There follows a guest post by Daily Sceptic reader Graham Williams (a pseudonym), a maths graduate and by profession an analyser of business plans, models, forecasts and funding requests. He is not impressed with the latest Government pandemic modelling.
I have just read the SPI-M consensus statement paper of September 8th, which appears to be at the heart of the recent stories about possible future lockdowns etc. This paper seems to be as big a load of negative, hyperbolic scaremongering as all the ones they have issued so far this year (February at the start of the roadmap, March, April, June and July).
In paragraph two they state: “SPI-M-O groups have reflected on their modelling of Step 4 of the Roadmap, and despite unexpected falls in cases in mid-July 2021, these scenarios can still be used to consider the future autumn and winter trajectory.”
They appear however not to have reflected that were it not for the unforecast Delta variant their modelling since February would have overstated the position of deaths, cases, and hospitalisations by June 21st by around 1,000%. Even with the rise caused by the variant, their forecasts remained hugely overblown, but they still continue to model with the same flawed methodology.
After paragraph two there follow about 18 paragraphs of largely unsubstantiated waffle with a few facts thrown in.
One of the facts is that R is currently (i.e., at the date of the paper) between 0.9 and 1.1, so broadly flat. The covering page to the report says: “These are not forecasts or predictions… They are based only on the observable trends and data available at the time the projections were produced.”
Had the modelling actually done what it said on the tin, project observable trends, then it would have been in line with their own medium-term projection of September 8th, which shows a fairly flat trend for September, even if arguably the base they have used is a bit low.
Instead of doing this, SPI-M’s modellers produced three scenarios based on different R numbers. Of course, it appears to be hardwired into their models that R can never be less than or equal to one, so despite suggesting the modelling follows the recent trajectory of 0.9 to 1.1, the numbers they use are 1.1, 1.5 and 2.0.
Lo and behold, when you run those through the models you get a rapid increase in numbers, leading to the 7,000 hospital admissions a day clickbait headline numbers on the 2.0 scenario.
Even discounting that clickbait modelling, SPI-M’s refusal to countenance an R of less than one and only consider a range of 1.1 to 1.5 means that in only a week since they prepared the paper the numbers are already significantly adrift (forecast hospital admissions 850-950, compared to an actual seven day rolling average of 724) and the discrepancy will likely widen as the recent drop in case numbers feeds through.
It may be that some of their predictions come true, but the document reads as an attempt to scare the largely innumerate members of the Cabinet into imposing further restrictions rather than a balanced piece of advice.
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stnuc…. the lot of em
.
But …. maybe they are expecting deaths from pathogenic priming (which they will not admit, of course) and creating bogus numbers to suit their narrative. Then these bogus numbers will be ‘proved’ to be correct.
The government’s latest modelling.
That sums it up for me.
Complete and utter Bollox.
“were it not for the unforecast Delta variant their modelling since February would have overstated the position of deaths, cases, and hospitalisations by June 21st by around 1,000%. “
Crap assumptions on top of crap data. ‘R’ values again quoted, although they re total fiction.You cannot analyse this sort of computer gaming shite.
I managed to make a reasonable forecast of autumn mortality last year that was massively more accurate than the SPI-M crap – without resorting to any up-your-arse model unreferenced to reality.
Do just cut to the chase in these articles without treating the garbage seriously when there are no grounds to do so.
Their modelling creates an excuse to impose restrictions and enforce the useless ‘vaccines’. The insanity continues… and the masses just accept it!
It’s thge other way rund, Government has decided on another lockdown and a return to muzzles and SAGE are required to provide the “evidence.
The fda just voted against providing boosters. This despite mr. Biden demanding people to take the booster “just take it”. It will be offered in a few more days in the USA. I note the JCVI in this country does not recommend a booster at the time, and yet guess what, they are being offferredto those who would like one.
it would be nice to hear, a little more often, from the great Dr. Johnny Ioannidis, Stanford University epidemiologist. His number crunching and data is always worth a look. Instead we keep having to listen to scaremongering from sage, Boris and sleepy Joe. Anyone else had enough of that?
Project Fear know no bounds
One of many problems is that they should not be putting in the R factor in as a constant but rather it should be calculated by the model depending on other conditions such as season, vaccinations (I know that is a joke,) and so on. Their models are like the models that people used to have that the Sun went around the Earth, but not as accurate at predicting what would happen.
There’s an assumption that the models incorporate all variables that can affect the outcome, this is exactly what has happened with climate models.
The models referred to relating to a geocentric solar system actually couldn’t predict the course of events, it finished up with each planet having epicycles as it went round the Earth in the centre, this had to be true as the science was settled! Copernicus and Galileo were the sceptics of their day, the former didn’t publish until he knew he was dying and the latter faced the inquisition.
Well worth a watch to get the big picture.
https://odysee.com/@Corona-Investigative-Committee:5/Reiner-Fuellmich-Introduction-English_BestCut:e?fbclid=IwAR17Y7l-6Y-ZMNaqwH6GvV74kcq-VfhCRrRIvMAgVJUWJyhS5qGq8t-jWVQ
The most damning thing about this is that it’s completely unsurprising.
Reiner Fuellmich is right when he says they are losing and so threatened measures and lies becoming more absurd (if that’s possible). Join people for the people on telegram – March, protest, use cash, refuse,
This is pure ass covering/predictive programming for the deliberately created epidemic of ANTIBODY DEPENDENT ENHANCEMENT which they know is coming because that is the whole point of the jab rollout – TO CREATE ADE.
It’s very simple – 2002 to 2012 they tried very hard to create Coronavirus vaccines but they discovered that they only lead to death and worsened disease via ADE which is where the vaccine reconfigures the immune system in a way which is negative and causes all manner of issues including death.
Fast forward to the Corona scam and they have now tricked 2 billion plus people into taking a Coronavirus vaccine when the truth is they are naturally immune and have absolutely zero risk from this disease. Professor John Ioannidis puts the survival rate of COVID19 at 99.97% for the under 70s – nearly all of which have been tricked into taking the death shot.
Why would they run a scam of this nature where the whole endgame is to inject people with Coronavirus vaccines when they know 100% for sure that Coronavirus vaccines cause ADE which causes death and severe disease? It’s a genocide, and the COVID19 story provides PLAUSIBLE DENIABILITY for their blatant crimes.
Robert Kennedy on why mRNA vaccines could never receive FDA approval (ADE dangers)
https://www.bitchute.com/video/2zm5qa2wAuPa/
Dr. Lee Merritt All the Animals Died from ADE
https://www.bitchute.com/video/0GLonaOiXA39/
Informed consent disclosure to vaccine trial subjects of risk of COVID-19 vaccines worsening clinical disease
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/ijcp.13795
Global perspective of COVID-19 epidemiology for a full-cycle pandemic
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/eci.13423
BREAKING NEWS ! Prof Dr John Ioannidis Stanford University On Real Data On Coronavirus Pandemic Apr 30, 2020
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=btvDL6kIDsA
Status of COVID-19
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/high-consequence-infectious-diseases-hcid#status-of-covid-19
Am not quite sure what this means in terms of future government policy, but interesting that the ‘behaviour experts’ (AKA control freaks) are pissed off at apparently being sidelined.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/sep/17/no-10-accused-of-sidelining-behaviour-experts-on-latest-covid-measures
Something needs to be done about the government’s handling of this scamdemic. Its reached criminal proportions and heads have got to roll now! The incessant lies and overstating of cases and PCR tests are an insult.