Last Saturday, the Daily Sceptic examined the claim reported by Matt McGrath of the BBC that forest fires had nearly doubled in the last 20 years, and the “key factor” was climate change. We looked at the underlying data and found a more rational explanation was the improvement in the collection of satellite data around 2012. The story became the subject of a Twitter fact check by the Forbes climate writer Dave Vetter.
“Once again, climate denier Toby Young is trumpeting fossil fuel industry propaganda. This time it’s about forest fires. He links to his blog Daily Sceptic, a site where a handful of middle aged guys practice science illiteracy”.
One might raise a complaint that Vetter missed “white and pale” out of his introduction, but no matter. He says that I picked several studies to support the contention that there were fewer wildfires today than there were in the past. But Vetter ignored the central data point around which the story was constructed. The data on tree loss came from Global Forest Watch (GFW), which used a satellite feed from the University of Maryland. It was claimed over half the 9.3 million hectares burnt globally were to be found in Russia.
Above is the Russian graph on tree fire loss we published (taken from GFW). We reported that past results going back to 2001 were flat for a decade, then different reporting and modelling came in and, after an initial upward adjustment, they have been flat ever since. Far from global fire losses being “staggering” over the last 20 years, as faithfully reported by the BBC, it’s possible that they haven’t changed much over the period. That was certainly the opinion of the Royal Society in October 2020, which said there had been no overall increase in total area burnt by fire in the past two decades.
At this point, Vetter entered the fray. “Morrison claims there are fewer wildfires today than in the early 20th century, and cites a 2016 paper from Professor Stefan Doerr and Dr Christina Santin who conclude ‘there is less fire in the global landscape than centuries ago’.” Not mentioned by Vetter is the additional statement that the global area burned “appears to have declined over past decades”. Of course, I didn’t make the claim he attributes to me, but reported factually what the two academics had found. At least Vetter is accurate in reporting some of the academics’ views.
But he continued: “Curiously, Morrison doesn’t cite more recent work from Doerr and Santin, who this year wrote ‘wildfire risk has grown nearly everywhere’ and ‘the pace at which fire weather conditions are increasing is accelerating faster than climate models predicted’. Equally curious, it might be noted, is that Vetter is just quoting opinion to counter the “increasing evidence”, supplied by the same academics in 2016, that there is “less fire in the global landscape than centuries ago”. It’s true, however, that many academics go out of their way to stress ‘climate change’ in their work these days. The 2016 paper barely mentioned it. To all intents and purposes, the last statement about climate models is meaningless.
Finally, Vetter tops up the abuse, accusing the Daily Sceptic of “regurgitating the same old debunked lie in order to further their agenda”. The lie in question? This official US wildfires graph:
This graph has long been distressing for those who want to paint a picture of a world ablaze with uncontrolled fires caused by humans changing the climate. So distressing, it seems, that last year the National Interagency Fire Center removed all data before 1983 from its official record. No doubt by the sheerest of coincidences, the new 1983 start date is a convenient low point, so the mainstream media can report that wildfires have recently been increasing in the U.S.
There has been much debate about the validity of this data. Some argue record keeping was not as strict in the earlier part of the 20th century. Different agencies might have recorded fires twice, although others note that some fires would have escaped official notification. But we know that the 1920s and ’30s were prone to high levels of heat in the U.S., and prolonged droughts led to ‘dustbowl’ conditions. The overall downwards fire trend suggests numerous natural factors at work, and anthropogenic climate change is unlikely to have played a big part. Vetter points to a recent PolitiFact fact check in which it was claimed that the “best assessment suggests” that fires today are about on the scale the country saw in the first few decades of the 20th century. PolitiFact provides a list of sources to back up its claim. Many are detailed science papers, but there seems little sign of any serious attempt to cast doubt on the veracity of the full record.
Of course, Vetter can throw around all the abuse he likes. But wildfires are a natural, and vital, part of the Earth’s ecosystem. Humans do not cause fires by warming the planet, although they do ignite a vast number of them, either accidentally or on purpose. Biblical incantations of fire and damnation have always been popular with religious cults – the climate Thermogeddonites are just the latest in a long line.
Chris Morrison is the Daily Sceptic’s Environmental Editor.
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There’s also an increase in alcohol consumption, that can raise the risks of gout.
Methinks that’s rather a case of coincidence of consumption of alcoholic drinks and lots of junk food.
High wine consumption is linked with gout – it’s generally believed that high alcohol consumption leads to over-production of uric acid, which causes gout. Some say red wine in particular, and although my father-in-law is only a sample size of one, he has gout and no one else I know drinks more red wine…
High wine consumption is linked with gout – it’s generally believed that high alcohol consumption leads to over-production of uric acid, which causes gout.
The teetotallers will link everything to alcohol, be it dying of thirst, because of their a priori convicton that everything bad which happens to humans must be caused by it. In reality, nobody really knows what causes gout and nobody’s much interested in knowing, either. It’s a fairly harmless albeit painful disease whose symptoms can be handled with the the usual suspects medication.
What is “junk food”?
Food which should be thrown away before eating due to its atrocious quality. This applies to most of everything which can be bought in all of these street food outlets.
“The number of cases has risen by 20% in three years, with 234,000 patients admitted to hospital with gout in 2021/22, NHS Digital statistics show.”
That’s 234,000 candidates for bogus covid-19 diagnosis, then.
Might not be worth reading in full, but I like the image of the character under the headline! Reminds me of the occasion in early 2020 when he was allegedly admitted to hospital in London (St. Thomas?) with C-19. There was a report from that place as to what his weight was; not nice (the value quoted, not the publication of it!). Apart from what the Mail says, I think it is likely that being overweight can screw up one’s immune system in general. In particular, at least one of our important vitamins (D) tends to be fat prevalent.
In simple terms, being obese tends to make one more vulnerable to a range of different infections, such as the, err, common one under consideration.
I am shocked that people diagnosed with gout are hospitalised.
Agreed.
Gout is predominantly a genetic disorder caused by overproduction or reduced excretion of uric acid.
Inflammatory episodes my be triggered by alcohol, certain dietary factors, dehydration (possible with a heat wave and/or water shortage) or trauma.
In my experience outpatient diagnosis is frequently incorrect as a correct diagnosis relies on aspiration of joint fluid and the finding or monosodium urate crystals in the fluid.
Even that can sometimes give an incorrect diagnosis.
Since Covid “vaccines” have become prevalent I have seen a huge increase in presentations with acute joint swelling.
Some of these have been labelled as gout by ED staff.
I have performed multiple joint aspirations on these patients as well as other investigations, and found very few to be caused by gout.
My conclusion is that Covid “vaccines” cause inflammatory joint swelling in a proportion of patients.
I have seen no increase in gout presentations.
It is very rare for a patient to be admitted to hospital for gout.
Many thanks for this in-depth explanation.
Very interesting. A friend gets gout and he doesn’t drink alcohol but has to put up with all the comments that go with being diagnosed.
My first post so be gentle with me.
My first cynical thought was that, as gout is a consequence of excess purine intake (port and red wine, but also red meat and, curiously, fructose – https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/16234313/) this story would be yet another flag-waver for the insect diet. I was gratified to find this – as yet uncensored – little gem which notes the high levels of purine in several edible insect species. https://www.wageningenacademic.com/doi/abs/10.3920/JIFF2018.0023
While still playing into the pockets of Big Pharma ref drug based treatment options, the best, cheapest and most effective solution is the phrase ‘oi lard*rse, stop stuffing your face with cr*p and get some exercise’.
Excellent first post so please keep them coming.
Pleased to welcome you aboard.
Thanks!
Seconded!
Gout may be caused by excess histamine consumption and/or production. Foods high in histamine include prawns, seafood, oily fish eg salmon, cured meats, aged cheeses, avocado, pickles, wine, sherry and port, and foods which trigger histamine production include egg whites eg in meringues and macaroons, chocolate, citrus fruits, horseradish, shellfish, strawberries, and some nuts …. basically my favourite foods ( when not eating gluten, at which times my favourite food is pizza!
), and traditionally central to the diet of the rich.
I did think that the swollen and tingling toes said to be part of covid symptoms at one point might be something else.
A very powerful instant anti-histamine is vitamin C, which is a relief! ( I had an attack recently, with the odd nausea it can cause too, after eating a bit more sashimi, seafood, and avocado than I’m used to, and drinking plum wine and sherry with them )
Lemons are very useful as they are usually much richer in vitamin C than in their histamine triggers. And high-strength soluble vitamin C tablets will also usually work to relieve symptoms.
Some people are more sensitive to/prone to histamine “storms” than others.
Histamine is essentially an inflammatory reaction, and can be exacerbated by stress …
Sunshine , and Vitamin D, on the other hand help to down-regulate the immune system’s tendency to inflammation … A lot of people may have lost out on their usual doses of Vitamin D over the last 2 years. ( Rich people used to avoid the sun because white skin was prized as sign that didn’t have to work ( outside )).
Interestingly, ( to me anyway
), in the context of covid, “long covid”, and the changes in behaviour and diet that lockdowns caused, ( less time outdoors and different foods eaten because at home ), excess of histamine consumption and/or production can cause not only the swollen, red, sore fingers and toes and stiff aching joints which may be diagnosed as gout, but also the following:
Chronic inflammation
Tingling/numbness in hands and feet
Difficulty regulating body temperature and an increased tendency to sweating
Hives, rashes, itchy skin, flushing
( Quite frightening ) racing heart/heart palpitations
Low blood pressure
Difficulty/obstructed breathing, sinus issues, bronchitis
Post-nasal drip, persistent throat clearing, weepy eyes
Digestive disturbances/distress
Headaches, dizziness
Anxiety/feelings of dread
Insomnia
Chronic fatigue
Thyroid disruption and all that can lead to; energy and mood disorders among other things
Histamine has a systemic effect on the body. And lockdowns may have had a significant effect on people’s levels of histamine by keeping them indoors, ( out of the sun, with no holidays to top up, with resulting loss of vitamin D which would normally keep inflammation in check ), and by perhaps encouraging increased consumption of the higher-histamine foods which are usually the most expensive or only present in small quantities in restaurant dishes but somewhat cheaper/more affordable when bought in supermarkets.
With adequate exposure to ultra violet B from the Sun being our source of power to create our own vitamin D. Otherwise, we need supplement it via our diet. Not going out enough can therefore be contradictory to good health. Worth noting that other animals that spend time outside, such as grazing the fields, do the same thing – even through their fur, which UV B penetrates.
Did Saint Boris and his merry men expect a nation in perfect health, after he literally criminalised exercise? The consequences of the hallowed lockdowns are coming in thick and fast, just as we said they would.
As for gout: Hyancinth Bucket (lockdown snitch personified) once said “gout comes from an excess of good living”, when she made Richard pretend he had gout, instead of a mere fungus infection.
“Over-Eating and Lack of Exercise During Lockdown Has Triggered Huge Increase…” in illnesses, both physical and mental across much of the UK population.
It is important that the correct perspective is taken when the health of the community at large is under discussion.
Once you accept that many other health issues could be substituted for ‘gout’ it is nigh on impossible to refute the conclusion that all of this is intentional.
Stating the obvious but the government (and opposition) are clueless (or ambivalent) about health issues. Do they even have a policy on orthomolecular (nutritional) medicine? Of course they won’t, it’s not profitable enough to them.
But they probably have shares in the elastane/spandex/Lycra ® industry?
Reminds me of The Fast Show and ‘Does my bum look big in this?’
So nobody thought that sitting around, doing nothing but bingeing on delivered food, whilst boozing to excess would have a negative impact on their health? Truly, common sense is not very common.