This week, the Labour party released its manifesto and, as expected, there was much of what we have been hearing for some time about illegal Channel crossings – “go after the criminal gangs”, “create a new Border Security Command” and “smash the gangs”. The party will also “fast-track removals to safe countries people who do not have the right to stay here… and negotiate additional returns arrangements to speed up returns and increase the number of safe countries that failed asylum seekers can swiftly be sent back to”.
Really? Are these safe countries that we already have agreements with or are the agreements yet to be negotiated? Labour is of course also going to dismantle the Rwanda plan. Having come this far with it and after millions of taxpayers’ money on the scheme, one would have thought it at least worth a try to see if it works. Surely, the taxpayer is owed that at least.
So much of what Labour is proposing is either already being done or will have the effect of drawing in more migrants – like swifter clearance, which will amount to asylum or leave to remain on the nod for those from areas of the world they can’t be sent back to. And asylum in all but name for those in the queue, now around 35,000.
As for legal immigration – the much bigger problem (we heard just three weeks ago that the provisional figure for the whole of 2023 was a colossal (net) 685,000) – there was little of substance on how it would be reduced, beyond “reforming the points-based immigration system so that it is fair and properly managed, with appropriate restrictions on visas, and by linking immigration and skills policy”. Labour will also not “tolerate employers or recruitment agencies abusing the visa system” or “stand for breaches of employment law”.
I do not believe that any of this will have much impact on the present scale of immigration. Moreover, any limited impact will be slow in coming. I do not see net migration falling below half a million during the next Parliament. While net migration of 600,000 will be adding the equivalent of a city the size of Birmingham every two years.
One thing that struck me about what was in Labour’s manifesto was its similarity to what was in the 2019 Tory manifesto:
Only by establishing immigration controls and ending freedom of movement will we be able to attract the high-skilled workers we need to contribute to our economy, our communities and our public services. There will be fewer lower-skilled migrants and overall numbers will come down.
Look where that got us.
The Conservatives, who appear to have accepted that they are in for a drubbing on July 4th, published their manifesto two days earlier. It included the commitment to “stop the boats” by persevering with their Rwanda plan and to reduce legal migration by introducing a cap, something my colleagues and I at Migration Watch have been calling for, for at least four years. As Mike Jones, our Executive Director said on first reading the manifesto, “Too little, too late”. Here’s our press release and comment.
Forgive me if I gloss over the LibDems on immigration – little point. Same with the SNP, Greens or Plaid Cymru. But what about Reform, who, it seems, has overtaken the Tories in the polls? It is, after all, now claiming it will be the real opposition to the next Government. Be that as it may, what one can say is that it does appear to be alone in capturing the mood of the majority on the issue of immigration and how to reduce it.
Reform proposes to cut immigration by applying a cap that will be equal to the number of people leaving the country. As already mentioned, we believe a cap is essential for immigration to be reduced. What we are not sure about is how “one in one out”, as Reform is suggesting, would work in practice. However, what we do go along with is that without a cap there is little chance of reducing net migration (which determines population growth) to the sort of levels that will lead to our population settling at manageable levels.
We have another three weeks of debates, claims and counterclaims. Will we hear anything convincing or workable from Labour or the Tories on how the current catastrophic levels of immigration will be reduced? I doubt it.
Alp Mehmet is the Chairman of Migration Watch U.K. Find Migration Watch and Alp on X.
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