Daily Sceptic Editor Will Jones wrote a piece this week concerning an article in the Lancet highlighting the high level of deaths occurring particularly among young and middle-aged people from causes such as heart failure, cirrhosis and diabetes.
Will pointed to an article in the Mail about the Lancet article, which to me seemed little more than a rehash something I wrote almost two months ago using exactly the same data from the same sources. However, if you read my article you’ll appreciate that the situation is rather worse than that presented in the Lancet or Mail due to the high level of ‘death inflation’ that mortality statistics have been subject to in recent years.
Nonetheless, the conclusions of the Mail and Lancet were similar to mine in that we all suggested that perhaps someone should be asking “why are all these extra deaths occurring?”
Unlike the Mail or Lancet, though, I would not wish to dismiss the idea that the vaccines might have something to do with the 26% increase in ‘expected’ deaths from heart failure since 2020 and the actual deaths from heart failure in 2023.
In contrast, the Mail rejected any idea that the vaccines might have anything to do with it (not a view shared by their ‘below the line’ commentators who seemed fairly unanimous on where blame lay!)
Indeed, the Mail’s article included this sentence:
Anti-vaxxers have claimed excess deaths are down to Covid jabs but scientists insist that the injections, which have saved tens of millions of lives globally, are not to blame.
Oh, that’s all right then. It wasn’t the vaccines wot done it after all! Silly me for even wondering.
But where exactly where does this “tens of millions of lives” saved globally come from? Well, blow me down with a feather, it’s none other than those well-known pantomime villains at Imperial College London. The claim comes from an article published on June 24th 2022 stating that 20 million lives were saved by the vaccines in the 12 months from December 8th 2020 to December 8th 2021.
By December 8th 2021, a total of 5.32 million people had, according to Our World in Data, died of or with Covid. According to the good people of Imperial College London, if the vaccines hadn’t existed, 20 million more, some 25.32 million people, would have died by that point.
Figure 1 puts these ‘saved lives’ in context. The blue line titled ‘World’ is the figure for ‘actual’ deaths. The vastly higher purple line is the implied deaths line if Imperial’s figures are correct. The difference between the lines is the 20 million ‘saved’ lives. (See a similar chart produced by Norman Fenton and Martin Neil last year.)
Is this in any way credible? Well, perhaps the first place to have a look is the vaccine stats. To die of or with Covid by December 8th 2021 you would have had to catch it a few weeks earlier, perhaps November 10th. Figure 2 shows the proportion of the world’s population who were vaccinated between December 8th 2020 and December 8th 2021; it wasn’t until November 10th 2021 that 50% of the population had had a single jab. At the beginning of June only around 10% of the World’s population had been jabbed.
Of course, the only possible explanation as to how, despite only vaccinating a minority of the world’s population, the vaccines supposedly cut deaths four-fold is that it must have been the ‘unvaxxed’ who kept dying, right?
Now here we have to revert to U.K. data as deaths by vaccination status haven’t been published by many countries. But let’s see what we can do. Figure 3 is taken from Table 13(b) of the UKHSA’s Vaccine Surveillance Report for week 13 2022. It shows that only 7.9% of all Covid deaths within 60 days of a positive test were of the unvaccinated. Which, of course, means that 92.1% of Covid deaths were of vaccinated people.
The same report also shows us that of the most vaccinated age-cohort, the over-80s, while about 93% were vaccinated, 7% weren’t.
Clearly, the unvaccinated weren’t dying at a disproportionate rate to the vaccinated. The Imperial claim of 20 million saved lives is nonsense. The very real questions over why so many people are dying remain very much open.
When, in a couple of months the Mail ‘breaks’ the story, “Experts cast doubt on Imperial’s claim that vaccines saved 20 million lives”, you can say, with a degree of satisfaction, “Call that news? We sceptics have known that for yonks”.
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The term anti-vaxer lumps everybody that ‘they’ do not like- in short it is part of psy-op. If you took the vaccine, but opposed the vaccine mandates- ANTI-VAXER. What if you are fine with vaccines over-all, but want to wait a bit longer just to see what happens with the covid vaccine – ANTI-VAXER. Or if you simply want your medical products to have better evidence of safety and benefit- ANTI-VAXER. I’d say these scientist should be able to back up their claim – of course that would simply mean I am officially an ANTI-VAXER.
What if you are fine with vaccines over-all, but want to wait a bit longer just to see what happens with the covid vaccine …
I was one of those initially, but right now I’m perfectly happy to be an anti-vaxer with no regrets.
All quackcines are poisons, there is a 200 year history of fraud, lies and decimation. Autism is just one canary amongst many hundreds.
Indeed. Ironically, a true “anti-vaxxer” (which in my definition is someone who thinks all vaccines past present and future are unhelpful) has a more defensible position than the opposite (someone who thinks everything marketed as a vaccine should be injected into everyone). There’s a logic to saying vaccines are a bad idea which there isn’t to saying vaccines are always a good idea.
A good word for the opposite of “anti-vaxxer” is “idiot” or “lunatic” – someone who indiscriminately gets themselves injected with anything called a vaccine, regardless of evidence of efficacy, safety or whether they actually need it.
“A good word for the opposite of “anti-vaxxer” is “idiot” or “lunatic” – someone who indiscriminately gets themselves injected with anything called a vaccine, regardless of evidence of efficacy, safety or whether they actually need it.”
I can’t stop laughing.
Absolutely firkin nailed it tof.
Brilliant.
Thanks – it baffles me!
So if my nunderstanding is correct, the purple line is simply an exponential projection? Then they make a comparison between that and the actual deaths at an arbitary time. Just asking as it seems a tad rubbish.
What! You don’t believe that epidemics just keep increasing exponentially until the human race goes extinct (shortly followed by all the other species susceptible to SARS-CoV-2)??
Huh! I can tell you’re not a real epidemiologist!
It’s the same way they ‘prove’ that man is affecting the climate.
Run model x, get big numbers.
Alter variable ‘man_destroys_planet’ to false
re-run model x, get small numbers.
See, proof!
I forget the exact term, attribution something or other. DS did a piece on this some time back.
Also in climate alarmism, they use the same term pointed out for Ferguson’s modelling by Claire Craig: “reasonable worst case scenario,” ie a worst case that is totally UNreasonable which is then taken as a prediction.
Any statistics that use “covid deaths” as the basis for anything are surely worthless on their face, as the term “covid death” is meaningless.
As a short term for ‘registration of death where Covid-19 was mentioned on the death certificate’ (or whatever long-winded verbiage ONS actually write) ‘Covid death’ is a useful phrase. It’s also useful because it is so loosely defined; the term encompasses every death where the certifying medic thought Covid-19 might possibly be involved – and thus it sets a hard (exaggerated) upper limit to the death rate.
Subtracting the ‘Covid deaths’ from the actual death counts shows that some countries have wildly exaggerated their counts – or somehow expected far fewer deaths than usual (Australia springs to mind). It’s useful to highlight this sort of discrepancy to emphasise how preposterous Prof Neil Ferguson’s and his team’s predictions and vaccine claims are.
From the start it has seemed to me that all-cause mortality was the only measure worth looking at because the definition of a “covid death” was arbitrary, vague and hugely variable meaning that sensible comparisons were impossible.
Probably the moment has passed for arguing this, but there was nothing exceptional going on and going over the minutiae of it all just seems like a rabbit hole to me, just like the arguments over whether lockdowns or masks “worked”.
The whole thing seems like a waste of energy to me. If we’re going to ponder whether there is a “deadly pandemic” or not every time there is a slightly worse than normal flu season, there is little hope for us (and I don’t think there is much hope for us).
All-cause mortality is key.
I mentioned Australia as an example: Based on a ten year trend for each age group they should have expected 167,811 any-cause deaths in 2020. They actually had 162,566. They had 5,244 fewer deaths than expected (-3%). +/- 3% is well within normal variation range.
However, they also claimed to have had 920 ‘Covid deaths’ in 2020 according to OWID. So apparently they had a killer disease which killed -5,000 people.
This is just one example and it highlights that the term ‘Covid death’ is flexible, to say the least. It’s still a lot quicker than describing whatever Australia means by the term.
USA erred the other way. I can’t be bothered to look up the numbers right now but they had more excess deaths than whatever they meant by ‘Covid deaths’.
Maybe Australia should make a zombie apocalypse film – you know, when someone wakes up and finds nobody on the streets except people apparently alive who shouldn’t be.
I think 2020 was the worst year for all-cause per capita mortality in the UK since the massacre that was 2008, if memory serves.
Dammit – you beat me to it. I made the same point below 2mins later.
For me it’s probably the most compelling piece of evidence. I did point it out to all the covidians I knew, but they just stuck their fingers in their ears and hummed. I wish they didn’t live on the same continent as me.
Just to complete the point: 2008 was not a bad year. It was consistent with the previous trend.
In January 2022, I distributed a flyer of so-called ‘covid deaths’ for England and Wales up to 31st December 2021, from ONS data.
These numbers really benefit from a closer look from different angles. The numbers are mind boggling!
This was a hoax from start to finish, with clear intent to cause harm.
There were changes to death registration in force for the two years of the Coronavirus Act 2020 (see https://www.nafd.org.uk/2020/03/27/coronavirus-act-changes-to-death-registration-in-england-and-wales/).
Part of these changes meant that a doctor could sign off on a ‘Covid death’ without having seen/attended the patient. I don’t suppose that doctors are routinely slapdash in diagnosing cause of death but the rules made it easy to get the paperwork done and dusted – and doctors are only human.
As for the death rates… Yes, England and Wales haven’t seen a death rate like 2020 since 2008. Terrible! Worst in 12 years!
Also, there is a lag between actual date of death and registration that can tend to confound correlation to actual causes.
At the end of the day, we don’t know much for certain. What we can say is that official data does not support official narrative. That should be good enough to stop their nonsense.
100%.
Imagine my unalloyed shock on reading, “The Imperial claim of 20 million lives saved is nonsense.” Who’da thunk it?
Not quite the same without the Lothario, Prof’ Ferguson’s name being involved. I associate him with the well known ‘swordsman, the 13th Duke of Wybourne: (Paul Whitehouse). “Me, the 13th Duke of Wybourne? Here? Alone, with my best friend’s wife? At three o’clock in the morning? With my reputation? While he’s downstairs? What does he think I’m going to do sing her a lullaby or something? Mmmm.”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/dec/15/pollutionwatch-health-cost-of-burning-wood-to-warm-homes:
I know it’s from the Groan but still. This short article is packed with all the usuals headed of course by Imperial College, models and their modellers, estimates, research says, studies suggest, a ‘wildfire scientist’ (?) and a new one – ‘citizen scientists.’
Citizen scientists eh? Orwell speak for whingers.
It’s worth the read for the jokes.
I wonder how many people would have cared about breathing a bit of smoke compared to dying of the cold for the lack of heating?
https://www.conservativewoman.co.uk/dr-david-martin-and-the-origins-of-the-coronavirus-plot/
WOW!
The Scamdemic commenced in 1966.
This short article but with important embedded links is an absolute eye-opener.
Courtesy the venerable Andrew Bridgen.
An excellent article Nick.
I do enjoy the crap when it is uncovered.
Another young, fit athlete had a heart attack. I didn’t realise this guy was also stretchered off the pitch after a collapse in May this year. Talk about lightening striking twice;
”LUTON’S Premier League clash with Bournemouth was abandoned this afternoon after Tom Lockyer suffered a heart attack and collapsed on the pitch.
The match was stopped in the 59th minute as medics tended to Lockyer, who collapsed off the ball.
Luton have since confirmed that Lockyer suffered a heart attack – but he is now stable.
The club said: “Our medical staff have confirmed that the Hatters captain suffered cardiac arrest on the pitch, but was responsive by the time he was taken off on the stretcher.
“He received further treatment inside the stadium, for which we once again thank the medical teams from both sides. Tom was transferred to hospital, where we can reassure supporters that he is stable and currently undergoing further tests with his family at his bedside.”
https://www.thesun.co.uk/sport/25076575/bournemouth-luton-suspended-tom-lockyer-collapses/
Poor lad.
I hope you read about this Bozo you absolute complete and utter Next Tuesday.
Apparently (according to the Mail) his previous diagnosis was atrial fibrillation, an arhythmia which I cannot remember seeing in a 29 year old during my entire medical career. Usually it’s a degenerative condition in middle-old age. He seems to have been passed OK after a surgical ablation.
But whilst AF may be associated with cardiac failure and embolic phenomena, it’s not commonly a cause of acute cardiac arrest. And I don’t believe it’s a common result of the least rare “young arrest” problem, genetic cardiomyopathy.
The story suggests therefore a more diffuse kind of acquired cardiac damage affecting both atrial and ventricular conduction. Surprisingly common since 2021 only.
Thank goodness. Apparently all Luton players were vaccinated club policy I believe. Was Tom there in 2021 or whenever that happened? In which case…..
You’re apparently wrong, EPI:
‘Luton Town fans are behind the club’s decision not to force their players to have the Covid-19 vaccine despite the country finding itself in Plan B restrictions over the festive period.
Hatters chief Nathan Jones admitted yesterday that although some of his squad are double jabbed, they wouldn’t be made to get vaccinated by anyone at the club, insisting it was the ‘individual’s choice’. He said: “That’s a private matter and it’s about the individual, not just about what we would like as a club.‘
https://www.lutontoday.co.uk/sport/football/luton-town/hatters-fans-agree-with-clubs-stance-not-to-force-towns-players-to-have-covid-19-vaccination-3491025
Better being called an “anti-vaxer” that what we should call the MSM and their tame, malevolent “experts”
Anti-truthers.