Health Secretary Matt Hancock revealed some statistics in the Commons yesterday about the Delta (Indian) variant: out of 12,383 Delta variant positive tests in the U.K. up to June 3rd, 464 went to emergency care and 126 were admitted to hospital. Of those admitted to hospital, 83 were unvaccinated, 28 had had one jab and three had had both doses.
Keen-eyed readers will spot that 83+28+3 is not 126 – there are 12 hospital admissions unaccounted for. A Department of Health source told the Financial Times‘s Sebastian Payne that nine of these “don’t match to a vaccine status at present” while three were within 21 days of their first dose so didn’t count in any category.
Can we use these figures to make some crude calculations of the severity of the Delta variant?
126 hospital admissions out of 12,383 positive tests gives a 1% hospitalisation rate, or 99% not needing hospital. How does this compare to the Alpha (British) variant?
Last week Public Health England (PHE) released a study claiming the Delta variant had around double the risk of serious disease or hospitalisation compared with the Alpha variant. However, according to the ONS, during the winter peak when the Alpha variant was dominant, around 2% of the population of England was infected with COVID-19 and around 0.04% of the population was being admitted to hospital with the virus each week, giving around 2% of British variant infections leading to hospital admission. This is double the rate for the Indian variant on Hancock’s figures – and furthermore, Hancock’s figures use positive cases, not an ONS population infection estimate, which would reduce the hospitalisation rate for the Indian variant further.
However, what we don’t know, because these are just statistics delivered verbally in Parliament not a proper report (more science-by-press-release), is how many of the 12,383 positive cases are too recent to have led yet to hospital admission. We also don’t know how elderly or vulnerable those in the sample of 12,383 are, or what impact the vaccines are making on the hospitalisation rate.
The figures are of limited use as well in estimating the effectiveness of the vaccines against hospital admission with the Delta variant. That’s because we don’t know what proportion of the 12,383 infected were vaccinated, so we can’t control for that key factor. Having said that, the three versus 83 hospital admissions for fully vaccinated versus unvaccinated seems encouraging.
Overall, this data is very limited. Nonetheless, the fact that the hospitalisation rate even among positive cases is so much lower with the Delta variant now than with the Alpha variant in winter is further evidence that the latest scariant is nothing to fear.
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stnuc…. the lot of em
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But …. maybe they are expecting deaths from pathogenic priming (which they will not admit, of course) and creating bogus numbers to suit their narrative. Then these bogus numbers will be ‘proved’ to be correct.
The government’s latest modelling.
That sums it up for me.
Complete and utter Bollox.
“were it not for the unforecast Delta variant their modelling since February would have overstated the position of deaths, cases, and hospitalisations by June 21st by around 1,000%. “
Crap assumptions on top of crap data. ‘R’ values again quoted, although they re total fiction.You cannot analyse this sort of computer gaming shite.
I managed to make a reasonable forecast of autumn mortality last year that was massively more accurate than the SPI-M crap – without resorting to any up-your-arse model unreferenced to reality.
Do just cut to the chase in these articles without treating the garbage seriously when there are no grounds to do so.
Their modelling creates an excuse to impose restrictions and enforce the useless ‘vaccines’. The insanity continues… and the masses just accept it!
It’s thge other way rund, Government has decided on another lockdown and a return to muzzles and SAGE are required to provide the “evidence.
The fda just voted against providing boosters. This despite mr. Biden demanding people to take the booster “just take it”. It will be offered in a few more days in the USA. I note the JCVI in this country does not recommend a booster at the time, and yet guess what, they are being offferredto those who would like one.
it would be nice to hear, a little more often, from the great Dr. Johnny Ioannidis, Stanford University epidemiologist. His number crunching and data is always worth a look. Instead we keep having to listen to scaremongering from sage, Boris and sleepy Joe. Anyone else had enough of that?
Project Fear know no bounds
One of many problems is that they should not be putting in the R factor in as a constant but rather it should be calculated by the model depending on other conditions such as season, vaccinations (I know that is a joke,) and so on. Their models are like the models that people used to have that the Sun went around the Earth, but not as accurate at predicting what would happen.
There’s an assumption that the models incorporate all variables that can affect the outcome, this is exactly what has happened with climate models.
The models referred to relating to a geocentric solar system actually couldn’t predict the course of events, it finished up with each planet having epicycles as it went round the Earth in the centre, this had to be true as the science was settled! Copernicus and Galileo were the sceptics of their day, the former didn’t publish until he knew he was dying and the latter faced the inquisition.
Well worth a watch to get the big picture.
https://odysee.com/@Corona-Investigative-Committee:5/Reiner-Fuellmich-Introduction-English_BestCut:e?fbclid=IwAR17Y7l-6Y-ZMNaqwH6GvV74kcq-VfhCRrRIvMAgVJUWJyhS5qGq8t-jWVQ
The most damning thing about this is that it’s completely unsurprising.
Reiner Fuellmich is right when he says they are losing and so threatened measures and lies becoming more absurd (if that’s possible). Join people for the people on telegram – March, protest, use cash, refuse,
This is pure ass covering/predictive programming for the deliberately created epidemic of ANTIBODY DEPENDENT ENHANCEMENT which they know is coming because that is the whole point of the jab rollout – TO CREATE ADE.
It’s very simple – 2002 to 2012 they tried very hard to create Coronavirus vaccines but they discovered that they only lead to death and worsened disease via ADE which is where the vaccine reconfigures the immune system in a way which is negative and causes all manner of issues including death.
Fast forward to the Corona scam and they have now tricked 2 billion plus people into taking a Coronavirus vaccine when the truth is they are naturally immune and have absolutely zero risk from this disease. Professor John Ioannidis puts the survival rate of COVID19 at 99.97% for the under 70s – nearly all of which have been tricked into taking the death shot.
Why would they run a scam of this nature where the whole endgame is to inject people with Coronavirus vaccines when they know 100% for sure that Coronavirus vaccines cause ADE which causes death and severe disease? It’s a genocide, and the COVID19 story provides PLAUSIBLE DENIABILITY for their blatant crimes.
Robert Kennedy on why mRNA vaccines could never receive FDA approval (ADE dangers)
https://www.bitchute.com/video/2zm5qa2wAuPa/
Dr. Lee Merritt All the Animals Died from ADE
https://www.bitchute.com/video/0GLonaOiXA39/
Informed consent disclosure to vaccine trial subjects of risk of COVID-19 vaccines worsening clinical disease
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/ijcp.13795
Global perspective of COVID-19 epidemiology for a full-cycle pandemic
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/eci.13423
BREAKING NEWS ! Prof Dr John Ioannidis Stanford University On Real Data On Coronavirus Pandemic Apr 30, 2020
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=btvDL6kIDsA
Status of COVID-19
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/high-consequence-infectious-diseases-hcid#status-of-covid-19
Am not quite sure what this means in terms of future government policy, but interesting that the ‘behaviour experts’ (AKA control freaks) are pissed off at apparently being sidelined.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/sep/17/no-10-accused-of-sidelining-behaviour-experts-on-latest-covid-measures
Something needs to be done about the government’s handling of this scamdemic. Its reached criminal proportions and heads have got to roll now! The incessant lies and overstating of cases and PCR tests are an insult.