The long shadow war between Iran and Israel broke into the open this morning with the launch of Operation Rising Lion, targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities and high command. It’s a war that is only just beginning, says Jonathan Spyer in the Spectator. Here’s an excerpt.
With the launch of Operation ‘Rising Lion’ against Iranian nuclear and military facilities overnight, Israel appears to have sought to take advantage of a narrow window of opportunity. Through its own actions over the last 18 months, the Iranian regime brought itself to a moment of extreme vulnerability. Tehran found itself in an uncomfortable position in which it continued to seek to prosecute its long war against Israel – intended to result in the Jewish state’s demise – while at the same time finding itself shorn of many of the capacities for aggression and defence on which it had relied. Israel has just struck through this narrow window. Iranian retaliation appears certain. As such, the two countries are now in a state of open war.
The weakening of Iran in recent months has occurred on two directly related fronts. Firstly, Tehran has long relied on a system of proxies to conduct aggression against enemies and to deter said enemies from responding. The attack by the Tehran-aligned Hamas organisation against Israel on October 7th 2023 led to a partial and piecemeal mobilisation by Iranian proxies to assist Hamas as it faced Israel’s determined counter-attack in Gaza.
The result of this partial counter-mobilisation – by Lebanese Hezbollah, the Yemeni Ansar Allah (Houthis) and the Iraqi Shia militias – was not, however, the one that Tehran had hoped for. Far from, as intended, forcing Israel to abandon its effort to destroy Hamas in Gaza, Iran’s mobilisation of proxies has resulted in the severe weakening of the proxies themselves.
In retrospect, it is clear that Iran had made one of the cardinal errors of irregular warfare – namely, never allow yourself to be drawn into open battle against a conventionally superior adversary. By attempting to strike at Israel at a time when Jerusalem was already engaged in war, Iran’s proxies brought down the full weight of Israel’s advanced capacities for air and intelligence warfare on their own heads.
The result? Lebanese Hezbollah, Tehran’s main tool for power projection and deterrence, is today a shadow of its former self. Its historic leadership has been destroyed, its mid-level cadres decimated, its military array along the border obliterated, and its advanced weapons systems severely depleted.
The Iraqi Shia militias, too, unilaterally pulled out of the fight in late 2024. …
The precise dimensions of the damage Israel has inflicted on Iran’s nuclear capacities and its senior military command have not yet become apparent. They are likely to be considerable but far short of a knockout blow. Iranian retaliation appears to be already under way. That won’t be a conclusive move either. Which means, in short, that the long overture in the conflict between Israel and Iran is completed. The main part is now beginning.
Worth reading in full.
Donald Trump, meanwhile, has said that Israel struck Iran after a 60-day deadline expired to make a deal over its nuclear programme. From the Telegraph:
“Two months ago I gave Iran a 60 day ultimatum to “make a deal”. They should have done it!” the US President said on Truth Social.
He went on: “I told them what to do, but they just couldn’t get there. Now they have, perhaps, a second chance!”
It comes after Mr Trump told ABC News that Israel’s attack was “excellent” and warned there was more to come.
“I think it’s been excellent. We gave them a chance and they didn’t take it. They got hit hard, very hard. They got hit about as hard as you’re going to get hit. And there’s more to come. A lot more,” he said.
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