138816
  • Log in
The Daily Sceptic
No Result
View All Result
  • Articles
  • About
  • Archive
    • ARCHIVE
    • NEWS ROUND-UPS
  • Podcasts
  • Newsletter
  • Premium
  • Donate
  • Log In
The Daily Sceptic
No Result
View All Result

Why So Much Talk About Nuclear Weapons?

by Noah Carl
19 October 2022 11:00 AM

During the last two weeks, there’s been a lot of talk about nuclear weapons in Ukraine: specifically, that the Russians might use them.

In an interview with NPR, the political scientist Matthew Bunn said “his best estimate” of the chance Russia uses a nuclear weapon is 10 to 20 percent. And in a widely discussed article, the physicist and ‘existential risk expert’ Max Tegmark gave the chance as 30%.

In a speech on October 6th, Biden referred to the “prospect of Armageddon” and claimed Putin is “not joking” when he talks about using nuclear weapons – comments the New York Times described as “highly unusual for any American president”.

And in an article published four days later, the former CIA director Leon Panetta claimed, “Some intelligence analysts now believe that the probability of the use of tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine has risen from 1-5 percent at the start of the war to 20-25 percent today”.

Biden and Panetta’s comments are especially notable given their provenance – the current president and former CIA director, respectively. Why the sudden focus on a possible nuclear strike?

There are several different theories. The first and most obvious is that the chance of Russia using nukes actually has increased. Putin suffered humiliating defeats in Kharkiv and Kherson, so the theory goes. And once the Ukrainians retake more territory, he might use nuclear weapons to turn the tide of battle, or to force his enemies to the negotiating table.

Yet as Ian Rons argued in the Daily Sceptic, there are good reasons to believe Putin wouldn’t use nuclear weapons even if his army was on the back foot.

A second theory is that claims about a possible Russian nuclear strike are just Western propaganda – another attempt to portray Putin as a deranged warmonger who must be stopped at all costs.

This seems implausible for the simple reason that exaggerating the risk of a nuclear strike could have the opposite effect – of making Westerners more amenable to de-escalation through diplomacy. Indeed, many pundits have cited the estimates above as a reason to sue for peace.

A third theory is that the U.S. is setting the stage for a false flag attack where it detonates a nuclear bomb and then blames it on Russia – creating a pretext for further escalation. This theory is discussed in a lengthy Substack article by an anonymous pro-Russian commentator.

But it seems difficult to believe the U.S. would carry out such a risky operation – which really could spark World War 3. After all, America has already achieved its main strategic objectives: degrading Russia’s armed forces, and driving a wedge between Europe and Russia.

A fourth theory is that the U.S. is preparing the Western public for a climbdown whereby support for Ukraine is withdrawn or some kind of deal is brokered with Russia – perhaps because Western munition stocks are running low.

The fact that Biden referred to “Putin’s off ramp” in his October 6th speech lends some credence to this theory. On the other hand, U.S. officials have repeatedly said they’ll support Ukraine for “as long as it takes”. And according to a recent Washington Post article, they’ve “ruled out the idea of pushing or even nudging Ukraine to the negotiating table”.

I can’t say which, if any, of these theories is right. But it’s certainly alarming to hear presidents and former CIA directors speaking so openly about a potential nuclear strike.  

Tags: Nuclear weaponsRussiaUkraine

Donate

We depend on your donations to keep this site going. Please give what you can.

Donate Today

Comment on this Article

You’ll need to set up an account to comment if you don’t already have one. We ask for a minimum donation of £5 if you'd like to make a comment or post in our Forums.

Sign Up
Previous Post

Where Are All the Vaccine Safety Reports the MHRA Promised Us, Ask Doctors and Scientists

Next Post

Another Vaccine Study on All-Cause Deaths With Nonsensical Results

Subscribe
Login
Notify of
new follow-up comments
    Please log in to comment

    To join in with the discussion please make a donation to The Daily Sceptic.

    Profanity and abuse will be removed and may lead to a permanent ban.

    37 Comments
    Oldest
    Newest Most Voted
    Inline Feedbacks
    View all comments

    NEWSLETTER

    View today’s newsletter

    To receive our latest news in the form of a daily email, enter your details here:

    DONATE

    PODCAST

    The End of American Empire? – With Doug Stokes

    by Richard Eldred
    2 May 2025
    6

    LISTED ARTICLES

    • Most Read
    • Most Commented
    • Editors Picks

    BREAKING: Merz Government Orders Pushback of All Illegal Migrants at German Borders, Effectively Abolishing Asylum

    7 May 2025
    by Eugyppius

    Sun-Dimming Quango has £800 Million of Taxpayer Money to Blow – and a CEO on £450k

    8 May 2025
    by Sallust

    News Round-Up

    8 May 2025
    by Richard Eldred

    Orsted Cancels Hornsea 4 Wind Farm – and Kills Miliband’s ‘Clean Power 2030’ Agenda Dead

    7 May 2025
    by David Turver

    EXCLUSIVE: Britain Forced to Spend £1.5 Billion to Mitigate Wind Turbine Corruptions to Vital Air Defence Radar

    8 May 2025
    by Chris Morrison

    What Does Renaud Camus Actually Believe? Part Two: Is He Really a Conspiracy Theorist?

    26

    BREAKING: Merz Government Orders Pushback of All Illegal Migrants at German Borders, Effectively Abolishing Asylum

    21

    News Round-Up

    18

    EXCLUSIVE: Britain Forced to Spend £1.5 Billion to Mitigate Wind Turbine Corruptions to Vital Air Defence Radar

    15

    Orsted Cancels Hornsea 4 Wind Farm – and Kills Miliband’s ‘Clean Power 2030’ Agenda Dead

    41

    Australia’s Liberal Party Only Has Itself to Blame for its Crushing Defeat by Labour

    8 May 2025
    by Dr James Allan

    EXCLUSIVE: Britain Forced to Spend £1.5 Billion to Mitigate Wind Turbine Corruptions to Vital Air Defence Radar

    8 May 2025
    by Chris Morrison

    What Does Renaud Camus Actually Believe? Part Two: Is He Really a Conspiracy Theorist?

    8 May 2025
    by Steven Tucker

    BREAKING: Merz Government Orders Pushback of All Illegal Migrants at German Borders, Effectively Abolishing Asylum

    7 May 2025
    by Eugyppius

    Definitive Guide to the WHO Pandemic Agreement

    7 May 2025
    by Dr David Bell and Dr Thi Thuy Van Dinh

    POSTS BY DATE

    October 2022
    M T W T F S S
     12
    3456789
    10111213141516
    17181920212223
    24252627282930
    31  
    « Sep   Nov »

    SOCIAL LINKS

    Free Speech Union
    • Home
    • About us
    • Donate
    • Privacy Policy

    Facebook

    • X

    Instagram

    RSS

    Subscribe to our newsletter

    © Skeptics Ltd.

    Welcome Back!

    Login to your account below

    Forgotten Password? Register

    Create New Account!

    Please note: To be able to comment on our articles you'll need to be a registered donor

    Already have an account?
    Please click here to login Log In

    Retrieve your password

    Please enter your username or email address to reset your password.

    Log In
    wpDiscuz
    No Result
    View All Result
    • Articles
    • About
    • Archive
      • ARCHIVE
      • NEWS ROUND-UPS
    • Podcasts
    • Newsletter
    • Premium
    • Donate
    • Log In

    © Skeptics Ltd.

    You are going to send email to

    Move Comment
    Perfecty
    Do you wish to receive notifications of new articles?
    Notifications preferences