It is pretty clear that almost every SAGE/Imperial etc. model has been wrong in its predictions to a significant degree. For example, we know that Vallance's notorious 4,000 deaths a day figure in October was wrong. There is lots of discussion and debate about how the predictions for what would happen if we didn't lock down have been wrong. But I wonder, can anyone help with the following question?
Have we been told what the models predicted for cases/deaths in the event that the Government did impose lockdown?
I seem to recall a suggestion before the first lockdown that a figure of 20-30,000 deaths would be a "good" result if we locked down.
But what was the Government actually told would be the cases/deaths if they implemented lockdowns 1, 2 and 3?
This may all be out there already, but if anyone knows the answer, or can point me to the source for this information, I'd be very grateful.
