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SAGE Predicts Second Wave Will Be Worse Than First

Chris Whitty stares at his latest Graph of Doom

The Government has been caught using secret, non-peer-reviewed SAGE modelling again. When’s it going to learn? The Telegraph has the exclusive.

An internal analysis of the projected course of the second wave is understood to show deaths peaking at a lower level than in the spring but remaining at that level for weeks or even months.

It is understood that the projection – provided by the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies – has led to intense lobbying from Sir Patrick Vallance and other Government advisers for Boris Johnson to take more drastic action.

“It’s going to be worse this time, more deaths,” said one well-placed source. “That is the projection that has been put in front of the Prime Minister, and he is now being put under a lot of pressure to lock down again.”

The report continues (though fails to mention that the 367 deaths reported yesterday followed two days of 102 and 151 so that the average has not risen by much).

Details of the UK projection emerged as the Government announced that a further 367 people had died with Covid – the highest daily figure since May, bringing the UK total to 43,365.

Dr Yvonne Doyle, the medical director of Public Health England, said: “We continue to see the trend in deaths rising, and it is likely this will continue for some time. Each day we see more people testing positive and hospital admissions increasing.

“Being seriously ill enough from the infection to need hospital admission can sadly lead to more Covid-related deaths.”

Health officials expect the death toll to reach 500 a day within weeks.

Meanwhile, SAGE finally admits that lockdowns don’t work.

Professor Wendy Barclay, a SAGE member and scientist from Imperial College London, on Tuesday said none of the current restrictions appeared to be having a significant impact on the spread of the virus.

“The total lockdown that we had back in late March was enough to turn the tide and get the virus back under control,” she told Times Radio. “So far, none of the other restrictions that we’ve seen, and none of the other actions, seem to have done that.”

Ok, so she actually said nothing short of full lockdown works – wholly ignoring the fact, admitted by Chris Whitty in July, that infections in the spring were falling well before the lockdown began. And are daily positive tests currently rising? Here’s the graph by specimen date:

UK Covid positive tests by specimen date

They went up around October 19th but there’s no sign of further growth in over a week now, even allowing for reporting delays. What about hospital admissions in England? The latest data shows them flat since October 21st:

Covid hospital admissions in England

This level of admissions is not unusual for the autumn. As noted on Lockdown Sceptics last week, admissions with respiratory infections always rise through October and November and go crazy in December. October 2016 had 24,500 such admissions in England. Up to October 24th there have been 16,260 Covid admissions, with seven days to go, so very similar. And as the ONS pointed out yesterday, “The numbers of deaths in hospitals remained below the five-year average in Week 42.” (Week ending October 16th.) While it may be that winter 2020-21 turns out to be somewhat worse than previous winters, given that some parts of the country were likely prevented by the spring lockdown from reaching herd immunity before summer arrived, it would hardly be surprising. But none of this amounts to a devastating “second wave” that justifies ongoing ruinous, totalitarian restrictions.

As for deaths at “500 a day within weeks”, why is Spain still only seeing around 130?

Thank goodness Boris seems so far to be resisting the siren calls of the prophets of doom. But with these whispers in his ears, neither is he likely to be doing an about turn and embracing a liberal, focused protection approach any time soon.

How We Know Immunity Lasts – Whatever Imperial Says

One of the big stories yesterday was the latest data from Imperial’s REACT antibody survey showing that SARS-CoV-2 antibody levels in England have dropped by over a quarter in three months. The Telegraph has the details.

The mass research indicated that, by last month, fewer than one in 20 people had developed antibodies to Covid. Commissioned by the Department of Health, it is part of the largest piece of a research programme informing Government policies.

Its findings showed that by June, after the first wave of the pandemic, just 6% of the population had developed antibodies, which suggest some level of protection against the virus. Three months later, that figure had dropped to 4.4%, with most of the decline happening within just six weeks. 

The sharpest fall was seen in those most in need of protection, with antibody levels among the over-75s reducing by close to 40% between June and September.

Scientists said the findings showed Britain is “miles off” achieving herd immunity, which they warned might never be reached without a vaccine. 

However, the research did not examine the role played by other forms of immunity. Some scientists believe the part played by T-cells – a type of white blood cell that helps the immune system fight off viruses and is linked with prior infections by common colds – could be more crucial in fighting the virus.

Scientists analysed home fingerprick test samples from hundreds of thousands of adults to establish “detectable antibody levels” over a period of three months, and found levels fell by 26.5% overall. 

The largest fall was among those most vulnerable to serious illness from Covid. Among those aged 75 and over, antibody levels fell by 39%, while a drop of only 15% was seen in those aged between 18 and 24.

The lead researcher is Helen Ward, a professor of public health at Imperial. She says:

I think what we are showing is that there is a really big challenge to that, which is that immunity is waning quite rapidly. After three months, we’ve already shown a 26% decline in antibodies. When you think that 95 out of 100 people are unlikely to be immune, and therefore likely to be susceptible, then we are a long, long way, from anything resembling a population level protection against transmission.

It is staggering that it is October and Prof Ward can still assert, largely unchallenged by journalists and politicians, that 95% of the country are susceptible. How is it that the lead researcher of a key Government antibody survey is still in the dark about long-lasting and pre-existing T-cell immunity, as Dr Mike Yeadon explains here, Peter Doshi in the BMJ explains here, and the CEBM explain here? There has been close to zero reinfection so far, and almost all the tiny number of documented cases of reinfection are mild, which as these immunologists explain, is exactly what we would expect, antibodies or not. Besides, when it comes to coronaviruses, “immunity” doesn’t necessarily mean never-get-it-again, it means the immune system is primed so even if a virus does breach some defences it is much less likely to breach all of them and cause serious illness.

Yet Professor Wendy Barclay, head of the Department of Infectious Disease at Imperial, agrees with her colleague, saying Britain is “miles off” herd immunity:

Seasonal coronaviruses that circulate every winter and cause common colds can reinfect people after six to 12 months – and we suspect that the way that the body reacts to infection with this new coronavirus is rather similar to that. We don’t yet know what level of antibody is needed in a person’s blood to protect them from infection or reinfection from SARS-CoV-2, but of course that level is a crucial thing to begin to understand. Most of the vaccine strategies are aiming to produce that level, and that level will feed into whether or not a population becomes immune or has any level of immunity.

It is odd that Prof Barclay claims that most of the vaccines are aiming to produce enough antibodies to protect from infection, as the trial protocols state otherwise. As Peter Doshi explains in the BMJ: “None of the trials currently under way are designed to detect a reduction in any serious outcome such as hospital admissions, use of intensive care, or deaths. Nor are the vaccines being studied to determine whether they can interrupt transmission of the virus.” All they are doing is testing to see whether mild symptoms become milder. That’s primarily because serious symptoms are so rare trials can’t detect enough of them to obtain reliable results. Yet the scientists at the heart of advising the Government appear to be unaware of this fact. What hope then for the politicians?

But back with declining antibodies, and Harry de Quetteville has written an extraordinarily misleading piece in the Telegraph, a classic of the genre. To keep it brief:

  • “With the four other coronaviruses that just cause us colds, antibodies generated by natural infection can be short-lived and we can suffer again as soon as six months later… Of course, the fact we repeatedly suffer from those four other coronaviruses suggests that natural T-cell response is unlikely to confer long-lasting immunity.” No, first because there is a huge variety of viruses which cause colds, not just coronaviruses, which is the main reason we keep getting them. And second, reinfection with the same virus is often mild because of immunity.
  • “Vaccines prompt our bodies to work in ways they wouldn’t do normally – that’s the point.” It really isn’t. Vaccines stimulate natural immune responses by simulating infection. Anything a vaccine can do will typically be done more effectively (if more riskily) by natural infection.
  • “The very prospect of declining natural immunity is devastating to those who want to ‘let the virus rip’. What if we did, thousands died, and yet a few months later there was no benefit, in terms of immunity?” Leaving aside the “let rip” slur – who’s Harry supposed to be quoting here, given that not a single advocate of focused protection has used that phrase? – declining antibodies are not necessarily declining immunity, and places like Sweden, London and New York are the elephants in the room for the supposedly unanswerable “what ifs”.
  • “This study is a reminder of what has been true about coping pre-vaccine from the beginning: to control transmission without draconian lockdowns, tests must be combined with effective contact tracing.” Yet no European country has run a successful test and trace programme. This is because, as the GBD FAQ explains, contact tracing “does not work for widely spread diseases such as annual influenza, pre-vaccine measles, COVID-19, or, by definition, against any pandemic”. Is Harry just reproducing a press release from Matt Hancock’s officer verbatim?
  • “We cannot be sure about durability, but even if it does not confer eternal immunity, a vaccine could still provide long enough immunity essentially to eliminate transmission, with breakout infections being rare, and, hopefully, as is often the case, less severe.” Then, suddenly, an acknowledgement that less than perfect immunity provides a decent level of personal and community resistance. But, oddly, only if it’s conferred by a vaccine rather than natural infection. Huh?

Stop Press: Prof Sunetra Gupta was on talkRADIO yesterday defending focused protection, herd immunity and the GBD in the light of the new panic around fading immunity. Watch it here. If anyone has time to rustle up a transcript for us we’ll publish it in a future update.

How Covid Deaths Are Over-Counted

Today we’re publishing a new piece by pathologist and longstanding Lockdown Sceptics contributor Dr Clare Craig on how the data shows there is something seriously wrong with how we are counting both cases and deaths. From the introduction:

The system for counting deaths from Covid is not working properly and we are over-counting Covid deaths. This can be fixed, easily, by improving cross-checking and retesting all alleged positive PCR test results. Accurate data is a basic prerequisite for good policy choices. The remedial steps needed are simple and relatively inexpensive. Central government should mandate them to be done immediately.

When trying to understand the impact of increased testing on case numbers we look to the percentage of tests reported as positive. In a similar way, it is important to double check other data points against each other, as percentages, to truly understand how the epidemic is progressing. Using this approach, it appears that we are over-counting deaths because there are not enough severely sick people from Covid to account for them. In other words, there are proportionately more Covid deaths per case and per hospital admission since the Summer. This paper explains this phenomenon and calls for proper scientific cross-checking to be instituted before a Covid outbreak is declared.

This is a long but important article and rewards reading in full.

Normal Annual Mortality Predicts COVID-19 Death Toll

Source: COVID-19 deaths – Worldometer; Annual mortality – Eurostat

Here is a neat graph showing how a heavy Covid death toll is largely a problem for countries with low overall annual mortality. Those six countries with Covid deaths over 50 per 100,000 are (from left to right) France, Sweden, Italy, the United Kingdom, Spain and Belgium. Low mortality countries have more people in the older, more vulnerable age brackets. The big white space in the top right of the graph shows that no European country with high annual mortality has yet suffered a high Covid death toll.

The semi-outlier with a Covid tally of 33.7 per 100,000 is Romania, which is currently experiencing something of an autumn surge after coming off lightly in spring. It’s worth knowing though that January to May 2020 saw 4,905 fewer deaths in Romania than in the same period in 2019, despite the country suffering around 1,200 Covid deaths in that time. This might be why it is being hit harder by Covid now – the dry tinder wasn’t ignited earlier in the year.

While there are a number of countries that have both low annual mortality and low Covid mortality (the 10 or so in the bottom left), the data suggest normal annual mortality is a significant predictor of Covid deaths.

Deaths Above Average – But It’s Not Just Covid

Deaths in England and Wales were significantly above average for the first time since the late spring, with 669 deaths or 6.8% above the five-year average in the week ending October 16th, according to the latest ONS figures. With Covid deaths also on the rise in October it would be easy to put this all down to the so-called ‘second wave’. However, a closer analysis tells a different story. For one thing, despite rising hospital admissions, hospital deaths are still below average (by 184), while deaths in homes continue well above average (by 776), and deaths in care homes are now above average as well (by 90). While some of this will be transfer of people who would normally die in hospital dying at home and in care homes, not all of them would necessarily have died if they’d received hospital care (which of course is why we have hospitals). What’s more, a regional analysis shows overall deaths rising in the South West, the West Midlands and the East Midlands despite no corresponding rise in Covid deaths, and overall deaths declining in Yorkshire despite Covid deaths rising. This suggests it is other causes, many of them likely lockdown related given the absence of flu this year, that is driving the increase in excess deaths.

BBC Runs Advertorial For Chairman Dan

Police in Melbourne help a misguided citizen realise the error of his ways

We received an email from Freddie Attenborough, the author of the some of the strongest pieces we’ve published on Lockdown Sceptics, such as this one on the infantilisation of dissent, drawing our attention to a BBC article portraying the lockdown in the state of Victoria – one of the most draconian in the world – as a huge success. We’ve decided to run it as a guest post…

It appears that The Office for the Premier of Victoria bought some advertorial space with the BBC yesterday. Great to see them celebrating their success (and great too to see the BBC finally embracing a private-sector funding model)! Apparently, Victoria’s lockdown has been an absolute blast from start to finish. Everyone’s happy and the good people of Melbourne, in particular, have been left feeling like theirs is the best of all possible worlds (“Who needs a job, anyway?” “I never liked running a business!” “Money only burns a hole in your pocket!” “I like a man in uniform to treat me nice and rough every now and then!” “The tumour will probably go away if I give it time,” and so on). Did you know that? I didn’t know that. We must get out more. I completely get why Victoria feel the need to shout from the rooftops about this. True, people in that state haven’t been allowed to come out from under their beds yet. But lockdowns so obviously work that it seems a little churlish to ask them to wait before cracking open the bubbly. It’ll be over before Christmas! “I have here, from Herr Coronavirus, a piece of paper!” It’s peace for our time! Etc.

In describing the piece as an advertorial, I was perhaps being a little unfair. After all, the BBC do appear to have insisted on the values of objectivity and impartiality being upheld throughout. Towards the end of the piece, for instance, “serious mistakes” are identified within Victoria’s response to the coronavirus. Obviously, having the police beat up and strangle a young woman on the streets of Melbourne for not wearing a mask isn’t one of them. I know that fuddy-duddy conservatives like yourselves, with your rule of law, constitutionality and checks and balances and what not (yawn) continue to labour under the misapprehension that it was. But the BBC have got a Royal Charter. They provide “trusted world and UK news”, which must be true, because it says so on their trusted world and UK news website. Indeed unlike some journalists I could mention, what they don’t do is rabble-rouse for white supremacist organisations like the Spectator or – worse – the micro-aggressive Free Speech Union. Facts – that’s their currency. Strangling women to stop a virus from spreading? Fine. Eggs and omelettes. Nothing to see here. Just ordinary police work. No need to mention it. Move along. No, the “serious mistakes” identified by the BBC appear to centre on the way the authorities didn’t actually have enough power during lockdown. That’s right, not enough power. Sadly, it seems that those irritating “disease-vectors” we once whimsically – and perhaps, as it turns out, a little too carelessly – used to refer to as “citizens” proved frustratingly recalcitrant and didn’t do what they were told often enough.

It’s in these little glimpses of what the lockdown zealots view as “mistakes” that you can guess at one possible future for us all. One way or another, lockdown is going to be a success in Victoria. Heads they win, tails you lose. That’s why we can all start to celebrate before the lockdown’s over. The lockdown, as a system, is efficacious. We know that already. Yay! Woop! Three cheers for Professor Pantsdown! Etc. It follows therefore that if it hasn’t worked, it’s not the lockdown system itself but the disease-vectors within the system that are to blame. And the next step in the event of the lockdown system being failed by the vectors? Do it all over again, but this time with greater powers arrogated to the state. All disease vectors must be protected from themselves and each other. Lockdown everything. “Silence! Stand back! Look at the floor, you cur! Declare your pathogens! Confess to your exposures! Breathe intermittently and then only in a shallow manner! Excessive diaphragmatic movements will be monitored from above by drones! Thoracic cavities are to be strip searched every hour on the hour! Strangling is too good for maskless libertarian tarts who can only be out walking the streets of Melbourne in order to solicit; what they need and what they will get under THIS lockdown is a good, hard, socially distanced shoot-to-kill policy.” And so on.

The socio-legal trajectory here is pretty clear. The political scientist Robert Michels once wrote about an “iron law of oligarchy,” where all complex organizations, regardless of how democratic they were when started, eventually developed into oligarchies. He was of course referring specifically to political parties, but for me he also inadvertently identified a general tendency towards “intensification” in modernity; that is, a tendency for more and more power to be dragged towards fewer and fewer people, particularly when those people see themselves as having to operate in the presence of an internal enemy – and what could be more “internal” than a virus? At least those Commie Bastards during the Cold War had the decency to stay out of our free-market lungs.

Representative democracy was a pretty effective western, liberal attempt to halt, or at least pause, that process of intensification: we voted on the basis of their manifesto, they led on the basis of that manifesto, we then voted them out on the basis of how well or how badly their actions aligned to their manifesto. It wasn’t perfect, but at least you could say that the oligarchies got switched around every five or so years. But in Australia and also in the UK (with our own Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions) Regulations and the Coronavirus Act) we’re starting to regard the basic principles and tenets of representative democracy as annoyances, irritations, things that get in the way of a small group of people quickly and efficiently doing “the right thing” in order to protect everyone else. Indeed, if the coronavirus has taught us anything it’s just how disturbingly easy it is for a certain type of personality to switch from seeing people as citizens to seeing them as disease-vectors. This is truly the Age of the Passive-Aggressive Fusspot. (Watching Little Matty Hancock (Private, Second Class) counting off the regulations in the Government’s catechism of neurotic epidemiological obsessions as he struts around Bojo’s tin-pot war-gaming bunker in a skin-tight Flash Gordon cosplay outfit, you get the sense that his personality has finally, at long last, found its métier.) The result is that we’re in danger of ending up with our own “iron law of lockdown”, namely, that all lockdowns – limited, temporary arrogations of power by the state – regardless of how well intentioned they are when begun, have the tendency to develop into totalitarian nightmares – limitless, quasi-permanent arrogations of power by the state. Or, in more detail: lockdowns work except when they’re failed by the people; and when they’re failed by the people they haven’t been enforced adequately by the state; and if they haven’t been enforced adequately by the state then they need to be reintroduced, but only now where the state has arrogated to itself even greater power of enforcement.

And the logical endpoint for this, the “iron law of lockdown”? If you look up the relevant statistical datasets online, you’ll find that the infection fatality rate for corpses is 0.0000%.

Round-Up

Love in the Time of Covid

We have created some Lockdown Sceptics Forums, including a dating forum called “Love in a Covid Climate” that has attracted a bit of attention. We have a team of moderators in place to remove spam and deal with the trolls, but sometimes it takes a little while so please bear with us. You have to register to use the Forums, but that should just be a one-time thing. Any problems, email the Lockdown Sceptics webmaster Ian Rons here.

Sharing stories: Some of you have asked how to link to particular stories on Lockdown Sceptics. The answer used to be to first click on “Latest News”, then click on the links that came up beside the headline of each story. But we’ve changed that so the link now comes up beside the headline whether you’ve clicked on “Latest News” or you’re just on the Lockdown Sceptics home page. Please do share the stories with your friends and on social media.

Woke Gobbledegook

We’ve decided to create a permanent slot down here for woke gobbledegook. Today, it’s Rupert Murdoch’s turn to drink the Kool-Aid. Yup, that’s right, the Dirty Digger himself has been captured by the woke cult – or, rather, the HR department of News UK has and he hasn’t noticed. Guido Fawkes has the story.

Rupert Murdoch’s News UK is undergoing a major woke shakeup in the wake of Black Lives Matter protests, with the company’s human resources department aiming to exert influence on editorial content and decisions across all titles; as well as requiring all journalists and presenters to sign up to diversity and inclusion objectives and training. A leaked Zoom chat on the subject reveals that the media giant has appointed Shelley Bishton as their new “Head of Creative Diversity” to oversee the transformation…

As part of the sweeping changes across the News UK empire titles will be forced to:

* Appoint “diversity specialists” on each outlet
* Agree a process for internal and external content review to track sentiment and coverage
* Introduce a new politically-correct “style guide” so journalists can speak with authority on stories about diversity

The human resources team privately described the readerships and audiences of the Sun, the Times, the Sunday Times, Talk Radio and Times Radio as a “predominantly anti-diversity and inclusion” audience, with “newsrooms… more white and they tend to be more male”. Go woke, go broke…

If the HR team know that the consumers of News UK’s journalism don’t sign up to all this woke nonsense, why try and “train” the staff to churn it out? Because it’s the right thing to do, obviously…

“Mask Exempt” Lanyards

We’ve created a one-stop shop down here for people who want to buy (or make) a “Mask Exempt” lanyard/card. You can print out and laminate a fairly standard one for free here and it has the advantage of not explicitly claiming you have a disability. But if you have no qualms about that (or you are disabled), you can buy a lanyard from Amazon saying you do have a disability/medical exemption here (takes a while to arrive). The Government has instructions on how to download an official “Mask Exempt” notice to put on your phone here. You can get a “Hidden Disability” tag from ebay here and an “exempt” card with lanyard for just £1.99 from Etsy here. And, finally, if you feel obliged to wear a mask but want to signal your disapproval of having to do so, you can get a “sexy world” mask with the Swedish flag on it here.

Don’t forget to sign the petition on the UK Government’s petitions website calling for an end to mandatory face masks in shops here.

A reader has started a website that contains some useful guidance about how you can claim legal exemption.

And here’s an excellent piece about the ineffectiveness of masks by a Roger W. Koops, who has a doctorate in organic chemistry.

The Swiss Doctor has translated the article in a Danish newspaper about the suppressed Danish mask study. Largest RCT on the effectiveness of masks ever carried out. Rejected by three top scientific journals so far.

Stop Press: Now they’re trying to say we’re mad and bad. From the Independent.

Scientists in Brazil have linked resistance to COVID-19 safety measures, such as wearing a mask, with antisocial personality traits.

Their study was the first of its kind in Latin America and surveyed over 1,500 people aged 18-73.

Using a questionnaire, the scientists sought to identify the participants’ affective resonance – their impulse to act on feelings stirred by another person – and asked a series of personality questions about how well certain statements represented their behaviour on a scale.

The survey also asked about compliance with COVID-19 containment measures over time, such as mask wearing.

When profiles were analysed, two were identified: an antisocial pattern profile who were resistant to COVID-19 safety measures and an empathy pattern profile who were compliant.

Since the “antisocial” traits include “risk-taking” and “impulsivity”, perhaps this may all be just a teensy bit subjective and biased.

The Great Barrington Declaration

Professor Sunetra Gupta, Professor Martin Kulldorff and Professor Jay Bhattacharya

The Great Barrington Declaration, a petition started by Professor Martin Kulldorff, Professor Sunetra Gupta and Professor Jay Bhattacharya calling for a strategy of “Focused Protection” (protect the elderly and the vulnerable and let everyone else get on with life), was launched last week and the lockdown zealots have been doing their best to discredit it. If you Googled it last week, the top hits were three smear pieces from the Guardian, including: “Herd immunity letter signed by fake experts including ‘Dr Johnny Bananas’.” (Freddie Sayers at UnHerd warned us about this hit job the day before it appeared.) On the bright side, Google UK has stopped shadow banning it, so the actual Declaration now tops the search results – and this Spectator piece about the attempt to suppress it is among the top hits – although discussion of it has been censored by Reddit. The reason the zealots hate it, of course, is that it gives the lie to their claim that “the science” only supports their strategy. These three scientists are every bit as eminent – more eminent – than the pro-lockdown fanatics so expect no let up in the attacks. (Wikipedia has also done a smear job.)

You can find it here. Please sign it. Now well over 600,000 signatures.

Stop Press: The authors of the GDB have expanded the FAQs to deal with some of the arguments and smears that have been made against their proposal. Worth reading in full.

Judicial Reviews Against the Government

There are now so many JRs being brought against the Government and its ministers, we thought we’d include them all in one place down here.

First, there’s the Simon Dolan case. You can see all the latest updates and contribute to that cause here.

Then there’s the Robin Tilbrook case. You can read about that and contribute here.

Then there’s John’s Campaign which is focused specifically on care homes. Find out more about that here.

There’s the GoodLawProject’s Judicial Review of the Government’s award of lucrative PPE contracts to various private companies. You can find out more about that here and contribute to the crowdfunder here.

The Night Time Industries Association has instructed lawyers to JR any further restrictions on restaurants, pubs and bars.

And last but not least there’s the Free Speech Union‘s challenge to Ofcom over its ‘coronavirus guidance’. You can read about that and make a donation here.

Samaritans

If you are struggling to cope, please call Samaritans for free on 116 123 (UK and ROI), email [email protected] or visit the Samaritans website to find details of your nearest branch. Samaritans is available round the clock, every single day of the year, providing a safe place for anyone struggling to cope, whoever they are, however they feel, whatever life has done to them.

Shameless Begging Bit

Thanks as always to those of you who made a donation in the past 24 hours to pay for the upkeep of this site. Doing these daily updates is hard work (although we have help from lots of people, mainly in the form of readers sending us stories and links). If you feel like donating, please click here. And if you want to flag up any stories or links we should include in future updates, email us here. (Don’t assume we’ll pick them up in the comments.)

And Finally…

Watch Lord Sumption’s evisceration of the Government’s handling of the coronavirus crisis here.

Comments

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1.4K Comments
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Pete Sutton
Pete Sutton
5 years ago

“SAGE Predicts Second Wave Will Be Worse Than First”What Mandy Rice Davies said.

Fingerache Philip.
Fingerache Philip.
5 years ago
Reply to  Pete Sutton

I remember it well and it is as true now as it was then.

OKUK
OKUK
5 years ago
Reply to  Pete Sutton

SAGE: a political and commercial lobby group that eschews both common sense and genuine science.

iansn
iansn
5 years ago
Reply to  OKUK

love it

PWL
PWL
5 years ago
Reply to  Pete Sutton

The blaming any and all other death on Covid-19 won’t peak as high as it did in the spring, but it will go on and on, says SAGE. Because the narrative won’t be broken, because the opposition is controlled.

ICNARC, which is ignored by yer anti-lockdown champions in yer fringe corporate-media and alternative media, says that between 1st September and 22nd October, 328 Covid-19 patients died in intensive care, or after having been in critical care. The significance: if you didn’t die in or after intensive care, you didn’t die of Covid-19, because acute Covid-19 – the bit that kills you – is a pneumonia. And it’s quite astonishing that we’re still playing this silly game seven months into this shambles pretending that what Government says about deaths is legitimate.

“Covid-19”, which is various death blamed on a virus (that doesn’t exist) is a hoax, and until your controlled opposition media starts calling it one – which it won’t – there is never going to be an end to the horse crap, which empowers the agenda, which people are going to have to put themselves in harms way to defeat (not that the controlled opposition media will be leading… Read more »

Arkansas
Arkansas
5 years ago
Reply to  PWL

won’t peak as high as it did in the spring, but it will go on and on, says SAGE.

Going “on and on” is a natural consequence of widespread PCR testing and having “cases” as the centrepiece of the narrative, I guess.

As we know, the definition of a “case” (a positive result of a PCR test which has a theoretical false positive rate between 0.8-4.0%, potentially higher operationally) and the definition of a “covid death” (a person who dies of any cause but who tested positive at some point in the previous 28 days) ensures this.

The very fact of having a baseline number of (say) around 2% of all tests done guaranteed to be positive guarantees that there will always be “covid deaths” going “on and on” at a sub-peak level. And that is even before we take account of “cold” and “lukewarm” cases where they do have the virus (in the specific sense that the test has indeed detected the “something” it is intended to react to) but where it is meaningless with respect to the patient’s overall health situation.

Calling it a “hoax” tends to imply a complete fiction from the ground up to people; it’s… Read more »

chaos
chaos
5 years ago

I can’t stand Rod Liddle. 10 good points and 90 bad ones. Overated. Unfunny most of the time. Writes for The Sun mostly because well.. The Sun man is essentially what he is… twiddle twaddle wiffle waffle government has made a mistake about covid waffle poffle..

OKUK
OKUK
5 years ago

Not just you. I said the same.

captainbeefheart
captainbeefheart
5 years ago

^ that one has been “pinned” somehow

AnotherSceptic
AnotherSceptic
5 years ago

There is an absolute abundance of Coronavirus puns on social media, it is an absolute pundemic.

Hieronimusb
Hieronimusb
5 years ago

Mike Yeadon describes it as a confluence of opportunism or some such, sounds about right.

CGL
CGL
5 years ago
Reply to  Hieronimusb

Yes – Yeadon called it ‘convergent opportunism’ and Delingpole called it ‘a concatenation of shared interests’
(I made notes!)

OKUK
OKUK
5 years ago

Yes, indeed. We were already committing cultural suicide, self harming probably the greatest culture that has ever existed on the planet. But now it’s like we’ve taken a knife to our throat. My own view us that the corrosive influence of PC ideology has so weakened us that we no longer kniw no longer know how to defend ourselves when faced by something like a pandemic virus.

OKUK
OKUK
5 years ago

I know what you mean. But, if so, what type of conspiracy would it be…how many people involved in how many different command organisations? Are you a strong or weak conspiracist? Strong conspiracists state the virus was manufactured to achieve a particular political outcome – generally referred to as human enslavement, but without much further exegesis.

Personally I prefer to think this was a kind of “black swan” event that a variety of loosely aligned opportunists – from the Chinese Communist Party to XR – try to use to their own benefit.

BobT
BobT
5 years ago

THIS LETTER DIRECTLY CAUSED THE DEATHS OF ABOUT 50,000 PEOPLE IN THE UK

https://www.england.nhs.uk/coronavirus/wp-content/uploads/sites/52/2020/03/urgent-next-steps-on-nhs-response-to-covid-19-letter-simon-stevens.pdf

In the opening para it states ‘The operational aim is to expand critical care capacity to the maximum; free up 30,000 (or more) of the English NHS’s 100,000 general and acute beds’

According to their own figures, the NHS excelled themselves and kicked out 60,000 patients within a few days reducing their occupancy to 50%. It took until August to increase occupancy to the normal levels of 110,000. This resulted in a reduction of hospital healthcare in the period amounting to nearly 2 million bed-days.

There were 28,186 more deaths in care homes during this period than the normal in previous years. (Amnesty International)

There were 10,000 more deaths in private homes than normal (ONS).

There are / will be an estimated 60,000 years of life lost due to lack of screening / diagnosis for Cancer. (The Lancet)

There were twice the normal number of heart attack deaths at home than usual (The Lancet)

(Note that I have purposefully not mentioned any statistics which are tainted by Covid PCR test numbers).

These numbers account for most, if not all, of the excess deaths above what would be… Read more »

captainbeefheart
captainbeefheart
5 years ago
Reply to  BobT

Nice post. It’s always shocking to hear it spelt out. Most people know things like this are happening, but when it is written in black and white, the sheer lunacy of it all is enough to give one a heart attack (another covid death)

Adbase
Adbase
5 years ago

Loved Dr. Horatio Beaker from Supercar. He made far more sense than Whitty

calchas
calchas
5 years ago

Cristiano Ronaldo says that PCR is ‘bullshit’, after testing positive for the third time.

“In an Instagram post, the 35-year-old said he was “feeling good and healthy” but that the “PCR IS BULL****”.
It seems he’s far from happy with the efficiency of the swab tests used to test for Covid-19.”

https://www.givemesport.com/1611919-cristiano-ronaldo-says-pcr-is-bull-after-test-rules-him-out-of-juventus-vs-barcelona

OKUK
OKUK
5 years ago
Reply to  calchas

Great news…we are getting more and more of these instances where celebs are totally pissed off with the effect on their personal lives, so they can’t keep up the virtue signalling. Expect more examples! They have a strong effect on public opinion.

ziggee
ziggee
5 years ago

Johnson had a chance to come close to emulating his hero Churchill, back in March; but surrendered to the baying mob.
Looks like he may soon get another Dunkirk moment.
Will he stand firm this time I wonder.

Not very confident here.

RickH
RickH
5 years ago
Reply to  ziggee

The only character that Johnson has ever emulated is a spoiled brat.

Tony Rattray
Tony Rattray
5 years ago

BORIS NOW HAS A SECOND CHANCE!!!

Yet another awful interview on the bbc this evening (newsnight). Both interviewees supporting a second full lockdown in the uk with no alternative view and the dream of lets just wait for a vaccine.

There was a really creepy sage member (health psychologist / behavioural team) who stated that the uk had failed to “protect the nhs” during the first lockdown. What planet is he on? This is just an outright lie as per the overall hospital bed occupancy during this period, big drop in a&e and gp attendance, empty nightingale hospitals, etc. But of course the ministry of truth (sage) has spoken.

The sage members who appear on the mass media are clearly of a certain stereotype – mean and bitter older men in 50 / 60s and mostly career academics / bureaucrats.

As more and more tory mps are now stating, boris needs to start distancing himself more from sage. He has a second chance – no second full lockdown! I may even forgive him, but no.

OKUK
OKUK
5 years ago
Reply to  Tony Rattray

As stated earlier, SAGE is a political and commercial lobbying group with no connection to good science or good sense.

ziggee
ziggee
5 years ago
Reply to  Tony Rattray

Appreciate you putting yourself in the front line there, and reporting back.

Jonathan Palmer
Jonathan Palmer
5 years ago
Reply to  Tony Rattray

The NHS is there to provide medical treatment.It is not to be protected by the public.The false idol status of the NHS allowed the government to get away with the lockdown.It cannot be allowed to get away with it again.

Nobody2021
Nobody2021
5 years ago

Speaking solely from a Scottish perspective, I can see no reason why we (Scotland) wouldn’t be like Sweden now had we done what they did.

AnotherSceptic
AnotherSceptic
5 years ago
Angryphon of Tunbridge Wells
Angryphon of Tunbridge Wells
5 years ago

oò

Old Normal
Old Normal
5 years ago

So many people are now too scared to live and scared of dying at the same time.

And the worst part is, they don’t even realise how ridiculous that is.

Eddie
Eddie
5 years ago
Reply to  Old Normal

Staying alive is much more important than living…c’mon ON! Once the magic vaccine arrives we’ll all be able to go back to living 🙂

The Mask Exempt Covid Marshall
The Mask Exempt Covid Marshall
5 years ago

France and Germany are now announcing new lockdowns. One thing is now for sure. They are not going to give up this obsessive bullshit without one hell of a fight. They are clearly either utter morons, insane, or on a massive power trip.

“The British public has not even begun to understand the seriousness of what is happening to our country. Many, perhaps most of them don’t care, and won’t care until it is too late. They instinctively feel that the end justifies the means, the motto of every totalitarian government which has ever been … The government has discovered the power of public fear to let it get its way.” – Jonathan Sumption

Nobody2021
Nobody2021
5 years ago

Every government now knows they can pretty much do whatever they like and most people will just take it.

They’re shooting people in the head in some countries for not complying with the rules and nobody thinks anything of it.

RyanM
RyanM
5 years ago
Reply to  Nobody2021

In what countries are they doing this?

Yawnyaman
Yawnyaman
5 years ago

Why would any business invest in these countries? Total waste of time and money.

calchas
calchas
5 years ago

“The Fake News is talking about CASES, CASES, CASES. This includes many low risk people. Media is doing everything possible to create fear prior to November 3rd. ”

Donal Trump on Twitter 24th October

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1320016181734993920

RyanM
RyanM
5 years ago
Reply to  calchas

He’s not wrong. It may backfire, esp if we all see Europe locking down.

captainbeefheart
captainbeefheart
5 years ago
Reply to  calchas

On the bright side, the more “cases” there are, the more the mortality rate goes down.

I have no numbers to hand to prove this at the moment, but a few of the scary graphs I’ve seen suggest that we’re not exponentially dying, as ordered by some dodgy version of Sim Virus written at ICL.

BobT
BobT
5 years ago

Yes, the overall mortality rate goes down but the died of or with Covid mortality rate goes up with the number of tests. i.e. more people are holding a +ve test certificate before or when they enter hospital and it is recorded on their admission or if they do not make it through their heart attack, their death certificate.

calchas
calchas
5 years ago

On 19th OctoberTrump adviser DrScott Atlas tweeted this:

“The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.” “And if all others accepted the lie which the Party imposed—if all records told the same tale—then the lie passed into history and became truth.” George Orwell, 1984

https://twitter.com/SWAtlasHoover/status/1318136468544589825

What does the evidence of our eyes and ears tell us with regard to this ‘pandemic’?

Nobody2021
Nobody2021
5 years ago

Professor Elliott on JHB show reminds me of a bad salesman who has realised you’re not buying, doesn’t like your questioning and is now just going through the motions.

OKUK
OKUK
5 years ago
Reply to  Nobody2021

Yes his sales pitch seemed to have been reduced to “just because the medicine is making you ill doesn’t mean you wouldn’t still be ill if you stopped taking the medicine. “

crimsonpirate
crimsonpirate
5 years ago

question is will Macron declare a second lockdown in the UK?

Nobody2021
Nobody2021
5 years ago

If they went with Targeted Protection they would get the blame if the virus spread to the vulnerable.

If they target everyone they can blame the people if the vulnerable get infected.

BeBopRockSteady
BeBopRockSteady
5 years ago
Reply to  Nobody2021

Not bad. I think a lot of decision making for politicians is about looking decisive, doing something, when all you’ve done is kicked the can. It’s because it’s not they who will suffer. No skin in the game.

Smileits1984
Smileits1984
5 years ago

Covid religion depicted previously in film….
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mCiEi8hgbOI

Eddie
Eddie
5 years ago

Hmmm, just had a brilliant idea.

Depends, makers of adult diapers, should definitely introduce their own brand of covid-busting face nappies at once. Just imagine…

“In these unprecedented times, we must come together and DEPEND on each other to stay healthy and alive. It DEPENDS on you to keep me safe and I too DEPEND on you. And now we at DEPENDS offer you the latest in covid-safe face nappy design – the Rona19 Facial Garment
Now available at all essential goods aisles nationwide!!”

Paul
Paul
5 years ago

I’ve just received an email from Specsavers here are the highlights,

Foggy lenses – Face masks and coverings have become a way of life in recent months – and for those of us who wear glasses, so have fogged-up lenses. To stop this from happening, ensure that your mask fits snugly, especially around your nose – a little bit of surgical tape can help to keep it in position. You could also try wearing your mask a little higher up your nose, and resting your glasses on top of it, if that’s comfortable.

Glasses glare – Whether for work or play, video calls have become a part of the new normal for many of us. While they’re a great way to stay in touch with family, friends and colleagues when we can’t see them in person, it can be harder for them to see your eyes if there’s glare from your glasses. To limit it, make sure any light sources are above head height and to the side of the camera.

Keeping your specs sparkling

One of the main pieces of advice for slowing the spread of COVID-19 is to avoid touching your face. This can be tricky if you… Read more »

Cheezilla
Cheezilla
5 years ago

,

122661036_10223548287672675_106980165707521937_o.jpg
Nobody2021
Nobody2021
5 years ago

I was curious as to why no government that I’m aware of was critical about the potential human rights abuses in Victoria, Australia, bearing in mind the hullaballoo over Hong Kong. There are definitely human rights abuses in some countries.

Now it’s evident that they couldn’t criticise something they were planning on doing themselves.

OKUK
OKUK
5 years ago

Anyone else finding the “newest posts” button unresponsive tonight?

CGL
CGL
5 years ago
Reply to  OKUK

Think the thread at the top is pinned there. I thought it was just me.

OKUK
OKUK
5 years ago
Reply to  CGL

Yes just realised the oldest post with replies stays at the top even though you are in “newest”.

matt
matt
5 years ago
Reply to  OKUK

Almost always is for me, once posts approach 1,000 or I’ve not looked for a fairly long time.

rose
rose
5 years ago
Reply to  OKUK

Yes me

Rene F
Rene F
5 years ago

Blackpilled. That’s all I’m going to say tonight.

Ovis
Ovis
5 years ago
Reply to  Rene F

Charcoal tablets?

Do they keep the covids away?

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