There follows a guest post by Daily Sceptic reader Graham Williams (a pseudonym), a maths graduate and by profession an analyser of business plans, models, forecasts and funding requests. He is not impressed with the latest Government pandemic modelling.
I have just read the SPI-M consensus statement paper of September 8th, which appears to be at the heart of the recent stories about possible future lockdowns etc. This paper seems to be as big a load of negative, hyperbolic scaremongering as all the ones they have issued so far this year (February at the start of the roadmap, March, April, June and July).
In paragraph two they state: “SPI-M-O groups have reflected on their modelling of Step 4 of the Roadmap, and despite unexpected falls in cases in mid-July 2021, these scenarios can still be used to consider the future autumn and winter trajectory.”
They appear however not to have reflected that were it not for the unforecast Delta variant their modelling since February would have overstated the position of deaths, cases, and hospitalisations by June 21st by around 1,000%. Even with the rise caused by the variant, their forecasts remained hugely overblown, but they still continue to model with the same flawed methodology.
After paragraph two there follow about 18 paragraphs of largely unsubstantiated waffle with a few facts thrown in.
One of the facts is that R is currently (i.e., at the date of the paper) between 0.9 and 1.1, so broadly flat. The covering page to the report says: “These are not forecasts or predictions… They are based only on the observable trends and data available at the time the projections were produced.”
Had the modelling actually done what it said on the tin, project observable trends, then it would have been in line with their own medium-term projection of September 8th, which shows a fairly flat trend for September, even if arguably the base they have used is a bit low.
Instead of doing this, SPI-M’s modellers produced three scenarios based on different R numbers. Of course, it appears to be hardwired into their models that R can never be less than or equal to one, so despite suggesting the modelling follows the recent trajectory of 0.9 to 1.1, the numbers they use are 1.1, 1.5 and 2.0.
Lo and behold, when you run those through the models you get a rapid increase in numbers, leading to the 7,000 hospital admissions a day clickbait headline numbers on the 2.0 scenario.
Even discounting that clickbait modelling, SPI-M’s refusal to countenance an R of less than one and only consider a range of 1.1 to 1.5 means that in only a week since they prepared the paper the numbers are already significantly adrift (forecast hospital admissions 850-950, compared to an actual seven day rolling average of 724) and the discrepancy will likely widen as the recent drop in case numbers feeds through.
It may be that some of their predictions come true, but the document reads as an attempt to scare the largely innumerate members of the Cabinet into imposing further restrictions rather than a balanced piece of advice.
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They’re just doing the withdrawal slowly because haste would be an admission. Sheds a light on the insane world of modrn finance and investment though. Huge protests in Japan because they have developed facilities for the production of this Satanic product. I suppose if you’ve got some money it is a good time to bet against this given the factories that are springing up all over the world. You can get your turbo cancer and then get an mRNA shot to treat it. Isn’t that just neat and tidy. We have so little undestanding of anything we don’t even know the extent of the unknown. There are strong warnings in our teachings about tinkering with things at this level. You can’t tamper with the code especially when you don’t understand it at all.
And where were all these doctors back in 2021? Actually, scratch that. They should have noticed something was off in 2020. Because then they would have known in advance that in no realm could these rushed out, novelty jabs have possibly been deemed a) safe, b) effective or c) necessary. What happened to all that medical knowledge and clinical expertise? Why were special tests suddenly necessary when nothing of this sort had previously been required to diagnose a respiratory virus?
”Premeditated Ignorance is the quality or condition of deliberate unawareness. It is when people do not know because they do not want to know. For, if they did know, they would have to take responsibility for the knowledge; and, they would thereby be required to renegotiate their identity and relinquish the status, privilege and authority that are derived from the false order of knowledge. At the very least, they would be compelled to leave their comfort zone.”
Now imagine how many lives might have been saved if medical professionals had only engaged those big brains, remembered why they became doctors in the first place and challenged the government’s policies and propaganda campaign.
https://x.com/JacquiDeevoy1/status/1809202046182007057
“Where were all these doctors back in 2021?”
To be fair, many were probably signing the Great Barrington Declaration and various petitions and so on at the time, were blogging on the vaccines, or were being threatened in their employment, or by the new laws, or had been suspended.
The censorship machine was, and is, pretty efficient.
I haven’t signed the Accord, but posted my first 1700 word blog giving reasons not to take it on 02/12/2020. But I’d already been expressing doubts for a few months before that, and kept at it throughout 2021. According to the stats, a few thousand people across the world read it.
Yes indeed, some brave professionals did stand up and speak out, risking persecution or worse; an ‘Andrew Wakefield experience’, but it boils down to critical mass at the end of the day. Not enough did. It’s always easier to censor or threaten into silence the odd lone voice or the minority, but harder to ignore a sizeable collective.
While the public dutifully banged their pots and pans in appreciation of the hard working and heroic doctors and nurses, while they ignored their own signs of ill health and stayed home ”to protect the NHS” with bovine-like obedience ( because trusted public figures and ”experts” in a position of authority told them on the BBC news it was necessary ), those same doctors and nurses were prescribing and administering inappropriate and contraindicated treatments to vulnerable and trusting sick patients or withholding simple medications such as antibiotics, all with deadly consequences, while simultaneously preventing relatives from entering the hospitals to be with their dying loved ones, but also to stop the public from witnessing the deserted hospital departments, because they then might catch a glimpse of what staff were really doing when they weren’t ‘busy’ not treating patients, but rehearsing those all important and elaborate dance routines, because they needed to be just right before uploading them to TikTok, after all.
The rest is history but this scam based on lies went on for more than three years and the buck stopped with the frontline staff and their negligence and mistreatment. Their unwillingness to call upon their own not insignificant knowledge of evidence-based practice/medicine. Sure, not all are guilty as hell, but the vast majority certainly are. Cowardice, complicity and conformity are probably what most demonstrated, but the effects to the general public were exactly the same as if pure malice were behind it all. People who went into hospital to get better still died needlessly. The medical establishment, more than any other profession, let down the public badly and with disastrous consequences but we’re meant to accept they were ”just following orders”? They were holding people’s lives in their hands. And the worrying thing is, would they do it all again? Because the risks of them speaking up remain exactly the same should there ever be a ‘next time’.
You can’t blame people for feeling aggrieved or losing trust, especially if they’ve lost loved ones. And the internet is full of receipts;
https://x.com/OlooneyJohn/status/1808911244184752216
Thankyou for pointing out the Medazolam democide through NG163 End Of Life Pathways. If their life wasn’t over they seemed to have hastened their demise with those drugs but also through dehydration from many testimonials. Some say too big to be a conspiracy but Stanley Milgram shows how obedience to authority can be kill.
Yes, Milgram called it early on. Frightening what people are capable of when absolved of personal responsibility. It does creep me out to think how many literal psychopaths we’re rubbing shoulders with in our day to day lives, and how many of those are working in the medical/nursing professions. Best not to go there.. There’s some notable people been doing impressive detective work around the whole Midazolam scandal for a while now. Johnathan Engler being just one. More here if you’re interested;
”Some people were onto the midazolam / euthanasia story from very early on.
Although I was aware of the noise around Jacqui Deevoy’s one-hour 2021 documentary “A Good Death”1 as well as the data showing increased midazolam orders, it is to my chagrin that I didn’t pay enough attention to this story early enough, choosing to believe a variation of one of these singly or in combination:
However, I don’t believe either of those propositions anymore, largely because of the weight of evidence I have now seen, which amounts to strongly suggesting the following:
In summary, I believe the weight of the evidence suggests that the lives of large numbers of people worldwide were ended prematurely as a result of the administration of certain medication.
The way in which those directives came about is, at this time, unclear.
Was this an emergent event which was the result of some sort of societal mass delusional psychosis, one which involved the entirety of the healthcare profession buying into the story of the imminent arrival of a novel deadly virus, such that the application of these protocols was regarded as saving people doomed to die from a terrible death by “easing them on their way”?
Or was it part of a co-ordinated process by which a pandemic event was essentially staged?”
https://sanityunleashed.substack.com/p/did-testing-and-euthanasia-protocols
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Brilliant Mogs. Thanks
I was,and was threatened with dismissal for refusing the booster after I had a seizure after my 2nd AZ vaccination. I have kept the letter. The threat was only lifted 2 weeks before I was to lose my job. Never shirked face to face consultations either.
Listen to Neil Oliver and his call not to demonise people who, albeit belatedly, have woken up.
People on our side are always asking, how could this happen, were they ignorant or complicit etc. The shoddy truth is that very few people think about anything. They might be quite accomplished within their discipline but this tells you nothing about their actual capacity to comprehend. This tendency to take the line of least resistance, the cowardly way out has I think been engendered by a culture of indulgence that took off in the 1950s but was a concommitant of industialisation from the beginning. Carl Sagan said of Johannes Kepler, that he preferred the harshest of realities to the dearest of illusions. Can you say that about many of the people that you encounter these days? Surely they are more defined by risk aversion.
The attack on the chemical and electromagnetic fields is becoming impossinle to ignore. You will feel it in your joints or your breathing or energy levels. The intensity is increasing. The trains weren’t running by me the other day because so many people had called in sick. This malaiase isn’t some mild summer cold. It represents amongst other things a new nasty attack of the spike protein, they call it FLERTS, just look it up. The point is that the malaise will become nastier and the gaps between infection will become shorter. This represents major debilitation. If you are of a martial aspect you might feel that you have been deliberately weakened, There is no way out of this situation. That is what they have done to you.
It is no joke it results in confusion and brain fog. I have never had these symtoms before. It is interesting to watch yourself as a clumsy and less competent human being. The nervous system is somehow distanced. I admire it from the perspective of a warrior in the tenor of our times. The symptoms become more vague and you are up against the tendency to just carry on as normal. Trust me if it weakens your brain you won’t be carrying on as normal.
If you do feel weak I would advise transferring all of your strnegth to your lower body and then just move from the hip until you are revitalised. It is a much more powerful way of moving anyway if you can get the hang of it and the lower body is less vulnerable to tinkering, This time that we are moving into will be one of inexplicable debilitation. Be forewarned about it. Imagiine them as some aliens shooting the maximum intensity beam in order to win. We have to show them that humankind is made of stronger stuff.
You keep posting stuff Stiff.
The truth will out.
There is great strength in the movement of the Europeans towards upper body strength but you need to know the limits.
True…You must also squat, so long as you can do so safely.
Can you imagine being in a sub-optimal state and having to fight a fierce and determined enemy. That should be your major concern.
Something sexual came to mind but I know you are being serious and it is a serious subject.
A massive round of applause to UK Column for a a shout out for the DS article:
“The Devastating Charge Sheet Against Pfizer”. Dr Carl Heneghan.
Whoops.
https://youtu.be/6JJFlf43WRE?si=a_1FwHMiVZgTgd4A
Well done to all the signatories.
As for bringing back trust, as far as I’m concerned that ship sailed a long time ago. I’ve always looked after my own health and that policy has now been significantly strengthened. I doubt I will ever use the NHS again.
Re. The YT link at the bottom of the article, spot the NHS advert for the product on offer! From a personal perspective, I’m glad I declined it when it was offered back in 2021; pretty unlikely to change my mind now.