A few weeks ago, I wrote about China’s changing stance on Russia and Ukraine. I may have been alone in my scepticism about the widely-reported U.S. claims that China was seriously considering selling weapons to Russia, but I pointed to recent public statements by China – as well as reports from my own sources regarding the drone manufacturer DJI – which suggested that China had in fact decided to take a friendlier position toward Ukraine. Then, last Wednesday, we had proof of that.
It’s already been reported that Xi Jinping and President Zelenskyy had a “long and meaningful phone call” on that day with Zelenskyy appointing an ambassador to China, and Xi offering to send a representative to Kyiv to help broker a political settlement with Russia. However, what went largely unnoticed is that later that same day, China voted “yes” to a UN General Assembly resolution containing the following language – in which Russia is starkly labelled the aggressor, to be held accountable for its crimes in Ukraine (and Georgia):
[T]he unprecedented challenges now facing Europe following the aggression by the Russian Federation against Ukraine, and against Georgia prior to that, and the cessation of the membership of the Russian Federation in the Council of Europe, call for strengthened cooperation between the United Nations and the Council of Europe, notably in order to promptly restore and maintain peace and security based on respect of the sovereignty, territorial integrity and political independence of any State, ensure the observance of human rights and international humanitarian law during the hostilities, provide redress to victims and bring to justice all those responsible for the violations of international law…
This was not some sort of accidental or irrelevant statement by China. The voting record clearly reflects Russia’s strong opposition, with Russia’s gremial friends – Belarus, Nicaragua, North Korea and Syria – being pulled in to vote against it, and the other usual suspects abstaining (with the notable exception of India, which also voted “yes”). Russia will have reached out to China, but their diplomatic efforts – which included the ludicrous spectacle of Sergei Lavrov chairing the UN Security Council – clearly had no effect.
Readers may recall that some weeks ago, Xi said he would call Zelenskyy when the “conditions and time are right”. I’d say that was impeccable timing, and a powerful message to Russia.
What does this mean for Ukraine? Apart from the obvious benefit of China not shipping weapons to Russia, it also seems to indicate that China is serious about trying to be a peacemaker. China’s recent brokerage of a rapprochement between Saudia Arabia and Iran was widely interpreted as a very significant moment for China in world affairs, which might invite speculation that China is simply trying to look big and strong once again. However, a less emotive analysis would be that China has concluded that Russia’s war has brought no benefits and many problems to China: it hasn’t fractured the West, it’s drawn greater attention to China’s irredentist claims to Taiwan, and it’s damaged trade.
China’s public position increasingly reflects that view. In my previous article, I drew attention to China’s significant new focus on the importance of “sovereignty”, and in China’s readout of Xi’s call with Zelenskyy, this was highlighted and reinforced:
Mutual respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity is the political foundation of China-Ukraine relations. [Emphasis mine.]
The phrase “territorial integrity” in this context reads, to me, like a repudiation of China’s earlier position, which respected Russia’s “legitimate security interests” (i.e., the full-scale invasion) above matters of sovereignty. It’s a phrase that also appears in the UN resolution. And following the call, Chinese state TV broadcast the details, with its emphasis on the need for peace, and a respect for territorial integrity – in stark contrast to the Russian war propaganda that was broadcast in China after the start of the full-scale invasion last February.
Is it too optimistic to conclude that China now hopes the war can be brought to an end by a swift restoration of Ukraine’s territorial integrity? I don’t think so, since that would be in China’s interests. If we see sizeable gains by Ukraine in its imminent counter-offensive, then China’s increasingly powerful economic position with respect to an embattled Russia might enable it to bring Putin (or whomever remains) to the negotiating table, with the promise of helping to bring an end to Western sanctions – something that China also wants. The withdrawal of any remaining Russian troops in return for dropping Western sanctions would be a deal that this pro-Ukraine hawk would be willing to support. China could then bask in the glory of being the peacemaker once again, free to continue with its plans for world domination by 2049 – which, of course, I oppose.
Stop Press: News of China’s vote at the UN is causing waves on Russian social media. The ultra-nationalist “black colonel” Viktor Alksnis has published a widely-read post (shared by the likes of Igor Girkin) directly attacking Putin for Russia’s near-total isolation: “Never before has Russia found itself in such international isolation. Neither under the kings, nor under the general secretaries. And the President of the Russian Federation V. Putin bears personal responsibility for this […] And I am very afraid of the consequences of this catastrophe, when these millions of people fooled by propaganda will finally realise that they were simply deceived, and that in fact Russia is in an extremely humiliated and helpless state; when it dawns on them that she has no allies and no friends, and that no one will lend her a helping hand and support in this difficult situation.” [Auto-translation.]
Stop Press 2: The day following the publication of this article, Secretary of State Antony Blinken indicated the U.S. is seriously considering working with China as a potential mediator, in the event that battlefield gains this year were to put Ukraine in a good negotiating position. This is of course predicated on the acceptance of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine. There followed a flurry of other reporting on the matter, and on May 7th Henry Kissinger weighed in with similar views.
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2004 and 2014 US led coups. The Maiden massacre by Ukes and the CIA. 15000 Russians slaughtered in Donbas post Maiden. Bio labs, money laundering. NATO, EU takeover of a former Russian state oblast which was never a country. And yet Russia is the bad actor. The US empire as evinced by Rona, fake science and endless wars is the locus of evil.
You sound a bit like a Marxist Revolutionary.
74 down ticks even with the last sentence being true
The quantity of down tickers only means that a group of people don’t like Ferd’s conclusions, not that they are wrong.
Assuming the US and it’s allies, which includes the UK, are the only bad actors in the world is naive. What can be done in the name of national security is just about anything. These clandestine agencies operate above any laws or morality.
https://off-guardian.org/2023/11/04/the-great-reset-part-2-a-camp-with-no-outside/
The second part of Simon Elmer’s look at their Great Reset and this looks at Digital Identity and the horrors this entails.
“At present, the UK Government is promoting Digital Identity in terms of ease of access, greater convenience and increased safety. So, under the Online Safety Act 2023, Digital Identity will be a requirement of access to the internet, not in order to censor what we can see, read and write but to protect children from pornography and grooming gangs.
Under the Elections Act 2022, it will be a requirement of voting, not in order to further discourage public participation in the electoral process but to stop illegal voting. It will be a requirement of receiving Universal Credit or, in the future, Universal Basic Income, not in order to force the immiserated and unemployed into obligatory retraining and work but to stop fraudulent benefit claims. It will be a requirement of gaining access to public transport, medical care, education and employment, not in order to control us whenever the World Health Organization declares a new pandemic but to protect the population from future health crises. It will be a requirement of travel and movement between nation states and within the UK, not in order to enforce the restrictions on our freedoms imposed by Agenda 2030 but to stop illegal immigration into the UK and save the planet from ‘global boiling’. It will be a requirement of opening a bank account, not to force us into opening a Digital Pound account but to stop financial crime.”
This is actually a first rate article and more like the Simon Elmer I have learnt to appreciate.
Toby, you’ve really got to keep Noah away from Ukraine issues.
DS credibility is at stake.
It’s like being back in London Calling, but with only James’s rantings presented.
Has it really taken you nearly 2 years to make that comment?
It wasn’t worth the wait.
Noah is making a rod for his own back here, because he hasn’t examined Katchanovski’s claims objectively (by having translations of videos, etc. done, as I have). Here’s a brief excerpt from an article I’ve been working on, which shows Katchanovski’s contempt for the facts. However, we know there was one gunman in the Hotel Ukraine on the February 20th 2014, he was seen shooting probably towards government units on rooftops towards the presidential buildings to the north west. It’s almost like Noah is being a cipher for Katchanovski by saying the idea of anyone with a gun in the Hotel Ukraine is a “conspiracy theory”.
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[His] next supposed witness is in the clip beginning at 2m49s. Katchanovski’s caption reads as follows:
To be clear, the Hotel Ukraine was never controlled by the Maidan protesters, as far as I have been able to establish from contemporaneous accounts and videos. It was used as a hotel, occupied by foreign journalists (BBC, RT, etc.) and others during this time. First aid was given to protesters in the lobby on February 20th, but Katchanovski has never established anything more. However, what Katchanovski fails to mention about this witness is that he states that he saw three individuals in uniform run into the hotel on February 17–18th and then down the stairs with cases resembling weapons cases. This is from a show broadcast by the popular Ukrainian channel TSN which, from what I can tell, presents the mainstream view that it was only government forces who were sniping protesters, and it’s clear from the video that these “snipers” were police or other government officers.
It is probably a waste of time dissecting those events yet again.
Ukraine is doomed and it is only a matter of time before the West formally casts them adrift.
America is already building a blame narrative that absolves Biden from any culpability and fingers Zelensky, Zelensky is already blaming his generals for the failures and Aristovich is positioning himself to replace Zelensky.
I think a stock of popcorn is in order.