We’re publishing a guest post by our in-house doctor, formerly a senior NHS medic, about the data released this afternoon. Does it support the claim that there’s a tsunami of Covid hospital admissions heading our way? Not really…
I have been asked to give a brief update on some interesting data released this afternoon. I hope readers will forgive a certain festive levity on my part and not consider it too inappropriate. For all I know we may be on the brink of a catastrophe. All I can say for sure is that it didn’t happen today.
Since Professor Whitty predicted at the Downing Street press conference on 15th December that ‘Records will be broken a lot in the next few weeks’, we have been glued to the numbers even more tightly than before. On Thursday afternoons a couple of large data packets are released by the NHS. They contain some surprising information.
Many expert colleagues have been predicting portents of imminent doom on the airwaves in the last week or 10 days. I have heard terms like ‘tsunami’ and ‘avalanche’ used to predict the coming wave of Covid admissions. Being a humble clinician and not an expert epidemiologist, I defer to my specialist colleagues on these points.
Graph 1 shows the extent of the avalanche so far in London, the epicentre of the Omicron wave in the U.K. I have graphed admissions from the community with Covid in London from the December 1st so readers can see for themselves the severity of the catastrophe.
I have been unable to find a quantitative definition of ‘avalanche’ in terms of Covid patients. What we can observe is that the seven-day moving average has increased from 90 patients per day on December 1st to 178 patients per day on the 21st. So about double in three weeks. If it carries on like this, by mid-June of 2022 there will be 91,136 new patients admitted with Covid every single day and the entire population will be in hospital.
There are about 20 acute general hospital Trusts in London, so at the moment about nine Covid patients per day each. Its fair to say that the admissions are not spread evenly across the capital. Most admissions are concentrated in the East and South-East of London. This may have something to do with lower percentages of vaccination in those areas. Anyway, this is clearly the foothills of the impending deluge which will certainly be along soon.
Graph 2 shows Covid inpatients across all hospitals in England as the Omicron avalanche makes its way through the nation with its fabled rapid transmission rate. Readers will observe that numbers have risen a little, mainly due to increases in London, but we are not yet at the peak seen earlier in the year. My expert colleagues tell me that we will shortly have more than the 26,000 COVID hospital patients than in January of 2021. It’s just a matter of time.
Regular readers will recall that in previous waves the serious pinch point was in ICU because resources in high dependency medicine are quite limited and difficult to expand quickly. Graph 3 shows the ravages of the Omicron wave so far. It is important to note that there is a lag between a patient catching Covid and becoming ill enough to require an ICU admission. But that’s just a temporary lull while Omicron gets itself together.
So far there has been a fall in ICU cases in England during December, and there are currently fewer cases in English ICUs than there were in August. ICU Covid bed occupancy in the stricken capital city has fallen from 210 a week ago to 196 this evening.
No one should take comfort from the observation. The tsunami will certainly arrive in the next week. Possibly two. Or maybe three. Professor Whitty says it is “nailed on”, so it will certainly happen, right?
The really interesting data released today was from the Primary Diagnosis spreadsheet. Readers may remember that this distinguishes between people suffering from acute illness with Covid (blue line) and patients admitted for other reasons but with an incidentally positive Covid test (orange line). Graph 4 shows the data for London as the Omicron wave devastates the capital.
Readers will note an increase in cases from December 1st. The fascinating observation is that incidental cases are rising faster than acute cases – the ratio between the two continues to drop. What this means is that although we are seeing more people with positive tests in December, a relatively smaller proportion of them are actually ill with Covid. The rise in patients actually ill with Covid in hospital has so far been relatively modest. Of course, that will not last, according to the SAGE modellers. By this time next week the NHS will be inundated with thousands of desperately ill people with Omicron.
Some doctor friends of mine say Graph 4 shows that Covid “is the passenger, not the driver”. I think they mean Covid isn’t the main reason people are in hospital – but they are the inferior and slightly dim sort of doctors that just treat patients and can only see what is going on at the present time. They are not clever experts in epidemiology and public health who can predict the future. We watch this space with great interest in the next few weeks as the avalanche inevitably picks up speed and overwhelms the NHS.
Graph 5 is particularly interesting and a bit ‘busy’ so I will talk you through it slowly. It shows a comparison between patients admitted from the community with acute Covid in the orange bars and patients contracting Covid in hospital plus admissions in the blue bars. The grey line is the ratio again. Graph 5 shows that Covid admissions have gone up substantially since the beginning of December, but that Hospital-acquired infections have gone up a lot more. This fits with what the experts have told us – that Omicron is a lot more transmissible. It seems to be more transmissible in hospital than in the community. I wonder why that might be?
Graph 6 shows the same data across the whole of England and the trend is even more pronounced than in the London data. Overall, in England, admissions from the community with Covid are flat. However, the number of people acquiring Covid in hospital has increased. I wonder if this is what my expert colleagues mean when they refer to an ‘avalanche’ of Omicron?
As you will have heard on the media, it’s very early days in the evolution of the Omicron variant in the UK. We can assess data from South Africa and several other European countries, all of which show that so far the hospital admission rate is far lower, the requirement for ICU care much less and deaths virtually zero from the new variant compared to the Delta variant. But we cannot extrapolate from those countries to make an predictions about the U.K., right? In fact, all the U.K. data I have seen has a remarkable consistency in suggesting that Omicron is less likely to put patients in hospital, especially if they are vaccinated, less likely to require ICU care, causes a shorter hospital stay and has a much reduced risk of death.
On the other hand, my expert colleagues caution against complacency. I am informed that the British population is different from all the other human groupings so far attacked by Omicron. Britons are older, sicker, fatter and more prone to viral infection than people in South Africa, despite a higher level of vaccination. In fact, the new deadly and highly transmissible Omicron variant can escape vaccine protection. So, it is essential that everyone immediately gets vaccinated.
Various colleagues have taken to describing the Panglossian optimism about the new variant being less dangerous than Delta as “Hopium”. (Some doctors find that pun amusing.)
We are assured that the NHS might still be overwhelmed in the coming weeks, hence it is essential that the entire population stay indoors for the foreseeable future until the danger has passed. Not staying at home is immoral and means you are a bad person. The expert doctors will let people know when it is safe for them to come out. This may take some time.
People experiencing symptoms similar to an upper respiratory tract virus (runny nose, sore throat, headache, etc.) may actually be suffering from Covid rather than an inconsequential seasonal cold.
So, readers must not under any circumstances fall into the trap of complacency. Some of you may be completely unaware that you have contracted this deadly disease, so you must take regular tests to check. That runny nose and tickly cough could be the highly transmissible Omicron variant and you must notify the authorities immediately. Those police officers knocking on your door are protecting the public from hazardous sneezing. Anyone you have spoken to in the last few days must stay at home in case they infect others, lest the ‘remorseless logic of exponential spread’ overwhelm our beloved NHS. If you fail in your obligations as a citizen to protect others, you are an enemy of the state and a danger to society.
Because one can’t be too careful these days.
Next week the tsunami will arrive for sure.
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Let’s hope others follow her example. A Labour MP on World at One today was complaining that many of his constituents were having to use food banks and could not afford to pay more tax. As that is true we should not be handing over any money to foreign governments.
When Starmer told VP Vance that we have had free speech in the UK for a long time, I waited in vain for someone to ask Starmer if that was compatible with the very new concept of Non Crime Hate Incidents and if so, how?
I know the supine journalists failed to hold Starmer to account but I guess pissing off guests might not get them invited back.
When your own people are well cared for and happy, you can consider helping other countries if you have a surplus.
We borrow to give to others, and our own people suffer, just insane.
I assume that She, of the wild hair, will be persuading 40% of the Civil Service staff in that Ministry to leave as I presume they will be unnecessary.
The free speech remark by Starmer is a bit rich with Mr T Robinson in solitary confinement.
Also in the Telegraph from Stephen Pollard: “Good riddance to Anneliese Dodds, the minister without sense…”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2025/02/28/good-riddance-to-anneliese-dodds-the-invisible-minister/
“…In a Government of non-entities, Dodds was perhaps the most invisible of all. It is perhaps unfair to pose of Anneliese Dodds’ resignation the oft-cited philosophical question: if a tree falls in a forest and no one is around to hear it, does it make a sound?”
And a commenter adds, “It’s people like Dodds that give non-entities a bad name.”
Starmer is far right!
The Left will eat itself.
Only the plant-based left. Otherwise, they’d have to stop calling themselves vegan.
That was the most half hearted resignation I have ever seen. As International Development Minister it was down to her her to fall on her sword to placate the far left. She will be back in a top job before you know it. That International Man of Misery, Kier Starmer will find all the money for their stupid overseas spending projects from other departments, probably in a circular route back from defence.
“International Man of Misery” love it!
So will her trough money fall?
“Ultimately, these cuts will remove food and healthcare from desperate people…”
How perceptive of Ms Dodds. She wouldn’t by any chance be referring to the people of the UK by any chance would she?
Oh, silly me.
Who?
Astonishing to think that this idiot was Shadow Chancellor before Rachel from Accounts.
https://www.conservativewoman.co.uk/the-climate-scaremongers-weekly-roundup/
Here’s £100 billion of savings identified.
Paul Homewood at TCW.
And another £22bn in the pipeline for wholly pointless carbon capture.
Brief summary:
“Dear 2TK, I am really upset that I am being forced to take my snout out of this lovely trough. Why me, when I know you all still have your own? It’s just not fair”.
Yours Ms Gummidge
Could be the start of something beautiful. Perhaps the neocon rats all over the West will leave their sinking ship of their own volition. More or less the entire British political class is neocon including the dissident parties. Probably more likely that the Brits will try to go it alone as they do seem to like playing last man standing. It is a disgusting position, being the head of the ministry of regime change.
Frederick Edward rightly exposing Bozo for the despicable mass murderer that he is. This utterly corrupt piece of shytr is as Frederick Edward blodly states
https://www.conservativewoman.co.uk/the-unflushable-boris-johnson/
“Given his track record – with the blood of thousands on his hands – together with his central role in covid and his obsession with the civilisation-ending perversity of Net Zero, one can only wish that Boris Johnson would crawl into the nearest foxhole and never return.
As one of the unflushables, however, there is no doubt that he will keep coming back.”
A better idea would be to cut the so-called foreign aid budget by 100%. If people living in the UK want to support charitable causes in foreign countries, they can always contribute money voluntarily. We’re presently at the point where recipients of so-called foreign aid claim they’re owed ‘reparations’ for taking it. So, let’s take this burden away from them.
Utterly agree. Splot the saving between defence and care for the old. £8 billion for defence and £8 billion for Elderly Care, should make a big dent in that problem.
DOGE the rest of the civil service budgets, too.
Down with this state!
And for a more comical yet equally eviscerating look at the Uniparty’s attempts to ensure that thousands more lives are lost in Ukraine here’s John Ellwood at his best…
https://www.conservativewoman.co.uk/your-bunter-needs-you/
“The KemiKorps: Not wishing to miss the show and inspired by the impressive tactics of Rommel’s Afrika Korps in World War Two, the Tory leader hopes to boost the flagging fortunes of her once-great party by forming a fighting force of young men from her ancestral home, West Africa. Because of her party’s immigration policies there are tens of thousands of Nigerians, Ghanaians etc in the UK who are available to volunteer.”
I’m sure our new arrivals cannot wait to prove their allegiance to their new homeland especially with the new leader of the KemiKorps.
What an unbelievably stupid woman.
Having risen without trace, the only time she makes the headlines is when she flounced out in a huff.
She so obviously hates the British people…
I’m sure she will be sadly missed.
Oh, how she will be missed. Having identified a pressing need for aid I am sure she will resign nd go overseas to some god foresaken place to assist.
Or not.
It is sad for the Brits who don’t go along with the agenda and feel temperamentally opposed to it. Russia has said that it is happy to take western refugees from neoliberalism. There was a secret clause in that 100 year agreement and pledge from Starmer to Ukraine which involved mineral rights. At that point in time it was the perfect opportunity to pre-empt Trump. The deal included complete British control over the Black Sea ports. That is why the British media went crazy when Trump suggested that Zelensky might be a dictator.
Good riddance to another evil,
Communist feminist who thinks foreign men are more in need of our taxes than out own men and women.
Nasty, middle class A-hole
And who is such a traitress that she would put our people’s defence behind aid to lazy, workshy foreigners.
They do love to eat themselves don’t they?
Read the Futurist manifesto if you want to understand where women like this one are going to end up. It is a beautiful document and a huge influence on the German national socialists. On a spiritual level the Trump movement is essentially an antidote to the horror of the sacrifice carried out in broad daylight in November 1963 on a Friday morning. The plotters hoped that it would lead into terminal decline of America and the age of the Antichrist. But in a sense the opposite has happened given just how much this event opened minds to everything else. There are deep spiritual links between Trump and Kennedy.
I’m praying for Almighty God to divide Starmer’s house, for a house divided cannot stand.
This is the beginning.
We do need to beg for direct intervention. Even if he just creates a new enclave in the desert and calls it New England. With taverns and bawdy houses. Perhaps in such an environment the best will wake up. I suggest that we approach the American embassy within the next few weeks and try to come to some sort of arrangement. Because the reality of staying here is simply too grim to contemplate.
Who she ?
Cares only for people in far away places, while voting to impoverish the old and needy here. As she has failed to instigate audits on the money she’s happily sending to these places, how much of it does she think reaches its intended target.?
She’s no great loss…
Nil desperandum. It is rumoured the role might be filled with a v close friend of 2TK, who can share those long, lonely journies to foreign parts together.
The inability for these inept politicians to see around the next corner and assess the consequences is quite staggeringly stupid.
If these politicians want to really see what has gone wrong with governance in Western countries, then need just look in a mirror and stop pointing fingers elsewhere.
Maybe they should be made to prove where that £13 billion Foreign Aid goes to, probably not much goes to those who need it, or should receive it.
Someone once quoted that Foreign Aid is where you take money from the poor people of a Rich country (taxpayers) and give it to the rich people of a poor country – might have been Ron Paul.
They can always find a school they’ve built somewhere, and maybe a hospital – but what these poor countries need are debt forgiveness and access to cheap reliable energy.
Those would be a start!
I understand some Foreign Aid is used to grease the palms of certain people to facilitate trade deals and overseas orders, but like USAID, lets have a full audit.
Dodds and co are peas in the same pod. Left and woke. High tax and anti white. Open borders and endless wastage on illegals. Good riddance. 500+ more to go.
Dear Anneliese
Greed is the belief you are entitled to other people’s money to use for your own purposes.
With respect to your greedy self, you believe you can take my money without my consent using the coercive powers of the State, to disperse in foreign aid to people I don’t know, or I don’t care about, or I don’t like so that you can feel warm and fuzzy about being caring and compassionate.
It’s easy to be generous with other people’s money, innate in Socialists, but if you care so much for others, use your own, and now you have gone, don’t come back.
Your ever!
A Taxpayer.