The U.K. Health Security Agency, the successor organisation to Public Health England, is about to publish its first detailed analysis of Omicron which suggests it causes milder disease than the Delta variant. This will be helpful to those of us trying to persuade the Prime Minister not to impose any further restrictions, including half the Cabinet. The Telegraph has more.
The omicron coronavirus variant is causing a milder disease than the delta strain in most Britons, government scientists are expected to say today.
The U.K. Health Security Agency is set to publish real-world data on the severity of the disease, which is expected to say that more people are likely to have a mild illness with less serious symptoms.
The political site Politico reported the findings this morning. It says that while omicron seems milder overall, the UKHSA has found it is not necessarily mild enough to avoid large numbers of hospitalisations. The experts have found evidence that for those who do become severely ill, there is still a high chance of hospitalisation and death.
Given that the transmissibility of omicron is very high, there is the chance that even though it is milder, infections could soar to the point that large numbers end up in hospital .
On Wednesday, the health minister Gillian Keegan said there were 129 people in hospital with omicron and there had been 14 deaths. Asked on Sky News whether a circuit breaker lockdown could happen after Christmas, she said: “We are waiting for data on the severity, we’ll still have to wait to see where we land on that, but we can’t really say, you know.
“What we’ve said is up to Christmas we’re fine looking at the data, looking at the numbers we have at the moment, but, of course, we have to look at where this virus goes, where this variant goes, so we have to look at that data.”
Boris and his health ministers have consistently said they’ll be guided by the evidence about Omicron and won’t make a decision about whether to impose tighter rules after Christmas until they have more data. Well, now they have, and it suggests the SAGE modellers have got their predictions wrong – again. You can follow updates on the Telegraph’s live blog and read the scoop in Politico here.
MailOnline has also written about the forthcoming UKHSA report and points out that official figures yesterday revealed that Covid was mentioned on 764 death certificates registered in England and Wales in the week to December 10th – 4% down from the previous week and the lowest level since October. It also has an interview with a medical professor who says it looks like Omicron daily infections are flatlining.
Professor Paul Hunter, an infectious diseases expert at the University of East Anglia, told MailOnline that Mr. Johnson had made the right decision as he slammed the modelling.
He said: “It’s not all doom and gloom, it does look like Omicron has stopped growing. The numbers over the last few days seem to have plateaued and maybe even be falling.
“It’s a bit too soon to be absolutely sure about that, but if it is the case Boris Johnson will breathe a sigh of relief. We have to be a little bit careful because it’s only a few days.
“And because we’re getting closer to Christmas there is nervousness that people may not come forward for testing because they don’t want to test positive and miss out on meeting relatives.
“Omicron overtook the other variants around December 14 so most of any changes from there on would be down to Omicron. So if it was still doubling every two days that would have shown and we should have been at 200,000 cases yesterday and certainly more than 200,000 cases today.
“But the fact it has been around 91,000 raises the point that it might actually have peaked. But it will probably take until at least Wednesday to get an idea of a day that is not affected by the weekend. But I am more optimistic than I was a few days ago.
There were 1.49million tests conducted today which is down from 1.56 million last Wednesday, but Professor Hunter said the “relatively small drop” in testing would not hide a virus truly doubling every two days.
Latest hospital figures show there were 847 Covid admissions on December 17, up only 7% on the previous week. There were a further 172 Covid deaths today, up 14%.
In epicentre London the wave also appears to be slowing after 20,491 cases were recorded in the last 24 hours, down slightly on yesterday’s tally of 22,750. It also marked the sixth day in a row cases have been above 20,000.
Worth reading in full.
Stop Press: The self-isolation period has been cut from 10 to seven days, yet more evidence that the authorities know Omicron is milder than previous variants. The Telegraph has more.
Stop Press: A new study by the Scotland-wide Early Pandemic Evaluation and Enhanced Surveillance of COVID-19 suggests people who catch Omicron have a two-thirds lower risk of hospitalisation compared to people who catch Delta. The Telegraph has more.
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I distinctly remember Chris Whitty telling us back in March 2020 that for most people (80% was the figure he mentioned ISTR), infection with SARS-COV-2 would result in a mild illness, with few or no symptoms.
(Of course that was before he was dragged off to an empty East London warehouse and given the Ipcress File treatment)
So omicron is EVEN MILDER than that?
Inventor of mRNA vaccine platform: omicron is a Christmas present to us
That was when he was telling the truth, before he was re-educated by a fat man that spent a few days in hospital.
You are correct….
here he is, on the very rare occasion he spoke anything resembling truth:
https://mobile.twitter.com/CharlotteEmmaUK/status/1356679458053361667
so what are the hospitals being overwhelmed with then
Obese nurses off “sick” doing their christmas shopping
and obese pen pushing management
Farage pointing out the reality…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FxRvsrYGbX4
I don’t think they are. It is not unusual for statistical anomalies to make one hospital crowded and for excess patients to go to another nearby which isn’t, especially in Winter. In normal times this provokes no comment. In these times…
What sort of treatment do the hospitals provide? All of the effective treatments are banned.
NHS advice to me when I had a bad case of covid at home was take paracetamol and drink lots of water. No other treatment offered or suggested.
I see they’ve approved some antiviral drugs now (new, novel, expensive ones of course), but by the time they’re available the actual pandemic (as opposed to the pingdemic of symptomless ‘cases’) will be over.
I give better advice than that! Lemsip, steam inhalation (maybe just over a coffee mug/aforementioned lemsip), pine needle tea, ivermectin (if you can get it), colloidal silver, prayer, prop yourself up in bed, don’t let what you cough up be recycled, and breathe in to 3/4 lung capacity, hold for three seconds, and breathe out slowly; this will get you to cough stuff up from the lungs (or get something called ‘air physio’). Have a fitbit or similar and watch bp, oxygen saturation, and temp. Take some exercise, and hot baths. Lots of fluid, preferably hot. Black/ red fruit or apple for the quercetin. Vitamins C, D, and zinc.
Anyone tempted to take Molnupiravir needs to read the results of the clinical trials first. Trialsitenews has posted several with analyses.
NHS Default position and advice. Take a drug that Interferes with your brains ability to control increases and decreases in your temperature. Why not unblock your nose while you’re at it. You might be lucky enough to pick up a new virus while you’re recuperating!
I know, remarkable isn’t it? For two years no one talks of anything but covid, google covid treatment, or go to NHS Direct – nothing. I took lemsip, ivermectin and jack daniels. I might not have needed the ivermectin had my wife not substituted aldi’s lemsip for the real thing.
I would advise against Jack Daniels and recommend Eduadour Single Malt. Let´s not put a strain on the pound.
Stop testing and running off to A&E every time you get a drippy nose ffs.
Take a Lemsip or a hot toddy and hit the pit for a couple of days.
hit the pints till its gone – lots of fluids full of vitamins and makes you feel good
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-2681639/Mines-pint-Full-vitamins-high-fibre-low-sugar-good-hair-benefits-beer.html
I’m not sure the fat pig dictator will be “breathing a sigh of relief”. If he doesn’t lock down and force-“vaccinate” he’s going to have Gates and Schwab breathing down his neck.
Michael Barrymore’s swimming pool is more dangerous than the Omicron cold bug.
Thanks to the unique way in which it’s funded our ONS no longer seems able to provide stats broken down by vax status, but Canada does. take a look at this from Ontario (https://covid-19.ontario.ca/data/case-numbers-and-spread). Raw numbers are even more fun, but to placate the whiners these figures are infections per hundred thou.
The vaxed are catching omicron at DOUBLE the rate of unvaxxed. That turd Welby should take a look at this.
Del Bigtree interviews British Mathematician & Professor of Risk Management, Norman Fenton who reveals ONS data is nonsense.
https://www.bitchute.com/video/tZtwiepFX8fL/
Correct me if I am wrong, but I think you have derived the rate for the vaxxed by adding the rates for partial vaxxed to the rates for fully vaxxed. This calculation is only legitimate if the size of the partially vaxxed population is roughly the same size as the size of the fully vaxxed population. In Ontario that is far from the case: 80% of eligible population are fully vaccinated, 5% partially vaccinated. I attach a chart with the rates for fully vaxxed and partially vaxxed separated out. You will see that they are both below the unvaxxed rate – although all three are very close in the last few days. This is in line with the widely accepted assessment that two vaccinations gives little protection against infection by omicron, although it would be interesting to see the same figures stratified by age.
On second thoughts you can’t add two rates together to get a combined rate whatever the relative sizes of the populations! You can average them if they are roughly the same size.
You’re right, I did, I see that error now. Thanks. So in fact, as near as can be judged, the vaccines are simply making no difference….
Agreed. we already knew that a double dose is not very effective against Omicron.
However, before drawing conclusions, we should stratify for age (and other confounding factors). For example, young people are less likely to be vaccinated and also less likely, other things being equal, to get symptomatic infection.
So the NHS now can’t cope with a bad case of the cold against which millions have been forced to take 3 vaccines? I know so many people who have had surgeries cancelled over this charade. Time for a public enquiry to find out what these idle twats are actually doing all day. It’s certainly not treating the sick.
Bearing in mind that evidence has no impact on the PM as the whole thing is political, showing him virus data is pointless, you might as well turn up with a snowglobe. What frightens Boris is if the sheeple are starting to learn. I’m not talking about the possibilities of ovine aviation, but rather that they stop wearing pointless masks, give up on endless jabs of something or other and realise, hang on, this has never been worse than flu. No, the cheese and wine d*ckhead class are only afraid of polls. Of course, if the MSM did it’s job for just one day…….
The MSM is doing its job. It just isn’t the job they tell us it is.
Looks like the Telegraph is preparing the ground (or “rolling the pitch”, as the politicians like to say) for a reverse ferret by the PM about more restrictions.
Something positive for your day: https://youtu.be/0xQ_OTilgEM
“What we’ve said is up to Christmas we’re fine looking at the data, looking at the numbers we have at the moment, but, of course, we have to look at where this virus goes, where this variant goes, so we have to look at that data.”
What they are looking for is not where the virus or the variant goes, they are looking for ways to distort the true data to support the narrative, because they know that if they carry on the previous basis it will fall apart.
Anyone paying attention to SA and Denmark knew this would be the case. Anyone monitoring the 95% antibody levels knew this. Anyone understanding that far more important than antibodies (which O can avoid to some extent) is T and B cell response which are not impacted by Omicron knew this.
as Professor Gupta said on Planet Normal,
vaccination and prior immunity doesn’t stop people having the virus enter their system. It’s not a Star Trek force field. But it means that once inside the system, it gets swiftly kicked out unless too much drift has occurred (usually over years) or immune system has decayed or is compromised. There is only ever a small percentage (between 5-20%) who might be at risk of illness (not the same as a positive test). Omicron is behaving exactly as expected by anyone without a vested interest in this chaos. So infections will soon peak if they haven’t already as available population to be infected and transmit dries up, illness will soon peak and then crash, and best of all the more dangerous Delta is starved of kindling and likely will disappear. You prefer having no viruses but of all the options available, Omicron is likely the best possible.
Now, it is time for those 14 deaths to be given details: age, prior infection/vaccination, underlying health, and whether they contracted Omicron in hospital or not. Global health leaders need that, since we are claiming the largest Omicron death count. Wonder how fast we get that information?
If they aren’t releasing it, we know why!
If it showed that all the deaths were 20-year-old marathon runners with no comorbidities they would be shouting it from the rooftops!
“… we prefer having no viruses… “
We would all prefer having no viruses but that is where I feel we have gone wrong on this issue. We don’t and never will live in a world without viruses or other pathogens – bacteria, fungus, poisonous plants, insects, bitty animals. My feeling is, not meaning you DrC, that people have forgotten this, or indeed never knew it.
So they fall back on ‘big numbers’ argument. But its not applicable. this virus overwhelmingly creates serious illness in elderly with commaorbidities, there is a limited group under threat. A mild variant will cause few problems to the rest however many ‘get it’. Which of course some of them are now inventing the notion that this mild variant might magically be dangerous to the young without a scrap of evidence.
They’re back to using an idea they haven’t used since early in the first lockdown: No one will ever become resistent enough to Sars-CoV2 that he won’t get seriously ill sooner or later, ie, like untreated HIV, it’ll eventually kill everyone, just much quicker. And the only recourse is keep vaccinating people as fast as you can plus eternal lockdown, with a lockdown summer holiday possibly being thrown in, if the people deserve one.
The underlying problem is here that the invisible Xi in the room must still either admit that his strategy cannot work or it must be repeat-implemented everywhere else forever.
End of November, Savage Jabber was promising that the renewed mask mandate would be abolished again if omicron turned out to be no worse than delta. Assuming the data above is correct, it isn’t (to absolutely no one’s surprise). That’s why they’ve made up the But it’s so much more transmissible that it might still overwhelm the NHS! bit they’ve been repeating ever since.
They test for the flu since they’ve never isolated Covid-19. Which makes me wonder how they can tell there is a delta variant. They never isolated the virus but they use a test to show the damage of a solution does on monkey kidney cells then show the cellular debris as proof of the virus. So, they can use this method to claim an UNENDING! amount of variants. A lot of cancers and “viruses” are probably just different forms of parasites. Since the tests can’t differentiate between cold and flu and covid then doesn’t that mean ivermectin cures both the cold and the flu? Welcome to “they’ve been lying to us our entire lives about everything”. Get your Ivermectin while you still can! https://ivmpharmacy.com
Is anybody apart from me actually reading the Daily Update? Yesterday the reported number of positive tests for Scotland was 2500, down from 6800 the previous day and one of the lowest figures since the start of the Delta wave. Now this may be an error, but surely someone in authority should comment (or were they all too busy cancelling Hogmanay).