What a difference a year makes at the Met Office. In just 13 months, the 15-year temperature warming trend in the U.K. has doubled to a helpful 0.2°C. In the process it changes an inconvenient flat-lining trend, with warming of around 0.1°C, to the more Net Zero-friendly hike of nearly 0.2°C. No doubt the Met Office has a simple explanation for this sensational statistical discovery. But as we have seen in past articles, these uplifts are common at the Met Office in both the national and global record.
First we can see the U.K. trend as published in a Daily Sceptic article early last year. Note the developing plateau over the last 15 years.
Just 13 months later, any pause has disappeared to be replaced with a considerable rise. Suddenly a near plateau over 15 years has been turned into a substantial long-term trend increase.
Last year was hot, but only 0.15°C warmer than 2014 which is shown on the two graphs above, and 2014 did not prevent the near-plateau forming. Statistically, a trendline for an uptrend would usually be based on low points rather than high points, to avoid potentially anomalous highs like 2022 radically altering the trend. The Met Office might be using some smoothing effect to produce the sudden jump in the trendline – it’s hard to tell as the forecaster doesn’t explain how it calculates its trendline anywhere that I could find. But even so, one year’s temperature should not radically alter the whole trend for the past 15 years, as has happened here.
Another explanation might lie in the recent adjustments made by the Met Office to the Central England Temperature, the oldest continuous surface temperature collection dating back to around 1660. The diligent climate journalist Paul Homewood discovered that for most of the record up to 1970, the adjustments were small and have no obvious pattern. There are then notable downward adjustments from 1970 to 2003, and from that date the temperatures have been adjusted markedly upwards.
Last Sunday, Richard Tice discussed the frequent Met Office record tampering with Andrew Montford from Net Zero Watch on his Sunday Talk TV show. Tice has taken a keen interest in the subject, and the issue is starting to attract public concern. As we have noted in past articles, the Met Office is being questioned on a number of fronts. Last year it claimed a U.K. heat record of 40.3°C half way down the runway at RAF Coningsby. A subsequent Freedom of Information request by the Daily Sceptic identified at least three Typhoon fighter jets using the runway at or around the time of the 60-second record. Many of the Met Office’s recording devices are sited at British airports, with records often declared at Heathrow and RAF Northolt. As we have noted, airports are one of the least suitable sites imaginable for collecting long-term information about climate temperature trends.
Another recent FOI request from Paul Homewood made the shocking discovery that the Met Office will use data and declare records from sites labelled class 4 by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO). This class comes with an error estimate of up to 2°C from the WMO, although the Met Office calls it an “acceptable” rating. It is of course completely unacceptable. It is next to the lowest rating class 5 which comes with a 5°C error estimate. Homewood declared himself “lost for words” that the Met Office was happy to use a class 4 site, “even though that class is next to junk status”.
All of these non-climatic corruptions along with adjustments, mostly up for recent data and down for historical figures, are fed into a dataset that tries to estimate a global temperature. Again, as we have seen in past articles, removing inconvenient temperature pauses on a retrospective basis is a common occurrence. Over the last 10 years, the Met Office has added around 30% of extra heating from around 2000 in its HadCRUT global record. The move from version 3 to HadCRUT4 in 2013 added about 15% with a similar 2020 rise pumped into version 5. These were significant increases, and they wiped out the pause from around 2000-2012, a hiatus the Met Office wrote about in a 2013 paper titled ‘The recent pause in global warming‘.
The graph above tracks the final demise of the pause from HadCRUT4 to HadCRUT5. The pause is still slightly evident in the earlier version, but finding an additional 0.1°C of heat finally airbrushed it from the official record. Along with the earlier addition of 0.1°C, it took 0.2°C of warming to finally kick it into touch. This significant warming, most welcomed of course in political Net Zero circles as fuel for their narrative, was also enhanced by the cooling of about 0.1°C applied before 1974. Of course, fans of the pause can still view it in the accurate satellite record, along with the current pause of almost nine years.
Announcing the fifth revision, the Met Office said HadCRUT5 was now “in line” with other datasets. True, they are all at it with huge retrospective adjustments made at NASA and the U.S. weather service. All eyes are now on the expected El Niño natural oscillation which it is hoped will bring a little climatic heat into the record, perhaps alleviating any need to keep cancelling the chilly temperatures and pesky pauses of the recent past.
Chris Morrison is the Daily Sceptic’s Environment Editor.
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Apostles of Sars-CoV2 and prophets of climate change are virtually identical groups. They fabricated a pandemic by cherry-picking and falsfications (eg, death within 28 days of a positive Sars-CoV2 test => COVID death). They’re obviously also fabricating their very own climate change in the same way. This is to be expected when people with political agendas are in charge of manageing the real-world data these political agendas rely on.
Oddly, they share other prejudices: as well as being utterly terrified of CO2 and a bit of warmth, a Covid/mask/vaccine zealot is likely also to be a Trump-hating, Brexit-loathing, LGBTQ+-supporting, BLM-sympathising, Just-Stop-Oil apologist. Add further brain-dead leftist causes to this list at your convenience.
Literally cooking the books to keep the alarmist scam going.
Cheats and liars.
Lies, damned lies and Met Office statistics
With the accleration of the klimat-tards data fraud and their designs to rewrite real temperature history, it won’t be long before the ‘cooling age’ of 1945-75 [when we were warned about the impending ‘ice age’] is completely erased, and the medieval little ice age and warming era’s destroyed and rendered void. $cience.
Ah the famous hockey-stick already erased the little ice age. The pictures of fairs on the Thames were just 18th century climate-denier disinformation. Thank goodness we now have constantly refining models to constantly rewrite the past.
and the MWP. As in “we need to disappear the MWP” (Climategate emails). Never mind “hide the decline”…
The article links to an article by Paul Homewood about the weather station at Porthmadog. By coincidence, I played golf at Porthmadog golf club recently and was surprised to see the weather station by the 3rd tee. I took several photos. Paul Homewood’s article shows the site as being quite sheltered – but the photo must be a few years old as the bushes are now at least 2-3 times as high and form a thick screen. To use readings from this site to claim record Welsh temperatures is fraudulent.
Paul’s blog at notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com should be bookmarked. He’s been on the heels of the BBC and the Met Office for years, bless him
notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com
“Last year was hot, but only 0.15°C warmer than 2014…”
Prove it. There is no network of scientific temperature measuring instruments, calibrated to a single reference instrument covering the globe.
It impossible to know what global temperatures are or make comparisons. These ‘temperatures’ aren’t even temperatures, they are just made-up numbers.
Let’s be clear. The ‘temperature record’ – above graphs, is something called The Global Mean Temperature Anomaly. This is manufactured by feeding whole number average temperatures collected from inaccurate instruments from a handful of reporting stations around the World – most in Europe and North America – and nearly all in cities, towns and airports (in other words places of increased temperature due to Human activity and the architecture), which are fed into a mincing machine of formulae, algorithms, guesstimates, models, to produce exquisite, tiny fractions purporting to shown warming.
These are not in fact temperatures they are just numbers produced when subtracting the output from an arbitrarily selected baseline.
I cannot get my head around the concept of a global mean temperature. Wouldn’t you need to cover the entire planet in measuring instruments monitoring temperature 24*7?
The concept is nonsense. I’ve written that a couple of times in the past already.
Oceans make up 80% of the southern hemisphere and 53% of the northern. There are no consistently sited temperature recording stations in the oceans and very few anyway in developing nations around the world. “Global ” temperatures are a manifestation of the developed northern nations entirely for their political purposes.
Of course the concept of a global average temperature is nonsensical, but as long as it is measured in an historically consistent way then changes over time can and do tell us something. The best temperature series imho is the UAH satellite temperature record.
https://off-guardian.org/2023/07/11/no-bill-gates-didnt-fund-gm-mosquitoes-to-stop-malaria-its-far-worse-than-that/
A sincere and in-depth look at the killing industry that is “vaccines.” The conclusion – we definitely don’t need them.
Odd place to post this! Fascinating and grim article, but why here? Am I missing something?
Another ‘hockey stick’ in the making then to compliment the lying POS Michael Mann‘s invention. Models and data eh.. the criminals best friend.
The ‘long march through the institutions’ obviously stopped for tea and showers at the MET Office..
Oh.. and the Union Jack’s upside down.. a sign of things to come ???
The UK temperature record is very unimportant when looking at global warming but the idea that the Met Office have made some major changes to get rid of the pause is blatant rubbish. I am sure others must have noticed that the two Met Office charts are identical except for the addition of last year’s temperature and the final few years of the smoothing curve. The only adjustment the Met Office made was to update the chart for last year – which you may recall was very hot – and the smoothing curve changed automatically as a result.
Contrary to what Chris writes – there was a small upward trend even before last year’s figure was added (just look closely at the chart) and it is quite possible for a single figure to make a big difference to the trend over the last 10 years or so.
Between January 2022 and start of December 2022, there were exactly 5 weeks of no rain (last week of July to end of August) and three warm days in August, one of them could be regarded as hot. All of the remaning time, it was raining, raining and raining.
Better lie about the more distant past. The exceptionally hot summer was in 2018 and since then, we’ve only had hot-headed talking about hot summers.
Well there is contradictory data but as it is from the Met Office presumably you will simply say it is false. As it is the only available data that leaves us with no basis for discussion. However, my point was not to justify the datum for 2022. It is simply to point out that the only change the Met Office made was to add the data for 2022.
I do not recall last year being hot
I remember the summer of 1976 being hot because I was of an impressionable age and got sunburned and because people talk about it a lot
I remember the spring/summer of 2020 being warm, dry and sunny because of lockdown I was outdoors a lot
Every other year of my 60odd year life I have no recollection of the weather and for all I know 1976 and 2020 might have had very cold winters
I am sorry about your memory problems but it is common among people of our age.
So you ignore the trend line?
Perhaps you should have gone to Specsavers?
How much does MET (or perhaps Dale Vince) pay for your “contributions”?
I don’t understand what you mean by ignoring the trend line? I was arguing that the trend line is justified.
(If only someone was paying me!)
Lol. I doubt many people of any age could tell you with any accuracy whether one year was warmer than another.
Summer can be hot, even in the UK. So it’s got warmer? Big deal. Some times it gets cooler. Witness the LIA (which was hell, especially for Norther Europe, where millions died of famine and related diseases)
Long term, the planet is cooling and following the pattern of previous interstadials, being
Nor is there any real evidence that CO2 controls temperature, long or short term. Quite the opposite in fact
And if it does, its effect is almost completely played out
Which leaves only ECS (climate sensitivity – feedback) as the culprit. Unproven, and estimates of this get lower and lower as time progresses.
Don’t be a sucker.
Have a trend line. From Met Office data. If this presages the heat death of the planet, I’m a donkey’s back hole.
A slight rise in temperature since the LIA ended in 1850.
What, ladies and gentlemen, would YOU expect on leaving an Ice Age (even a little one – this was still a disaster all over the world, and in Northern Europe caused massive population die off from famine and related diseases.
Heat is good – Civilisation thrives when warm, withers when cold. And FAR more die from cold than heat.
Excellent posts Jeremy.. thank you..
Variations of this chart has been going the rounds for decades. You will notice that the most recent years are dotted – that’s because the ice core only goes up to 1855. Even the dotted years only go up to 1950 before recent warming started. For more detail go to: https://www.carbonbrief.org/factcheck-what-greenland-ice-cores-say-about-past-and-present-climate-change/
You’re so right. Anthropogenic warming cultists would never alter the data. Why would they? The evidence is just so compelling. Indeed 95% of ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶s̶a̶i̶n̶t̶l̶y̶ ̶a̶n̶d̶ ̶w̶e̶l̶l̶ ̶p̶a̶i̶d̶ ̶p̶e̶o̶p̶l̶e̶ ̶w̶h̶o̶s̶e̶ ̶j̶o̶b̶s̶ ̶r̶e̶l̶y̶ ̶o̶n̶ ̶s̶p̶o̶u̶t̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶a̶l̶a̶r̶m̶i̶s̶t̶ ̶b̶o̶l̶l̶o̶x̶ ̶a̶b̶o̶u̶t̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶e̶f̶f̶e̶c̶t̶s̶ ̶o̶f̶ ̶m̶a̶n̶’̶s̶ ̶C̶O̶2̶ ̶e̶m̶i̶s̶s̶i̶o̶n̶s̶ climate scientists would agree. The fact that adjusments have been made to the data for at least the past 15 years is misinformation and should be ignored /sarc.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/07/09/noaancei-temperature-anomaly-adjustments-since-2010-pray-they-dont-alter-it-any-further/
There isn’t room to argue the general case here. However, clearly the Met Office did not alter the UK annual average temperature data between last year and this. The two charts data points are identical except for the addition of 2022 data.
You are quite right in that the change is all down to the addition of the 2022 data point. All earlier data points are unchanged.
It appears that the Met Office are using a 10-year trailing moving average calculation for the trend line, so, given the sizeable jump from 2021’s to 2022’s values, it isn’t surprising that the trend values for all of the previous 9 years will have increased accordingly.
None of which means very much really, If 2023’s value were to drop back to, say, that of 2015, then the 10-year trend will flatten out again. It’s what the moving average does!
And of course, none of these temperature measures have any credibility anyway, given the established problem with the location of measuring stations – and 2022 was only ‘very hot’ for 2 days as I recall.
None of which means very much really, If 2023’s value were to drop back to, say, that of 2015, then the 10-year trend will flatten out again. It’s what the moving average does!
Well it means the Met Office have not been playing tricks with the trend line as the article suggests.
10 years is not sufficient to reveal a robust trend given the variation from year to year – you have to look longer and sceptics should stop talking about a recent pause.
And of course, none of these temperature measures have any credibility anyway, given the established problem with the location of measuring stations
I don’t accept it is an established problem.but that’s a whole different debate.
– and 2022 was only ‘very hot’ for 2 days as I recall.
It was the highest average temperature on record as you can see from the chart.
CRT is the longest temperature in the world. Some 350 years. Yet even that stretch of time is some 3% of the Holocene, an amount that is statistically in significant.
Sorry Met Office. Now do what we pay you for
In what way is the duration of the record relevant to its statistical significance?
I’m not going to waste my time on that.
Good idea – you might find it quite challenging
Challenging indeed.. for you that is. You’ll be telling us next that Global Warming then Climate Change, then a Climate Emergency is not at all political.
When you see that exactly the same people who pushed the covid hoax and the toxic injections, are also pushing the climate emergency don’t you ever stop to think that maybe something’s amiss?
Of course .. If you believe in both you are either incredibly naive/gullible or you’re shilling on this site. After reading many of your posts I’m going to plump for the latter description..
Challenging indeed.. for you that is.
Sorry – what is it challenge in my case? The challenge for Jeremy99 is to explain why it is relevant to the statistical significance of last year’s tempeature that the CRT is only 3% of the holocene. This seems to be a challenge he is reluctant to undertake.
You’ll be telling us next that Global Warming then Climate Change, then a Climate Emergency is not at all political.
Clearly there is a political element as the science suggests actions which affect society.
When you see that exactly the same people who pushed the covid hoax and the toxic injections, are also pushing the climate emergency don’t you ever stop to think that maybe something’s amiss?
I don’t see the IPCC writing anything about Covid and vaccines nor do I see the MHRA writing about climate change. Do you?
Of course .. If you believe in both you are either incredibly naive/gullible or you’re shilling on this site. After reading many of your posts I’m going to plump for the latter description..
Obviously I have beliefs that conflict with most readers on this forum but they are more complicated than just “climate change is real”, “Covid was a real problem”, “vaccines are effective and safe”. To see it as a simply battle between two sides strikes me as truly naive.
I never know what “shill” means – do explain.
Well, I can say, with confidence, that this summer is, so far, mostly poor to average. The weather is generally benign, but not particularly warm here in the West country, and very wet at the mo . However, I cannot believe that I keep reading that we “are due a hot spell”, or a “continental weather plume” is imminent. Even last week the met office was drumming up anticipation (fear?) that the coming weekend was going to be “dangerously hot”. It topped out at 26 degrees here, which to me is just pleasant! I get the feeling that if they manage to put out enough press releases, they can then turn round at a future date and say “Yes, it was hot, look at the amount of times we mentioned it and warned people”, regardless of the actual temperature. Its just spin spin all the way.
Worldwide, weather stations are a shambles…
https://researchonline.jcu.edu.au/52041/1/52041-mclean-2017-thesis.pdf
Audit of Hadcrut 4 issues.
The Met Office is obviously competing with the BBC for the Annual Award for Statistical Manipulation and Climate Lies.
Truly dumb showing BBC style graphs of rising temperatures that only reinforce people’s brainwashed bias – the graphs should be much longer term and not just show the top few degrees, which grossly exaggerates the reality. Also, keep stressing latest weather stations are cherry picked for their higher readings.
The graphs all have a magnified y axis which, in a gently warming world (for now) exaggerates any trend artificially.