• Login
  • Register
The Daily Sceptic
No Result
View All Result
  • Articles
  • About
  • Archive
    • ARCHIVE
    • NEWS ROUND-UPS
  • Podcasts
  • Newsletter
  • Premium
  • Donate
  • Log In
The Daily Sceptic
No Result
View All Result

What’s the West’s Endgame in Ukraine?

by Noah Carl
19 January 2023 9:00 AM

The war in Ukraine appears to be entering a stalemate, with both sides taking heavy casualties, and neither making substantial gains against the other. That’s the view of commentators like Barry Posen, Ivo Daalder, James Goldgeier, Condaleeza Rice, Robert Gates, Philippe Lemoine and Antoly Karlin. It’s also reflected in prediction markets.

According to Metaculus, there’s only a 20% chance that Ukraine will control the Donbas by 2024, and only a 10% chance it will control Sevastopol (the largest city in Crimea). Likewise, Manifold Markets gives only a 28% chance that Ukraine will control Crimea by the end of this year.

While Metaculus gives a 45% chance that Ukraine will sever the Crimea-Russia land bridge by 2024, it gives a 60% chance that Russia will still control parts of Ukraine other than the LNR, DNR and Crimea. As for the possibility that we’ll see a coup or regime change in Russia, the community says there’s only a 12% chance.

Of course, these are just the implied probabilities from lots of educated guesses, so they shouldn’t be taken too seriously. But they’re better than any one individual’s gut feeling.

It’s certainly possible that the war will develop to Ukraine’s advantage – especially if Western countries deliver all the weapons that General Zaluzhny asked for in his recent interview with The Economist.

But he asked for a lot: “300 tanks, 600-700 IFVs, 500 howitzers” – an incremental arsenal “bigger than the total armoured forces of most European armies”. And at the present time, Western countries seem reluctant to substantially increase their military assistance to Ukraine.

Never mind 500 howitzers, Germany is still dithering over whether to allow other countries to transfer German-made Leopard tanks. And while the U.S. has sent an unprecedented quantity of weapons, it hasn’t budged on Abrams tanks or long-range missiles. (According to a Washington Post report in December, the U.S. actually altered HIMARS launchers to prevent them firing missiles that could reach Russia.)

The ostensible reasons for Western countries’ reluctance include: concerns about their own dwindling stockpiles, not wanting to get “dragged further into the war”, and wishing to avoid catastrophic escalation. (One might speculate that some U.S. officials actually want to prolong the war, the better to weaken Russia – and Europe.)

Given these apparent constraints, why are Western leaders not pushing both sides to the negotiating table?

Do they think Ukraine can win decisively with the current level of assistance? If so, they have to explain why many analysts are sceptical. And if not, what do they hope to achieve by eschewing the n-word (negotiations) – other than more death and destruction?

Tags: The EconomistUkraineUnited States

Donate

We depend on your donations to keep this site going. Please give what you can.

Donate Today

Comment on this Article

You’ll need to set up an account to comment if you don’t already have one. We ask for a minimum donation of £5 if you'd like to make a comment or post in our Forums.

Sign Up
Previous Post

NHS Reform Means a Fundamental Rebalancing of Power Away From Doctors and Managers and Towards the Paying Public

Next Post

Jacinda Ardern’s Resignation is an Admission of Failure

Subscribe
Login
Notify of
Please log in to comment

To join in with the discussion please make a donation to The Daily Sceptic.

Profanity and abuse will be removed and may lead to a permanent ban.

33 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments

NEWSLETTER

View today’s newsletter

To receive our latest news in the form of a daily email, enter your details here:

DONATE

PODCAST

The Sceptic EP.38: Chris Bayliss on the Commonwealth Voting Scandal, Sarah Phillimore on the Bar’s Scrapped EDI Plans and Eugyppius on ‘White Genocide’

by Richard Eldred
30 May 2025
0

LISTED ARTICLES

  • Most Read
  • Most Commented
  • Editor’s Picks

There Will Be No Climate Catastrophe: MIT Professor Dr Richard Lindzen

29 May 2025
by Hannes Sarv

German Pensioner Receives 75-Day Prison Sentence in Latest Speech Crime Scandal to Hit the Federal Republic

29 May 2025
by Eugyppius

News Round-Up

30 May 2025
by Toby Young

Miliband Accused of Pitting “Neighbours Against Neighbours” After Scrapping Heat Pump Rule

29 May 2025
by Richard Eldred

BBC ‘Damages Countryside’ to Film Chris Packham’s Springwatch

30 May 2025
by Richard Eldred

There Will Be No Climate Catastrophe: MIT Professor Dr Richard Lindzen

25

German Pensioner Receives 75-Day Prison Sentence in Latest Speech Crime Scandal to Hit the Federal Republic

21

News Round-Up

18

Miliband Accused of Pitting “Neighbours Against Neighbours” After Scrapping Heat Pump Rule

16

China Backs Starmer’s Chagos Deal

15

Trump is Handing Africa to the Chinese for the Sake of Social Media Clout

29 May 2025
by Noah Carl

Hooked on Freedom: Why Medical Autonomy Matters

29 May 2025
by Dr David Bell

So Renters WILL Pay the Costs of Net Zero

29 May 2025
by Ben Pile

The Net Zero Agenda’s Continued Collapse Into Chaos

28 May 2025
by Ben Pile

Alasdair MacIntyre 1929-2025

27 May 2025
by James Alexander

POSTS BY DATE

January 2023
M T W T F S S
 1
2345678
9101112131415
16171819202122
23242526272829
3031  
« Dec   Feb »

SOCIAL LINKS

Free Speech Union

NEWSLETTER

View today’s newsletter

To receive our latest news in the form of a daily email, enter your details here:

POSTS BY DATE

January 2023
M T W T F S S
 1
2345678
9101112131415
16171819202122
23242526272829
3031  
« Dec   Feb »

DONATE

LISTED ARTICLES

  • Most Read
  • Most Commented
  • Editor’s Picks

There Will Be No Climate Catastrophe: MIT Professor Dr Richard Lindzen

29 May 2025
by Hannes Sarv

German Pensioner Receives 75-Day Prison Sentence in Latest Speech Crime Scandal to Hit the Federal Republic

29 May 2025
by Eugyppius

News Round-Up

30 May 2025
by Toby Young

Miliband Accused of Pitting “Neighbours Against Neighbours” After Scrapping Heat Pump Rule

29 May 2025
by Richard Eldred

BBC ‘Damages Countryside’ to Film Chris Packham’s Springwatch

30 May 2025
by Richard Eldred

There Will Be No Climate Catastrophe: MIT Professor Dr Richard Lindzen

25

German Pensioner Receives 75-Day Prison Sentence in Latest Speech Crime Scandal to Hit the Federal Republic

21

News Round-Up

18

Miliband Accused of Pitting “Neighbours Against Neighbours” After Scrapping Heat Pump Rule

16

China Backs Starmer’s Chagos Deal

15

Trump is Handing Africa to the Chinese for the Sake of Social Media Clout

29 May 2025
by Noah Carl

Hooked on Freedom: Why Medical Autonomy Matters

29 May 2025
by Dr David Bell

So Renters WILL Pay the Costs of Net Zero

29 May 2025
by Ben Pile

The Net Zero Agenda’s Continued Collapse Into Chaos

28 May 2025
by Ben Pile

Alasdair MacIntyre 1929-2025

27 May 2025
by James Alexander

SOCIAL LINKS

Free Speech Union
  • Home
  • About us
  • Donate
  • Privacy Policy

Facebook

  • X

Instagram

RSS

Subscribe to our newsletter

© Skeptics Ltd.

Welcome Back!

Login to your account below

Forgotten Password? Sign Up

Create New Account!

Fill the forms below to register

All fields are required. Log In

Retrieve your password

Please enter your username or email address to reset your password.

Log In
No Result
View All Result
  • Articles
  • About
  • Archive
    • ARCHIVE
    • NEWS ROUND-UPS
  • Podcasts
  • Newsletter
  • Premium
  • Donate
  • Log In

© Skeptics Ltd.

wpDiscuz
You are going to send email to

Move Comment
Perfecty
Do you wish to receive notifications of new articles?
Notifications preferences