Government to Close Schools Again
The Government has announced targeted school closures for England in an attempt to control the spread of the virus (though it’s unlikely to help much, as Toby explained yesterday). The Telegraph has the details.
One million primary school pupils will not return to classrooms as planned next term as Boris Johnson unveiled sweeping school closures and warned more could follow.
The Prime Minister said that in order to combat the spread of the new coronavirus variant, the majority of secondary school pupils will now stay at home until “at least” January 18th, two weeks after term was supposed to start. Those in exam years 11 and 13 will return on January 11th.
Only the children of key workers and vulnerable children will go back on January 4th, the scheduled start date. It means the staggered start to term which had previously been announced will be moved back by a week.
Primary schools in “high infection areas”, estimated to affect one million pupils, will also close for the first time since the spring for at least two weeks as Mr Johnson said “even tougher action” was needed because of the “sheer pace” of the rising infections.
The Prime Minister said there was no guarantee that the January 18th return date would not slip further, as the latest data on infection rates would be reviewed at that point.
He added: “I want to stress that, depending on the spread of the disease, it may be necessary to take further action in their cases as well.”
The announcement came as three quarters of the population of England were quarantined in Tier 4 as of this morning, with the rest of the country left in the scarcely less restrictive Tier 3, creating a new national lockdown in all but name.
My own area, Warwick District, was one of those included in Tier 4. Which makes perfect sense when you look at the latest ZOE app data for reported symptomatic Covid.
567 out of a population of 143,753. That’s a burning epidemic right there.
Stop Press: In Sarah Vine’s column in yesterday’s Daily Mail she opposed school closures, saying “it’s madness to treat our schools like nail bars or nightclubs“. Yet her husband Michael Gove is reported to have sided with Matt Hancock and opposed Gavin Williamson’s efforts to keep schools open. Trouble in paradise?
Coronavirus Pandemic Returns UK to Mortality Levels Not Seen Since… er… 2008
The UK reported a further 981 Covid deaths yesterday as the Christmas reporting delay caught up with us. Ross Clark popped up in MailOnline to put the figures into context.
Britain has an elderly population compared with many countries and large numbers of people die every day.
In England and Wales in 2019, for example, 530,841 people died – an average of 1,454 every day or “four jumbo jet” loads, to use the alarmist comparison favoured by much of the pro-lockdown commentariat.
While COVID-19 is, of course, a serious disease, many of those who have died from it were close to the end of their lives in any case. If it hadn’t been COVID-19, it might well have been another infectious disease – flu or pneumonia – which dealt the final blow.
Covid has killed some “healthy” people who did not have underlying conditions, but it has done so in relatively small numbers. Until 4pm on December 23rd, 47,750 people had died of COVID-19 in English hospitals, but fewer than 2,000 of these had no pre-existing medical condition.
These figures, from NHS England, exclude people who have died at home or in nursing homes.
Among those who died, 26% were already suffering from diabetes, 17% had dementia, 16% chronic pulmonary disease, 16% chronic kidney disease and 14% heart disease. Moreover, not all “Covid” deaths were really caused by the disease.
The Government’s definition of a Covid death is someone who has died from any cause within 28 days of testing positive for COVID-19.
You could be struck by a bus three weeks after a positive test and still be reported as a Covid death.
Of all deaths, 54% – some 27,000 – were among the over-80s. Only about 3,600 victims were under 60 and just 388 of these had no pre-existing condition.
When looking at overall mortality it’s important to take into account that the population is both growing and ageing.
The Office for National Statistics says that in the week to December 11th there were 12,292 deaths registered in England and Wales – 14% above the five-year average.
Yet the population is growing and ageing – the number of over-70s is increasing by around 2% a year – so, all things being equal, we should expect more people to die. More enlightening is the “Mortality Monitor” published by the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries, which adjusts the mortality rate to take account of a growing and ageing population.
Its figures show that mortality in England and Wales in the first 50 weeks of this year was 12.3% higher than in the same period of 2019, but only 6.9% higher than the average for the past 10 years.
It is only 3% higher than in the worst of those years – 2010 – and it is slightly lower than it was in 2008.
In other words, we have been through a pandemic which has closed down large parts of the economy and led to us being locked down in our homes for weeks on end – and yet, after all that, it has really just returned us to the mortality rate of 12 years ago.
The new ONS figures out yesterday show that excess mortality continued to decrease in the week ending December 18th, down to 12.5%. This is despite the number of deaths and Covid deaths increasing on the previous week, since the five-year average increased by a greater amount (this time of year often sees a surge in deaths).
Ross’s piece appeared as data leaked to the Health Service Journal and reported in the Mail showed that ICUs in London, the South East and the East of England are now operating above maximum capacity, meaning staff must be redeployed to manage demand. Essex declared a “major incident”.
Just over a week ago on December 20th, NHS figures showed ICUs operating below average, as Lockdown Sceptics reported on Monday, meaning this has been a sharp rise, suggesting London and the South East are now experiencing similar outbreaks to those seen in northern areas a few weeks ago. An NHS spokesperson said:
The NHS has tried and tested plans in place to manage significant pressure either from high COVID-19 infection rates or non-Covid winter demands and this has always included mutual aid practices whereby hospitals work together to manage admissions.
While the NHS is opening more beds in places like London to care for the most unwell patients, it is vital that people continue to follow government guidance and do everything possible to reduce transmission of the virus.
The Telegraph in an editorial asks why the NHS is not better prepared for this anticipated increase in winter demand.
If the NHS is on the cusp of being overrun, the public is entitled to know why it is not better prepared. Imposing another lockdown, or indeed the burdensome Tier 4 measures much of the country is already labouring under, is not a small matter but an economic and social calamity that will compound the damage already done by months of restrictions. There were no shortage of predictions that the virus would return after the summer. Even the arrival of a new variant of COVID-19 was foreseeable.
Nightingale hospitals, intended to provide extra capacity, stand empty or are being dismantled, supposedly because of a shortage of staff. But if the country faces such an emergency that businesses need to be forcibly closed and individuals stripped of their liberties, why have not more efforts been made to call thousands of retired doctors into service or put student nurses on to wards?
Why indeed. Is lockdown now the preferred Government policy for managing the annual winter beds crisis? Let’s hope not.
Stop Press: A doctor who volunteered to come out of retirement to help explained on Twitter that the NHS asked retirees like her to produce 20 “certificates” that they didn’t have as a condition of hiring them. One of them was proof that they’d received the requisite training in “equality and diversity”. You couldn’t make it up.
Oxford Vaccine Approved
The Oxford AstraZeneca vaccine was approved by the MHRA yesterday and will be given to the first patients on Monday. BBC News has more.
The Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine has been approved for use in the UK, with the first doses due to be given on Monday.
There will be 530,000 doses available from next week, and vaccination centres will now start inviting patients to come and get the jab.
Priority groups for immunisation have already been identified, starting with care home residents, the over-80s, and health and care workers.
The Government’s vaccine strategy has shifted in light of the announcement.
The Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) has authorised two full doses of the Oxford vaccine, with the second dose to be given four to 12 weeks after the first.
The immunisation campaign will now shift to giving as many people as possible their first dose of vaccine with a second dose following within that period.
When the Pfizer-BioNTech jab rollout began, the aim was to give the second dose after three weeks.
But based on advice from the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation, the aim now is to give as many vulnerable people some protection from COVID-19, irrespective of the jab they are given.
The Oxford vaccine is easier to store and distribute, as it can be kept at normal fridge temperature unlike the Pfizer-BioNTech jab that has to be kept at -70C.
There is also more confidence about supply as it is UK-made, whereas the Pfizer-BioNTech jab has to be shipped in from Belgium.
Pregnant and breastfeeding women can now take either of the two approved coronavirus vaccines “when the potential benefits outweigh the risks”, experts said at an MHRA news conference.
The Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine can also now be administered to people with a wide range of food and medicine allergies, but people allergic to ingredients in the vaccine should not take it.
Dr June Raine, chief executive of the MHRA, told the briefing that “no corners have been cut” in assessing the safety and effectiveness of the Oxford-AstraZeneca jab.
The questions about dosage and effectiveness are said to have been resolved, though details are as yet unpublished.
Trials showed two full doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech jab were 95% effective at preventing infection, while the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine showed 62% effectiveness – although even in cases where people were infected, there were no cases of serious illness needing hospital treatment.
Trials of the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine also showed that when people were given a half dose then a full dose, effectiveness hit 90%.
But there was not enough clear data to approve the half-dose, full-dose idea.
However, unpublished data suggests that leaving a longer gap between the first and second doses increases the overall effectiveness of the jab – in the sub-group given the vaccine this way it was found to be 70% effective after the first dose.
All the vaccines are expected to be equally effective against the new variants of the virus that have emerged.
It’s a strange one this Oxford vaccine. First the trial dosages were botched and greater efficacy was claimed for an experimental dose. Then that claim was scrapped but a similar claim is now being made, in retrospect, for a greater gap between doses. How does this pass the strict safety standards for trials for new vaccines and drugs? Perhaps the mystery will be solved when the full data is published.
Also noteworthy is that the greater efficacy of 70% is claimed for 12 week spacing, yet the approval is for four to 12 week spacing, suggesting the increase in efficacy is not regarded as crucial when set against speed of rollout.
Stop Press: The EU has yet to be convinced about the Oxford vaccine. Pharmaceutical Technology has more.
The European Medicines Authority (EMA) has said that the drug maker AstraZeneca and the University of Oxford’s COVID-19 vaccine may not be approved in January next year.
Belgian newspaper Het Nieuwsblad quoted the EMA deputy executive director Noel Wathion as saying: “They have not even filed an application with us yet. Not even enough to warrant a conditional marketing licence.
“We need additional data about the quality of the vaccine. And, after that, the company has to formally apply.”
Lest We Forget
We’re publishing another brilliant piece today by Sinead Murphy, a philosophy lecturer at Newcastle University. She looks back at the year gone by and concludes that we’ve lost sight of the difference between life and death – we’ve redefined life as non-death, forgetting all the things that made life worth living. Here is the opening section about one of the most haunting images from 2020.
It’s that time of year when we name the best and worst. Competition is stiff, on one side of the equation at least. How many worsts there have been, each hardly conceivable before it was suddenly real.
But there was a worst of all. In October in Milton Keynes. Two brothers moved to the side of their grieving mother, putting their arms around her shoulders as she sat before the box containing their dead father’s remains, only to be reminded by an official from the crematorium that they were not permitted to be within six feet of their mother during the ceremony – as if she had been lowered into the grave as their father was being raised onto the pyre.
It is the simplest of mourning rituals, a consoling arm around the shoulders. A fragment of a ritual, really. And yet it too has been made to retreat before the march of Health and Safety, those twin murderers of the last vestiges of our arts of living and dying.
Worth reading in full.
“I Work For Test and Trace and I’m Making Just One or Two Calls Per Hour”
After our devastating piece from a Test and Trace contact tracer working for one of Serco’s sub-contractors back in October, another contact tracer has got in touch to tell us how little she has had to do recently despite the surge in “cases”. The following piece is anonymous as contact tracers are required to sign non-disclosure agreements.
When I started working for Test and Trace in May, little did I know I’d end up a ‘lockdown sceptic’.
I think readers would be most interested in recent events in the Test and Trace saga. As a previously written article from one of my colleagues from Tier 3 (nothing to do with lockdown Tiers) has already highlighted, the many problems of contact tracing and the antiquated NHS system seem to be more about confusing and harassing the public with incorrect isolation advice, rather than helping them.
I work as a Tier 2 Contact Tracer; my job is to call people who have tested positive, but have failed to complete the online form that is sent to them by text and email to ask about their contacts.
With 40,000+ people now testing positive every day, you would think I would be very busy, but, in fact, I am making just 1.5 calls per hour – most people don’t answer the phone, so I can go hours without speaking to anyone. This would lead you to believe that all those positive cases must be completing their online forms, but I think that would be highly unlikely, because I’ve also worked on Tier 3 calls and it’s obvious that people can’t be bothered to answer the phone, let alone fill in a lengthy form (which takes about 30 minutes to complete) about all their contacts and activities in the run up to testing positive.
I must question why, on November 24th, Serco employed 500+ more Contact Tracers, when we were so quiet? Did the Government know about the new variant before December and want to be prepared? Does someone in Government have a finger or two in the lucrative Test and Trace programme? Or might a more worrying explanation be that thousands of details of positive cases are being lost in the system somewhere, and not making it on to the call list? The managers don’t seem to know what’s going on, but it’s time to question why billions of pounds are being paid to Serco to employ Contact Tracers, who are only making a handful of calls a day.
In addition to the questions we have over the accuracy of PCR and Lateral flow testing, just where is the data to show that any of this is working? I don’t want to talk myself out of a job because, without it, I wouldn’t be able to pay the bills, but I’m starting to feel like a fraud.
Woman Arrested For Filming Inside Empty Hospital
A woman has been arrested for filming inside a hospital to show how empty it is. Summit News has the story.
A woman in the UK was arrested by police after she filmed a video inside an almost completely empty hospital and posted it online.
The clip shows the woman walking through virtually empty corridors and filming empty wards at Gloucestershire Royal Hospital.
“This is a disgrace… it is so dead… all the people in our country desperately waiting for treatment, cancer treatment, heart disease, honestly this is making me so angry,” she states as she films a row of empty waiting chairs.
The woman expressed shock at how quiet the hospital was, saying she expected there to be “a few more people around, there’s absolutely nobody”.
According to reports, a 46 year-old woman was subsequently arrested by police for filming the video and has been charged on suspicion of a public order offence.
“The woman has been bailed to return to police on January 21st, with conditions that she cannot enter any NHS premises or the grounds of any such premises, unless in the case of an emergency or to attend a pre-arranged NHS appointment,” said a statement by Gloucestershire Police.
UPDATE: A reader whose wife works in the hospital has got in touch to say the area filmed is always empty on a Sunday as it is a “Monday to Friday” area which is nothing to do with Covid – a Physiotherapy outpatients unit or similar.
An NHS Consultant Surgeon Writes…
A consultant surgeon at an NHS trust in the North East has got in touch to say he agrees with yesterday’s analysis by Lockdown Sceptics‘s resident Doctor that this winter is little different to last winter, at least in his hospital.
ITU at the moment is full (10 Covid, six non-Covid). That said, this is not necessarily unusual for this time of the year. ITU was full last year and in previous years.
Daily Covid admissions and discharge rates are pretty much on par (between 10 to 15 in both directions), but Covid inpatients are rising and now occupy 50% of the acute beds.
Of 194 Covid patients, 10 are in ICU and ventilated, 10 on high pressure masks (non-invasive ventilation), and 20 to 30 on oxygen on the wards. The rest are ambulant and don’t require particular care. They either cannot be discharged back to nursing homes as they still test positive, don’t want to go back home for fear of infecting someone else, have social reasons for wanting to stay in hospital, or have been given an in-hospital diagnosis of Covid and don’t want to leave in case they develop respiratory problems, i.e. they came in for something else but have subsequently tested positive while in hospital. Essentially, the bulk of in-hospital beds occupied by “Covid” patients are not there out of medical necessity or a requirement for acute care. They are in hospital due to other factors.
Now this is not necessarily something novel. It happens all the time. Not all patients who are admitted to hospital need to be admitted or need to stay for the length of time they are inpatients for. This is a routine problem, particularly in winter. But the staff are gradually being ground down, both psychologically due to the heightened perception of crisis and physically as more and more staff are self-isolating, catching Covid, etc. In addition, this year a letter was sent to 140ish staff as they were deemed high risk and told to self-isolate. This has exacerbated the staffing problem.
Some of the factors mentioned – such as social care aspects preventing discharge and the lack of care home beds – are chronic issues and unrelated to Covid (we get this every year and it is worse during the winter months). But Covid has added another layer of complexity, leading to “bed blocking”. As your doctor rightly points out, ICU and non-invasive ventilation or oxygen requirements are par for the course and no worse than at the real peak in April.
During the initial spike in April/May, “bed blocking” did not happen as patients were sent back to nursing homes without tests, patients were encouraged to go home and self-isolate, hospitals were generally emptied and much activity had stopped. We also had a lot less nosocomial (hospital acquired) Covid.
I don’t have an explanation as to why hospital acquired infections have increased a lot, as in up to 30% of Covid inpatients at the time of writing. (Thirty per cent of those are said to be “asymptomatic”, but that is another story). But when half the beds are presumably filled with patients who have Covid, this must increase the viral load in the building. That is however an assumption for which I have no proof.
Stop Press: James Melville has produced a great Twitter thread comparing our current NHS crisis with previous years. Turns out, a winter NHS “crisis” is an annual event.
I Remember, I Remember (Updated)
A poem by Lockdown Sceptics reader Adam March.
I remember, I remember,
Once living in a place
Where I could do my weekly shop
Without a covered face
And even share a greeting
With a handshake or a hug
Or have a conversation
With my mates down at the pub.
I remember, I remember,
Those Yuletides and New Years
That glowed with joy and merriment
And laughter – without Tiers.
We’d mingle free of test-and-trace
Recording where we’ve been
And see our ageing loved ones
With no window in-between.
I remember, I remember,
How all our leaders lied
And threatened us, and bullied us,
To keep us all inside.
And if we keep complying
Out of ignorance and fear
We’ll have no more than memories
Of all we once held dear.
Let’s Hear It For The Disruptors
We’re publishing a good piece today by a dairy farmer and former sales director in the food sector who has gone on a journey that’s probably typical of many of the people who end up reading Lockdown Sceptics. Here’s an excerpt.
When the pandemic started, I tuned in religiously to the daily Government briefings, I stuck to the lockdown rules and I logged on to Worldometer and FT Coronavirus websites. But I lost heart as the Government and SAGE released increasingly implausible forecasts and the daily briefings became an utterly pointless exercise in ritual humiliation of the hapless Matt Hancock. Why were the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg and Sky’s Beth Rigby obsessing about tactical failings over PPE and contact tracing without challenging the overarching strategy? Hugh Grant, in the days when he was writing for Horse and Hound, would have provided more insight. The Government were being allowed to implement policy without showing their workings. They produced neither analysis of the impact of their interventions nor of the appalling human and economic consequences of lockdown’s collateral damage. I started looking elsewhere.
Freddie Sayer’s fascinating interview with Johan Giesecke (from 1995-2005 the State Epidemiologist for Sweden) on Unherd (“pushing back against the herd mentality” NB not herd immunity) was my first off-piste experience and it gave me a taste for fresh powder. The Spectator’s James Delingpole introduced me to Dr Mike Yeadon in his Delingpod, and Toby Young created an outlet for alternative views in the form of this blog. On talkRADIO, Julia Hartley-Brewer, Mike Graham and Dan Wooton gave doubters, including the irrepressible Peter Hitchens, a platform on the airwaves. As a centrist Remainer, these were unexpected bedfellows. My friend, super intelligent and early obsessive, Brian, shared data, video clips and articles. I learnt about SOAs, FPRs and ASMRs; I swotted up on Gompertz curves and “dry tinder”; and… I ventured on to Twitter.
I struck early gold with David Paton (@cricketwyvern). Professor of Industrial Economics at the University of Nottingham, Paton was the first person to re-state deaths by the date they occurred rather than when they were reported – this made a huge difference to the shape of the curves and our understanding of the path of the virus. It was Paton’s analysis that clearly showed that placing Liverpool, Nottingham, Manchester and other northern towns in tiers in October/November was not responsible for the fall in hospital cases and deaths. I check his numbers every day. I also keep an eye on Pandemics Data Analytics (@PanData19) who provides global in-depth data and graphic analysis, and Dr Clare Craig (@clarecraigpath) of this parish.
But most of my Twitter time goes to Ivor Cummins (@FatEmperor) and Joel Smalley (@RealJoelSmalley). Smalley is a data scientist specialising in multivariate time-series and stochastic analysis; whatever that is, he is brilliant at turning complicated data into clear and intelligible information and it is often his data that Cummins uses. If you do only one thing after reading this article, look at this slide on Smalley’s pinned tweet, which overlays Government interventions against Covid deaths.
Worth reading in full.
Round-up
- “What is left to say?” – Excellent summary from Dr Malcolm Kendrick of where we are now, with a good look at what overall mortality figures tell us
- “Covid: The Illusion of Control” – A piece on a similar theme from the Swiss Doctor
- “Do we finally have an answer on Covid immunity?” – Ross Clark in the Spectator on a new study in the New England Journal of Medicine that finds reinfection very rare (and always asymptomatic). It also found almost half of positive PCR “cases” were asymptomatic
- “Effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19: A Tale of Three Models” – Pre-print from Prof John Ioannidis and team concluding: “Inferences on effects of NPIs are non-robust and highly sensitive to model specification. Claimed benefits of lockdown appear grossly exaggerated”
- “Knowing Right From Wrong” – Sandy Szwarc writes in Crit Large about the problematic ethics of deliberately scaring people over their health. See also her piece in AIER on “The Astonishing Psychological Cost of Lockdown“
- “Covid and Biblical Principles: Safety” – Phill Sacre says according to the Bible the pursuit of safety must be proportionate to enjoying life
- “Wuhan’s Covid Cases May Have Been 10 Times Higher, Study Shows” – Bloomberg reports on an antibody study in Wuhan that finds 4.4% prevalence. No mention of T-cells though, and the report implausibly credits China as having “contained the coronavirus, with sporadic flareups since April snuffed out through aggressive contract tracing and quickly testing millions of people in a matter of days”
- “Congressman-elect Luke Letlow suffered a heart attack following operation” – The New York Post reports that the tragic story of the death of the 41 year-old newly elected member of Congress “with Covid” was not actually a death from Covid, despite how it has been spun by the media
- “Mysterious Disappearance Of Flu In San Diego Prompted Call For Audit Of COVID Records” – Tyler Durden in Zero Hedge on the suspected misattribution of deaths in America
- “The Government needs an alternative source of expertise to help ministers identify and put the right questions to SAGE to ascertain whether they are on the money or a hundred miles from it” – Sir Desmond Swayne MP tweets his latest speech in the Commons. Well worth a listen, as always
Theme Tunes Suggested by Readers
Nine today: “I’ll Break Out Again Tonight” by Willie Nelson, “Worst Year Of My Life” by Wild Swans, “Never To Be Forgotten Kinda Year” by Dan Bern, “There Ain’t Gonna Be No Party” by Ronnie Fields, “Tell Me When It’s Over” by The Dream Syndicate, “Something Must Break” by Joy Division, “You can’t do that” by the Beatles, “I’m going slightly mad” by Queen and “Welcome to my nightmare” by Alice Cooper.
Love in the Time of Covid
We have created some Lockdown Sceptics Forums, including a dating forum called “Love in a Covid Climate” that has attracted a bit of attention. We have a team of moderators in place to remove spam and deal with the trolls, but sometimes it takes a little while so please bear with us. You have to register to use the Forums as well as post comments below the line, but that should just be a one-time thing. Any problems, email the Lockdown Sceptics webmaster Ian Rons here.
Sharing Stories
Some of you have asked how to link to particular stories on Lockdown Sceptics so you can share it. To do that, click on the headline of a particular story and a link symbol will appear on the right-hand side of the headline. Click on the link and the URL of your page will switch to the URL of that particular story. You can then copy that URL and either email it to your friends or post it on social media. Please do share the stories.
Social Media Accounts
You can follow Lockdown Sceptics on our social media accounts which are updated throughout the day. To follow us on Facebook, click here; to follow us on Twitter, click here; to follow us on Instagram, click here; to follow us on Parler, click here; and to follow us on MeWe, click here.
Woke Gobbledegook
We’ve decided to create a permanent slot down here for woke gobbledegook. Today, an entire glossary, courtesy of Victor Davis Hanson in National Review. Here’s a taste.
“Cultural appropriation.” This adjective-noun phrase must include contextualisation to be an effective tool in the anti-racism effort.
It does not mean, as the ignorant may infer from its dictionary entries, merely “the adoption of an element or elements of one culture or identity by members of another culture or identity.”
Asian Americans do not appropriate “white” or “European” culture by ballet dancing or playing the violin; “whites” or “Europeans” surely do appropriate Asian culture by using non-Asian actors in Japanese kabuki dance-drama.
For non-African Americans, dreadlocks or playing jazz are cultural appropriations; dying darker hair blond is not. A black opera soprano is hardly a cultural appropriationist. Wearing a poncho, if one is a non-Mexican-American citizen, is cultural theft; a Mexican-American citizen wearing a tuxedo is not.
Only a trained cultural appropriationist can determine such felonies through a variety of benchmarks. Usually the crime is defined as appropriation by a victimising majority from a victimised minority. Acceptable appropriation is a victimised minority appropriating from a victimising majority. A secondary exegesis would add that only the theft of the valuable culture of the minority is a felony, while the occasional use of the dross of the majority is not.
“Diversity.” This term does not include false-consciousness efforts to vary representation by class backgrounds, ideologies, age, or politics. In current Wokespeak, it instead refers mostly to race and sex (see “Race, class, and gender”), or in practical terms, a generic 30% of the population self-identified as non-white – or even 70% if inclusive of non-male non-whites.
“Diversity” has relegated “affirmative action” – the older white/black binary that called for reparatory “action” to redress centuries of slavery, Jim Crow, and institutionalized prejudice against African Americans – to the Wokespoke dustbin.
“Diversity” avoids the complications arising out of past actionable grievances, or worries about the overrepresentation or underrepresentation of particular tribes, or the class or wealth of the victimised non-white.
The recalibrated racially and ethnically victimised have grown from 12% to 30% of the population and need not worry whether they might lose advantageous classifications, should their income and net worth approximate or exceed that of the majority oppressive class.
Worth reading in full.
Stop Press: At Lockdown Sceptics we have been worried for some time about the lack of certain kinds of expertise on SAGE. But our minds have been put at ease by the discovery that Professor Iyiola Solanke of Leeds University is a member of SPI-B (Independent Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Behaviours). Professor Solanke specialises in research into race and racism, anti-discrimination law and intersectional discrimination.
“Mask Exempt” Lanyards
We’ve created a one-stop shop down here for people who want to buy (or make) a “Mask Exempt” lanyard/card. You can print out and laminate a fairly standard one for free here and it has the advantage of not explicitly claiming you have a disability. But if you have no qualms about that (or you are disabled), you can buy a lanyard from Amazon saying you do have a disability/medical exemption here (takes a while to arrive). The Government has instructions on how to download an official “Mask Exempt” notice to put on your phone here. You can get a “Hidden Disability” tag from ebay here and an “exempt” card with lanyard for just £1.99 from Etsy here. And, finally, if you feel obliged to wear a mask but want to signal your disapproval of having to do so, you can get a “sexy world” mask with the Swedish flag on it here.
Don’t forget to sign the petition on the UK Government’s petitions website calling for an end to mandatory face masks in shops here.
A reader has started a website that contains some useful guidance about how you can claim legal exemption. Another reader has created an Android app which displays “I am exempt from wearing a face mask” on your phone. Only 99p, and he’s even said he’ll donate half the money to Lockdown Sceptics, so everyone wins.
If you’re a shop owner and you want to let your customers know you will not be insisting on face masks or asking them what their reasons for exemption are, you can download a friendly sign to stick in your window here.
And here’s an excellent piece about the ineffectiveness of masks by a Roger W. Koops, who has a doctorate in organic chemistry. See also the Swiss Doctor’s thorough review of the scientific evidence here.
The Great Barrington Declaration
The Great Barrington Declaration, a petition started by Professor Martin Kulldorff, Professor Sunetra Gupta and Professor Jay Bhattacharya calling for a strategy of “Focused Protection” (protect the elderly and the vulnerable and let everyone else get on with life), was launched in October and the lockdown zealots have been doing their best to discredit it ever since. If you googled it a week after launch, the top hits were three smear pieces from the Guardian, including: “Herd immunity letter signed by fake experts including ‘Dr Johnny Bananas’.” (Freddie Sayers at UnHerd warned us about this the day before it appeared.) On the bright side, Google UK has stopped shadow banning it, so the actual Declaration now tops the search results – and Toby’s Spectator piece about the attempt to suppress it is among the top hits – although discussion of it has been censored by Reddit. The reason the zealots hate it, of course, is that it gives the lie to their claim that “the science” only supports their strategy. These three scientists are every bit as eminent – more eminent – than the pro-lockdown fanatics so expect no let up in the attacks. (Wikipedia has also done a smear job.)
You can find it here. Please sign it. Now over three quarters of a million signatures.
Update: The authors of the GBD have expanded the FAQs to deal with some of the arguments and smears that have been made against their proposal. Worth reading in full.
Update 2: Many of the signatories of the Great Barrington Declaration are involved with new UK anti-lockdown campaign Recovery. Find out more and join here.
Update 3: You can watch Sunetra Gupta set out the case for “Focused Protection” here and Jay Bhattacharya make it here.
Update 4: The three GBD authors plus Prof Carl Heneghan of CEBM have launched a new website collateralglobal.org, “a global repository for research into the collateral effects of the COVID-19 lockdown measures”. Follow Collateral Global on Twitter here. Sign up to the newsletter here.
Judicial Reviews Against the Government
There are now so many legal cases being brought against the Government and its ministers we thought we’d include them all in one place down here.
The Simon Dolan case has now reached the end of the road.
The current lead case is the Robin Tilbrook case which challenges whether the Lockdown Regulations are constitutional. You can read about that and contribute here.
Then there’s John’s Campaign which is focused specifically on care homes. Find out more about that here.
There’s the GoodLawProject and Runnymede Trust’s Judicial Review of the Government’s award of lucrative PPE contracts to various private companies. You can find out more about that here and contribute to the crowdfunder here.
And last but not least there was the Free Speech Union‘s challenge to Ofcom over its ‘coronavirus guidance’. A High Court judge refused permission for the FSU’s judicial review on December 9th and the FSU has decided not to appeal the decision because Ofcom has conceded most of the points it was making. Check here for details.
Samaritans
If you are struggling to cope, please call Samaritans for free on 116 123 (UK and ROI), email [email protected] or visit the Samaritans website to find details of your nearest branch. Samaritans is available round the clock, every single day of the year, providing a safe place for anyone struggling to cope, whoever they are, however they feel, whatever life has done to them.
Shameless Begging Bit
Thanks as always to those of you who made a donation in the past 24 hours to pay for the upkeep of this site. Doing these daily updates is hard work (although we have help from lots of people, mainly in the form of readers sending us stories and links). If you feel like donating, please click here. And if you want to flag up any stories or links we should include in future updates, email us here. (Don’t assume we’ll pick them up in the comments.)
And Finally…
We thought we’d publish a page from Google Analytics showing the steadily rising traffic that Lockdown Sceptics has been attracting since its launch. The early peak in May was due to Mike Hearn’s first Code Review of Ferguson’s model, but we surpassed that in September and peaked for a second time in October, thanks largely to Mike Yeadon’s first pieces for the site. In total, Lockdown Sceptics has had 8,834,733 pageviews since its launch eight months ago. Not too shabby.
Discussion
Comments
This week across the site:
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Why is it that Covid patients have been moved from hospitals in Kent to hospitals in Plymouth and Bristol, where the infection rate or statistics are lower? We are in lockdown yet you transfer infected patients? This is the same scam used by Ferguson ( him again) in the Foot and Mouth disease where cattle were deliberately infected in areas where no infections were previously recorded. Why is no one questioning the government on this?
Obviously to spread the virus around so a higher tier can be implemented.
This website and comments a huge comfort since I discovered it a few days ago. Feels like I’ve joined the resistance movement. Courage mes Amis!
Funny that the Guardian dislikes Boris as much as we do. Unfortunately, it’s for different reasons than ours.
Boris the Spider* has outlived his usefulness. Like one of those spiders that gets eaten by the female immediately after mating, he has no future function. After having achieved Brexit and the post Brexit trade deal with the EU, that’s it. We have no further use for him. Please Boris – leave the political stage now and let us get on with our lives.
* For the younger sceptic: there was a song by The Who of that title – can be found on You Tube.
From the foreword to the UK-EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement Summary:
“At the same time, our Agreement means that the UK will fully recover its national independence. At 11pm on 31 December, we will take back control of our trade policy and leave the EU customs union and single market. We will take back control of our waters, with this treaty affirming British sovereignty over our vast marine wealth. We will take back control of our money by ending vast payments to the EU. We will take back control of our borders and will introduce our new points-based immigration system at the start of next year. Most importantly, the agreement provides for the UK to take back control of our laws, affording no role for EU law and no jurisdiction for the European Court of Justice. The only laws we will have to obey are the ones made by the Parliament we elect.”
All hollow and pointless given that Johnson is now leader of Extinction Rebellion.
good grief, I never realised. I suppose his father would approve. Incidentally, why is the Green Party so overwhelmingly in favour (with a few honourable exceptions) of the Brussels regime, given the disaster of the common fisheries policy, and the incestuous relationship (so it seems) of the EU with big pharma?
(Last by the way. Almost certainly this time. 🙂 Happy new year one and all. They can take my rights, but they can’t take my decision to be happy in defiance of everything they can do!)
Indeed. Who knew ‘Taking Back Control’ meant such total self harm? Crashing the economy and criminalising us for loving our family and friends? Now all those bonkers EU dictats seem like the sunny uplands of this crazy dystopian place we find ourselves. If only we could go back I’d vote Remain this time if it meant we could have our old normal back. Because quite frankly Brexit now seems irrelevant.
Amazing isn’t it. I’ve wanted out for ages but 2015 now seems so much better than the current tragedy.
Watching a Patriots Bills NFL game. No people in the stands but they have cardboard cutouts of people at the back of the end zone. At the back, one cardboard cutout woman was wearing a mask.
Accidentally I switched to tv3, the london palladium equivalents – all the audience were TV screens ‘sitting’ in each chair in place of a person, with what I guess was a supposed zoom audience. It was a surreal this is beyond sanity moment.
Apart from a few you’re all dead men/women walking. There’s no way you get to re-inherit your beloved past. It’s gone. Until you finally wake up to the fact that the world you knew has changed beyond your recognition and beyond salvation the sooner you wake up to violence being the only recourse.
You do not live in a democracy, you do not live in a world that takes your concerns on board, you do not live in a society that respects your views (quite the opposite), you do not live in a country that is intrinsically ‘yours’.
You are marginalised, you are ridiculed and you are ignored. How much longer will it take to accept that the only way out of this is to physically harm those who would have you corralled, tagged and bent to their will?
This site is a vent. It allows the pressure to be released in a non-violent way, day by day. It allows the PTB to divert any co-ordinated uprising irrespective of if they control this site.
It is long gone time that the tumbrels rolled and ‘Madam’ was again gainfully employed (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JdyI1VfXf1I) The whole cartel of governments, ‘opposition’ and useful idiots (SAGE/Ind… Read more »
No down vote from me. The minute someone makes a stand, I will be at their shoulder, I only hope with many more like us. This is too important to roll over, this is the fight of our lives.
“Do not go gentle into that good night, Old age should burn and rave at close of day; Rage, rage against the dying of the light. Though wise men at their end know dark is right, Because their words had forked no lightning they Do not go gentle into that good night. Good men, the last wave by, crying how bright Their frail deeds might have danced in a Green Bay, Rage, rage against the dying of the light. Wild men who caught and sang the sun in flight, And learn, too late, they grieved it on its way, Do not go gentle into that good night. Grave men, near death, who see with blinding sight Blind eyes could blaze like meteors and be gay, Rage, rage against the dying of the light. And you, my father, there on the sad height, Curse, bless, me now with your fierce tears, I pray. Do not go gentle into that good night.… Read more »
Fuck me. Now you’re into poetry. The moment before you were ready to man the barricades. A couple of months ago it was all let’s take a close look at these scientific papers that might if might not support lockdowns. Yesterday it was all about the bankers.
Get a room, you two.
Yep – so much lurv.
Poetry upsets you now? The rest of what you wrote makes no sense, so I can’t comment, but feel free to elaborate.
I’m with you 100% but how does a middle age overweight man (such as me) with no access to weapons meant to fight back. Just seen the video of tonights demo in London and yes to get noticed it needed petrol bombs and a cop thrown off the bridge. The NWO is probably properly prepared for this. They know there will be riots and mass demo’s. I now know this has nothing to do with our government or SAGE, there is something much higher than this. We need to be smart and try and work what is not in their playbook to try and beat this. We need to know who the big players are in this. I’ve been told by somebody quite senior in a commonwealth country that Bill Gates is merely a puppet in this, and that soon enough we would know who they are. He warned me 4 years ago about this. We have to know who the players are and their goals, then be smart and work out how to beat this. we need to know If one country falls do they all follow?
The banking cartel is top of the tree. It has been for centuries.
You haven’t been listening to the teachings of the CCP. Didn’t you see the video of the CCP Professor describing how Wall St’s power had declined since the early the early 2000s. But maybe you do know all that. Yiu never used to mention bankers. Now you do. Strange.
Why’s that strange? Did you miss all of the regime change happening over the last decades? I don’t think the CCP were behind that.
Well I would hazard a guess that Tony Blair 🤮 is definitely one big player at the table.
Do me a favour. The Blair creature is a puppet. Always has been.
If you live in the USA, then you will have the weapons at your disposal to be able to do some damage to the enemy. Rest assured though, for every gun you may own, the state has a thousand. Only one winner there. And in the UK, we have fuck all.
Argentina is a great example to ponder. There have been many extremely violent uprisings there over the last few decades. The state won every time, hands down, and has as great a grip on power now than at any time since General Galtieri’s junta in the late 1970s.
Loyalty to the British state is muddied by the fact that its enforcers serve the monarchy, not the government.
If the brainwashing is deep in the general public, then it will be more or less unbreakable amongst those in the police, military and intelligence services.
Hootenanny…Jools Holland…bit sad I know. Had a singer on – Roisin Murphy – with her interpretation of Bowie’s “Let’s Dance”.
She seemed to change the words of the last verse to “How dare you tell me I can’t dance for the rest of my life?” Seemed rather heartfelt. Perhaps she had a friend or relative who loved dancing but was denied the chance to go dancing one more time before they died?
OK – just a straw in the wind but better there are straws than nothing at all. 🙂
UN Announces Biometric Digital ID Wallet
Not attempting to be profound just a mere observation. As I sit next to an open fire in a rather old fireplace, with a malt in hand, it strikes me how many new years have been spent staring into the flames of this very same hearth, many with similar angst or hope. It doesn’t matter how advanced we perceive ourselves with technology as we all stiĺl end up pondering our destiny in the flames of the hearth, as our ancestors have,
Thanks Cheshire cat for your purring feline water bottle description, resounded with a cat lover and which I have a couple of my usual residents waiting on my bed.
I’m happy you have cats too, they are such a comfort. I have 4 ginger boys one adopted from the Greek island of Syros.
In order for 2021 to be better than 2020, things will have to become even more surreal. The former world has gone and is never coming back. A new world awaits us, and our collective choices over the coming months will determine its nature. Grateful to be on the side of authentic humanity with you folks, win or lose.
Hear hear Richard. Hopefully it will be win, but I try not to build my hopes up too much!.
I’m holding out hope that exactly that surreality will make more people aware of the truth behind the lie being perpetuated upon them. Because only with numbers on our side do we beat this. I’ve never done resolutions, but I do this year. I will attend more protests, I will hand out more flyers, I will distribute the Light Paper, I will do everything in my power to spread awareness whilst continuing to take actions to protect those I love.
Yes, win or lose.
My only favourite billionaire Elon Musk has warned consistently of the dangers to humanity of AI and just plugging our brains into computer systems. We need to draw some firm boundary lines around our humanity and proceed slowly with any type of brain-computer interfaces.
In the immediate future I think people in the UK need to swallow their prejudices about Trump and accept he won by a landslide but the election was stolen by a combination of machine fraud, active fraud by individuals and electoral maladministration. The US election fraud battlemwill be the first big set-to of 2021. Even Jake Tapper is now admitting that there is battle ahead as 140 Republican Congressmen/women will chalet ge the result on the basis it was fraudulent.
The evidence of fraud is now huge.
The US electoral battlefield is just one among many between Globalism and populism.
I’ve been watching multiple videos of Elon Musk with Joe Rogan recently. I don’t think he’s the evil technocrat that many perceive him to be. He’s very awkward, possibly borderline autistic, but extremely bright. Fundamentally opposed to lockdowns as well. He said that Covid was clearly not a threat based on the Chinese experience. None of his teams based in China had any problems whatsoever.
Who knows what is going to happen in the USA. I firmly believe that whatever transpires there in the next few months will determine the path for the rest of the Western world.
Yet Musk is the one putting 12,000 satellites into orbit to achieve 100% global connectivity. A network one cannot escape from on the surface of the Earth. I don’t trust him.
I’m not surprised. You wouldn’t want people to support the one non-globalist billionaire among all those others would you? Loads of corporations have plans for similar networks but you choose to single out his company. Musk is the only multi billionaire I know who is not on the side of the globalists and wants to protect humanity.
I really hope he does but I find the prospect of a inescapable global network terrifying.
WTF are you on about? You’d only be part of his network if you joined his network.
This has been shared several times in the comments already, including by me. If you haven’t joined the dots yet on why global 5G coverage probably isn’t a good thing for humanity, then you probably need to have a good think about it instead of bullying me.
https://youtu.be/C1-0XKYAZII
I’m holding out for the old original normal. Otherwise what are we waiting/hoping/fighting for?
I think the point that was being made is that win or lose things have changed.If we win,the naive belief we have of benign government is gone forever;itself a product of being free from invasion from almost 1000 years.Something better will have to take its place.If we lose it doesn’t bear thinking about.
Happy new year to one and all. This site has been so important to me over the months and really helped me feel less alone. I’m not sure what we have to face in the coming months and beyond but this place feels like a safe haven. I haven’t commented a great deal and was originally Mrs Issedoff, Hellonearth seems more appropriate to how I feel right now. I’m not sure how much fight I have left at times when most around me seem to view me as a nutter. My brother spoke to me tonight like I was some great aunt with dementia that he needed to placate and felt sorry for!. Well, fuck them, I’m not the nutty one.
If you can keep your head when all about you
Are losing theirs and blaming it on you,
If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,
But make allowance for their doubting too;
If you can wait and not be tired by waiting,
Or being lied about, don’t deal in lies,
Or being hated, don’t give way to hating,
And yet don’t look too good, nor talk too wise:
Thank you.
Thank you Wolver, excellent reminder. I’ve screenshot that to read whenever I’m feeling just exactly that and how Hellonearth described.
Just heard that the WEF will be convening in Davos this January to discuss the 4th Industrial Revolution.
Not sure – think that’s scheduled for the Spring. The Jan “virtual” meet is “The Davos Agenda” – which I think is just the Great Reset rebranded.
How can we join ?
To contribute to the cause ?
😊
I think the minimum subscription is $500,000. Cheap at the price.
I say we take off and nuke the entire site from orbit. It’s the only way to be sure.
Well Happy New Year everyone! Just wanted to say thanks and stay strong. x
Right. I am not into Christmas or New Year. I have given both a good go over the years and I can claim some pretty memorable NYE’s. Sitting on a friends roof in Utrect watching some of the most insane firework abuse I have ever seem was pretty memorable.
The rave in the studios they filmed Big Brother in back in the old days was also unforgettable. The covert camera crews filming us captive munters was a thing I will not forget. The queue for the cloakroom that lasted until well past 10:00 am was also a thing never to be forgotten.
The all nighter at the Brixton academy Mega Dog was also an unforgettable night. The person who said they would put us up for the night changed her mind and so we had to find our way our of London on public transport on New Years Day. It was -7deg C out and we nearly froze to death. Its amazing how warm you can imagine a tube station to be when they open at 6:30 am and the realisation that they are stone cold was hard to take.
The bus driver at Paddington at 7:30 in… Read more »
Accentuate the positive, not easy I know! Happy New Year, they’ll never take us alive!
Beautiful. HNY
Oh to be muntered at a Fantazia NYE party in the 90s again. Take me back!
Thinking that myself tonight.18 again,no worries only hope and some doves
Happy New Year to all here, and especially to anyone, here or anywhere else, who has suffered this year due to, well, I dont need to say it do I?
When BBC bongs made way to ‘covid review of the year’, that was my signal to get out
Fireworks all over the place and at least two small scale outdoor parties in the fields and woods nearby.
Just kids being kids, but it made me so happy to see.
Thanks for helping me keep my shit together a little more than I would otherwise have managed, and getting it back together when I did lose it.
The battle continues…
Only put BBC on for the bongs – didn’t listen to anything else – too busy letting off a rocket and damning 2020 to perdition with a glass of scotch.
Happy New Year of fighting, Sceptics! Best wishes to all allies x
Happy New Year, Happy New Lawbreaking and thanks to Toby and all the team, including commenters, for helping me to stay sane (or at least not lapse further into insanity) in 2020.
Happy New Year to all of you at LS. Thank you Toby for keeping us sane.
Amen to that!
Happy New Year to all LS
Happy new year to one and all, including the Tobymeister.
I’ve chewed my way through it but I’m afraid you’ll have to elaborate your theory ….
Why couldn’t they just do the fireworks without mentioning the virus, the NHS, working from home, BLM etc etc? Cringeworthy cliches, but someone must have thought it was a good idea. Pass the sickbag.
Yes, bloody nauseating stuff. Was it done by the BBC? NHS hero worship, BLM adulation, and wokery to boot. As you say, pass the sick bag.
I’ll say one thing the drones were cool. The message was propaganda
Because its a big club and you’ve checked out
Which is a good thing by the way
The last thing I wanted at the very beginning of 2021 was a syrupy reminder of all the shit from 2020. OH wanted to watch but it was too much for me so I went off for a walk. Came back feeling much better having seen some fireworks and peple enjoying themselves!
Forgot to say, before I headed out, and while the propaganda was going on I just started singing Auld Lang Syne over it with as much gusto as possible. OH looked at me like I was mad 🙂
Because the onslaught of propaganda is relentless. They can not possibly have people observing the complete lack of a deadly pandemic not occurring around them. We must not see the total lack of exceptional numbers of new graves being dug in our church yards, nor the broadly normal seasonal health of our friends and family.
We will only make progress if we can draw as many as we can from their assorted telescreens and engage them in discussion on fact. My new year resolution is to do so as much as I can.
Watched some Russian New Year TV on YouTube (my wife is Russian) – much better than anything here – they still know how to make entertaining programmes.
Doen’t matter if you don’t speak Russian (I don’t), as music is music and fun is fun. It also meant that even if the ‘word’ was uttered, you wouldn’t understand it anyway, but it wasn’t.
Anyway, as they say in Russia, S Novym Godom, which is as you’ve hopefully guessed by now, Happy New Year!
Just realised it’s not WW3 going on outside but it’s actually midnight.
Happy New Lawbreaking (inadvertent or otherwise) to you all.
Fight the good fight with all thy might.
And thanks for being there, throughout 2020 and onwards!
Much love to you all, Cheezilla.
Happy new year everyone in these strange times!
Propaganda in full swing on the BBC!
You must have better things to do ……
Yeah, just curious to see for a few minutes what they come out with.
Sounds like the army have started operation Montgomery!
bong ! happy new year!
Let’s make sure we win the battle this year!
We’ll tak a richt good willie waught…
HAPPY NEW YEAR, EVERYONE!
And thank you, Toby.
Welcome to tier 2021
“The government was forced to ….” – the bottom line is we have had to endure lockdowns, tiers etc because the NHS is not fit for purpose – the management of our health system needs a complete overhaul although I’m not sure how this can be done?
On another note, just watching Michael McIntyre discussing the Brits at airports, obediently following the roped areas to check-in, even when empty – that’s what we are known for – being obedient! That’s why the government’s ‘rules’ have worked so well.
New Years Resolution !
Please attend an anti lockdown demonstration starting this Saturday in Shrewsbury or elsewhere .
Stand up for freedom.
If we had one I’d go. I don’t even know where to start it’s that barren.
Check out Telegram group Protest Everywhere.
There are LOADS if events happening on Saturday.
New Year’s Revolution!
Its strange isint it, but he’s never looked fully onboard, imo, and maybe using forced is what has happened. He still talks ****, but in this instance there seems to be something in his message, almost like he would like everyone to just rebel and get on with it
Apparently Johnson senior is a remainer and has applied for French citizenship
Did Kemal, I mean Johnson, junior, ever give up his US citizenship?
Yes. he had to, otherwise the US taxman would be after him.
He never had it. Stop talking bollox. He had the right to apply for it, that was all.