31800
  • Log in
The Daily Sceptic
No Result
View All Result
  • Articles
  • About
  • Archive
    • ARCHIVE
    • NEWS ROUND-UPS
  • Forum
  • Donate
  • Newsletter
The Daily Sceptic
No Result
View All Result

Close Analysis of Regional Notifiable Disease Data Bolsters the Case for the Epidemic Phase of COVID-19 Being a Spring phenomenon

by Dr Clare Craig and Jonathan Engler and Joel Smalley
3 January 2021 2:56 PM

by Dr Clare Craig FRCPath, Jonathan Engler MBChB LLB and Joel Smalley MBA

When a notifiable disease, such as COVID-19, is recorded the location of the patient involved is also recorded. If notifiable disease data is a reliable measure of symptomatic COVID, then there is a striking South West predominance in the Autumn (Figure 1).

The latest data shows continuing decline in notified cases of COVID-19, with only 50 cases notified to Public Health England in the week ending 20th December and 85 cases in the week ending 27th December. Other datasets including, 111 triage data, 999 triage data, ambulance surveillance data, accident and emergency attendance data and excess death data all indicate a Spring epidemic which ended at the end of May or beginning of June, a regionalised Autumn second ripple, and then a return to baseline. This baseline will be a normal level for winter as COVID is now endemic. The only data that does not fit with the other measures is the data dependent on PCR testing.

Figure 1. Notified instances of COVID-19 by location.

The numbers of cases that have been notified are a very small percentage of PCR positive results, despite it being a statutory obligation for the treating doctor to notify even a suspicion of a case.

We have previously discussed why notifiable disease reports for COVID-19 may have been lower than expected. In that paper, we included the following graphs (figure 2), the second of which includes a scaled up view of the cases notified so as to more easily observe trends.

Figure 2. Notified COVID cases (orange) vs PCR positive COVID cases (grey). Top graph on same scale second graph scaled to show trends.

However, closer inspection suggests that the Autumn “2nd peak” of Notifiable Covid may in fact be an artefact which does not represent the true picture nationally, since nearly all the deaths notified during Autumn were in fact from the South West region, with the peak in that area reaching numbers beyond those seen for other regions in Spring.

.

Figure 3. Cases of COVID diagnosed in the whole South West region.

PCR positive cases showed a similar rise and fall in cases in the South West in Autumn (figure 3) to that seen in the notified disease data. However, unlike in Spring, there were minimal excess deaths observed in the Autumn from 16th October (figure 4).

Figure 4. Deaths by date of occurrence 2020 in South West compared to 2015-2019 (dashed line) and projected deaths based on low levels of death in 2020 in January and February (dotted line) demonstrating summer excess deaths in the heatwave and minimal excess deaths in Autumn.

It could therefore be hypothesised that a team of enthusiastic doctors in this region have been more vigilant in reporting outbreaks than elsewhere, but it is noteworthy that the same team were not as vigilant in Spring. If the South West data in Autumn were removed from the dataset then the notifiable disease reporting data takes on a familiar trajectory (figure 5).

Figure 5. Notified instances of COVID-19 by location excluding South West.

The notified disease data may be subject to marked bias, e.g. from a particular group of doctors being more earnest about their statutory obligations. However, it is odd that the PCR positive case data is not reflected by excess deaths confirming, as seen elsewhere, PCR positivity is no longer measuring real Covid.

Conclusion

The first impression from examining the overall notifiable disease data is that the numbers are far lower than PCR positive results but that there was a similar level of disease present in Autumn as Spring. However, examining this data on a regional basis shows that a group of enthusiastic doctors in the South West may have created a distortion in the Autumn data. Removing this distortion would result in this dataset concurring with multiple other sources to indicate that the epidemic phase of the COVID-19 outbreak was, as previously stated, over in Spring.



Donate

We depend on your donations to keep this site going. Please give what you can.

Donate Today

Comment on this Article

You’ll need to set up an account to comment if you don’t already have one. We ask for a minimum donation of £5 if you'd like to make a comment or post in our Forums.

Sign Up
Previous Post

Latest News

Next Post

A Reply to David McGrogan

NEWSLETTER

View today’s newsletter

To receive our latest news in the form of a daily email, enter your details here:

DONATE

PODCAST

Nick Dixon and Toby Young Talk About the Davos Elites’ Prolific Use of Prostitutes, Clarkson’s Fightback and the Government’s Bizarre Plan to Ban Discouraging Teens From Becoming Trans

by Will Jones
24 January 2023
1

LISTED ARTICLES

  • Most Read
  • Most Commented
  • Editors Picks

The Billionaires Coming For Your Gas Boiler

28 January 2023
by Toby Young

News Round-Up

28 January 2023
by Toby Young

Pro-Mask Crusader Trish Greenhalgh Plumbs New Depths of Distortion

27 January 2023
by Dr Gary Sidley

Was Refusing the Vaccine Really Just a “Coin Flip?”

28 January 2023
by Nick Dixon

About That Project Veritas Scoop

28 January 2023
by Eugyppius

In Praise of Boris Johnson’s Stance on Ukraine

47

Was Refusing the Vaccine Really Just a “Coin Flip?”

45

Pro-Mask Crusader Trish Greenhalgh Plumbs New Depths of Distortion

46

News Round-Up

25

The Billionaires Coming For Your Gas Boiler

17

In Praise of Boris Johnson’s Stance on Ukraine

28 January 2023
by Noah Carl

MHRA Caught Not Doing Its Promised Vaccine Safety Monitoring (Again)

28 January 2023
by Nick Denim

Pro-Mask Crusader Trish Greenhalgh Plumbs New Depths of Distortion

27 January 2023
by Dr Gary Sidley

Lockdowns Responsible for Thousands of Alcohol Deaths – ONS

27 January 2023
by Dr Carl Heneghan and Dr Tom Jefferson

Deaths Running 26% Above Pre-Pandemic Levels – and the Vaccines Remain a Leading Suspect

27 January 2023
by Will Jones

POSTS BY DATE

January 2021
M T W T F S S
 123
45678910
11121314151617
18192021222324
25262728293031
« Dec   Feb »

SOCIAL LINKS

Free Speech Union
  • Home
  • About us
  • Donate
  • Privacy Policy

Facebook

Twitter

Instagram

RSS

Subscribe to our newsletter

© Skeptics Ltd.

No Result
View All Result
  • Articles
  • About
  • Archive
    • ARCHIVE
    • NEWS ROUND-UPS
  • Forum
  • Donate
  • Newsletter

© Skeptics Ltd.

Welcome Back!

Login to your account below

Forgotten Password?

Create New Account!

Please note: To be able to comment on our articles you'll need to be a registered donor

Already have an account?
Please click here to login Log In

Retrieve your password

Please enter your username or email address to reset your password.

Log In