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Boris Panicked and U-Turned Over Lockdown After Seeing Neil Ferguson's Projections "I see death in your future – a lot of death." The Mail on Sunday is serialising an explosive new biography of Boris by Tom Bower that claims Boris was panicked into imposing a full national lockdown after Chris Whitty and Sir Patrick Vallance were presented with Neil Ferguson's apocalyptic predictions at a meeting of SAGE. Bower tells how a critical meeting of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) on February 25th was presented with the 'reasonable worst-case scenario' from Professor Ferguson under which 80% of Britons would be infected and the death-toll would be 510,000 people.The author writes: "This was an improvement on Ferguson's earlier assessment that between 2% and 3% would die – up to 1.5 million deaths. Even with mitigation measures, he said, the death toll could be 250,000 and the existing intensive care units would be overwhelmed eight times over."Neither Vallance nor Whitty outrightly challenged Ferguson's model or predictions. By contrast, in a series of messages from Michael Levitt, a Stanford University professor who would correctly predict the pandemic's initial trajectory, Ferguson was warned that he had overestimated the potential death toll by 'ten to 12 times'....The book reveals how shortly before the national lockdown, on March 16th, Ferguson forecast that one third of ...
