Commented
  • Editors Picks
Does the Oxford Study on Post-Vaccine Myocarditis Underestimate the Risk?

Serious Heart Inflammation 44 Times Higher After Covid Vaccination, Nature Study Finds

27 June 2022
by Will Jones
Why is it Okay to Blame Right-Wing Culture Warriors for the Oslo Attack but not Radical Islam?

Why is it Okay to Blame Right-Wing Culture Warriors for the Oslo Attack but not Radical Islam?

28 June 2022
by Kathrine Jebsen Moore
Guardian Pushes for Return of Masks, Mass Testing and Quarantine

Guardian Pushes for Return of Masks, Mass Testing and Quarantine

28 June 2022
by Will Jones
“England Will Revert to Hunter-Gathering by 2040”: Met Office Leads Crowded Field in This Year’s Eco Crackpot Awards

“England Will Revert to Hunter-Gathering by 2040”: Met Office Leads Crowded Field in This Year’s Eco Crackpot Awards

28 June 2022
by Chris Morrison
News Round-Up

News Round-Up

28 June 2022
by Will Jones
“England Will Revert to Hunter-Gathering by 2040”: Met Office Leads Crowded Field in This Year’s Eco Crackpot Awards

“England Will Revert to Hunter-Gathering by 2040”: Met Office Leads Crowded Field in This Year’s Eco Crackpot Awards

45
Guardian Pushes for Return of Masks, Mass Testing and Quarantine

Guardian Pushes for Return of Masks, Mass Testing and Quarantine

31
News Round-Up

News Round-Up

34
Jeremy Vine Says the Vulnerable Should Stay Indoors Again and Shield

Jeremy Vine Says the Vulnerable Should Stay Indoors Again and Shield

13
Why is it Okay to Blame Right-Wing Culture Warriors for the Oslo Attack but not Radical Islam?

Why is it Okay to Blame Right-Wing Culture Warriors for the Oslo Attack but not Radical Islam?

16
Vaccine Effectiveness Drops Again, Now as Low as Minus-86% in Over-40s, Latest PHE Data Shows

Non-Covid Excess Deaths During Spring Vaccine Booster Campaign Reach 6,500

28 June 2022
by Will Jones
Red Pill vs Blue Pill; ‘Conspiracy’ vs ‘Common Sense’; Delingpole vs Young

Red Pill vs Blue Pill; ‘Conspiracy’ vs ‘Common Sense’; Delingpole vs Young

27 June 2022
by Dr James Alexander
Does the Oxford Study on Post-Vaccine Myocarditis Underestimate the Risk?

Serious Heart Inflammation 44 Times Higher After Covid Vaccination, Nature Study Finds

27 June 2022
by Will Jones
Climate Scientist Says Humans Cause Less Than 0.05°C of Global Warming and Warns of “Anarchy” From “Delusional” Net Zero Policies

Climate Scientist Says Humans Cause Less Than 0.05°C of Global Warming and Warns of “Anarchy” From “Delusional” Net Zero Policies

24 June 2022
by Chris Morrison
Why Healthcare Settings Should Drop Their Mask Requirements

Masks are Not Protective, Says Health & Safety Executive

24 June 2022
by Niall McCrae

POSTS BY DATE

February 2022
M T W T F S S
 123456
78910111213
14151617181920
21222324252627
28  
« Jan   Mar »

SOCIAL LINKS

Free Speech Union
The Daily Sceptic
  • Home
  • About us
  • Donate
  • Privacy Policy

Facebook

Twitter

Instagram

RSS

Subscribe to our newsletter

© 2022 Skeptics Ltd.

No Result
View All Result
  • Articles
  • About
  • Archive
    • ARCHIVE
    • NEWS ROUND-UPS
  • Forum
  • Donate
  • Newsletter

© 2022 Daily Sceptic.

Welcome Back!

Login to your account below

Forgotten Password?

Create New Account!

Please note: To be able to comment on our articles you'll need to be a registered donor

Already have an account?
Please click here to login Log In

Retrieve your password

Please enter your username or email address to reset your password.

Log In
wpDiscuz
You are going to send email to

Move Comment