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How Have We Responded to Previous Pandemics?

by Toby Young
27 May 2020 5:13 PM

As we tot up the unintended consequences of lockdowns across the world, it’s worth bearing in mind that the quarantining of entire countries for extended periods of time is a new and untried strategy for managing a pandemic. Historically, there are very few examples of lockdowns being used before. The earliest historical example I can find is Florence in 1631, when an outbreak of the plague killed 12% of the population. More recently, Mexico in 2009, during the first days of an H1N1 influenza outbreak, isolated those suspected of being infected, closed schools, banned public gatherings and cancelled a regional soccer tournament. But those measures weren’t replicated in other countries and Mexico abandoned them after 18 days, partly due to the mounting social and economic costs.

We’re often told by lockdown enthusiasts that those US cities that introduced extreme social distancing measures during the Spanish flu pandemic experienced fewer deaths than those that didn’t. But those measures stopped well short of a full lockdown. For instance, in St Louis, which is often held up as a model of how to manage the current pandemic, churches and schools were closed, business hours were restricted and people were ordered to wear mask in public, but the city never issued a stay-at-home order and only cancelled business activity entirely for about forty-eight hours.

Also worth noting that lockdowns weren’t even suggested during America’s deadliest bouts of seasonal flu since 1919. In 1967-68, flu killed about 100,000 Americans and in 1957-58 it killed about 116,000. As of yesterday, the COVID-19 death toll in the US was just over 100,000. As a side note, it now looks almost certain that the outbreak in Germany, which Angela Merkel described as the worst crisis to afflict the country since the Second World War, will kill fewer people than the seasonal influenza outbreak in 2018 – and no thanks to the lockdown Chancellor Merkel ordered. Der Spiegel has published the daily mortality figures for Germany, which show infections beginning to fall before the more extreme measures were introduced. And there’s been no sustained uptick in infections in Germany since the the lockdown was lifted, something that’s also true of every other country – and every US state – that’s eased extreme social distancing measures.

So why the rush to lock down citizens across the world in response to coronavirus? It’s all the more surprising when you bear in mind that the World Health Organisation (WHO) specifically recommended against quarantining as a strategy for managing the outbreak of a flu-like pandemic in a report it published in 2019. This was drawn to my attention by a reader with a background in epidemiology and public health who says she’s been horrified by the unquestioning acceptance of the Covid response measures by her colleagues whom she expected to be more capable of critical thought. The WHO report even stopped short of recommending the quarantining of exposed individuals. No doubt some people will point out that COVID-19 isn’t a flu-like illness, so more drastic measures are called for. But the WHO report says that quarantining wouldn’t have done any good as a way to mitigate the impact of Spanish flu, a much more deadly virus than SARS-CoV-2.

What changed the WHO’s mind and prompted it to praise the response of the Chinese authorities in Hubei province, which included the virtual incarceration of 60 million people? It was this, more than anything else, that persuaded governments across the world to lockdown their citizens.

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6 Comments
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Pauline Farmer
Pauline Farmer
5 years ago

Perhaps it was just panic, as all rational thought seemed to fly out the window. Also, aren’t there links between WHO and China? WHO’s President used to work there, didn’t he?

7
-1
Sarah Lewis
Sarah Lewis
4 years ago

Perhaps the second (now first) biggest funder of the WHO had some influence? Bill Gates

5
-1
Mac
Mac
4 years ago

I live in the U.K and have lived through the 1957 & 1968/9 pandemics, both new coronavirus strains with no cure or immunity.
There were no lockdowns, no panicking or panic buying, life went on as normal.
In 1957 33000 people died = around 45000 today, in 1969 85000 people died = around 100000 today.
During the 2017/2018 flu season 58000 people died [5 months]
1600 people die every day with various things
After this is all over and governments take stock of the fallout [mass unemployment, losing homes, cancelled surgery ect] I hope they decide it was a bad idea and to carry on as normal next time

16
0
Adam
Adam
4 years ago

The current British government is a joke led by one which must be shown the door ASAP and all the laws and restrictions repealed as they are illegal

13
0
Mr T
Mr T
4 years ago

It strikes me that in the uk our use of lock down has been so slow and all measures use have done nothing to slow the production of virus, we unwittingly have adopted the Harington decleration anyway, I was reading up on the 1967 “wohan flu” so called ,marked as deadly to elderly people, why the infection rate was much lower than the 1954 outbreak, there conclusion was that amunity had carried across from 54 to 67.

2
-3
neilwilkes
neilwilkes
4 years ago

The CCP spent their money well.
Our press and Academia is so infiltrated by the Chinese that all these institutions now do is promote the CCP party line and there is no sign of this ending any time soon – things will not calm down, they will in fact calm up!
The next set of Global Lockdowns will be for the ‘Climate Emergency’ – just wait & see, and to hell with science as the modern left simply cherry pick, just as they do over climate.
Big Government & Authoritarianism never solved anything except for silencing all dissenting voices. I never expected to live under a tyranny in the UK where we are all treated as threats to each other.
NO FACE NAPPIES
NO LOCKDOWNS

Final thought:
If this is as deadly as claimed (and I do not believe it is for one minute) then where are the special bins for disposing of all the used Face Nappies that are, if the media & SAGE are to be believed, a biohazard? Every time I go out I literally lose count of the sheer number of these disgusting things just thrown away in the street & dumped in the gutters.

15
0

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