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The Daily Sceptic
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Lancet Paper Flagging Up Risk of Reinfection is Garbage

by Toby Young
21 March 2021 12:00 PM

We’re publishing an original piece today by Mike Hearn, the former Google software engineer who is the author of this site’s most read piece. (He used to contribute under the name Sue Denim, but has since come out.) It’s a review of a recent paper in the Lancet purporting to show that 20% of Danes infected in Denmark’s first wave became reinfected in the second wave. As Mike reveals, this conclusion was based on assuming the false positive rate of the PCR test is much lower than the researchers had any reason to assume. Here are the first three paragraphs:

A recent paper in the Lancet claims that one in five people might not get immunity from being infected with COVID. The study is invalid. Although these sorts of problems have been seen before, this is a good opportunity to quickly recall why COVID science is in such dire straits.

The research has a straightforward goal: follow a population of Danish people who tested positive in Denmark’s first wave, and re-test them during the second wave to see if they became infected a second time. Denmark has a large free PCR testing programme so there is plenty of data to analyse. Out of 11,068 who tested positive in the first wave, 72 also tested positive during the second wave. This fact is used to advocate for vaccination of people who’ve already had COVID.

The obvious problem with this strategy is that false positives can cause apparent reinfection even when no such thing has happened. The paper doesn’t mention this possibility until page 7, where the entire topic is dismissed in a single sentence: “Some misclassifications by PCR tests might have occurred; however, the test used is believed to be highly accurate, with a sensitivity of 97·1% and specificity of 99·98%.” My curiosity was piqued by this figure because, as I’ve written about previously, at least as of June last year nobody knew what the false positive rate of COVID PCR testing is. The problem is circular logic: COVID is defined as having a positive test, therefore by definition it has no false positives, even though we know this cannot be true.

Worth reading in full.

Stop Press: The New York Times reports on a new study showing that eight months after infection most people who have recovered from coronavirus still have enough immune cells to fend off the virus and prevent illness. A slow rate of decline in the short term suggests that these cells may persist in the body for a very, very long time to come.

Tags: DenmarkFalse PositivesPCR TestReinfection

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6 Comments
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transmissionofflame
transmissionofflame
1 year ago

As news of Mr Anderson’s defection to Reform spread throughout Westminster on Monday morning, one senior Tory backbencher captured the mood by saying that “disbelief is the feeling amongst colleagues.”

Disbelief? Are they seriously surprised by this? What on earth did they expect? Can they really be that dim?

284
-1
nige.oldfart
nige.oldfart
1 year ago
Reply to  transmissionofflame

The answer to your last question Tof, is yes.

154
-1
stewart
stewart
1 year ago
Reply to  transmissionofflame

Dim. Arrogant. So used to getting things their way that they can’t ever envisage not getting things their way.

131
0
RW
RW
1 year ago
Reply to  transmissionofflame

MPs are expected to put their careers above everything else and joining a dissident right-wing party instead of groveling in one’s waste products (a quote from a 1980s computer game called Starflight) is certainly a career-killing move, hence, disbelief.

62
-3
huxleypiggles
huxleypiggles
1 year ago
Reply to  RW

Reform is “a dissident right-wing party?”

Sadly, it is not. Middle of the road possibly.

117
-4
RW
RW
1 year ago
Reply to  huxleypiggles

Let’s celebrate our pride in being British: our amazing culture, our unbreakable communities, our incredible heritage.

A statement like this, made in German by a German party, would be sufficient to be branded as arch-nazi by everyone commanding a public voice and to start initial investigations for extreme-right-wing-isms by the Federal Office for Protecting the Constitution (inland secret service). Things aren’t yet as bad on the UK but that’s where the journey is supposed to go to (Gove’s undermining of liberal democracy etc).

Sensible people would describe Reform as traditional centre-right party seeking to occupy the spot the Tories are supposed to be occupy. To career blobsters, that’s far more far right than anything should legally allowed to be. After all, the party is planning a thermageddon genocide of all of mankind by keeping to burn oil, coal and gas.

Last edited 1 year ago by RW
50
-2
kev
kev
1 year ago
Reply to  huxleypiggles

Stalking horse, pressure valve. I think Reform could be okay, but not under Tice, he’s not the right person, wrong on too many issues. He’s pro mRNA, pro “Covid” measures, pro Net Zero, not calling for peace in Russia v Ukraine so possibly a Neocon warmonger.

Similarly, Lee Anderson is wrong on many issues. And, if we’re being honest Farage.

Farage delivered Brexit, but on many issues he’s equally wrong headed.

Last edited 1 year ago by kev
28
-31
RW
RW
1 year ago
Reply to  kev

I can’t say anything about the other topics, but Reform certainly calls for everything-Net-Zero to be scrapped.

50
-1
kev
kev
1 year ago
Reply to  RW

Okay, happy to concede that point, if that is the case. But he was awful regards all things “Covid” and was very pro “vax”.

Someone believing the mRNA injections “might” be useful for the elderly and chronically ill, could be forgiven for being swept along by the all pervasive hysteria, but to suggest mandating, vaccine passports and ignoring the concept of “informed consent” or just “refusal for any reason” is unacceptable and unforgivable.

Yes times were tough in the first couple of years (at least), but some of us had the fortitude and insight to see this was all a massive con and betrayal by those in “charge”. We were betrayed by the people we should have been able to trust and rely on, and Tice and his ilk did not stand up and be counted, despite being offered a very powerful opportunity.

37
-4
kev
kev
1 year ago
Reply to  kev

Tice is probably controlled opposition – sadly! Sadly because we need someone genuine, principled, committed and on the side of freedom, rights, truth, with integrity and morality.

The way Reform are polling, they have real potential, not in 1st past the post, but if more do what Lee Anderson has done!

Last edited 1 year ago by kev
25
-5
Heretic
Heretic
1 year ago
Reply to  kev

Forcing young girls, who just want to dance, to have vaccines almost certain to mean increased still births, miscarriages, disabled children, infertility. Remember the vaccines still on emergency approval only. Revolting, disgusting.

RICHARD TICE, 19 JULY 2020.

34
0
Dinger64
Dinger64
1 year ago
Reply to  RW

Yes, I’ve heard Tice say that on a number of occasions

14
0
varmint
varmint
1 year ago
Reply to  RW

They do call for Net Zero to be scrapped. But to do that they will have an almighty battle on their hands against the huge Climate Industrial Complex. ——-I am all for this battle but it is going to be like Kursk on speed

26
-1
Heretic
Heretic
1 year ago
Reply to  RW

Yes, except his excellent policy of “Net Zero Migration”.

6
0
pamela preedy
pamela preedy
1 year ago
Reply to  RW

Not their ‘net zero’ migration policy they don’t!
And the candidate they put up in the ‘Groomers of Young White Girls ‘R’ Us’ Rochdale by-election of all places, was a former Labour MP done for sending creepy messages to Young Girls.
Reform needs to up its game considerably and relegate Tice to a back seat behind Nigel.

4
0
huxleypiggles
huxleypiggles
1 year ago
Reply to  kev

I pretty much agree with you kev. On all of it.

4
0
pamela preedy
pamela preedy
1 year ago
Reply to  huxleypiggles

Lukewarm as my support for Reform is (their net zero migration policy ‘one out, one in’ is ludicrous), if they manage to get even a small wrecking ball to knock the Uniparty skittle drones into disarray, that will be a start.

3
0
huxleypiggles
huxleypiggles
1 year ago
Reply to  transmissionofflame

“Can they really be that dim?”

Oh yes indeed they can and are.

59
0
varmint
varmint
1 year ago
Reply to  transmissionofflame

I have the feeling that career politicians feel that if they all swarm around the middle ground it will simply be a question of what bunch of wimps to vote for. They all want to sell the basic stuff like bread butter and milk, because they don’t seem to think the public want anything else. —-I can assure the silly Tories that if they think they are better off just being Labour Lite then they will have no identity anymore.

18
0
Dinger64
Dinger64
1 year ago

At last! Just what is needed, now come Nigel join in👍

88
-1
Dinger64
Dinger64
1 year ago
Reply to  Dinger64

And maybe even Andrew Brigden?!

100
0
RTSC
RTSC
1 year ago
Reply to  Dinger64

Nigel’s doing a sterling job on GB News …. and I expect his priority is doing whatever he can to help get Trump back in the White House.

9
0
Heretic
Heretic
1 year ago

That’s great news! Now, Andrew Bridgen, you, too.

64
0
kev
kev
1 year ago
Reply to  Heretic

Bridgen won’t join Reform because Tice is so wrong on everything “Covid” related. Tice is wrong on a lot of things! So is Farage, sadly!

26
-22
Heretic
Heretic
1 year ago
Reply to  kev

No, it is you who are wrong, apparently because you haven’t taken time to actually read the Reform policies on their website, or looked up any quotes from Richard Tice, like this one:

“Forcing young girls, who just want to dance, to have vaccines almost certain to mean increased still births, miscarriages, disabled children, infertility. Remember the vaccines still on emergency approval only. Revolting, disgusting.”

RICHARD TICE, 19 JULY 2020.

24
-1
10navigator
10navigator
1 year ago

Lee was wasted in Sunak’s party because there was no place for him. He’s a conservative.
Stout fellow!

84
0
Dinger64
Dinger64
1 year ago
Reply to  10navigator

True, he was like a trumpet with a wah wah stuck in the end, now he can really let rip!

20
0
huxleypiggles
huxleypiggles
1 year ago

https://www.conservativewoman.co.uk/irish-voters-i-salute-you/

Laura Perrins rubbing the Irish establishments noses in their gruesome defeat over a revised Constitution.

Sometimes, just sometimes the plebs do the right thing.

Marvellous.

86
-1
Dinger64
Dinger64
1 year ago
Reply to  huxleypiggles

👍 a real poke in the eye for the whole bloody lot of em!
Now let’s have a referendum on immigration and net zero (yer right, more chance of walking on Mars!)

40
0
CircusSpot
CircusSpot
1 year ago
Reply to  Dinger64

The problem is we had a referendum, and the blob have spent the last 6 years trying to dilute and destroy what the majority voted for.
We even have a second bercow!

38
0
JohnK
JohnK
1 year ago

Quite a few column inches (to use the old term) on GBN this lunchtime on that. Having been around for a while, the whole affair reminded me of the formation of the SDP in the early 1980s, when Labour broke apart.

23
0
CircusSpot
CircusSpot
1 year ago
Reply to  JohnK

Labour may well break apart again as George G is very keen to stand more candidates & could well take 20 or more seats from them.

15
0
huxleypiggles
huxleypiggles
1 year ago

https://www.conservativewoman.co.uk/anti-semitic-londons-echoes-of-1930s-berlin/

Londonistan.

This is what you get when somebody with no allegiance to this country is allowed to become Mayor.

I don’t know how the establishment sleeps at night – traitors all.

50
-4
RW
RW
1 year ago
Reply to  huxleypiggles

There were no Arabs shouting anything in “1930s Berlin” and the Arabs currently shouting something in London aren’t burning books written by German communists and communism supporters and other beneficiaries or proponents of the Versailles treaty and the Weimar republic/ system it begat. This (the article) is nothing but another clumsy (very clumsy, actually, as the related events aren’t even superficially similar) to repurpose well-established anti-German stereotypes for supporting the present policy of the government of Israel.

5
-9
Mogwai
Mogwai
1 year ago

Did we know this? I didn’t know this. Smells like appeasement again, it’s getting way too familiar a stench methinks;

”More than £117m of taxpayers’ money will be used to protect mosques, Muslim schools and community centres from hate attacks over the next four years.
Home Secretary James Cleverly said the money, which will be spent on measures including CCTV cameras, alarms and fencing, would give “reassurance and confidence to UK Muslims”. The announcement, which follows a £70m package for Jewish groups, comes in response to concerns that the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza is fuelling division in the UK.

The Government condemned a recent rise in reported anti-Muslim and anti-Jewish hatred and ministers have made it clear they expect the police to fully investigate all hate crimes and work with the Crown Prosecution Service to bring perpetrators to justice.
Mr Cleverly said: “Anti-Muslim hatred has absolutely no place in our society. We will not let events in the Middle East be used as an excuse to justify abuse against British Muslims.
“The Prime Minister has made clear that we stand with Muslims in the UK. That is exactly why we have committed to this funding, giving reassurance and confidence to UK Muslims at a time when it is crucially needed.”

https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/government-commits-more-117m-protect-28792057

28
-1
Mogwai
Mogwai
1 year ago
Reply to  Mogwai

Not that we need any further confirmation of who the Met police favour and give preferential treatment to. We all know who the perma-victims are. So does this mean we can expect zero ‘incidents’ perpetrated by a certain not insignificant section of society now that we’ve entered the ‘peaceful’ month-long Ramadan festival?

https://twitter.com/blonschki/status/1767134772155822437

Last edited 1 year ago by Mogwai
31
-1
varmint
varmint
1 year ago
Reply to  Mogwai

Go Go Go ———–Thanks for your great contributions. I am going to have to create a new Twitter account to see all the links you post as my last one seems to have bitten the dust. —-cheers.

10
-1
Mogwai
Mogwai
1 year ago
Reply to  varmint

Cheers, Varmint.👍 It’s nice to be nice.

5
-1
pamela preedy
pamela preedy
1 year ago
Reply to  Mogwai

Are the front bench idiots doing anything to protect the rightful people of this country whose forefathers and mothers suffered, shed blood and died in numerous wars over centuries against would-be invaders and dictators to keep this country safe and free?

No, they would rather appease the izlamists by spending our taxes protecting jihadis who would like to murder us, & on idealogues who plot to outnumber us, sabotage our society by using democracy against us and turn the UK into the kind of 3rd world izlamic ****hole they came from.

Vile traitors sit in Westminster.

2
0
varmint
varmint
1 year ago

The Tories then have given up being right of centre and have morphed into just another hand wringing bunch of Liberal Progressive wimps. ——–What we do not want though is for Reform to become the rabble rouser party, we still need to make cohesive and sophisticated arguments. —-I say “we” because I now have no choice but to abandon the former conservatives known as Tories and vote for the only right of centre party now available.

17
0
Castorp
Castorp
1 year ago

QuoteLee Anderson Defects from Globalist Uniparty 1 to Intelligence Agency Outfit.
There, fixed it for you.

3
-3
Freddy Boy
Freddy Boy
1 year ago

Are Reform becoming the GB News of Politics ? Tice backed the Jabs at one point & now word up is that Anderson did too ? + they don’t seem to back Bridgen !

7
-1
marebobowl
marebobowl
1 year ago

Whoever vetted this chap, should be ashamed. He is not a benefit to anyone’s party. For the simple reason, he believes the covid 💉💉saved millions of lives.

9
0
Freddy Boy
Freddy Boy
1 year ago
Reply to  marebobowl

I raised this & got a downtick for my trouble 🤔

7
0
huxleypiggles
huxleypiggles
1 year ago
Reply to  marebobowl

I mentioned this a couple of days ago. For his position on the jibby’s he is suss.

6
-1
RW
RW
1 year ago
Reply to  marebobowl

That’s a belief he probably shares with the overwhelming majority of the population who got jabbed because they were told it was the right thing to do and who don’t want to admit – at least not publically – that all they really did was saddle themselves with an avoidable health risk for pharma industry profits and with the ultimate outcome that the covaxxes ceased to be bestselling product because everybody (almost) got tired of being pricked with needles and thus, restarted living in this germ-ridden world as if the pandemic of Corona madness had never occurred. It’s futile to demand perfection from people.

A competent leader uses the wise man, the brave man, the avaricious man and the stupid man. The wise man wants to distinguish himself, the brave man wants to prove his courage by fighting, the avaricious man seeks his own benefit and the stupid man doesn’t fear death.
[Sun Tsu, The Art of War]

Last edited 1 year ago by RW
4
0
RTSC
RTSC
1 year ago

Apparently the Party Grandees are planning to fight back by deploying Lord Dave of Greenshill Lobbying and the Fat Oaf on the campaign trail. If they can get the knives out of each other’s and Sunak’s back first, of course.

Now I agree that for some strange reason, the Fat Oaf does seem to appeal to many working class voters. But the Greenshill grifter ….. words fail me.

10
0
Freddy Boy
Freddy Boy
1 year ago
Reply to  RTSC

Do you mean Bunter ? The Booster blaring 80 Seat majority Chunt !!!

10
0
RTSC
RTSC
1 year ago

We seem to be gearing up to enforce a PR system onto the Westminster Uni Party, which is desperate to keep FPTP ….. with Reform snapping at the heels of the Not-a-Conservative-Party and Galloway gearing up to inflict some serious damage on Fabian-Labour.

Jolly Dee ….

8
0
RW
RW
1 year ago
Reply to  RTSC

That’s not really a good idea. PR systems cement the division of people instead of representing their unity and invariably lead to professional particians putting the interest of their party above everything else.

One of the reasons why the first world-war was terminated by a revolution in Germany is that particians of the largest party (the SPD) didn’t think, and very much rightly so, it wouldn’t be in the best interest of their own party if the war ended with a German victory or even just with amiable peace negotiations among the warring powers. This caused millions of people to get killed or be driven from their homes (there’s really only one world-war with 20 years of an uneasy armistice in between) but to this day, the SPD is a major, if not the major political force in whatever remains of German it currently controls.

From the standpoint of the SPD, this was absolutely the right strategy and the sacrifces fell mostly onto others.

5
0

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