Behavioural Science at its Worst
14 May 2024
No, the WHO is Not ‘Owned’ by Private Interests
14 May 2024
by Robert Kogon
Despite a winter Covid surge in the UK and Sweden, and even a spring one in Sweden, both countries now look set for a low mortality 2021. Did the "second wave" just bring deaths forward a few months?
Lockdowns do not explain why Denmark, Norway and Finland have had fewer deaths than Sweden. Border controls were the crucial factor during the first wave. And Sweden had more restrictions than Finland during the second.
Imperial College have repeatedly denied they made failed predictions of Sweden's death toll, claiming it was the work of others that they did not endorse. But new data has come to light showing this is not true.
Sweden's low excess mortality in 2020 undermines the pro-lockdown case. Defenders often counter that Sweden fared badly compared to its neighbours. There are several reasons why this is a bad argument, says Dr Noah Carl.
Sweden's Professor Johan Giesecke was back talking with Freddie Sayers yesterday, one year on. One of the first major figures to oppose lockdowns, he is unbowed: "I think I got most things right, actually."
The argument for lockdowns made a clear prediction concerning what would happen in Sweden. But that prediction was wrong. Up to week 51, the country saw age-adjusted excess mortality of just 1.7%, below the EU average.
Boris said the lockdown has been "overwhelmingly important". But several places have seen numbers decline absent a lockdown, and evidence suggests the infection peak in UK occurred before our three lockdowns were imposed.
France is in lockdown again as cases and deaths spike. But look more closely and you find a spike in testing too, leaving the positive rate flat. Plus, excess deaths are negative. Is it in a pseudo-epidemic of testing?
According to a joint analysis by Eurostat and Reuters, Sweden had lower excess mortality last year than 21 out of 30 European countries in spite of not locking down.
In its latest "reality check" the BBC takes to task seven of the most frequently shared "false and misleading claims". Unfortunately, it needs some fact checking of its own.
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