Studies consistently find that people overestimate the share of immigrants in the population. Many Left-wing commentators have taken this as evidence that people are systematically misinformed about immigration, due to ‘disinformation’ from the ‘Right-wing media’. The problem with this argument is that people overestimate the share of all groups that are less than 50% of the population – for reasons that have nothing to do with prejudice or ‘disinformation’.
In a new study, Laurenz Guenther asks people a slightly different question: “How many asylum seekers are there in the country?” (the absolute number, not the share). And he finds that they substantially underestimate the amount. His study reports several other interesting findings. Let’s dig in.
Guenther recruited a broadly representative sample of the German population to complete an online survey concerning immigration (n = 2,104). In addition to the usual demographic questions, respondents were asked, “How many asylum seekers are there in Germany?” They were then assigned randomly to one of three groups: the first group was a control that received no further information, while the second group was informed about the actual number of asylum seekers who are living in Germany. (The third group is less important.) Respondents in the second group were then re-asked, “How many asylum seekers are there in Germany?” to make sure they’d understood the information. Finally, all respondents were asked several questions about their attitudes to immigration.
The chart below plots data from respondents in the second group. Their initial estimates of the number of asylum seekers are shown in blue. Their revised estimates, after being told the true figure, are shown in yellow.
As you can see, there is a dramatic difference between the two distributions. The blue distribution is way further to the left, indicating that respondents’ initial estimates were far too low. (Interestingly, respondents’ revised estimates were too high, rather than being exactly right, suggesting that they may have slightly misunderstood the information they were given.) The median initial estimate was 100,000, whereas the true figure is about a million.
Having established that Germans underestimate the number of asylum seekers in Germany, Guenther looked to see whether correcting their misperceptions would change their attitudes to immigration. He did this by comparing the control group to the second group. His results were somewhat mixed. While those in the second group scored higher on two measures of opposition to immigration, they scored no higher on two measures of support for the AfD. In any case, there was no evidence that people became more supportive of immigration.
Another interesting result from Guenther’s analysis is that respondents were much more opposed to asylum seekers than to other types of immigration. And when he divided them up into four groups based on where they stood on these two broad categories of immigration, he found that people who were opposed to asylum seekers but not to other types were more educated than average. (By contrast, those who were opposed to both broad categories of immigrations were less educated than average.)
Guenther’s study shows that Germans are misinformed about asylum seekers: they think there are many fewer than there actually are. This stands in contrast to the general Left-wing narrative according to which people vastly inflate immigrant numbers thanks to a constant barrage of inflammatory headlines in the Right-wing press. Opposition to asylum seekers, it turns out, isn’t rooted in misperceptions.
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So there’s more than we’re being told, what a shocker!
Sceptic item by Lord Young in June 2022 (caveat YouGov poll):
https://dailysceptic.org/2022/06/05/british-public-vastly-overestimates-size-of-minority-groups/
“According to a new poll by YouGov, the British public think various minority groups make up a far larger percentage of the population that they really do. Is it because minorities are so over-represented in the mainstream media?”
Go figure.
Every married couple in ads are mixed race black/white (never Asian in the mix) and black peoples are unbiquitous in every street, shop, office, car, bus, train, and every situation with an occasional white persona in the background.
Anti white racism
Black male – white female.
You could also say that they feature in the crime statistics at a much higher level.
Quite reasonably Germans are feeling unsafe due to the effects of so much mass immigration and the fact their treacherous government is so rubbish when it comes to prioritizing their personal safety;
”Germans have never felt less safe, new data shows.
“This feeling that if I’m in the wrong place at the wrong time, it could cost me my life. This is increasing rapidly in Germany.”
“81% of respondents are convinced that Germany has taken in too many refugees.”
https://x.com/RMXnews/status/1887082273247268948
Case in point here. Not even safe in your own home. The take-away here is never open the door until you establish who it is first. It’s just a good job he was armed with a stick as opposed to a knife;
”A 42-year-old Syrian asylum seeker was temporarily detained at a psychiatric unit in Germany after allegedly attacking a woman in her own home, telling the stranger he had to kill her because she had given him cancer.
The disturbing incident occurred in Sankt Augustin, a town in the Rhein-Sieg district in North Rhine-Westphalia.
The attack occurred one morning when Anna, the victim, was in her bathroom. Hearing the doorbell ring, she assumed it was her husband who had forgotten something after leaving for work and opened the door. Instead, a man dressed in black forced his way inside, threw her to the ground, and began hitting her with a stick.
Anna sustained head injuries and began bleeding, but a brief distraction from her dog gave her the opportunity to escape. She ran outside, screaming for help, and alerted neighbors who quickly called the police.
Responding to Anna’s cries, neighbors intervened and managed to subdue the attacker until law enforcement arrived. According to Anna, the suspect made chilling statements, claiming he needed to kill her and remove her heart because she had given him cancer.”
https://rmx.news/article/syrian-attacks-woman-in-her-own-home-threatens-to-kill-her-and-cut-out-her-heart/
“Many Left-wing commentators have taken this as evidence that people are systematically misinformed about immigration, due to ‘disinformation’ from the ‘Right-wing media’.”
Would these be the same Left-wing lunatics who insist immigrants make up a significant and vital proportion of the population, that might explain why people over-estimate immigrant numbers?
London appears on national news more often than any other part of the country. London has a huge number of asylum seekers, illegals and of legal immigration.
This will inform the public’s perception, as will woke advertising mentioned by others.