Or they will do their best to not report child deaths and wrangle the numbers as is their track record...
Ultimately, forgetting 'cases', all we really need to know is that the total deaths for the week ending 18/07/21 in England were just 43 people out of a population of over 55 million, 38 of whom had pre-existing conditions. As usual, there were no deaths from either group in the under 19 years old age range. 36 were over 60.
5 (allegedly) healthy people died from covid out of 55 million last week. I'd say the science proves we need another lockdown and greater restrictions.... says nobody who really follows science of any kind.
Last week it jumped up to 12 'healthy' people, but the last time it reached those heady heights was March. Between then and now it has hovered around....zero!
Deaths from covid amongst the healthy are the same as in the same period last year and pretty much identical but for one week later last year amongst those with pre-existing conditions. You remember last year, when we had no vaccine.
With no vaccine, from August last year total deaths we trickling around 50 a week, all but 1 or 2 of whom had pre-existing conditions and 90% of those were over 60 and more than half of those were around the age of UK life expectancy.
On my previous response to fon regarding the difference the vaccine makes I produced the NHS figures that shows there are more hospitalisations per case than there were for the same period last year pre vaccine in the 'medicine' section
As ZOE is a self reporting system and not a controlled survey its numbers are basically worthless from an epidemiological point of view.
Which is fair enough. But doesn't the same apply to VAERS?
As ZOE is a self reporting system and not a controlled survey its numbers are basically worthless from an epidemiological point of view.
Which is fair enough. But doesn't the same apply to VAERS?
Not really. The VAERS system captures only a small percentage of actual adverse reactions but its use is mandated for all those who give vaccinations in the US. At least in the states I am familiar with. Last time I looked its use is part of the standard training for those giving vaccinations who dont have the relevant state accreditation. Like MD's , nurse practitioners etc where it is already assumed to be known about.
The under-reporting problems with systems like VAERS is that they are not very good at accurately capturing delayed adverse response, mild adverse responses and more serious adverse responses in people who already have comorbities. Where any causality is often difficult to prove. But thats a given with this kind of system.
These are known problems and have been quantified in the past with equivalent systems. So the normalization of the data can be depended on, mathematically, to produce final results which can be very useful.
VAERS data is basically a lower resolution and nosier version of part of the data produced by large scale Phase III clinical trials.
But a self reporting app like ZOE is at best a very low quality / no quality data source for any kind of epidemiological data. Because the apps data is the classic example of a statistically non representational population sample.
If the app users were selected rather than self selected that data might possible have some value. But only if the symptoms of interest were infection specific and the infection of interest was the highest probability infectious agent in the sample population. Bu the symptoms of SARs CoV 2 are non-specific and the prevalence of other respiratory infections with similar symptoms is almost one order of magnitude greater than SARs Cov2 in the general population at any given time.
Which is why the app data is just noise. Mathematically speaking. Pink noise actually.
Now if they gave the app to people on admittance to hospital for tracking HAP source SARs Cov 2. Now that might be useful. But they are not doing that.
There is a fairly good albeit small live model on the efficiency of the vaccines at preventing PCR positive test results ; and it has become particularly interesting over the past fortnight.
It is fully vaccinated Gibraltar.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Gibraltar
There looks like relative % surge in PCR cases in the last couple of weeks.
Gibraltar [population circa 32,000] has been interesting as there was rapid first roll of vaccines
“….Gibraltar began rolling out its vaccination programme on January 9 using the Pfizer vaccine and by Sunday night had administered 5,847 doses—covering around 17 percent of the population…..”
Resulting in a surge in deaths;
"This is now the worst loss of life of Gibraltarians in over 100 years. Even in war, we have never lost so many in such a short time," Picardo said.
“….Almost all of those who died over the weekend were in their 80s and 90s….”
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2021-01-gibraltar-reels-covid-deaths-quadruple.html
Almost certainly the first recipients of the vaccine?
The cumulative deaths went up from about 20 to 80 or 400% as the vaccination proceeded.
With a mere 25% increase in cumulative cases.
It makes the following statement quite incredible.
