Day: 2 November 2020

by David Mackie The prospects for A-levels, GCSEs, and their Scottish equivalents in 2021 are uncertain. The Government has, to date, insisted that summer GCSEs and A-levels will take place in England, subject to a three-week deferral of the start of the timetable and some minor adjustments to the content of some syllabuses. In Northern Ireland, the plan at present is for A-level, AS, and GCSE exams to start one week later in 2021, but schools have been told to keep evidence of pupils’ progress in case it is needed as part of ‘contingency arrangements’. There will be some changes to examinable course content in some subjects, mainly at GCSE level. In Scotland, Education Secretary John Swinney announced on October 7th that National 5 exams would be cancelled in Scotland in 2021, to be replaced with teacher assessments and coursework, but that Higher and Advanced Higher exams would go ahead, with a delay of two weeks to the usual timetable. As for Wales, it was reported on October 29th that the independent review panel set up by the Welsh Government had recommended that all exams in 2021 should be cancelled; the Welsh regulator Qualifications Wales had recommended that GCSE exams be scrapped, but that some A-level papers be scheduled. Welsh Education Minister Kirsty Williams is to announce a decision on ...

Where Did SAGE Get 4,000 Deaths a Day? Blower's cartoon in today's Telegraph Spectator editor Fraser Nelson wrote a terrific blog post on Saturday evening, querying where SAGE got its 4,000 deaths-a-day figure from. Remember, it was this modelling that frightened Boris into abandoning his 'middle path' strategy in favour of a second lockdown. Just 10 days ago, Boris Johnson was attacking lockdowns for the "psychological, the emotional damage" they inflict: the effect on mental health as well as the economy. Then, he saw COVID-19 as a menace that could be managed with a "commonsensical approach" of local and regional measures. Now, he sees Covid as a monster capable of overwhelming the NHS and warns of a "medical and a moral disaster" if we do not do a stay-at-home lockdown. His view of the virus seems to have changed, utterly. Why?As soon as he started his statement, he turned to the graphs on which his case hangs. It was not so much new data, but new models showing new forecasts. Sir Patrick Vallance, the Chief Scientific Officer, ran through them: the same ones leaked to the BBC a few hours earlier. As we know, the first wave peaked at just over 1,000 daily deaths. The new graphs show deaths hitting 4,000 deaths a day – perhaps even as high as ...