Fatties – You Don’t Need to Worry About Dying From Coronavirus
Matt Hancock has written an article for the Telegraph today in which he warns people who are “morbidly obese” that they are at a higher risk of dying from COVID-19.
Obesity is one of the greatest long term health challenges that we face as a country.
It not only puts a strain on our NHS and care system, but it also piles pressure on our bodies, making us more vulnerable to many diseases, including of course coronavirus.
The latest research shows that if you have a BMI of between 30 and 35 your risk of death from coronavirus goes up by at least a quarter.
And that nearly 8 per cent of critically ill patients with coronavirus in intensive care are morbidly obese compared at around 3 per cent of the country as a whole.
He concludes:
If everyone who is overweight lost five pounds it could save the NHS over £100 million over the next five years. And more importantly, given the link between obesity and coronavirus, losing weight could be lifesaving.
So just how great is the risk of dying from coronavirus if you’re a fatty?
According to the latest ONS infection survey data, about one in 2,300 people had COVID-19 in England in the week of July 6th to 12th. Now, that’s not very reliable because the false positive rate for the antigen test could easily be one in 2,300, so to confirm this the ONS would need to re-test anyone testing positive to confirm the result – which it hasn’t done, obviously. Nevertheless, let’s assume that’s correct – that the number of people infected with coronavirus in England is 1/2,300 or about 24,350 (56,000,000/2,300). We know that the number of new cases is declining because the R is less than one, but for the sake of argument let’s assume that after 14 days, when those 24,350 people have either died or recovered, they’ve each passed it on to one other person. So that means the total number of people infected in England over the course of a year is ~633,100 (24,350 x 26). Again, a huge overestimate, but let’s give the bed-wetters the benefit of the doubt. So if you’re an Englishman, your chances of contracting the virus over the course of the next 12 months is 633,100 in 56,000,000 or 1.13%.
Now what are your chances of dying from COVID-19 if you’re unlucky enough to get it? It varies with age, obviously, but let’s assume an IFR of 0.26%, the last-but-one CDC estimate which I suspect was a little high. Again, benefit of the doubt. That means the average chance of an Englishman catching and then succumbing to the virus are ~0.0029%. Let’s add Matt Hancock’s 25% – the increase in your chances of catching COVID-19 and dying if you have a BMI of between 30 and 35 – and it comes to ~0.0036% or one in ~27,777.78. That’s remarkably similar to your chances of dying in a road traffic accident in the UK – and remember, that’s all ages, so if you just look at under-65 year-olds your chances of dying from COVID-19 are far, far lower than your chances of dying in a road traffic accident, even if you’re morbidly obese.
Don’t worry, Mr Creosote. I think you’ve got room for one more wafer thin mint.
Teaching Unions Demand Compulsory Muzzles in Schools
It was inevitable. The General Secretary of the National Union of Bed-Wetters – I mean, the NASUWT – has called for face coverings to be mandatory in schools and colleges. The Telegraph has the story.
Patrick Roach, the General Secretary of the NASUWT teachers’ union, said: “The Government’s guidance for schools is now out of step with wider public health guidance and guidance to other employers where it is recognised that, where physical distancing cannot be assured, face masks should be worn.
“Teachers and other staff working in schools also want to be assured that, when they return to the workplace in September, they will be afforded the same level of protection as other workers, and that the guidance for schools will be brought into line with guidance for other workplaces.”
Mr Roach noted that Government advice means children over the age of 11 are required to wear coverings when they visit “a range” of facilities such as shops and banks. He said: “So there is a strong argument that face masks should also be made compulsory for children when they return to secondary schools in September.”
The teaching unions must know that only four children under the age of 15 have died from COVID-19 in the whole of the UK and no one has been able to document a single case of a child infecting an adult anywhere in the world. So why the insistence of face nappies? I can only assume it is to make it even harder for schools to re-open in September so the unions’ dues-paying members can extend their six-month holiday.
Stand firm on this one, Gavin Williamson. Make it clear that face masks won’t be required in schools and any teacher refusing to turn up for work in September will be sacked.
In the meantime, you can sign this petition started by Them For Us.
Stop Press: Some US colleges are insisting on painful nasal swab tests for all students every other day.
Track and Trace Programme is Unlawful
Lockdown Sceptics has a special correspondent who’s been following the slow-motion car crash that is Matt Hancock’s track-and-trace programme since it was first unveiled. Here’s his latest report.
The UK Government has conceded that its flagship contact tracing programme has been operating unlawfully since its May 28th launch.
Digital rights campaigners at the Open Rights Group (ORG) have forced the Government to admit that its track-and-trace programme has been operating unlawfully. The programme was not subject to a full Data Protection Impact Assessment (DPIA) as required under GDPR. If only they had paid attention to Lockdown Sceptics on May 28th, when we warned of precisely this risk. Apparently, the Government developed the scheme “at such pace and scale” that it was not a primary focus. So going at things in a rush is now a defence?
But who cares about DPIAs and GDPR? It’s not as if contact tracers are sharing patients’ data on social media. Oh wait, what’s this? Coronavirus contact tracers have been sharing patients’ data on WhatsApp and Facebook.
Where is our indomitable UK regulator in all this? It appears the Information Commissioners Office (ICO) see themselves as “a critical friend” of the Government providing guidance and advice. Well that’s nice, but if it is not too much trouble could they please do their job and take meaningful action on behalf of UK citizens?
Cut-Out-And-Keep “Mask Exempt” Cards
A reader has got in touch to point out that “Mask Exempt” cards are available for free from this medical centre’s website. Just download the PDF and print it out. The site even provides a handy dotted line so you can cut out the card and laminate it yourself. And the upside is, you are only claiming you have a “reasonable excuse” for not wearing a face nappy and not falsely claiming to have a specific disability.
Further to your post on lanyards today, I would like to contribute my experience.
I have so far been in three big chain shops since Friday, including Co-op, Waitrose and Currys. In each case I was, depressingly, the only mask dissenter.
I am uneasy with claiming a disability when there is no such reason at all for me to not wear a mask. I was therefore pleased to find the this PDF which I printed out and placed in a holder I had in a drawer. The wording of the dark blue ones is wonderfully appropriate – I have many very reasonable excuses! And my conscience is clear in not claiming disability. Perhaps it’s worth drawing this link to the attention of our friends?
Round-Up
Here’s a round-up of all the stories I’ve noticed, or which have been been brought to my attention, in the last 24 hours:
- ‘Beer sales rose in lockdown, and yet we drank less‘ – Contrary to popular myth, alcohol consumption actually declined during lockdown
- ‘Vietnam evacuating 80,000 from city after three positive COVID-19 tests‘ – After three cases?!? Guess how many have died from Covid in Vietnam in total since the pandemic began? Zero
- ‘Holidays in turmoil as quarantine is imposed‘ – What’s the next country to be removed from the travel corridor? France? Germany? Britons are cancelling their summer holidays in droves
- ‘Angry holidaymakers vent over new 14 day quarantine rule for Spain‘ – Poor buggers
- ‘Airline passengers “panicking” over quarantine‘ – Imagine being told on landing from a safe country that you have to quarantine for 14 days, which means not even leaving your house to get essential groceries. I’d panic, too
- ‘Benidorm in shock as UK’s quarantine “hammer blow” threatens to wipe out tourist industry‘ – Does this make Dominic Raab a bed-wetting version of Thor?
- ‘Regenstrief COVID-19 Dashboard‘ – For fans of Covid dashboards, this must take first prize. Tells you everything you need to know about Covid in the good state of Indiana
- ‘Shocking moment thieves in medical face masks raid Currys PC World – snatching phones and tablets as terrified staff look on‘ – Thieves are taking advantage of mandatory face coverings to rob shops. Who could have possibly foreseen that?
- ‘Workers are leaving the restaurant industry‘ – Depressing news from across the Atlantic
- ‘Most A-level and GCSE results will be decided by computer modelling, not teachers, in major U-turn‘ – Computer modelling? What could possibly go wrong?
- ‘Use glory holes for safe, socially-distanced hook-ups‘ – Advice for Canadian homosexuals in Pink News to protect themselves from Covid. You really couldn’t make it up
- ‘Why is this Government acting like a Lib-Dem, anti-car nightmare?‘ – Telegraph editorial poses a good question. Why have local authorities turned town centres into nightmarish labyrinths of one-way systems?
- ‘The troubling rise of the Covid contrarians‘ – Handy round-up of sceptical heroes in the Standard
Theme Tunes Suggested by Readers
Just one today: “No More Heroes” by the Stranglers.
Small Businesses That Have Re-Opened
A couple of months ago, Lockdown Sceptics launched a searchable directory of open businesses across the UK. The idea is to celebrate those retail and hospitality businesses that have re-opened, as well as help people find out what has opened in their area. But we need your help to build it, so we’ve created a form you can fill out to tell us about those businesses that have opened near you.
Now that non-essential shops have re-opened – or most of them, anyway – we’re now focusing on pubs, bars, clubs and restaurants, as well as other social venues. As of July 4th, many of them have re-opened too, but not all. Please visit the page and let us know about those brave folk who are doing their bit to get our country back on its feet – particularly if they’re not insisting on face masks! Don’t worry if your entries don’t show up immediately – we need to approve them once you’ve entered the data.
Note to the Good Folks Below the Line
I enjoy reading all your comments and I’m glad I’ve created a “safe space” for lockdown sceptics to share their frustrations and keep each other’s spirits up. But please don’t copy and paste whole articles from papers that are behind paywalls in the comments. I work for some of those papers and if they don’t charge for premium content they won’t survive.
We created some Lockdown Sceptics Forums, but they became a magnet for spam (apologies for mixed metaphor) so we’ve temporarily closed them. However, we can open them again if some readers volunteer to be moderators. If you’d like to do this, please email Ian Rons, the Lockdown Sceptics webmaster, here – and thanks to those who’ve already volunteered. We’ll be re-opening the Forums soon.
Shameless Begging Bit
Thanks as always to those of you who made a donation recently to pay for the upkeep of this site. If you feel like donating, however small the sum, please click here. And if you want to flag up any stories or links I should include in future updates, email me here.
And Finally…
Handy guide to what wearing a mask says about you, as compiled by American cartoonist Ben Garrison.
To join in with the discussion please make a donation to The Daily Sceptic.
Profanity and abuse will be removed and may lead to a permanent ban.
Dame Sally:
“I still think we should have locked down, although a week earlier…”
Good God Almighty.
Why not 8 days earlier?
8.5. It’s possible to do an awful lot in a half a day, when you put your mind to it.
When I worked for one of the Big 4 I achieved most between 7 am and 9 am, because there was nobody around to distract me and clients didn’t phone til after 9.
(I’m a morning person and persuaded my girlfriend that we should buy a house an 18 minute walk from my office and a 45 minute drive from hers!)
As a member of the so-called ‘laptop class’, even when I’m being ‘lazy’ working at home, I still get far more done than when I worked at offices constantly being distracted. On my own computer, I have everything I need, I know where all my files are, I have high speed internet, so I’m much better equipped than if I go to someone else’s office and constantly need access to their systems.
Another benefit is avoiding the watercooler conversations with idiot sheeple normies, covidians, metropolitan “liberals”, champagne socialists etc.
A small consultancy company I used to manage IT for had a ‘work anywhere’ philosophy for our consultants from really quite early on. Before the Internet became a useful world-wide comms tool we used banks of modems to allow our consultants to file their work and exchange messages with each other from more or less anywhere that had a phone line no matter what the timezone.
The consultants’ managers had a policy that all non-deployed consultants should attend a meeting in the office at least once a week. Partly to listen to the manager(s), but mostly to exchange thoughts and ideas with each other and their support staff. Most of them complained about the imposition of having to travel into the office even though many had been working in Africa or South America a couple of weeks before.
Avoiding interruptions might make the individual more productive but may make others less productive.
The comment for an earlier lockdown, was both a criticism and a support of government, one comment cancels the other. Typical political speech, according to the late Isaac Azimov and review a political speech by using the pros of a politicians speech to cancel the cons of that speech, the politician says nothing of relevance.
Still defending their harmful, costly, unconstitutional, human rights abusing, but above all, POINTLESS lockdowns.
The argument that closing down the schools may have been unnecessary is beyond stupid – we know that children catch and spread the virus, so if they were going to go and catch the lurgy and then spread it at home, there would be no point in shutting anything down. And there was no point regardless, because, just as Tegnell predicted, the virus was going to spread no matter what and those who would succumb to it, did and are still are dying from it, lockdowns and vaxx notwithstanding. No deaths have been avoided, at most the timing was altered.
The one question that I would like to see answered, but that I’m pretty certain will never be asked, will never be entertained, will never appear in a pandemic protocol – what would the outcome have been, what would it be in the future, if hospital capacity were increased by 10% or even 5%? After all, the entire BS was predicated on keeping the hospitals going, nothing else mattered. If keeping the hospitals going was the only thing that counted, why are we not focusing on a way of achieving that in the future and comparing the costs of increasing hospital capacity to the outrageous costs (which go well beyond financial) of the lockdowns and the vaxx garbage and the sucking up of health care staff to give people their ongoing doses of poison?
Unless, of course, keeping the hospitals going was just a bull shit excuse for a major power grab and a mega wealth transfer from the taxpayer to politicians and their billionaire owners.
In another fine post your final para says it all.
Also HCQ and Ivermectin
Aha. I don’t remember a squeak from them when it might have been helpful. Sounds like rats running for the shore before the boat sinks.
Well, you don’t say George.
SOMEONE made this decision and should account for it- but they never will- they might get a dame hood for example. It must NEVER happen again and it is down to us the British people to NEVER ‘obey’ these common purpose loons again. What are they gonna do shoot us all? Arrest us all?
I suspect he is one of many who have suddenly discovered scepticism. It is going to be like France after the war. Everyone was in the Resistance!
He’s not a sceptic. He believes there was a pandemic.
Come on tof, you don’t believe Osborne swallowed the pandemic story. He was in on the Scamdemic from the off.
Yes of course I was being lazy with my language. Osborne makes reference to a pandemic which isn’t the same as believing there was one. But he’s clearly not a sceptic.
Not a single sceptical column on anything by him or the ES during the last 3 years. To the contrary. Gene therapy shilling to this day.
Don’t recall a peep from Osborne at the time so he can jog on. So can the rest of them. Dear DS, please stop reporting on the “Covid inquiry”. It’s an illegitimate travesty, purely theatrical, the outcome of which is already determined. To report on it as if there is any semblance of legitimacy in it is to give it a credibility it does not merit. It’s actually way worse than merely being an expensive whitewash because it is in fact an integral part of of the Big Lie that there was a deadly pandemic called Covid. An emergency needs a £114M inquiry, a bad flu season requires some routine reporting and some articles in specialist journals.
Surely such lockdown planning would not have been warranted at the end of 2019 as the WHO actively recommended it should not be used to tackle a pandemic. Of course this recommendation was suddenly and inexplicably reversed in early 2020.
I’m still waiting to meet anybody who admits they were wrong about there being a 21st century Black Death, lockdowns or jabbing.
I know two people who got vaxxed and are more than happy to admit it was a huge mistake and are full on sceptics now. Both of them are exceptional individuals in many ways. I know a few who were sceptical from the start. Everyone else – nothing, like it never happened.
My ex is now admitting she doesn’t believe in global warming, so perhaps it’s a matter of time.
Perhaps it was your good influence that achieved that
Don’t believe a word.. Damage limitation.. Period.
Lock all the Marxists up…
I’ll be the key keeper
”We now live in a society where doctors destroy health, lawyers destroy justice, universities destroy knowledge, governments destroy freedom, the press destroys information, religion destroys morals and our banks destroy the economy.” Chris Hedges
Wow, how do we go through life basically not being able to trust any of the entities that we took for granted before? When you stop and think about it it’s quite a profound reality. Being red-pilled is harder than going through life docile and naive isn’t it?
”Our politicians have sold us “solutions” to Covid that were far, far worse than the disease, and have generally refused to admit to their mistakes, even when they saw the comparative success of regimes like Sweden and Florida that went a very different direction.
Among the more egregious falsehoods that were either stated or implied by official authorities, and uncritically echoed by mainstream media, were the following:
A part of me hankers after the times when I could just trust my government in a time of crisis. But if I am honest with myself, I have to admit that I’d prefer to live uncomfortably in the truth than comfortably in a fantasy built for me by someone who does not have my best interests at heart.”
https://davidthunder.substack.com/p/what-its-like-to-live-in-an-informational-13a
Excellent stuff. Thanks Mogs
Interesting how Dame Sally was out and away to her ivory tower a year before it all started up handing over the reins to the arch jabber &Galapagos tortoise impersonator Whitty. That Hunt also got out from under just in time to leave the disaster years to Hancock and his democidal urges. This is all very telling and there are no coincidences.
That Dame Sally mourns the loss of developmental time for little school children is one of more crocodilian examples of tear shedding I have ever heard. We may witness much more crying and blubbing before this sh*tshow of an enquiry drags itself to a sorry conclusion, but I do know that by the time it does that the people of this country will have seen with great clarity that most of the witnesses especially the ‘experts’ and politicians, scientists and advisers, to be either useful idiots, charlatans, Quislings or liars.
I’m certain of that. There is a rising disgust for what the government, and in fact nearly all those in parliament did on behalf of (bio-) defence departments and big pharma. You can see the growing panic in the US as Dr Hotez is called out by Rogan and RFK Jr. for the gain of function fraud he is. Our politicians are now so far out of step with what the people in this country can sense and work out for themselves that the damage is now irreparable. It ends in one of two ways. Both unpleasant.
I sense it will not end well for those who currently perceive themselves to be in some sort of control.
I know almost nobody who has admitted they were wrong or is showing the slightest interest in the “Covid inquiry”
They have moved on.
I think imposing the same level of restrictions again would be difficult but to think that anyone but a tiny minority is properly awake to just what a scam the whole thing was seems deluded
Anger about the Covid response is being channelled into Tory-bashing as people feel comfortable with that. Idiots.
I’m not saying everyone’s fully awake, of course not, but there’s slow tectonic movement, a sense of waste, loss, mismanagement, distrust of all the big themes, re net zero etc, woke nonsense. Tory bashing sure. But on real streets people sense and even know there was evil perpetrated.
If that’s your personal experience then I am glad and hope it’s indicative. Perhaps I am surrounded by an especially dense, conformist, air-headed bunch of dimwits.
Oh FFS!
Lockdown a week earlier requires all the evidence gathering (such as it was) to be considered a week earlier:
We could not sensibly have gone into lockdown without the Coronavirus Act 2020 being in place (yes, I know going into lockdown was not sensible – bear with me). So Coronavirus Bill would have to be introduced to Parliament on 12 March, lockdown announcement on 16 Mar and Royal Assent on 18 Mar. Health secretary to take emergency powers on 20 March. At least we then could not blame Prof Ferguson as he didn’t publish Report 9 until 16 March.
===
So, in fantasy world:
12 March Coronavirus Bill introduced to Parliament. By the end of 12 March there had been 39 deaths in the UK where Covid was mentioned on the death certificate. Of these 3 had been registered. (I think Parliament would not have passed the Bill without division with only three deaths registered).
16 March PM Bojo addresses the nations… ‘We’re going to do lockdown with immediate effect.’. By the end of 16 March 158 deaths but only 16 registered. Prof Ferguson’s Report 9 predicts half a million deaths.
18 March Coronavirus Act 2020 Royal Assent. By end of day 289 deaths but only 55 registered.
20 March Health Secretary takes emergency powers. By end of day 486 deaths but only 124 registered.
===
From retrospective analysis we know that the infections leading to the deaths that occurred around the peak of mortality on 8 April were occurring on 12 March (27 day lead time).
Not only would lockdown not have been approved a week earlier. It would still not have been effective.
We can see a slight beneficial kink in the cumulative mortality curve at around 19 April. 27 days after the real-life lockdown announcement. It is the only beneficial kink in the mortality curve and the effect lasts for just over a month. If that isn’t the beneficial effect of lockdown then there is no beneficial effect. The actual peak in mortality is on 8 April. Peak infections therefore occurred about 27 days earlier on 12 March. Lockdwn on 23 March did not disrupt peak infections. Even if it had been two weeks earlier lockdown could not have had any effect on the peak of infections or deaths.
Dame Sally is wrong.
There was no pandemic. If Covid exists, it’s an infectious disease very much like many other mild for most infectious diseases with which we’ve lived since time immemorial. I emphasise the word LIVED as opposed to the living death of lockdowns. We are social animals. We must not indulge in nit picking speculation regarding lockdowns. If that’s your bag, I want to live on a different planet to you. Leave us alone – by us I mean people who want to get on with the business of living.
I applaud your view that you want get on with the business of living. How did that go for you during the lockdowns and tiers nonsense?
If we let people like Dame Sally get away with repeating the ‘just a week earlier’ bullcarp without challenge people will start parroting it without thinking it through (parroting it as I think she is actually doing). We have to show that it’s not just wrong, but why it’s wrong and showing the working.
Well I certainly didn’t enjoy the Covid restrictions
My view remains that we must tackle the problem at the root and not in the specifics. If you tackle the specifics it usually turns out to be an endless rabbit hole.
Osborne admitted that when he was at the Treasury there was no planning down for a lockdown. Why should they have wasted time and money planning for a lockdown when at the time the government’s pandemic preparedness plan highlighted the importance of keeping as many businesses, not to mention schools etc, open as possible.
So here we have it. It has been said. Lockdowns were wrong, but as a politician, of course, I can’t possibly comment. They will never admit to making a mistake, they will obfuscate and prevaricate, PM’s have been removed for less.
Of course there were no plans for lockdowns carried out in Osborne’s Treasury.
Government Policy was that lockdowns were explicitly ruled out as a means of pandemic control.
Johnson capitulated to SAGE, media and international pressure.
It isn’t a pathetic lack of courage.
It’s the knowledge that if they dare retract their support for lockdowns/jabs and all the rest of the Globalist Agenda, their careers will be over 2 seconds after they’ve finished speaking.
Dame Sally the senior medic could not understand why bloodletting was not curing the patient but was convinced that cutting further up the body would surely work. She then cried some salty tears at the necessity of it all.
Dame Sally the senior medic could not understand why bloodletting was not curing the patient but was convinced that cutting further up the body would surely work. She then cried some salty tears at the necessity of it all.