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Should We Have Relied More on Historical Comparisons and Less on Epidemiological Models?

by Noah Carl
22 June 2021 11:26 AM

During the pandemic, the British government has relied heavily on epidemiological models when deciding what course of action to take (e.g., whether to tighten or loosen restrictions). The advice it has received in this regard comes from the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (SPI-M), a body comprising 82 scientists from institutions across the U.K. 

Most influential (and infamous) have been the epidemiological models developed by Neil Ferguson’s team at Imperial College London. Indeed, the Government initially appeared to be following a focussed protection strategy; it was only after the publication of an alarming report by the Imperial College team that lockdown became the official policy. (Ferguson and colleagues’ report has since been described as the “catalyst for policy reversal”.)

As late as March 5th, Chris Whitty told MPs on the Health and Social Care Committee: “We will get 50% of all the cases over a three-week period and 95% of the cases over a nine-week period.” He explained: “What we’re very keen to do is not intervene until the point we absolutely have to, so as to minimise economic and social disruption.” And he added that “one of the best things we can do” is to “isolate older people from the virus”.

Dominic Cummings has since confirmed that the Government did abandon its original plan at the last minute. He claims, “No10 was made aware by various people that the official plan wd lead to catastrophe.” 

However, the epidemiological models that served as the basis for lockdown – both here and elsewhere – have come under substantial criticism. They made highly untenable assumptions, such as that seasonality and voluntary behaviour change do not affect transmission. This, in turn, led to disastrous forecasting errors. For example, Neil Ferguson’s team predicted there would be 85,000 deaths in Sweden; to date, there have been fewer than 15,000 (and that figure’s probably an overestimate).

In a new paper published in History and Philosophy of the Life Sciences, George Heriot and Euzebiusz Jamrozik argue that we should have relied more on historical comparisons, and less on epidemiological models. 

They point out that “twenty-first century human communities may bear greater resemblance to communities in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries than to an abstracted representation within an epidemiological model”.

The authors note that the transmissibility and lethality of COVID-19 are “are well within the range described by respiratory viral pandemics of the last few centuries”, whereas the Spanish Flu of 1918 is “the clear outlier”. They suggest that the 1889 flu pandemic (sometimes termed the “Russian Flu”) offers a particularly close historical analogue to COVID-19.

According to the authors, “The historical record may provide a richer and more useful understanding of the range of medium- and long-term consequences… than even the most complex mathematical model.” And they go on to say: “Every established respiratory pandemic of the last 130 years has caused seasonal waves of infection and has culminated in viral endemicity.”

Heriot and Jamrozik’s article provides a much-needed antidote to the Government’s modelling malady and is worth reading in full.

Tags: HistoryLockdownsModelling

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41 Comments
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Winston Smith
Winston Smith
3 years ago

The short answer is ‘Yes’!

15
0
realarthurdent
realarthurdent
3 years ago

The main conclusion from the pandemic is that governments should have done very little at all. If they had done so, fewer people would have died, and we would be in much better shape economically.

The progress of the virus has been remarkably uniform throughout the developed world, regardless of what governments have done.

42
0
Moist Von Lipwig
Moist Von Lipwig
3 years ago

Historical comparisons are real, modelling is the substitution of imagination for reality.

19
0
RickH
RickH
3 years ago
Reply to  Moist Von Lipwig

I don’t think it’s been as intelligent as imagination.

7
0
Moist Von Lipwig
Moist Von Lipwig
3 years ago
Reply to  RickH

Who says imagination is intelligent?

Or, in this case, that there weren’t false assumptions fed into the modelling?

2
0
Catee
Catee
3 years ago

“Should We Have Relied More on Historical Comparisons, and Less on Epidemiological Models?”
Does a bear sh*t in the woods?

17
0
Mark
Mark
3 years ago

My response when I saw this last week was that it is basically the final vindication for all those who (correctly) characterised the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic as basically flu.

It’s a cold rather than a flu, but the significant point is that it is basically just another typical pandemic irruption of a seasonal respiratory virus, blown into a huge catastrophe by panic overreaction. Shame on them all.

“The infectivity and severity of SARS-CoV-2, whether assessed by statistical parameterisation (basic reproduction number and adjusted case or infection fatality ratios, respectively) or synoptic description (household attack rate, time to epidemic peak, and excess all-cause mortality rates), are well within the range described by respiratory viral pandemics of the last few centuries (where the 1918–20 influenza is the clear outlier)”

If those who hysterically shouted down the wise men and women calling for calm and pointing out that it was just another flu were honest, they would be apologising.

They aren’t, of course.

35
0
Mark
Mark
3 years ago
Reply to  Mark

And yes, obviously policymakers should have looked at history rather than at manipulative, fantasy modelling results. It’s not as though we are short of precedents where panic overreactions based on modelling nonsense have led to costly disasters.

19
0
chris c
chris c
3 years ago
Reply to  Mark

Can you think of any that didn’t involve Ferguson?

1
0
Paul B
Paul B
3 years ago
Reply to  Mark

I agree, but I do believe one thing was different this time around. The French built the lab, the US paid for it, the Chinese released it and the UK helped to cover it up. That warrants some different actions – none to do with management more to do with the hangings.

20
0
Rowan
Rowan
3 years ago
Reply to  Paul B

Three of your four assertions are correct, but read this long article – https://www.unz.com/article/the-flying-pangolin/

Last edited 3 years ago by Rowan
0
0
RickH
RickH
3 years ago

Well – a statement of the bleedin’ obvious.

But – a well laid-out argument of the bleedin’ obvious is still worthwhile.

Bluntly – only the brain dead would place any faith in epidemiological modelling after the series of massive miscalculations that have occured.

Even in terms of the immediate history of this epidemic, a forecast based upon that reality is far more accurate than computer gaming.

When Vallance forecast the notorious ‘4000 deaths a day’ in the autumn, I deliberately wrote down (to avoid kidding myself) my own forecast based simply on trends and previous patterns. It was just intelligent use of historical real data – not at all sophisticated. It was essentially an intelligent guestimate.

The result was massively more accurate than any of the mathematical models.

Last edited 3 years ago by RickH
20
0
HelenaHancart
HelenaHancart
3 years ago

Dominic Cummings has since confirmed that the Government did abandon its original plan at the last minute. He claims, “No10 was made aware by various people that the official plan wd lead to catastrophe.”

“Various people”? And “catastrophe” for who exactly? Was this the point they crawled out of their own little bed, and into another much, much bigger bed?

20
0
JayBee
JayBee
3 years ago
Reply to  HelenaHancart

Those various people have clearly been proven wrong by Sweden, South Dakota, Florida&co.
But as nothing changes- to the contrary, they are doubling down on lockdowns et.al. as the only permitted response henceforth and are ready to sign away all their sovereignty here to the WHO in November- it is now very clear that they were and are following a totally different agenda with all this, and also that DC was and is neither in the loop nor as smart as he thinks he is.

4
0
Rowan
Rowan
3 years ago
Reply to  JayBee

it is now very clear that they were and are following a totally different agenda with all this, and also that DC was and is neither in the loop nor as smart as he thinks he is.

Cummings deserves a lamp post of his own, though of course lots of lamp posts will be needed.

6
0
Paul B
Paul B
3 years ago

Have they back-tested any of Prof Pantsdown’s predictions to see if any of his guff has had any merit at all, ever?

14
0
TheyLiveAndWeLockdown
TheyLiveAndWeLockdown
3 years ago
Reply to  Paul B

Just look at how ENORMOUSLY wrong IC was on vCJD prediction

14
0
RickH
RickH
3 years ago
Reply to  TheyLiveAndWeLockdown

… and the rest.

0
0
Rowan
Rowan
3 years ago
Reply to  Paul B

Ferguson from the Bill Gates’s Imperial College simply provides the numbers that his masters and government want. He is just a cog in the wheel, nothing more.

6
0
Mike Yeadon
Mike Yeadon
3 years ago
Reply to  Rowan

Exactly. A corrupt puppet.
A very rich corrupt puppet.
One can only hope he bumps into someone who can give him the attention he needs.
So long as they clean up afterwards.

3
0
BJs Brain is Missing
BJs Brain is Missing
3 years ago

“Should We Have Relied More on Historical Comparisons, and Less on Epidemiological Models?” How can this even be a rational question? Of course this should have been the case. Ferguson et al., have a lot to answer for. To then use poorly designed and disproven models as ‘evidence’ for future planning policy, borders on the insane and is at the least a sacking/resignation offence. To then continue with a policy that has wrecked lives, the economy, livelihoods, education, hospitality, psychological equilibrium, is most certainly criminally negligent and worthy of a custodial sentence.

Time to go Johnson, Hancock, Gove, Whitty, Vallance and Ferguson.

Last edited 3 years ago by BJs Brain is Missing
14
0
Jabba the Hut
Jabba the Hut
3 years ago
Reply to  BJs Brain is Missing

I wouldn’t count on any resignations, they’re all smug in their fantasy that they’ve saved hundreds of thousands of lives.

4
0
Mike Yeadon
Mike Yeadon
3 years ago
Reply to  BJs Brain is Missing

You’ve missed Farrar, Semple & a couple of other criminals.

1
0
peyrole
peyrole
3 years ago

Sorry for repeating, but the modelling has been done to support the required messages that created the psyop that was necessary to bring about the public response to the strategy already decided. The modellers might have over-sized egos, but they are foot soldiers, they have done what their masters paid them to do.
Of course the application of brains and a bit of historical perspective would have been better. Actually the output of a community of chimpanzees would have been better. but spending much time on this misses the point.
There is absolutely no way, given what we know about the early timeframes for such things as the Drosten RT-PCR test, that this was an accident of history, a cock-up, a mistake covered up ever since, or even just a combined effort of useless individuals. This was planned and executed, albeit with the usual errors en-route of any grand stategy. If it was any of the afore mentioned cock-ups it would have been wrapped up and swept under the carpet last summer.

23
0
Susan
Susan
3 years ago
Reply to  peyrole

Exactly. The headline and article are disingenuous.

4
0
RickH
RickH
3 years ago
Reply to  peyrole

I keep on recommending it, but the Council of Europe report on the swine ‘flu non-pandemic really is essential reading, in so far as you can see a template for what actually happened over Covid.

It’s blindingly obvious – but I bet that if you do a search of the archives for the past two years, you will find no mention in the media – a mark of the raddled nature of current journalism. Any proper investigative journalist would have been showing it like a rash.

5
0
Mike Yeadon
Mike Yeadon
3 years ago
Reply to  RickH

Indeed & this is how I ended up connected to Dr Wolfgang Wodarg, who pretty much shot the last Plandemic in the face.

Last edited 3 years ago by Mike Yeadon
2
0
Jo Starlin
Jo Starlin
3 years ago

The problem is that much of the population (and indeed, even especially our governing classes) lacks any historical knowledge of anything before yesterday. The little they do know is that our ancestors were bad, and stupid, and that we are much, much better than them in every way. Year zero advocates must always libel the past.

9
0
crisisgarden
crisisgarden
3 years ago

‘We’ were the victims of psychological, economic and biological warfare.

7
0
alw
alw
3 years ago

It’s easier for politicians to do something rather than nothing. Bunch of cowards.

2
0
Susan
Susan
3 years ago
Reply to  alw

Make that, criminals.

7
0
eyesee
eyesee
3 years ago

Your headline fundamentally equates to, ‘should we use knowledge and experience or go with guesswork?’

12
0
Liam
Liam
3 years ago
Reply to  eyesee

^^^THIS^^^

1
0
JayBee
JayBee
3 years ago

No sh*t, Sherlock.

0
0
A Heretic
A Heretic
3 years ago

GIGO

4
0
karenishly
karenishly
3 years ago

Well as we already know it’s been a case of garbage fed into the models and consequently we got got garbage out. Too many incorrect assumptions were made by the modellers who were too arrogant to correct the mistake preferring to keep repeating the mistake instead. Most notably the assumption that 100% of the population are susceptible and that our immune systems wouldn’t work.

3
0
Mike Yeadon
Mike Yeadon
3 years ago
Reply to  karenishly

And that it would kill a higher proportion of those infected than it actually did.

1
0
tom171uk
tom171uk
3 years ago

Should we have relied more on knowledge and experience and less on the guesses of narcissists?

The answer should be obvious.

0
0
FlynnQuill
FlynnQuill
3 years ago

You think? Modelling is no better than medieval alchemy or fairground fortune telling. We really are going backwards.

Last edited 3 years ago by FlynnQuill
2
0
Mike Yeadon
Mike Yeadon
3 years ago

It didn’t matter what they did as the entire episode was & remains fraud

3
0
186NO
186NO
3 years ago
Reply to  Mike Yeadon

To me, a unreconstructed non scientist, it appears that the “modellers” and “Sage” and other ( malign) influencers are at their core politically motivated, on the Brexit side of the divide, in thrall to “big” organisations such as the EU and the WHO and therefore their psychological allegiances and bents infect their allegedly professional functions – this is illustrated by the people on “independent” SAGE and it is impossible not to see their mindset/direction of travel. I include career politicians in this description; they all have skin in the game. None of them are brainless but I can imagine that once they decide on how to impart their so called knowledge and experience wrapped round their true aim, they do not do a lot of..” now am I right here, is there something I have missed, I will seek another opinion ” or listen to the little man ( old norse meaning ) on their shoulder. They also know they are currently untouchable – how often do they stare down the barrel to justify their output. Having started on a course of action they know full well is wrong, none of them have the personal integrity to admit they might be wrong – their agenda/narrative prevents that, and the politicians need to get re -elected. Kings/queens new clothes for sure or ” Breaker Morrant Syndrome”. For this reason, I cannot see that powers acquired will be handed back, July 19th regardless, without something happening that forces this to happen….

0
0

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