You may recall that we undertook to review the 100 models forming the backbone of the UKHSA’s latest offering: the mapping review of available evidence. Remember, UKHSA did not extract nor appraise the evidence as it does not have the resources. This drew expressions of mirth among our readers. We agree it’s a bad joke – a very bad one – considering this ‘evidence’ is what the UKHSA states justified restrictions that led to stories such as Pippa Merrick’s, which unfortunately are not the exception. Earlier versions of the justification were a bad joke, too. What follows is no better.
Diligently, as promised, we downloaded the 100 papers defined as “models” by UKHSA (please do not ask Hugo Keith KC what is meant by that term).
Of each, we are asking the following questions:
- What is the non-pharmaceutical intervention (NPI) being assessed (e.g. is it an NPI, and is it defined and described?) and in what setting? (e.g. community, hospital, homes etc.)
- What is the source for the effect estimate? (to model its effects, you need a source of data, i.e., what does it do?)
- What is the size of the effect? (such as risk reduction of SARS-CoV-2 infection)
- What is the case definition? (how did they define a case of COVID-19?)
Straightforward, we thought.
Anything but, we are finding out.
First of all, the papers are full of jargon, as they are mainly written by mathematicians, or at least that is what they say they are. Secondly, most of them come to the same conclusion: lockdown harder, do as I say, or you or your auntie (or both of you) will die.
The most disconcerting answers we are getting are those to the second question: what is the source for the effect estimate?
In a classical model, you start with describing the problem, in this case, the number of cases and complications in a population, transmission patterns and perhaps age breakdown. If your second part is about how to stop or slow down the spread, hospitalisations, deaths and so on, to model the ‘how to’ in a credible way you need facts about what you are modelling is supposed to achieve (say distancing). Which, if introduced in this or that setting, is likely to diminish the risk of infection by Z%. The numerical estimate for Z should be surrounded by a range of probabilities (confidence intervals), giving the boundaries of probabilities that the observed effect (Z) in reduction of SARS-CoV-2 infection lie within X and Y around your point estimate of Z. So you then take Z and stick it in your model to see what effect Z would have and then you can use X and Y to play ‘what if’.
The crucial word is ‘credible’ because these models (are they projections, scenarios, predictions, or scenarios upon which predictions can be projected – ask Hugo Keith KC for a simple answer) have been used to change people’s lives. Or maybe some of them were retrofits to justify something already done by the Robert Maxwell school of ethics.
Credible would mean an estimate from one or preferably more well-designed studies with a protocol and clear case definitions. As the focus is the U.K., the data should come from the U.K. or at least a similar setting.
Well, here is an example of the sources of ‘parameters’ used in one quite well-publicised model:
Of the 11 assumptions underlying the model, eight are unsourced; one comes from a systematic review without infectious case definition, one from an economic model, and one from a case-control study.
Extraordinary, you will say: this seems to be the universal method known as BOPSAT (a Bunch Of People Sitting Around a Table). Yes, it is, except that the model, in fact, was about mass community testing for SARS-CoV-2 by lateral flow devices (LFDs) with not a shred of non-pharmaceutical interventions in sight. LFDs are tests, not interventions that can slow or stop the spread of anything.
And these are some of the minor problems we face, so it takes time. Perhaps we should ask Mr. Keith for help?
Dr. Carl Heneghan is the Oxford Professor of Evidence Based Medicine and Dr. Tom Jefferson is an epidemiologist based in Rome who works with Professor Heneghan on the Cochrane Collaboration. This article was first published on their Substack, Trust The Evidence, which you can subscribe to here.
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The Telegraph headlines :-
“Matt Hancock warns vaccine fake news is a ‘deadly threat’”
In any past normal society Hancock would be ended up behind bars or at least sacked for his gross incompetence, but no, Johnson, ploughs on with these totally corrupt agenda driven globalists.
Hancock is still young, plenty of time for him to face “justice”.
I ‘m not sufficiently familiar with the detail of the legislation. But are those responsible for deliberately engendering fear guilty of terrorist offences?
After all – this is the purpose of terrorist acts : to create disproportionate fear in the population, and even in terms of death toll, the victims of associated fear measures must now far exceed the twin towers fatalities.
From CPS website, Rick:
Terrorism is the use or threat of action, both in and outside of the UK, designed to influence any international government organisation or to intimidate the public. It must also be for the purpose of advancing a political, religious, racial or ideological cause.
Examples include:
https://www.cps.gov.uk/crime-info/terrorism
Thanks, Sam. Confirms my instinct.
Of course, the withholding of Ivermectin might be considered as : “endangering a person’s life”, as could coercing a ‘vaccine’ whilst withholding information about side effects….?
This quotation should go hand-in-hand with an email to local MPs while asking them if they received their copy of Laura Dobsworth’s State of Fear.
He knows he’s going to prison if the truth ever gets out
You think so? Blair is still running about earning good money with his nose in government policy after Iraq. The same will happen to this snivelling little shit no doubt.
Personally, I hope he’s tried for treason but he’s not the only one complicit in all this so will have his back covered.
He’ll get a knighthood!
Jimmy Saville had one, Nick Clegg and Keir Starmer have one so it seems they hand them out like sweets.
I’d like one too – so I can rock up to the queen and tell her where to shove her sword – preferably up the arse of Mancock.
I live for that day.
I don’t think there’s any point in fantasizing. It’s unlikely to happen.
What I would like to see is a growing awareness that destroys the establishment game-plan with growing antagonism to it. After that … we’ll see.
Sod zero covid, I want to see zero Hancock
I think it’s time to sue, sue and sue again!
Right. So have you started the ball rolling by employing a legal team?
Still using that meaningless, brain-dead term ‘Covid deaths’ without explanation. Why?
… and why yet another repetition of that stupid bar chart? The fake news business doesn’t need distribution help.
I wouldnt be surprised if a large percentage of the remaining 60% werent covid deaths either. Doctors dont always put the true reason for death down on death certificates. Dr Harold Shipman is unlikely to be the first and last Doctor to wield their power of trust in an evil way.
My impression is that, for any elderly person with a slew of conditions (as is very common in the very old, who are unkindly called ‘crocks’ in the trade), the death cert. mentions all the conditions and you take your pick. Of course, if you’re an NHS liar, you pick covvie and leave the rest.
My mother died in April, in a care home, fell and broke her hip, had it fixed, came home and the next day had a stroke and died 3 days later. What was on her death cert? “Old age”. Nothing else. The registrar was appalled and had to bounce it back to the coroner. So yes, death certs are as accurate as a Ferguson model.
Spot on. I’ve used the somewhat pejorative term “Shipman Certificates” elsewhere for the same reason. There appears to have been a substantial ‘transition’ on paper over the winter, for example. After all, the creation of a special ‘tick box’ (as it were) on the form was an open goal for some. As a result, the ONS weekly reports are probably best read with a degree of scepticism – not just in this place!
Of course, historically, Shipman committed suicide in the slammer, perhaps ‘cos someone turned a blind eye.
I’m well past believing our official figures.
Why wasn’t there an investigation into the gold standard of testing when it reveals positive in engine oil and pawpaw fruit.
I should think the real number is closer to 100%.
How about 99.9999999999999999999999999999999%. Even that might be understating the extent of the Covid death certificate fraud. See today’s OffG articlehttps://off-guardian.org/2021/06/02/counting-covids-deceptive-deaths/
I think “recent” can be taken out of the above and 40% is probably a large underestimate.
40% seems far too low.
Actual causes of death are probably things like motorcycle accidents, plane crashes, and gunshot wounds.
A friend just rang to say he believes I may have an asymptomatic beer deficiency
Well if my visit to the freedom pub saves just one life
The thing is, none of us believes a word their stats suggest any more.
The Fauci emails look cheering though.
Any straight to Wormtongue?
Blimey, that’s what I would truly call a “No shit Sherlock” piece of reporting from the Telegraph.
Will they count me as a covid death. I’m dead mad about all the bollocks and sick to death of Matt Hancock.
Little cheery news to read that Sir Kevan Collins has told auld Lard Arse to sick his schools rescue up his arse.
And yet this b.s. continues…