The clock might be ticking down to the final UKHSA Vaccine Surveillance report that includes data by vaccination status, but at least this week there are more data to explore.
Cases
Anyone managing to avoid the 24/7 coverage of the disaster in Ukraine might have had the opportunity to be told about the ‘disaster’ that is the ever increasing number of Covid cases in the country. The UKHSA data are a week or so behind the times, but nevertheless they are now showing a substantial increase in cases compared with last week’s release (details of methodology and limitations can be found here).
A comparison with last week’s data shows that in the 18-80 age range cases are up about 30% in the triple vaccinated, whereas they’re only up approximately 15% in the unvaccinated and those vaccinated with only one or two doses. Thus it appears that this is a Covid wave of the boosted. This trend is most visible in the rate of change of case rate over the last few weeks (data shown for those aged 40-80 only).
Not only are the case rates in the unvaccinated far lower than the triple jabbed, but in recent weeks they’ve also not been rising at the same rate either. Hopefully we’ll get at least one more data point from the UKHSA to see how this changes as we progress further into the current Covid wave.
It isn’t clear whether the rise in cases in the unvaccinated and one or two dosed is because of an intrinsic sensitivity to what is probably Omicron BA.2 variant, or whether it is because of the immense infectious pressure caused by the high levels of infection in the boosted.
The press is full of stories about how the BA.2 variant is as infectious as measles and thus it shouldn’t be surprising that we’ve got ever increasing case numbers at present. However, it seems that this isn’t the case everywhere. For example, compare Covid case rates in the U.K. with those in South Africa.
Note how both the U.K. and South Africa had a pronounced Omicron wave at the end of 2021, but South Africa just hasn’t had any BA.2 variant wave at all, let alone a pronounced one. Omicron BA.2 is known to be present in South Africa, so it isn’t simply because it hasn’t got there yet. Readers are welcome to suggest any differences in the populations of the U.K. and South Africa that might explain their lack of a BA.2 wave.
The relative increase in infections has of course led to changes in the estimate of vaccine effectiveness against infection this week.
The raw UKHSA data is once again suggesting that vaccination increases the risk of infection, and the more doses you receive the higher the increase in risk and thus the lower the vaccine effectiveness estimate. The unadjusted vaccine effectiveness in the triple-jabbed in the 60-69 year-old age bracket is pushing on for minus-400%, corresponding to an infection rate five times that of the unvaccinated.
The drop in the estimate of vaccine effectiveness against infection since the start of the year has been rather remarkable.
In those aged under 50, for those that have received only one or two doses of vaccine there appears to be a slow recovery back to the baseline levels (i.e., unvaccinated). However, for the boosted we see the year starting with low vaccine effectiveness (possibly reflecting an increased susceptibility to Covid immediately after vaccination), then a sharp rise in effectiveness (yet still deeply negative) for a few weeks as the vaccines went through a short period when they at least tried to offer protection, and then a week-by-week reduction in effectiveness that shows no signs of slowing down. Whether this is a simple time effect following a vaccine dose (and the triple vaccinated will eventually recover also) or whether it is a dose effect (and the triple vaccinated will remain more susceptible to Covid) remains to be seen.
A similar trend is seen in the data for those aged over 50, albeit without the initial with very low vaccine effectiveness (this may reflect those aged over 50 getting boosted earlier than those aged under 50).
Hospitalisation
Hospitalisation rates remain low; this is likely because Omicron variants have intrinsically lower pathogenicity. Hospitalisation rates in the younger age groups are particularly low.
The data appear to show little effect of vaccine against hospitalisation for those under the age of 60. The outlier is for those aged under 18 – this is probably an artefact related to the specifics of which individuals were vaccinated and when, but it is possible that Omicron BA.2 has mutated to become more infectious in this age group.
The change in hospitalisation rates by vaccination status since the start of the year shows some interesting effects:
In general the effectiveness of one or two doses of the vaccines at preventing hospitalisation has reached a steady state at about minus-50% and the protection offered by three doses of vaccine has been dropping each week, though remains positive – albeit marginally so for those over 80.
However, there appears to be an improvement in vaccine effectiveness for some age groups, most obviously seen in the data for those aged under 30. This is an interesting effect and may be related to differences seen in the time course of infection discussed in previous posts. A similar effect was seen at the start of previous Covid waves. It was first noted back in June 2021, when at the start of that Covid wave there were many stories in the press about how the unvaccinated made up the vast majority of hospitalisations; there were no updates in the press a few weeks later when the majority of hospitalisations were in the vaccinated. Thus the apparent increase in vaccination effectiveness seen in the triple-jabbed young may be an artefact related to the unvaccinated becoming hospitalised sooner, and, if so, it should reverse over the coming weeks.
Deaths
The data for deaths by vaccine status show a similar progression as seen for hospitalisation – those that have been given only one or two doses of vaccine show an increased risk of death compared with the unvaccinated, whereas the triple-vaccinated appear still to have some protection.
Of note in the above graph are the data for those aged 40-50; in this age group the protection offered by three doses of vaccine is now close to zero.
As I have mentioned in previous weeks, it is possible that the mortality data has been corrupted by those closest to death not being vaccinated with the latest dose (a form of the healthy vaccinee effect) – this would have the effect of raising the apparent effectiveness of the latest dose of vaccine but would substantially lower the apparent effectiveness of one or two doses. Because of this effect I believe that it is more instructive to analyse the deaths data by ‘any dose of vaccine’ versus the unvaccinated. In our exemplar group (those aged 40 to 50) the mortality rates in the unvaccinated are now statistically identical to those that have taken at least one dose of vaccine.
While the data suggest that the mortality rate within 60 days of a positive test is now greater in the vaccinated, this is not yet statistically significant – data for other age groups suggest that the vaccines simply offer no protection against death after infection with Omicron variant in those aged under 70.
It is important to recognise that the death rate from Covid in the younger age groups is very low, and even if there were a slight increased risk of death in the vaccinated aged under 70, this would not have much real world impact (although the vaccinated might find it very annoying). Also, note that these are only the deaths within 60 days of a positive test – there is no information on non-Covid death rates and vaccination status in the UKHSA data.
Last week I noted that death rates in the triple-vaccinated between 28 and 60 days after a positive test are now proportionately greater than those in the unvaccinated. This effect has only increased in magnitude in the latest data:
It is unclear why there should now be so many deaths in the period between 28 days and 60 days following a positive test, but these latest data offer more evidence that any Covid statistics that only consider deaths within 28 (or 30) days of infection will be significantly under-reporting the true death rates from (or with) Covid.
Amanuensis is an ex-academic and senior Government scientist. He blogs at Bartram’s Folly.
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Where’s the emergency?
The MHRA is a disgrace to chocolate fireguards.
20 million doses for hard to reach people?
How are there possibly going to be 20m unvaccinated people left when the rollout of the other jabs is done?
I am planning on staying very hard to reach!
You are not alone.
Same here, I feel there are many like us.
Sorry to say that almost 100% of my friends, family and colleagues have been jabbed or plan to be
Me too. We are the control group. Stay strong – we’ll have to re-populate the earth in a few years time.
As a guy, I’m very much looking forward to this whole “repopulate” business.
Read my mind, I’m good for a while yet, I hope…
LOL!
Most women, I’m sure, are not. OK by me, though, I’m over age.
Snap!
Down boy!
I am 71 I declined and will continue to do so. Looking for a place to live where I am not forced to take this poison.
Same here.
I’m a bit old to be involved in repopulation, however I intend to hang around to teach the young.
You have my empathy. The rationales vary – but it’s getting hard to find those who have given snake oil the finger.
None of my immediate family have had or want the jabs. Quite a few friends have suddenly said they don’t want it either! There is some hope.
See you in Hardtoreachville.
Hardly a selling point, Roll-Up, Roll-Up, get your blood clot in one dose instead of two! Bargain!!
It is not possible to give informed consent for any of the Covid vaccines, unless of course you happen to be suicidal.
Absolutely spot on! You can’t say there has been any informed consent if it is based on the lie that there is a deadly disease that threatens us all. That is before you consider the finer points of what exactly people were told or not told pre-vaccination about risk and relevance to that individual.
We are witnessing a monstrous crime whose consequences are likely to be suffered for at least a generation.
Johnson & Johnson Has a Long Rap Sheet — Why Should We Trust Its Vaccine?
https://childrenshealthdefense.org/defender/johnson-johnson-why-trust-vaccine/
We need to seriously challenge J&J’s reputation. A 2019 report by the British intelligence firm Alva has noted that J&J’s reputation has sunk dramatically during the past years, from ninth place among 58 major pharmaceutical firms to 57th place. Certainly, this is not a company with a clean ethical record.
A review of J&J’s rap sheet over the past three decades presents a dire and contrary image that should lead us to question the company’s claims about its COVID-19 vaccine given the lucrative market the pandemic has created for the most aggressive medical corporations.
Read the article and hit the links. ABSOLUTELY SHOCKING!
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/23/health/baby-powder-cancer.html
I can’t wait to see Hancock tried for his crimes against humanity
Emergency use authorisation for 4 vaccines?..Aw c’mon..
For fuck’s sake!
CDC has a warning on it and we’ve placed an order, that on top of the 60m doses earlier this week
of another poison I can’t remember the name of! How many people really live here then?
Them: another vaccine. Take the vaccine. Vaccine. Vaccine. Take it. Save lives. Save the NHS. Take it. Then you’ll be free. Freedom. Do you want it? Freedom. Vaccine.
Me: how many times do you need me to tell you to fuck off?!
Here here, wife and I binned another 2 vax invites today.
I find it a bit spooky that I only ever had one, and that was months ago. I was inundated with invites for the flu jab, which I also refused.
Health Secretary Matt Hancock described the approval as “a further boost to the U.K.’s hugely successful vaccination programme, which has already saved over 13,000 lives”…
How the hell can he make such an outrageous statement. Were these 13,000 people about to be executed and Hancock has given them a reprieve? Were they in immediate mortal danger and someone with a syringe of vaccine rushed in and saved them like a fireman dragging them from a burning building.. ? This is utter garbage.
Hancock murdered 40,000 by forcing the NHS to send diseased patients into care homes
Is this reason number 16-21?
What a lying POS handoncock is
It’s been estimated by two different studies that between 200,000 and 500,000 in the U.K. will die as a result of lockdowns from delayed treatments etc etc., so 13,000 “lives saved” doesn’t sound all that many in comparison does it? Must do better Matt!
Here’s a clue, no lives have EVER been saved, just extended a bit.
(Well there was that guy 2000 years ago but that’s just an anecdote)
In the USA, the Catholic bishops have formally advised people wanting a vaccination to steer away from the J&J vaccine because of its greater link to abortion than the others available there.
So a little link to abortion is ok, but a big link isn’t.
They used to call this casuistry. As Pascal pointed out long ago, casuistry can be used to justify anything, up to and including murder.
Actually casuistry is reasoning your way through moral dilemmas and there is nothing wrong with that in principal. And if you want to be absolutist on the question of abortion then using the NHS in any form wouldn’t be justifiable. However, abortion is a reason why I wouldn’t use any of the vaccines – the danger of covid is just simply not great enough when balanced against the association of any of these particular vaccines with abortion.
the external action service has assessed vaccine disinformation:
https://euvsdisinfo.eu/eeas-special-report-update-short-assessment-of-narratives-and-disinformation-around-the-covid-19-pandemic-update-december-2020-april-2021/
Thanks for the link.
You lot at 77 have been quiet lately.
How’s little fon?
Little fon
Just carries on.
He’s not yet in 77
Heaven.
Decided to read it. It’s an odd document published by the EEAS who work for the European Union. It’s main thrust is about disinformation from Russia and China in relation to European Vaccinations, and about disinformation in the eastern block re the same. As I said, an odd document, but not about antivaxx type disinformation. I’m not sure it informs us of anything we didn’t know, namely that China and Russia are liars and involved in one upmanship and the EU isn’t far behind!
I’m sold. Wasn’t sure about the other ones but now the J&J is finally here, I’m gonna go for it. After all they do make great talc… wait… no, I’ve changed my mind. They can fuck off.
If you look at the label in the vaccine package, in the US it adds in small blue fonts: For use under Emergency Use Authorisation
However, this is not mentioned anywhere in the UK label.
Why?
EU does not approve under Emergency Use Authorisation (a temporary approval that must be renewed or withdrawn and comes with tight monitoring conditions), EMA has provision called Article 5(3) that says individual states are free to decide to use a new medicine. MHRA gives formal approval based on available data.
How stupid can you get
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57260463
I cant think of a word because stupid doesn’t cut it does it? We have a saying in Barnsley, ‘yer can’t educate pork!’ Fitting in these circumstances.
No comments, mine would have been what a complete twat.
A well-programmed robot.
Estimated phase 3 study completion date: 2 Jan 2023
https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/shEstimatedow/NCT04505722
No thanks
Mike Yeadon is right. We are in the presence of great evil.
Everyday proves that he’s right with, for example, officialdom turning a deliberately blind eye to the dangers of the barely tested “vaccines” while all the evidence shows that the pandemic (sic) is disappearing faster than they can dream up new exotic-sounding variants.
For crying out loud, how can we turn the tables on these buggers? It’s not going to be easy. Too many nincompoops accept whatever they read in the bought and paid for MSM.
We will ONLY make any headway with a political approach; funding, eloquent spokesmen, charismatic leader, volunteer network, professional social media and comms and based on a strong grassroots presence. At https://backtonormal.org.uk/ we have the grassroots local presence across the UK and a unique approach (old school, below-the-radar doorstep delivery) which could be the start of at least one component of the required mix.
Anything else is, I’m afraid, just a pressure group in a crowded field
Thanks. I’d MUCH rather be wrong, but I’m not. I’m not only good at what I do (essentially, scientific pattern spotting when there’s insufficient data for most people) but I’m now completely obsessive. I don’t do anything else but this, really.
And the more we look at what’s happening around the world as well as the direction of travel, the only question I have is “Has the trigger already been pulled or not?”
I’ve been surprised at the toxicity of these ‘first generation’ vaccines, but that’s based on the assumption that Gen 1 is mostly about getting people onto vaccine passports.
I’ve also weighted the extreme lying about variants (and the narrative that additional vaccinations will be required) as meaningful.
I’ve seen an even darker suggestion that holds that ADE will kill the majority who have already been vaccinated. That would be pretty distressing.
I mean, you’d need facilities to store the dead bodies.
Like this?
Picking up the offspring for half term today, having coffee with the other parents.
One confided their half term plans had changed as her husband had come down with shingles.
“oh? and did he have the vaccine about 2 weeks ago?”
What a surprise. He had. She had no idea it could be related. Obviously no yellow card. And no clue that it was anything other than a coincidence. CRIMINAL.
Shingles can leave you lifelong post herpetic neuralgia. It should not be trivialised.
Makes sense. For the benefit of some who might not be aware, ‘Shingles’ is caused by a ‘dormant’ virus that we have in stock for many years after dealing with Chickenpox. I had Shingles in the middle of winter 2012/13. In my case it was treated with Aciclovir, and no real problem. Of course, at that time the pharmacy and the surgery was open for normal business!
People keep pumping these vaccines into there bodies – what could possibly go wrong?
The same J & J vaccine paused in the USA? Since when did blood clotting caused by a “vaccine” be considered OKAY? Does anyone else see this as a problem? Please read the most recent CDC VAERS released yesterday. Makes for an eye watering read.
To the monsters behind it all, it wouldn’t matter a jot if some people spontaneously combusted after being injected…and sadly, there would still be people queuing up for it because the injection saves lives…
German Scientists Find How Broken Parts Of COVID-19 Vaccines Mutate To Trigger Blood Clots
German scientists have found out how the broken parts of Johnson & Johnson and AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccines branded as Covishield in India mutate to trigger blood clots in recipients. Scientists say the vaccine is sent into the cell nucleus instead of surrounding fluid, where parts of it break off and create mutated versions of themselves. The mutated versions then enter the body and trigger the blood clots.
How the hell are we going to get rid of these people ? Johnson, Hancock, the rest of those dosey twats in the House of Commons, Drs that tow the line, politicians that tow the line, journalists that are too dim not to tow the line ?