We’re publishing a guest post by journalist Chris Morrison questioning whether rising CO2 levels really will lead to a catastrophic rise in global temperatures. Should we instead be worrying about the risks of falling levels of CO2?
Phew what a relief – along came humans just in time to rescue planet Earth by releasing a portion of carbon sequestered in the ground to finally put the brake on the carbon dioxide famine that was threatening to wipe out all living life forms.
Implausible? Well, the hypothesis is unproven, although it is promoted by many eminent scientists. But then the suggestion that small increases in atmospheric CO2 are leading to runaway global heating and climate breakdown is also an unproven scientific hypothesis supported by many eminent scientists.
What is certain is that the science is not yet settled, despite the increasingly successful efforts of neo-Marxist green activists, useful idiot journalists, here today-gone tomorrow politicians and grant-hungry, self-identifying ‘scientists’ to whip up a ‘climate emergency’ that can only be addressed by a massive increase in state intervention, control and power.
Earlier this year Steven Koonin, an Under-Secretary of Science in the Obama Administration, published a book titled Unsettled in which he noted that “the science is insufficient to make useful projections about how the climate will change over the coming decades, much less what our actions will have on it”.
He also noted that “rigidly promulgating the idea that climate change is ‘settled’ (or is a ‘hoax’) demeans and chills the scientific enterprise, retarding its progress in these important matters. Uncertainty is a prime mover and motivator of science and must be faced head on.”
Behind the current climate hysteria is the suggestion that placing more CO2 into the atmosphere by humans burning fossil fuel will cause global temperatures to rise since the gas traps the sun’s heat reflected from Earth. It is true that CO2 acts as a greenhouse gas, but only within certain bands on the infrared spectrum. This has led some scientists, notably Professor William Happer of Princeton University, to suggest that CO2 becomes “saturated” once it reaches a certain level. Most, if not all, the heat that is going to be trapped will have already been radiated back by the CO2 molecules evenly distributed in the existing atmosphere.
This suggestion certainly explains why there is little or no correlation between temperatures and CO2 levels on a current, historical or geological timescale. CO2 levels have risen steadily over the last 100 years despite temperatures rising from 1910-40, falling until around 1980, (remember the global cooling scare?) rising briefly for 20 years and then plateauing for the last two decades. Further back, CO2 levels seemed to have remained fairly constant through the warmings of 6,000 years ago and the Roman and Mediaeval periods. The subsequent ‘little ice age’ also registered no significant CO2 change. Since about 1820, temperatures and CO2 levels started to nudge upwards long before any human input could have been significant. Looking back further into geological time reveals little obvious pattern across nearly 600 million years. A massive jump in temperature in the Permian period occurred as the CO2 level fell. During the time of the dinosaurs, temperatures showed a fall as CO2 rose and then jumped higher as CO2 trended down.
The atmosphere is a chaotic place. Water vapour is also a greenhouse gas and is far more plentiful in the atmosphere than CO2. The natural carbon cycle along with countless other influences means it is probably beyond reasonable measurement. Climate models have been around for 40 years making guesses about global warming that are politically correct, but almost certainly factually wrong. Koonin is unimpressed with their efficacy, noting that they struggle even to replicate the past. In the absence of clear answers from climate science, almost all net zero political policy is based on the outputs of unreliable models.
CO2 accounts for just over 400 parts per million (ppm) of the atmosphere and some climate models assume global temperatures will rise by up to 6C if levels double. It is just that – an assumption. Given that it is actually a guess and some evidence that the greenhouse effect drops significantly once a base CO2 level is reached, the hypothesis is unproven and certainly not ‘settled’ with any credible, peer reviewed science.
What do know however is that hundreds of millions of years of life on Earth have drawn down much of the easily available carbon that existed in former times. Life has thrived during this period but gradually carbon has been sequested by dead plant matter and animals in coal deposits and various rocks including limestone and marble. Dr. Patrick Moore, one of the original founders of Greenpeace, notes that 99.9% of all carbon that has ever entered the atmosphere has been captured in this way. Over 500 million years, the amount of carbon in the atmosphere has fallen from 15,000 billion tones to just 850 billion today. The scale of carbon captured in this way is not disputed by other scientists who suggest 90% of carbon has been locked up over geological time.
The level of atmospheric CO2 is at an all-time geological low. If it goes much lower, say to around 180 ppm, plant and human life starts to struggle. But in just the last 40 years the small uptick in CO2 has led to an estimated 14% extra vegetation on the Earth, alleviating food shortages and famine in many parts of the world. It is unsurprising that Moore is relaxed about more CO2 in the atmosphere. Dr. Roy Spencer, the former Senior Scientist for Climate Studies at NASA, also notes that plants benefit from higher levels of CO2, adding “it is amazing how little there is in the atmosphere”.
All of which begs the question – shouldn’t we be talking about the risk of falling levels of CO2? The cost of net zero is almost unimaginable and the potential for economic and societal disruption on a global scale is the stuff of nightmares. Removing 85% of the world’s energy by banning fossil fuels within just 35 years and replacing them with unreliable and expensive renewables is pure fantasy. Wouldn’t it be nice if we didn’t have to do it?
Koonin’s book is important. The author still holds that CO2 is a potential danger. At one point he seems to accept that water vapour has saturation qualities but he is less keen to attribute those properties to CO2. At another, he suggests doubling CO2 in the atmosphere will lead to a 3C rise in temperature, a suggestion that lies at the heart of erroneous model forecasts. He draws attention to past abundant life on Earth in atmospheres with up to 10 times current CO2 levels. But he explains that they were “different plants and animals” – which as a “dinosaur ate my homework” excuse will just have to do.
But the book is the work of an intelligent scientist who realises that the days are drawing to a close when all debate on the science backing net zero can be crushed by saying it is settled. As with many independent commentators, he is particularly contemptuous about attempts to keep the hysteria alive by cherry picking bad weather events. It might take the mainstream media led by the BBC, Sky and the Guardian a little longer to come around, but expecting citizens to accept massive changes to their ways of life on the basis of patently false doomsday predictions only works for so long – as we’re starting to see with Covid. Just before his death, Clive James discussed climate scares and noted that after a while people switch over to watch Games of Thrones, “where the dialogue is less ridiculous and all the threats come true”.
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Plod are basically out of control and are effectively making up the law as they see fit. This cannot continue. Yesterday also saw the arrest of Tommy Robinson for having the nerve to be out celebrating his twelve year old daughter’s birthday – vid posted earlier by Mogwai.
Once again if No10 wanted to stop this it could but clearly the Hindu poodle is under orders to allow these actions. Fishy is very much a guilty party in all this.
A single man peacefully displaying a poster which simply confirms government protocols on Hamas is breaking the law how exactly? And the terrorist sympathisers who attack this brave young man and attempt to do him injury are not even cautioned let alone arrested. Britain’s finest eh?
But if the intention is to stimulate unrest and mistrust in institutions, all going as planned it seems.
Absolutely.
“Hindu poodle”!! PMSL…..
Actually, due to the amount of footage of this incident posted online it was easy enough for people to identify the nutter that instigated the assault on Niyak. Bet he wishes he’d worn his tea towel now. His mate seems to have also been identified in the comments section;
”Abdul Madi an employee of Pinnacle Wealth is allegedly the person seen assaulting @GhorbaniiNiyak
in London yesterday.
His profile has been taken down from his company’s site.”
https://twitter.com/DaveAtherton20/status/1766890580452249864
In past times when decency and standards of behaviour mattered this Madi thug would be in receipt of the wagging finger on his next day at work. In today’s climate of course it is a raging certainty that he will have his race card polished and ready to go as soon as he hears his boss announce…
“Madi, I’d like a word. In my office.”
You cannot polish a turd. Madi in a suit is still a third world islamist conducting himself as a, well, as a third world islamist in Londonistan.
Ticket back.
“it was easy enough for people to identify the nutter that instigated the assault on Niyak.”
I look forward to the Met announcing that a warrant has been issued for his arrest.
This is what we need more of for these entitled scummy crims who think they’re above the law. Justice served Indian style. Pretty sure there’d be a lot less shoplifting if staff fought back and had zero tolerance, like this guy;
https://twitter.com/PicturesFoIder/status/1766864137345212455
Terrific post Mogs. That will be one “converted” shoplifter.
Wonderful! All piss and vinegar until the whupping starts, then he suddenly cares. I’m glad he capitulates and then got several more licks just to drive home the point. Nobody else is likely to try that place.
I think it was a proportionate (and funny) response, but concerned if Plod try to prosecute the shopkeepers, which would be a travesty. A fine line between chastisement and ABH.
Yep, don’t mess with Mr Singh!
I like how the guy behind the counter was warning them against it then did a full 180. 
Well what do these scumbags expect will happen? Shopkeepers going to just sit back and watch their goods be leisurely stolen in the time it takes for the police to show up? I’m all for being proactive and sending a message that’s more effective than a few hours spent in a cell.
Deleted.
‘facing accusations of double standards’ ?
Eh?
We’re long past that.
An Islamist mayor who heads a wokist police stasi.
Allo allo allo.
What’s appenin ere.
We ave to be politicly crrect young fella mi lad.
That means allowin the baddies to ave their say.
An we can’t be seen to be opposin em!
So please allow us to put these cuffs on.
And ere’s the back of our nice van.
…
Oh what he’s a foreign who recognises police brutality? Oops, come on lads we’ve messed this one up
Nuffin to see ere, move along, move along!
Appalling double standards by the utterly woke and useless Plod.
Recall their response to anti-lockdown protests and the vigil, for Sarah Everard – wading in, batons flailing.
Say something nasty on social media, or make some stickers the elite don’t like and they’ll be down on you like a ton of bricks.
Anti-Semitic marches? OK
Been burgled? Tough luck.
Muslim grooming gangs? Nothing to see here.
I despair.
Spot on. Criticise a mentally ill retard tranny and off to Belmarsh. Rape a dozen white girls…nothing. Support Muslim terrorists publicly, or wave your bait and tackle at the no pride low IQ parade…nothing. Protest against Muzz terror or the Rona fascism, off to prison esp if you are white.
No wonder, really…..
The Mayor of London was given a direct mandate for policing in London in 2011, as part of the Police and Social Responsibility Act. As such, the Mayor is responsible for setting the strategic direction of policing in London through the Police and Crime Plan.
A number of powers are devolved to MOPAC, which is led by the Deputy Mayor for Policing and Crime, Sophie Linden. This includes the delivery of efficient and effective Met policing, management of resources and expenditure (MOPAC is the functional body of the Greater London Assembly that sets the policing budget, holds the Commissioner to account and in partnership discusses progress against the Police & Crime Plan, assesses the strategic budget position and key risks to delivery).
The new London Policing Board, is a new element to the Met’s governance structures.
The London Assembly also has a role in providing the formal check and balance on policing in London. The assembly’s Police and Crime Committee is charged with examining the work of MOPAC and matters of policing interest in London, and in doing so publicly scrutinises the Deputy Mayor for Policing and Crime on a regular basis, alongside the Commissioner.
Post consultation with the Commissioner, the Deputy Mayor recommends to the Mayor an annual policing budget for the Met.
Linden’s entire career has been spent in politics. From 1992 to 1997, she was a researcher for David Blunkett MP. Following the Labour victory at the 1997 general election, she became a Special Adviser to Blunkett when he was Secretary of State for Education and Employment. She was in the role from 1997 to 2001, following Blunkett as Special Adviser when he was appointed Home Secretary.
Linden moved to become a Labour councillor within the London Borough of Hackney, for the Dalston Ward, from 4 May 2006 to 10 June 2016. During this period, she worked for Bell Pottinger political communications, and unsuccessfully sought selection as Labour’s Prospective parliamentary candidate for Hampstead and Kilburn prior to the 2015 general election.
In 2016, she was appointed by the new Mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, to be the Deputy Mayor for Policing and Crime.
‘When William was our king declared
To ease the nation’s grievance,
With this new wind about I steered,
And swore to him allegiance;
Old principles I did revoke,
Set conscience at a distance;
Passive obedience was a joke,
A jest was non-resistance.
And this is law, I will maintain,
Until my dying day, Sir,
That whatsoever king shall reign,
I’ll be the Vicar of Bray, Sir.’
Good work. Thanks.
Gotta love the wording of this: A man was arrested and, after CCTV footage had been reviewed, de-arrested as if this would somehow neutralize the original event.
Our polices are cowards and a disgrace.
These latest shenanigans are adding to the feeling of a steady growing seething anger in the ,as yet, silent majority of the British public that’s only just under the surface! This feeling applies to most of the downtrodden western populations who are quite rightly feeling ignored.
History shows us these bottled up emotions lead to public unrest, Tptb will reap what they have sowed!
O/T How has Khan avoided criticism for the Forest Gate police station fire?
It was a new building, under 20 years old I would guess. Did it not have fire detection or sprinklers?
Khan is not only responsible for the police but also the fire brigade.