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Excess Deaths Return After Five-Week Hiatus – But They Only Disappeared Due to ONS Trickery

by Will Jones
17 March 2023 7:00 AM

Excess deaths were back this week, according to the ONS, with 855 (7.6%) registered above the five-year average in the week ending March 3rd. Of these, 349 were due to COVID-19 as underlying cause, leaving 506 from other underlying causes.

Excess deaths have been close to zero for the past five weeks, according to the ONS, suggesting to some that the trend of many more people than usual dying had come to an end. However, a closer look reveals this to be a mirage created by the ONS changing its baseline to include the large Alpha wave that occurred in early 2021. (To be fair to the ONS, it does note this change in the chart above.)

Below I have recreated the above graph but used the 2015-19 pre-pandemic baseline throughout. This could be criticised for not allowing for an ageing population. However, the last three years have been heavily affected by excess mortality due to the pandemic and the responses to it, which will have a much larger impact on the figures than a slight ageing effect, so the use of the consistent pre-pandemic baseline is warranted. Note that the Covid deaths (orange) include those with Covid as a secondary cause. In the Omicron era (i.e., since the start of 2022), 30-40% of these ‘Covid’ deaths are registered with a different underlying cause.

The difference in the last two winters when using this pre-pandemic baseline is stark. In the winter just gone, rather than near-zero excess for several weeks, there were high levels of excess throughout.

Here is what excess mortality (as a percentage) looks like using the 2015-19 baseline.

Comparing the totals, since week 16 of 2022 (i.e., April 18th), when the latest excess deaths surge began (the surge really started during 2021, but was masked during the winter due to the mildness of Omicron and the absence of flu), according to the ONS there have been 49,736 excess deaths, whereas using the pre-pandemic baseline there have been 62,543 excess deaths, 25.7% more. During 2023 to date the difference is 6,876 using ONS baseline versus 13,244 using pre-pandemic baseline, nearly twice as many (92.6% more).

What lies behind this very worrying trend has still not been properly investigated, and the Government recently confirmed that it has no plans to do so.

On a final note, Sweden has been in the news again recently as it had among the lowest excess mortality during the pandemic despite rejecting lockdowns in 2020.

Without wanting to take away from the important lessons here for lockdown, it is important to note that Sweden has been experiencing considerable excess deaths recently and is not exempt from whatever is causing this global phenomenon (whether vaccines, virus, missed treatment or whatever it is). In particular, over the current winter it hit 31.5% excess mortality in December (according to Our World in Data), higher than the U.K.

Whatever is causing the worldwide excess deaths since mid-2021, it is happening in Sweden no less than elsewhere.

Tags: COVID-19Excess deathsExcess MortalityNon-CovidONSSweden

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39 Comments
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Grahamb
Grahamb
2 years ago

What evidence will it take for something negative to be linked to problems with the jabs? Adverse events, higher “cases” and excess deaths all massively up and no link made.
What is there that could make an association?

94
0
MTF
MTF
2 years ago
Reply to  Grahamb

I think a higher age standardised mortality rate among the vaccinated would be start. As it happens it is more or less the same – slightly higher for the unvaccinated. https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/deathsbyvaccinationstatusengland

3
-30
transmissionofflame
transmissionofflame
2 years ago
Reply to  MTF

How do they define “vaccinated” and “unvaccinated” and from where are they getting a count of the “unvaccinated”?

52
0
Nearhorburian
Nearhorburian
2 years ago
Reply to  transmissionofflame

Are unjabbed people with covid (or, in fact, anything) receiving the same treatment in hospital as the jabbed or are they being murdered by an NHS that showed itself perfectly willing to bump-off tens of thousands in spring 2020 to get the numbers up in order to maximise jab take-up?

(One of the clear purposes of the lockdowns was to reduce the quality of life so much for people not terrified of the disease that they’d be willing to be jabbed in order to “get back to normal”. Add the gullible who trust the government, the NHS, their GP and the BBC and you’ve got a very high take-up in the high-trust, high honesty, census-completing indigenous population .)

Last edited 2 years ago by Nearhorburian
36
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FerdIII
FerdIII
2 years ago

Post every single stab program the deaths spiked.
The Tards say ‘correlation not causation’ unless you had a fake test and died within 3 years of it then suddenly the cause is Rona.
The carnage from these fascists and their policies includes: 30.000 older people (DNR) murdered during March-May 2020 from midazolam and morphine; 30-40.000? from lockdowns?, 60.000 to 100.000 from the stabbinations with more to come? For the record fewer than 20.000 died from the dreaded Rona over 2 years. Same as the yearly flu deaths.

ONS etc can play all the games they want with the data. Truth will come out.

139
-1
nige.oldfart
nige.oldfart
2 years ago

Interesting reading. As Will Jones has indicated you change the number presentation you can change the interpretation, that stats for you. As an aside, my wife recently had a telephone pre-op (NHS) and was told not to have a covid jab at least six weeks prior to the proposed op. Now why should that be?

79
0
GrouchoMarques
GrouchoMarques
2 years ago
Reply to  nige.oldfart

Also, Andrew Bridgen asked the Health Minister this week if she would confirm that 2/3 of NHS staff had refused the Autumn 2022 campaign booster. Perhaps they are too busy taking corpses to the morgue. Turkeys don’t vote for Christmas

13
0
RTSC
RTSC
2 years ago

The Government will never investigate the cause/causes of this carnage: they have just bribed Moderna to set up a production facility in the UK and are authorising the MHRA to fast-track UK authorisation for new, poorly tested, experimental jabs based on other authorising bodies’ recommendations (presumably GAVI and the WHO).

They daren’t even hint that they know the jabs are implicated, let alone the primary cause, of the excess deaths.

70
0
MTF
MTF
2 years ago

Why ONS trickery? 

They are consistently following the same method of measuring excess deaths i.e. a baseline of the average of the preceding 5 years and they draw attention to the fact that this might be deceptive at this time. What more could you ask for?

Last edited 2 years ago by MTF
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GrouchoMarques
GrouchoMarques
2 years ago
Reply to  MTF

Listen to the Andrew Bridgen speech in parliament this week for full, robust explanation

3
0
Occams Pangolin Pie
Occams Pangolin Pie
2 years ago

I really don’t understand stats, I barely understand maths.

However, ONS and its global equivalents do seem to be doing a pretty awful job.

Consider this highly complex experiment. Monsanto, say, produce a new veterinarian product for rats called ‘Bright Eyed & Bushy Tailed’. It naturally gets enabled and approved by June’s animal equivalent. A year later quite a lot of rats are peaky, apparently, and some are dead. Could be a number of things. Looks like a job for the ONS.

The Office of National Statistics puts its ‘Bring Your Child To Work Day’ apprentice on to this problem. Firstly, the eager young nipper not unnaturally wishes to exclude the possibility that this wonderful jollop could be responsible for rat suffering. It’s not going to be easy. A bag of 100 rats that were induced to take a shot or more of ‘Bright Eyed & Bushy Tailed’ is brought to the ONS offices. There’s also a bag of 100 rats that did not take this much vaunted elixir.

It’s lucky it was ‘Bring Your Child To Work Day’ and a young Derek begins checking all the rats, using his slide rule to maintain order. He seems to be on top of the method. He’s a bright lad. Open bag number one and count the rats with bright eyes and bushy tails, also check to see if they are all alive or sick. Open bag number two and do the same: are any dead, peaky, bushy or bright? Make a little list.

The most important column is the deaths one. Tot up the number of dead in bag one, and the number of dead in bag two. Easy! Time for elevenses.

Am I missing some significant difficulty that would enable dedicated and professional statisticians from taking this rather complicated method and applying it to the jabbed and unjabbed? Just as a comparison?

Can ‘Bright Eyed & Bushy Tailed’ be excluded as a cause of excess rat deaths and general peakiness. Can Monsanto sigh with relief and continue to stock Pets R Us without further doubts, bringing pleasure to thousands of pet owners and vivisectionists?

19
0
Chris P
Chris P
2 years ago
Reply to  Occams Pangolin Pie

You are assuming both bags contain all the rats. However, the bag of unmedicated rats is missing many that are running around outside. As a result the percentage of dead rates in the unmedicated bag is going to be too high.

14
0
Tyrbiter
Tyrbiter
2 years ago
Reply to  Occams Pangolin Pie

There is also the likelihood that the bag of rats that didn’t have BEABT also contains rats that became ill or died within 2 weeks of actually being given it, this being how rapid vax injuries were dismissed as not due to being vaxxed by claiming that the vax took time to kill^Wwork.

15
0
MTF
MTF
2 years ago
Reply to  Occams Pangolin Pie

Am I missing some significant difficulty that would enable dedicated and professional statisticians from taking this rather complicated method and applying it to the jabbed and unjabbed?

Yes I am afraid you are. You don’t say how the rats are selected but if the test is to prove anything then they ought to be selected at random. You can do this for people. A bunch of people volunteer and at random half of them get the jab and the other half get a placebo. Then you follow them for a year or two to see if the death rates are noticeably different. That’s an RCT. It is a valid thing to do but it is not the business of the ONS. The best the ONS can do is an observational study, looking at people have been vaccinated or not and seeing what happened to them. They trouble about that is that the type of people that get vaccinated are different from the type of the people that don’t. So for example unvaccinated people may well be younger and fitter than vaccinated people. The ONS have done this and allowed for differences in age (hence age standardised mortality rate)- this showed no significant difference in death rates. But there may other confounding factors they are not aware of.

8
-4
transmissionofflame
transmissionofflame
2 years ago
Reply to  MTF

Has anyone done such an RCT?

3
0
MTF
MTF
2 years ago
Reply to  transmissionofflame

That would be part of the original vaccine trials – only after a time the Pfizer vaccine was proving to be effective so they decided it was not ethical for the participants not to know whether they got the vaccine or the placebo.(This may be true of some or all of the other vaccines). They removed the blinding and very likely many people who got the placebo elected to get vaccinated. This meant that as an RCT it was a limited timescale (I can’t remember how long).

0
-6
transmissionofflame
transmissionofflame
2 years ago
Reply to  MTF

“This meant that as an RCT it was a limited timescale” Therefore no use for assessing whether “vaccination” might lead to increased all cause mortality.

8
0
MTF
MTF
2 years ago
Reply to  transmissionofflame

Absolutely. The sad truth is that an RCT that looks at long term effects (over many years) is almost impossible.

0
0
transmissionofflame
transmissionofflame
2 years ago
Reply to  MTF

Why?

1
0
MTF
MTF
2 years ago
Reply to  transmissionofflame

People decide to get vaccinated anyway, the researchers lose track of the subjects but not in a random way, subjects emigrate, the researchers move on and there is no one to sustain it etc.

0
0
transmissionofflame
transmissionofflame
2 years ago
Reply to  MTF

So how do you suggest we assess whether “vaccines” are doing more harm than good?

2
0
MTF
MTF
2 years ago
Reply to  transmissionofflame

RCTs in the short term and observational studies.in the short and long term. Which is what is happening.

3
-4
transmissionofflame
transmissionofflame
2 years ago
Reply to  MTF

Except as you point out, observational studies have their issues – not the least of which is that there is considerable uncertainty as to how many “unvaccinated” people there are. For the trillions that have been spent worldwide on this miracle medicine, which a lot of people were bullied or coerced into taking, to save us from a “deadly pandemic”, very little effort seems to be going into finding out whether it’s been money well spent – especially as many highly “vaccinated” countries have seen higher excess deaths coinciding with “vaccination” campaigns.

8
0
MTF
MTF
2 years ago
Reply to  transmissionofflame

Of course they have issues. Many new interventions have similar problems. You can only do your best. I dispute that very little effort is going into assessing the vaccines. Try entering “Covid Vaccine Trials” into Google Scholar.

2
-2
transmissionofflame
transmissionofflame
2 years ago
Reply to  MTF

Can you point me to major observational studies taking place whose objective is to measure “vaccine” impact on public health?

2
0
MTF
MTF
2 years ago
Reply to  transmissionofflame

You can start with the ONS data that I have linked to a couple of times already.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/deathsbyvaccinationstatusengland

Here is a couple more creamed off Google Scholar.

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14760584.2023.2158816

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14760584.2023.2157817

I am sorry but I going to have to stop this dialogue at this point.

1
-2
Chris P
Chris P
2 years ago
Reply to  MTF

Shame, I was going to point out the Pfizer trial was unblinded March 2021 at which point 21 people had died in the ‘vaccine’ group compared to 17 in the placebo group. The numbers were not large enough to be statistically significant but don’t you think it was imperative every effort was made to continue the trial until statistically significant all cause mortality was available? Especially considering the intention was to inject as many of the global population as possible. Pfizer and the FDA wanted to keep the trial data hidden for 75 years.

13
0
The Dogman
The Dogman
2 years ago
Reply to  MTF

I think the first part of your answer is correct, but I am not sure the last part is. As far as I am aware the bias goes the other way, known as the ‘healthy vaccinee effect’. People from ethnic minorities in particular are less likely to be vaccinated than the general population, and these groups tend to have poorer health than the general population. Also people with chronic disease or those close to death are less likely to be vaccinated.

7
0
MTF
MTF
2 years ago
Reply to  The Dogman

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/deathsbyvaccinationstatusengland

0
0
JayBee
JayBee
2 years ago

Maybe I misinterpret that, but is every (positive…) Covid (test…minus Omicron adjustment… ) death labeled as an excess death now?!
When, as per the graph, we have 10.8k a week dead instead of 10k normally and that little blue Covid dot equals the 349 ‘excess’ Covid deaths, it sure seems so.

1
0
Rachel Taylor
Rachel Taylor
2 years ago

The Economist has an article this week about declining life expectancy in the UK preceding Covid, starting from about 2010. It gives the probably causes as obesity, and drug and alcohol misuse (naturally labelled “poverty”). So it would be interesting to see the trends going back to, say, 2000.

3
0
JaneDoeNL
JaneDoeNL
2 years ago

The Dutch bean counters have pulled the same trick – the baseline now includes 3 years of corona deaths, pushing it higher.

And yes, it is a trick – the deaths were exceptionally high and could be expected to drop back to somewhere near 2020 levels – hiding the fact they have not is deceitful in the extreme. Particularly when one adds in the fact that the deaths should in fact be trending lower than normal due to the pull-forward effort.

In any event, it’s rather funny – excess deaths were high here through to the beginning of the year, then started dropping and for several weeks had been where expected (on the higher baseline – I found a chart mapping the 5-year period to 2019, 2023 has been well above it) – as of last week they are heading up again. The flu was given as the explanation for the excess deaths to the beginning of the year, but as far as I know neither the flu nor corona are deemed to be rampant right now, so what explains the up trend?

The most positive data on the vaxx is that it provides efficacy for up to 3 months, then starts dropping. At a certain point, 6 months to 9 months post-last dose, people seem to be not only more likely to catch the lurgy, but more likely to get ill. The roll-out in NL started mid-September. Sure I know, all these pesky correlations does not equal causations – whatever it takes to help people sleep at night.

As for Sweden – smart on lockdowns, just as stupid as everyone else on vaxxes.

34
0
Chris P
Chris P
2 years ago
Reply to  JaneDoeNL

Apart from the ordinary Bulgarians who are distrustful of the authorities. Bulgaria has not been experiencing excess deaths recently.

12
0
JOpenmind
JOpenmind
2 years ago
Reply to  Chris P

What about the least vaxxed counties in the world. What does the data indicate?

7
0
Chris P
Chris P
2 years ago
Reply to  JOpenmind

Yes, you’re correct I was being eurocentric. Just looking at our World in Data for South Africa: from the last peak of excess deaths on 9th October 22 the percentages are as follows: –

Oct 9 7%
Oct 16 5%
Oct 23 1%
Oct 30 (3)%
Nov 6 (1)%
Nov 13 2%
Nov 20 4%
Nov 27 3%
Dec 4 (1)%
Dec 11 (1)%

Relative up to date data for other African countries doesn’t appear to be available.

4
0
barrososBuboes
barrososBuboes
2 years ago

Wish we could see mortality rates in young people as any danger signal would be much more pronounced.

7
0
Chris P
Chris P
2 years ago
Reply to  barrososBuboes

You can to an extent with Euromomo data and I think it is: –

https://euromomo.eu

1
0
Rachel Taylor
Rachel Taylor
2 years ago

Well-researched speech by Brigden in the HoC today for the debate on mRNA jabs. Not a single person on the opposite benches. Not one. Brigden has been cancelled, unlike Lineker.

23
0
LMR
LMR
2 years ago

The doctors at FLCCC who have treated many vaccine injured say that if someone is going to have an adverse reaction it will happen either within the first two weeks or 5 months after vaccination. This spike is possibly the result of the Autumn booster campaign which started around 5 months ago. The Lockdown Files were government-approved and designed to detract attention away from the true crimes of the past few years.

0
0

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