27 March 2021  /  Updated 17 July 2021
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unvaccinated Delta variant death numbers higher than unvaccinated

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chrisexup
(@chrisexup)
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StPiosCafe
(@stpioscafe)
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25th June 2021 info, from ;

https://www.infowars.com/posts/latest-uk-data-vaccinated-people-3-times-more-likely-to-die-from-delta-variant-than-unvaccinated/

Relax this is pure hogwash only believed by fools, and it really is the actual scare story that stopped Boris (since he's thick and fell for it) from going ahead on June 21. It is easy to show why this is fake news: I have to be quick:

Just Imagine if 100% of people were vaccinated, then all deaths from the delta variant would be of vaccinated people and none would be in unvaccinated people. So it's meaningless. This means: as the ratio of the vaccinated grows, there must come a point, as the unvaccinated group dwindles, at some point deaths in vaccinated people outnumber those in unvaccinated people. Eventually there would be hardly any unvaccinated people, you have to use your head.

These facts are because any vaccine is less than 100% effective. One thing to add, the total number of deaths is much smaller to start with than there would otherwise have been without vaccine, but when deaths are so rare, these weird anomalies crop up.

It is dangerous to listen to InfoWars. This is the sort of crap it thrives on. It is a famous fake new/misinformation channel.

I've done my best.


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StPiosCafe
(@stpioscafe)
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25th June 2021 info, from ;

https://www.infowars.com/posts/latest-uk-data-vaccinated-people-3-times-more-likely-to-die-from-delta-variant-than-unvaccinated/
You have to use your head.

This is how it works:

If the size of of vaccinated group outnumbers the unvaccinated group (true)
and if the vaccine is not 100% effective (true)

then the number of victims in the vaccinated group will eventually be as big or bigger than the number in the unvaccinated group.

If everybody was vaccinated, ALL the deaths would be in the vaccinated group.

This article is pure fake news, spread by numbskulls.


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Splatt
(@splatt)
Joined: 9 months ago
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This is what happens when you give 5 year olds numbers to look at.

They add them up and come up with nonsense.

The fact the PHE report concisely describes WHY the figures are this way doesnt bother them because they didnt make any effort to read it or see context.

Ultimately as you said, if we vaccinated everybody then ALL the deaths would be vaccinated individuals and no deaths in unvaccinated. So that would "prove" that vaccines are dangerous.

It would also prove if you're vaccinated you're much more likely to die in a road accident than unvaccinated. Or get struck by lightning. Or have ginger hair.


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lordsnooty
(@lordsnooty)
Joined: 3 weeks ago
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that would "prove" that vaccines are dangerous.

Yeah right, but it has duped a few sceptics, as well as the PM. It's a funny thing, but some people just don't have a enough matter in their frontal cortex to automatically or ever let the implications of figures sink in, they resist them. Hence you get bald titles like "unvaccinated Delta variant death numbers higher than unvaccinated".

it was designed to decieve. And that is why Churchill wrote about "Lies, damned lies, and statistics". I don't think churchill was anti-science but he also said: "Scientists should be on tap, but not on top". Let that sink in for a minute, too.


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Splatt
(@splatt)
Joined: 9 months ago
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This article is pure fake news, spread by numbskulls.

Its Infowars. One of the most well known batshit conspiracy nutcase sites on the internet.
You can immediately discount anything posted by anyone linking to it.


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halfhearted
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jmc
 jmc
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25th June 2021 info, from ;

https://www.infowars.com/posts/latest-uk-data-vaccinated-people-3-times-more-likely-to-die-from-delta-variant-than-unvaccinated/

Relax this is pure hogwash only believed by fools,

[ failed attempt at basic mathematics deleted]

I've done my best.

First, inforwars is 99.9% noise and almost no signal..but there is the occasional signal.

Second, you really dont seem to understand even basic statistics and the mathematics involved.

This is the way it actually works.

We have a population which are 10% high risk / 90% low risk (according PSI/PORT or equivalent)

The vaccine is claimed to reduce infection health risk by about 10x (published claimed efficacy rates)

The high risk population is vaccinated at a much faster rate than the low risk (as expected).

Once the total population vaccination rate goes above 20% the majority of those vaccinated are low risk.

As the total population vaccination rate goes up the ratio of high risk to low risk in the vaccinated population starts approaching the ratio in the general population but will always remain higher.

If the claimed efficacy rates for the vaccines are correct then there is no possible solution where the case rate in the vaccinated population will be higher than the unvaccinated group except when the total population vaccination rate was far less than 10% and if very few low risk people were vaccinated. Once the total population vaccination rate went into double digits the relative case rate for both groups, vaccination against unvaccinated should have quickly reached a equilibrium point in the 4x to 6x less risk range.

So the mathematics is very simple. Unless the case rate among the vaccinated is at least 3 to 4 times lower (minimum) than the unvaccinated the actual vaccine efficacy is much lower than claimed for high risk people. Which is exactly what would be expected based on the many decades of experience with influenza vaccines. Vaccines dont work very well with old sick people. The high risk population. The actual efficacy is less than 20%. Often far less.

So yes, the case rate among the vaccinated will of course as expected be higher than the unvaccinated. Because of science. And mathematics.


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Nobody
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Nobody
(@nobody)
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miahoneybee
(@miahoneybee)
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Game set and match again jmc..some characters are gluttons for punishment.. still god loves a trier....
😉🤣


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jmc
 jmc
(@jmc)
Joined: 10 months ago
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Game set and match again jmc..some characters are gluttons for punishment.. still god loves a trier....
😉🤣

Posters like that are very useful. When an erroneous explanation honestly made can be corrected. As long as these people dont cop an attitude I'm always glad to provide a better explanation to correct any mistakes. Which hopefully readers might find useful.

My day job often involves taking very complex mathematics and mathematical models and turning them into a form that does not fail when used as tools to solve real world problems. So I have developed a good nose for potential problems, unsupported assumptions and stuff that just does not work when mapped into the real world.

When someone published a scientific paper with bad assumptions, bad data or unsupported conclusions there are very rarely any penalties for such sloppy work. Most published papers are not read and very few errors no matter how profound are ever corrected. In my day job if such mistakes are made there are very serious repercussions. Senior management gets all shouty. As do the people who pay the bills. And often millions of dollars of time invested has been wasted. So there are big consequences to sloppy work.

This is the compete opposite of the scientific publishing world at the moment. Where sheer volume (no matter what quality) is rewarded by academic advancement and sloppy work and gross errors are almost never penalized. Which is why most published papers have little scientific value. And most "scientific" explanations you read in the media are wrong. For very basic reasons.

So yet another example of Gresham's Law in action.


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Hardliner
(@hardliner)
Moderator
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A very interesting snippet, jmc, thank you. 'Academia' has become an end in itself


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miahoneybee
(@miahoneybee)
Joined: 10 months ago
Posts: 1569
 

I remember a few times you have mentioned that JMC hence why I take on board your posts knowing that you know your stuff..
Thanks.
😀


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lordsnooty
(@lordsnooty)
Joined: 3 weeks ago
Posts: 76
 

Game set and match again jmc..some characters are gluttons for punishment.. still god loves a trier....
😉🤣

I enjoyed Splatt's explanation
This is what happens when you give 5 year olds numbers to look at.


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