Day: 2 October 2020

by Rudolph Kalveks We should always keep in mind the rationale for focusing on reported deaths, a.k.a. “the Canaries in the Mine”, in order to assess the state of the Coronavirus epidemic. The sensible reason for constructing models around death statistics rather than identified cases was given early on by the UK government’s advisers – “Reported deaths are likely to be far more reliable than case data…”1 The many factors that contribute to problems with case data, such as increased testing rates, false positives, the conflation of asymptomatic with serious presentations, and double counting, have all been echoed by numerous healthcare professionals in recent weeks and need not be elaborated here. Nonetheless, it is clear from the Worldometer death statistics that there has been some resurgence of the virus in European countries from late summer onwards. Should we be concerned that this is a “second wave”? Or are we merely seeing natural fluctuations in response to the many factors that influence the evolution of an epidemic, such as (a) inhomogeneous populations, (b) changes in virulence and (c) changes in social behaviour (whether in response to government restrictions, or otherwise)? Any such fluctuations must inevitably be compounded by the vagaries of national reporting systems. So, how can we objectively distinguish a “wave”, which may represent a cause for concern, from a ...

Lockdown Rebellion Gathers Strength "Fear is the path to the dark side. Fear leads to anger. Anger leads to hate. Hate leads to suffering." Boris Johnson's troubles are far from over as his sceptical backbenchers, emboldened by the concessions won over the Brady amendment, move on to new targets. Their latest is the arbitrary and counterproductive 10pm curfew, which is undermining an already battered hospitality industry. The Telegraph has more. Boris Johnson is facing a new rebellion on the backbenches, after his Government was accused of presiding over a "nanny state". Philip Davies, the MP for Shipley, told the Commons the 10pm hospitality curfew was doing untold damage to businesses and prompting "jobs to be lost, all just to see people congregating on the streets again". "When will the Secretary of State act like a Conservative and stop this arbitrary nanny state socialist approach, which is serving no purpose at all apart from to further collapse the economy and erode our freedoms," he asked Matt Hancock. Noting Mr Davies had voted against renewing the Coronavirus Act yesterday, the Health Secretary said the "hundreds of thousands of deaths that would follow is not a price to pay" for his colleague's preferred option of "just letting it rip". He added: "I do believe in individual responsibility and the promotion of freedom – subject to not harming others." The belief that ongoing extreme Government restrictions are all that stand ...