Deaths continue to run at extraordinary levels in England and Wales. In the week ending January 13th 2023 there were 17,381 deaths, which is 2,837 or 19.5% above the five-year average. This is despite the five-year average having risen due to the early 2021 Covid wave. Compared to the pre-pandemic five-year average of 13,822 it is 3,559 or 25.7% above average.
There were 922 deaths with Covid registered on the death certificate, of which 654 were registered as due to Covid as underlying cause. This leaves 2,183 excess deaths from a different underlying cause. Since the wave of excess non-Covid deaths began in April the total now stands at 34,691.
I have previously noted how waves of excess non-Covid deaths appear to correlate with the Covid booster campaigns in spring and autumn, as seen in the chart below, which shows deaths by date of occurrence in England and Wales.
It’s clear, however, that these correlations with booster rollouts are far from determinative of the overall shape of the curve. In particular, deaths remained high during the summer and have spiked over the winter, despite few boosters being delivered in those periods.
The Health Advisory and Recovery Team (HART) has noted this week that high-level mortality data like these do not contain an “obvious smoking gun” pointing to vaccines causing high numbers of deaths specifically during the vaccination campaigns. Rather, the excess deaths are broadly spread throughout the year. The appearance is of something generally raising the likelihood of death, or equivalently, reducing life expectancy. (This doesn’t appear to be due to an ageing population; see here for a discussion on this point.)
The lack of correlation with vaccination programmes has led some to question the role that vaccines are playing in driving the excess deaths and advance arguments in support of other possible explanations, such as Long Covid, the NHS crisis and the legacy of lockdown including missed treatment. While some of these other contributors may be valid, it would be wrong to rule out a role for the vaccines simply on the basis of a lack of correlation with vaccination campaigns. This is because the mechanisms by which a vaccine may injure a person are not fully understood, and those for which understanding is more developed, such as auto-immune reactions due to the persistence of spike protein in the blood and organs, give plenty of scope for a delayed effect. In particular, we should note that many of the excess deaths are related to the heart and circulatory system, and the vaccines are known to increase the risk of such deaths.
Chief Medical Officer Chris Whitty has recently claimed that 5,170 deaths in men aged 50-64 could have been helped by heart medications that were missed during the pandemic. Health Secretary Steve Barclay agreed, saying that “we know from the data that there are more 50 to 64-year-olds with cardiovascular issues” – a state of affairs he blamed on “the result of delays in that age group seeing a GP because of the pandemic and in some cases, not getting statins for hypertension in time”. The British Heart Foundation published research earlier this month which made similar claims.
However, such claims were dismissed by Dr. Carl Heneghan, Professor of Evidence-based Medicine at Oxford University, and his colleague Dr. Tom Jefferson, who wrote that the extra cardiovascular disease deaths cannot be accounted for by a fall in drug treatment or drop in risk monitoring, “given the lack of evidence of an effect”. In making this assessment they relied in part on a major recent study reviewing the trial data on statins and concluding that the benefits of statins were minimal and most of the trial participants who took statins derived no clinical benefit. Dr. Heneghan and Dr. Jefferson also noted that the claimed reduction in prescriptions appears to be illusory, with rises and falls well within normal levels.
Unlike allegedly missed prescriptions, the NHS crisis is more plausibly contributing to excess deaths, as people experience severe delays getting urgent medical attention. However, the crisis can hardly explain sustained levels of deaths throughout the year or generally increased demand for health services. Something must be making people sicker in the first place.
As I have noted previously, the main alternative explanation is the after-effects of the virus, also known as Long Covid. Interestingly, the British Heart Foundation dismisses this as a factor, laying the blame entirely on access to healthcare – though is there an agenda here of calling for more resources for the sector? But a number of others see the virus as a much bigger factor than the vaccines in driving additional heart deaths.
One problem for the vaccine-deaths hypothesis, they note, is the lack of excess working-age deaths in a number of highly vaccinated countries. Ron Unz has recently written an article drawing attention to this point, observing that while working-age mortality has been very high in the United States and U.K., some other countries, including highly vaccinated ones, have been exempt from this trend.
To develop his argument, Unz draws on analysis which shows that a very strong predictor of working-age mortality in 2022 is mortality in 2020, as illustrated in the charts below.
From this Unz concludes that: “The level of 2022 deaths was largely determined by the same factors, probably the interaction of Covid infections with local health characteristics, such as obesity levels and the strength of the public health system rather than having been influenced by the vaxxing.”
This correlation is a very helpful observation, but it actually has the opposite meaning to that which Unz takes from it. Far from suggesting the vaccines are not playing a role, it is consistent with the vaccines playing a significant part. This is because the elevated deaths in 2020 were caused largely by COVID-19 (as well as lockdown measures). But during 2021 and in 2022, Covid was no longer driving excess deaths. Whether this was due to protection from the vaccines, the growth of natural immunity or the arrival of the milder Omicron variants is not material here. What matters is that excess deaths shifted from being primarily respiratory related, driven by COVID-19, to being cardiovascular related, driven by an unknown cause.
What is now driving these excess deaths, which, as Unz notes, appear to be occurring among the same risk groups as were at risk of serious COVID-19? Unz proposes it is still Covid, and that despite the reduction in the severity of the disease, it is the virus behind the scenes driving the extra cardiovascular deaths.
This is a false dichotomy, however. An argument for the virus being involved in non-Covid cardiovascular deaths is also an argument for the vaccines potentially being involved as well. This is because one of the main contentions supporting the vaccines being involved is that the mRNA and spike protein travel to various organs, especially the heart, and persist there for weeks and months, causing injury and triggering auto-immune attacks – a mechanism supported by a number of autopsy studies. This is a very similar mechanism to how the virus may contribute to problems with the heart and other organs. Indeed, it is likely that both are contributing to the effect, reinforcing each other in various ways. Another possibility is that the immune tolerance induced by repeated vaccinations is contributing to the persistence of the spike protein in the body. Either way, it means that the underlying risk factors for Covid death will often be the same for vaccine death, and the correspondence between mortality in 2020 and 2022 would therefore be expected.
The question is whether the virus or vaccines are playing the bigger, more fundamental role in driving excess heart deaths.
One reason for thinking that the vaccines may be playing a big part is that the vaccine enters the body via the blood directly whereas the virus enters via the respiratory tract and thus has much more limited access to the blood and heart in most cases.
Further evidence supporting a role for the vaccines comes from the work of Professor Christine Stabell-Benn and colleagues, who looked at the vaccine trial data and found no overall mortality benefit from the mRNA vaccines, and a particular signal for increased heart deaths. This suggests that while the vaccines reduce Covid deaths they may increase other deaths, particularly from cardiovascular causes.
Some health experts in Japan have come to a similar conclusion. In that country, Covid deaths have actually been increasing after each booster campaign. Public health authorities have noted, however, that the ‘Covid’ deaths now are more likely to be test-positive deaths from cardiovascular problems rather than classic respiratory deaths. There are also many non-Covid excess deaths in Japan, again largely from heart problems.
With respect to myocarditis in particular, a recent analysis by HART notes that elevated myocarditis admissions began with the vaccine rollout and did not occur in 2020, indicating a limited role for the virus and a major role for the vaccines.
Given this evidence that the vaccines may be playing a large role in excess deaths, why are working age deaths below average in many countries, as Unz observes?
Differences in vaccination rates may be doing their bit here. Some analyses have suggested that higher booster rates are associated with higher deaths in 2022.
This may explain some of the variation. Also, recall that for working-age mortality, Unz’s analysis shows that one of the main predictors of 2022 mortality is 2020 mortality, suggesting a common cause in both years. A natural interpretation of this, given the drop in Covid severity and the arrival of the vaccines, is that populations less susceptible to COVID-19 are, for the same reasons – prevalence of obesity, heart disease and so on – also less susceptible to fatal vaccine injury.
What we really need are more and better data – split by vaccination status, age, health conditions, prior infection status and so on. Even better, we need well-designed, prospective, controlled studies that look into these things properly. The fact that, after more than two years, we still have none of these things should give even the most ardent defenders of the vaccines pause for thought. If the data were favourable to the vaccines, would they not have been made available with great fanfare long ago?
In the meantime, it’s clear that the vaccines are still a leading suspect in the question of why so many people have been dying, mainly from heart-related issues, in the last two years.
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Nothing will ever change without totally dismantling the health system as it stands, and I can’t see anyone getting to grips with that anytime soon. It doesn’t help that the NHS is seen as some kind of sacred cow that most people praise rather than criticise, despite the evidence in front of their eyes. I am willing to bet 50 to 60% of the management jobs, which often appear to duplicate each other, could be got rid of.
This coming winter…covid, blah blah blah, flu, blah blah blah – and of course it will all the the fault of the general public because they are thoughless enough to catch things, get sick and clutter up the wards. The NHS often has the knack of making you feel you are a nuisance, doesn’t it?
Cleansing the structural Blairism might already help.
Every problem that has afflicted this country since Bliar was encouraged to quit can be attributed to –
Tony Bliar.
That horrible, evil piece of crap will still be undermining this country even when he has been called to Satan’s side.
An interesting question would be how much direct influence he possibly still wields. Eg, both NHS management and the Tony Blair Institute favour the same policy decisions wrt the so-called pandemic. Is this really coincidence or is someone exploiting still existing person networks there?
Poor Satan.
…and Starmer now ‘channeling’ his inner Tony Blair, gawd help us.
Couldn’t agree with you more.
Doubtless there will be an outbreak of mask-enforcement and social distancing at hospitals this month. This will have two effects. First, it will increase the illusion that the NHS is battling with an unprecedented and overwhelming rise in Covid cases, thus diverting attention from the more fundamental long-term and systemic problems that the NHS faces. Secondly, it will provide renewed employment to the mask-bouncers at hospitals and to the installers of sticky-backed arrows and Perspex screens.
PS: it’s Thursday tomorrow; do we bangs saucepans, deploy rainbows or kneel?
Actually, I will be out with my neighbours tonight – not banging pans, just standing around chatting over a bottle or 2 of wine. Every cloud has a silver lining.
For as long as the NHS spends as much as £1 on general political agendas (eg, workforce diversity training instead of medical training), it’s obviously overfunded and throwing more money at it won’t improve anything.
I’ve just been for an x-ray at my local hospital this afternoon and I was not looking forward to it. I was expecting some meeter and greeter with mask and hand sanitiser, but there was none. So I walked in without a mask went to reception booked in. I was taken for an x-ray 10 minutes later and sent on my way without a glance or a word from any member of staff of whom there seemed to be plenty about. A strange experience.
Wow! How lovely! My last encounter with the NHS was in August. Two out of three chairs taped off, plastic screens everywhere & the demand to wear a mask from the reception staff. The HCA who did the pre consultant baselines of height, weight & bp was more than happy to take off hers as was the consultant! He even did a bare hands examination of muscle tone & reflexes.
It’s definitely coming from the top of each Trust. Sadly the compliance amongst the general population attending was high.
Lucky guy. My last few encounters with NHS (dentist and GP) have been very confrontational. Exhausting tbh. Seems to vary wildly though – and that just supports the fact that none of them know what the hell they’re doing or why.
I think you are just being unlucky. Neither my gp surgery nor my dentist (not NHS though) requires masks, and hasn’t done for many months. I think it’s just down to regional variation.
I made an appointment with my GP yesterday (I know what’s wrong and need a prescription-only cream) and the nearest time-slot available is 4 weeks away. And that’s in a small west country town, goodness only knows how long it would be if I lived in an overcrowded city.
From October last year. It’s the annual bleatings for more money etcetera.
As in education, too little money and capacity are not the problem, too much of it certainly is.
Instead, the real problems are attitude, ever worsening work ethics and commitment, internal politics and vested interests leading to now cemented misorganisation and mismanagement.
As with many departments, short term political appointments are subject to manipulation by established professional “servants” which are, in fact “complex and long lasting”. They tend to last long in their jobs, with a nice pension later on.
“The question on everyone’s tongue right now is will the NHS be in crisis this winter?”
Well, let me beg to differ – it’s certainly not a question on my tongue and the subject never entered my head. The opening statement is pure propoganda. Boll Ox.
Actually, the question on my tongue is; are we all going to be nuked into oblivion?
Putting rouge on the cheeks of a corpse. Again.
It is a State run industry. All State run industries fail – fact, backed by multiple examples in multiple Countries over the last Century – and they fail for precisely the same reason, they are State run, therefore they must primarily serve political objectives, secondly serve the interests of the unionised workers who are paid on length of service or grade rather than merit or industry – no incentive to work better/harder.
They cannot go bankrupt and have no shareholders therefore require no fiscal discipline and have no access to private capital. They are cost centres, so there us a perverse incentive to do less to keep within budget. They have no cost/price structure so efficiency/productivity cannot be measured,
There is no competition so consumers have no choice, Leviathan has no need to improve or serve consumer interests.
This will not, can not be changed until the monopoly is taken away and a competitive private market in health insurance and provision can develop.
Absolutely right on every point. Very well said.
Everyone says the NHS is much loved with its free at point of use, but it’s also almost unique in the world in the way it is funded and centrally managed.
Most European systems are to a certain extent ‘private’ in that they’re not managed by central government.
The question is, can a government in the UK change to the European model without too much push back from all the vested interests? Probably not, but one of them really needs to try as the current system of just increasing the money put in is clearly not working.
The other feature that is often not well understood is that some specialists in various roles are available to work for third party private firms, or for themselves, part time. Often in non-NHS buildings just next door, or even in the same building in smaller outfits, such as dental surgeries.
This is relatively unusual in other industries – after all, many contracts do not permit one to work for competitors while employed by a particular firm, for good reasons in most situations.
I am sure face masks worn all day by staff make them feel so much happier and securer in their jobs and the reintroduction of social distancing and other Covid protocols should leave all staff with so much more time for the latest diversity course.