I think we are playing out a farce over an extended period to cover their backsides - which are the source of their rhetoric.
Yes, that would seem to make sense for the UK government. But what about the other governments around the world? There is something more in play here.
The control in the experiment is Sweden which didn't impose a lockdown. I understand 'the legal framework within which the government of Sweden operates does not directly allow it to impose draconian measures, such as a widespread or nationwide shutdown.' Sweden is back to normal for all eyes to see. The Swedish model would be the model to copy, so why the lockdowns?
I would really like to have the confidence that @jmc has that Thai it total incompetence. Certainly a lot of it is, and a large proportion of that has led to where we are now.
I’m presently obsessed with VAT payments and furlough numbers. The next set of VAT stats are due for release on Wednesday. I’ve said it before, last 1/4 vat remittances turned negative and this most recent set are likely to be a bloodbath. The spin off is that with no profits (which is more or less implied by low / non existent vat receipts) then no other taxes can be levied either.
To my mind the question is not “should they be locking down” but how the hell can they actually get the thing going again. I think it’s in the mortuary and the bulk of economic activity is on borrowed time.
Now that part of it would have been predictable. Furthermore the banks know more or less how much pressure an individual business is under by looking at cash flow pressure through the account. There are probably models that can be run on this stuff.
For me the jury is out. But what he is absolutely correct about is that’s it’s no good pontificating about it because there’s nothing you can do. Focus on getting your own house in order for survival as best you can.
Roll on Wednesday! But don't worry the IMF will bail us out and we'll all be living in a socialist utopia. It'll work out this time because as we all know, it's not been tried properly before. 😯
I think we are playing out a farce over an extended period to cover their backsides - which are the source of their rhetoric.
Yes, that would seem to make sense for the UK government. But what about the other governments around the world? There is something more in play here.
Everyone has backsides.
The control in the experiment is Sweden which didn't impose a lockdown. I understand 'the legal framework within which the government of Sweden operates does not directly allow it to impose draconian measures, such as a widespread or nationwide shutdown.' Sweden is back to normal for all eyes to see. The Swedish model would be the model to copy, so why the lockdowns?
The model that got copied, unfortunately, was that from Imperial College. Maybe it looked better on the catwalk.
I think we are playing out a farce over an extended period to cover their backsides - which are the source of their rhetoric.
Yes, that would seem to make sense for the UK government. But what about the other governments around the world? There is something more in play here.
The control in the experiment is Sweden which didn't impose a lockdown. I understand 'the legal framework within which the government of Sweden operates does not directly allow it to impose draconian measures, such as a widespread or nationwide shutdown.' Sweden is back to normal for all eyes to see. The Swedish model would be the model to copy, so why the lockdowns?
Sweden is in a different place to us though, and many other countries too. For other reasons - namely, compliance.
There's recent news articles, and there was a bit on msm news some months back, a big portion of their population are microchipped.... instead of an ID swipe card to enter your work building: a chip in your forearm; instead of medical records: a chip in your wrist; instead of cash : a chip in your hand... reports that the country is surging towards 99% cashless & microchipping.. until of course there's a data breach. or someone just turns off your bank account. Then what??
I agree with what JMC posted. This is more to do with generalized incompetence, randomness, panic and herd mentality than a conspiracy.
No one can tell the future, but you can certainly make some educated guesses about the trends. I was telling friends by the second week of February that this coronavirus thing looked pretty serious and was likely to become a big deal (although I didn't expect it to become this big). Then the whole world started to panic in mid-March and I started telling everyone that the disease just didn't seem that serious and people were panicking unnecessarily - I even explicitly said that China-style lockdowns had the potential to cause more harm than the disease. Little did I know.
Speaking of that incidentally - a poster above said something about how birds fly in formation by taking subtle cues from other birds immediately around them. It's the same thing with people.
The biggest reason we have lockdowns as the default government strategy is that the pandemic started in China and they (being China) locked down hundreds of millions of people and welded doors to apartment buildings shut etc. That set "lockdown" as the default strategy in people's minds and then Italy normalized it in Europe and the rest is basically history (literally). If the pandemic had started (for example) in Germany, they would never have locked down and it would never have been normalized as a strategy.
I also have to say that our "muddling through" is a real asset in this country. It means we don't end up going too crazy.
I agree with everyone here about how stupid lockdown is and the damage we are doing to our society and economy (and how much of a shower the Government are), but honestly, it could be a lot worse. They are at least *trying* to balance COVID and other concerns, and there is a genuine debate about all of this in Cabinet and the whole country and media (especially in the last few weeks - October onwards - the worm really is turning).
Forget having your door welded shut in China - we could be in 6 month plus indefinite lockdown in Melbourne, or entering another 6 week lockdown in Ireland with the *entire* political class cheering it.
I recommend the excellent book The Splendid and The Vile by the way - it's an account of the year May 1940 to 1941 focussed on Churchill and the people around him based on diaries and letters. Very readable and compelling but also an excellent account of the sheer randomness of events and how easily things could have gone in completely different directions in so many ways - the randomness JMC is talking about.
Note:
1. The above does not mean conspiracies don't exist. Of course they do. But they mostly tend to cancel each other out or have relatively limited effects - it's very difficult to have a super-secret, competent, global conspiracy that achieves all its goals and manages to stay secret.
2. The above also doesn't mean that competent individuals don't exist. Of course they do - but they still have to work within the framework of the system. There are also times and places in history where groups and entire political classes were (on average) competent - but that never lasts long as over a few generations the political elite tend to lose touch with the common man and the feedback loop breaks, leading to an elite, insulated political class that lives within its own bubble and is immune to input from outside it - it only hears and believes whatever reinforces its worldview. Does that sound familiar to anyone here? (LOL).
In extreme cases (we are not there yet), that kind of political class elite insulation leads to guillotines and beheadings French Revolution style - I hope Boris comes to his senses and picks up on the mood of the general public about lockdowns the way he did about Brexit (not to make this a history lecture, but one of the many reasons why there was never a French Revolution equivalent in this country was because the English aristocracy were spread around the country and lived - mostly - on their estates and were a lot closer to the common people than the French aristocracy who were all forced to live in the Versailles/Paris bubble...).
