Whisper it quietly – and don’t tell Al ‘Boiling Oceans’ Gore – but the Northern hemisphere may be entering a temperature cooling phase until the 2050s with a decline up to 0.3°C. By extension, the rest of the globe will also be cooled. These sensational findings, ignored by the mainstream media, were released last year and are the work of six top international scientists led by Nour-Eddine Omrani of the Norwegian Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research. Published in the Nature journal Climate and Atmospheric Science, the scientists say that the North Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, an important sea current that has been pumping warmer water into the Arctic, is weakening and that’s leading to a cooler North Atlantic area and lower temperatures, as was observed in the period 1950-1970.
Certainly, current observations back up these suggestions. As we reported recently, Arctic summer sea ice stopped declining about a decade ago and has shown recent growth. The Greenland surface ice sheet grew by almost 500 billion tonnes in the year to August 2022, and this was nearly equivalent to its estimated annual loss. Of course, climate alarmists have not quite caught up with these recent trends, with Sir David Attenborough telling his BBC Frozen Planet II audience that the summer sea ice could all be gone within 12 years.
Interestingly, the six scientists, whose work has helped debunk the ‘settled’ science myth, still attribute some global warming to human causes. The Northern hemisphere is characterised by “several multidecadal climate trends that have been attributed to anthropogenic climate change”. But producing work that predicts 30 years of global cooling puts them outside the ‘settled’ narrative that claims human-produced carbon dioxide is the main – possibly the only – determinant of global and local temperatures. At the very least, it dials down the hysteria pushing for almost immediate punitive net-Zero measures. Lead author Omrani is reported to have said that the expected warming pause “gives us time to work out technical, political and economic solutions before the next warming phase, which will take over again from 2050”.
Needless to say, such thinking was absent at last week’s Davos climate freak show, with elite delegates ramping up the fearmongering to record heights. Former U.S. Vice-President Al Gore went into full meltdown, ranting about “rain bombs” and “boiling oceans”. Current U.S. climate envoy, and private jet owner, John Kerry described the gathering as a “select” group of people trying to “save the planet”, while chief UN carnival barker Antonio Guterres claimed we were flirting with climate disaster and every week brought a new horror story. Of course, some might suggest that in the circumstances this was an all-round excellent effort to whip up more money – ahem, I mean more genuine climate concern – at a time when corals, Arctic sea ice, the Greenland ice sheet, polar bears and now global warming are having to be retired from the poster-alarm portfolio.
As we have noted on numerous occasions, rising global temperatures ran out of steam about two decades ago. Accurate satellite records show pauses from around 2000 to 2012 and a current one lasting over eight years. It could be argued that the only real warming for over 20 years was caused by a particularly powerful El Nino natural oscillation around the middle of the last decade. Surface datasets run by operations like the U.K. Met Office have added retrospective warming, while there are increasing doubts about the on-site recording of massive heat distortions caused by the growth in cities and towns across the globe.
The Omrani paper is complex but it revolves around the effect of the cyclical and natural North Atlantic Multidecadel Oscillation (AMO). Observations and records dating back to the start of the 19th century have shown enormous Arctic sea ice changes. It appears the AMO plays a major part in these changes. A key projection of the paper is “further weakening of the North Atlantic Oscillation, North Atlantic cooling and hiatus in wintertime North Atlantic Arctic sea ice and global surface temperatures just like the 1950 – 1970s”. If there is a drop comparable with this period, the global temperature could fall by up to 0.3°C.
Any science that downplays the involvement of human-caused CO2 is largely ignored in mainstream academia, politics and the media. But even some scientists who argue there is considerable anthropogenic input recognise the role played by natural atmospheric factors in a constantly changing climate. More sceptical scientists such as Emeritus Professor Richard Lindzen of MIT have an intellectual objection to blaming all or most changes in global temperatures on just one trace atmospheric gas. Lindzen is dismissive of this “one dimensional” view of the climate. He is of the climate science school of thought that argues that temperature changes are caused by dynamic heat flows in the atmosphere and the oceans, and these in turn are caused by latitudinal differences in temperature, or ‘baroclinic instability’ to give it a scientific term.
For Lindzen, it is “absurd” to assume that the controlling factor for temperature changes in our complex, three-dimensional climate is the small contribution made by CO2. It seems that the more scientists look and explore, the more they understand that the atmosphere and the climate it produces is an immensely complex environment affected by many far-reaching natural influences.
Chris Morrison is the Daily Sceptic’s Environment Editor. He was a recent guest on the podcast of online climate journalist Tom Nelson, where he talked about his early journalistic influences, life as a journalist and an entrepreneur, joining a rock and roll band and his recent work on the Daily Sceptic. You can listen here.
Stop Press: Check out the Extinction Clock, a website that keeps track of all the predictions climate alarmists have made that haven’t come true. For example, this prediction in a 2009 MSNBC documentary called ‘Future Earth: What Will Earth Look Like in 2025?’ that the Hoover Damn would be a ‘dry hole’ by 2021 if nothing was done to avert the looming water shortage.
To join in with the discussion please make a donation to The Daily Sceptic.
Profanity and abuse will be removed and may lead to a permanent ban.
The ppl pushing the co2 scare are evil and will not be reasoned with. In the end they will have to be forcibly removed from all authority. I see civil war as inevitable in many western nations, as the co2 cult is a religion.
the cult must be desperate to achieve ‘net zero’ more quickly so as to take credit for the upcoming natural cooling period…
posted this later on but it deserves to go here too me thinks…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7tAYXQPWdC0
ps. don’t forget to turn all your electrical appliances off tonight at 5-6pm because there’s not enough electric to go round – we’re saving the planet remember – welcome back to the stone age, enjoy your stay
I am not a “climate scientist”, but isn’t this what the theory of the “Grand Solar Minimum” suggested several years ago?
No such thing as a climate scientist, just paid mediocrities who tell authority what they want to hear.
Hence my quotation marks around the term!
I know just making it completely clear
Putting the word ‘climate’ in front of the word ‘scientist’ is like putting the word ‘witch’ in front of the word ‘doctor’.
Yes good to analogy.
I don’t think so. This is a multi-decadal climate event whereas a solar minimal or solar maximal event can span several centuries and is largely driven by the sun.
The next solar minimum is starting now and is due to end in 2053
Absolutely correct
https://www.nature.com/articles/srep15689
The research is into the Pacific and Atlantic ocean cycles. If the sun is driving those, then yes
Not theory. Fact. The Little Ice Age was the result of a Grand Solar Minimum
See image below (Zharkova – https://solargsm.com/)
Note. NO models even try to emulate Solar Activity. Hence are missing a major driver of climate.
It’s certainly absurd to over emphasise any effect on the climate by our activities. However, it appears to be useful as a mechanism for transferring the blame when there has not been enough investment in infrastructure that can cope with it all, or building things on flood plains, etc.
According to the ice record and many other historical data sets, we are living in one of the most stable periods that have occurred in many eons! Sea level ,for one, has never been as stable and predictable for tens of thousands of years
!
what do these people want before they are satisfied where not all going to spontaneously combust?
oh yes, more money
In other words—–The facts don’t fit the theory, and if that is the case then the theory is WRONG. It does not matter how many bureaucrats stand at a podium at huge international climate conferences talking about the “Climate Crisis”. If the facts don’t fit the theory, then there is no “climate crisis” and that means something else is going on. That “something else” is POLITICS. Only by understanding those POLITICS can we see what this is all really about, and it mostly isn’t about the climate.
In the 1970s it was globaloney cooling from the plant food 95% emitted by Gaia, 0.035% at that time, gas by weight….’The $cience’ in 1974 sent a letter to Nixon demanding he carpet bomb the Arctic with ash or detonate well placed nuclear devices to ‘melt’ or ‘break up’ the growing ice mass. I guess ‘The $cience’ did not know that the Arctic is 1% of total ice volume on the planet…..If the earth is cooling it will be the fault of the rounding error chemical necessary for life which falls out of climate processes.
GlobaloneyClimate-whatevering is as brain dead a religious cult of corruption, criminality and totaltiarianism as Rona. Frightening.
Look how the deep state dealt with Nixon, he was far too interested in helping US citizens and not carpet bombing the world.
Meanwhile, in Australia, temperatures in Sydney are warmed up nicely by placing solar panels adjacent to the official Stevenson screen.
https://joannenova.com.au/2023/01/jolly-odd-what-sydney-observatory-record-cold-spell-broken-with-help-from-awol-solar-panel/
Sadly (and alarmingly so), if true and this temp reduction happens and is measurable, then as we move into NetZero, those pushing it can claim success on temp (while ignoring the probable destruction of society). Popcorn, I guess.
Except they can’t because CO2 levels have kept on rising steadily even as the warming has paused for several years.
My understanding is that stated goal of the IPCC and NetZero is holding temperature to defined limits, not CO2. Yes, the targets seem to move around. Perhaps I’m not right on that, but coincidently Roger Pielke, Jr just wrote about that on his Substack Blog: https://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/the-15-degree-temperature-target.
Projections of future climate, whatever those projections are, are the result of modelling. ————-But modelling is not science, and it is not evidence of anything. If sceptics of climate change challenge claims from models that the earth will dangerously warm and extreme weather will occur then in order to be consistent, they must also challenge claims that those things won’t happen. Otherwise, they could be accused of “cherry picking”. The one thing that these latest reports show though is that there isn’t the “consensus” that keeps getting pushed for political purposes, and for sure these scientists and modellers who do not state the world will dangerously warm will be hounded and name called. That is simply how it goes in the world of Climate “official science”, where any threat to that “consensus” will not be tolerated. Which only reveals what some of us have known for some time, that climate change is all about politics, not science, because in science you question everything.
From the Guardian on 15th January – an article about why more under 30’s are not drinking alcohol:
“It’s possible that booze has also gone out of fashion; “gin-o’clock” culture and prosecco-popping parents might have made alcohol uncool. There are certainly signs of a noticeable increase in the frequency of young people using illegal drugs. And there’s the cost-of-living crisis: alcohol is a luxury many simply can’t afford. Rather than incapacitating themselves, younger people are under pressure to be productive, either in work, or trying to fix the global climate-catastrophe mess”.
Perhaps there should be a weekly competition on the most ludicrous mention of “climate change” in an MSM article
Under 30 is a category that’s 60:40 divided into age where consumption of alcoholic drinks is prohibited vs age where it’s legal. But the luxury many cannot afford ought to be remembered for the next time the teetotallers argue that their sin tax must be increased because alcohol would be just too cheap.
Not sure how much of a contributing factor, but for a growing percentage of under 30’s, alcohol is forbidden by their religion.
Manheimer and Ian Plimer are also worth reading in in this regard.
I just wonder where all the scientific critics and criticism has been over the last 2 decades?
Have they always been there and just been ignored/censored?
Are they waking up and/or finally getting coverage because it is 5 past twelve already and costly laws have been passed and are about to impact everyone?
Is it the absurdities and the recognition of censorship in the MSM through Covid that has finally woken me and others up and making us realise this criticism?
May I remind to the respected author that the grand solar minimum in 2020-2053 is predicted in 2015! by our article in Nature Scientific reports Zharkova et al, 2015 https://www.nature.com/articles/srep15689.
Later in 2020 I explained how this gsm will affect the terrestrial temperature https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/23328940.2020.1796243.
you should do your homework.
kind regards
Valentina Zharkova
Is it too early to bring Spock back out – rinse – repeat….
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7tAYXQPWdC0
We predicted the grand solar minimum in 2015 in the Nature Scientific reports paper Zharkova et al 2015 https://www.nature.com/articles/srep15689. This has been widely coveted by the media see https://solargsm.com
Later in 2020 Zharkova explained the effect of gsm on terrestrial environment
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/23328940.2020.1796243.
regards
V Zharkova
It has been reported 8 years ago
https://www.nature.com/articles/srep15689
It has been reported much earlier. https://www.nature.com/articles/srep15689
i paid 5 pounds. Why this comment keeps disappearing?
The mini ice age in 2020-2053 has been predicted in 2015 https://www.nature.com/articles/srep15689
https://www.nature.com/articles/srep15689
There was no snow in the larger part of the 1990. Not “a bit of snowfall”, not “a few weeks of snow” but NO SNOW WHATSOEVER. On New Year’s Eve 2000, I attended the open air new year party on Mainz Ludwigstraße. There was a DJ playing party music atop the Roman gate at the entry of the market place and then suddenly, it started to snow lightly. I still vividly remember my total consternation: “What the hell is going on here? I haven’t seen any snow for years!” In the 20 years since then, we’ve long grown accustomed to snow in winter again.
The nice thing about globally averaged temperatures (there is no such thing as a global temperature in the exact same way that there is no such things as a global height above sea level) is that effects like the regional cooling in Europe after a period of warmth in the 1990s, can be hidden with the help of temperature readings from hotter places on earth. Like, say, the southen hemisphere where it’s summer during out winter. Or the equatorial area where it’s generally hot (for our understanding of hot).
The global warming scam took off in the 1990, the original cause was supposed to be a hole in the ozone layer over the north pole. That got swapped for CO2 in the atmosphere when it ceased to work. The reason for this was that – for our very limited recorded knowledge of temperatures in the past, stretching back no more than about 2 centuries – the 1990s were an unusually warm decade. When the trend started to turn around the turn of the century, the position was already suffieciently entrenched that it became indepdendent of actual weather trends.
Central and northern Greenland has been warming over the last decade, and the warming is on average 1.5 ± 0.4 degrees Celsius warmer than through the twentieth century – Horland et al. Nature 613, 503 (2023).
By systematically redrilling ice cores, we created a high-quality reconstruction of central and north Greenland temperatures from ad 1000 until 2011. Here we show that the warming in the recent reconstructed decade exceeds the range of the pre-industrial temperature variability in the past millennium with virtual certainty (P < 0.001) and is on average 1.5 ± 0.4 degrees Celsius (1 standard error) warmer than the twentieth century.
Reconstructed is a fancy term for As we have no data, we made something up which seems probable to us. As the text indicates, the most recent reconstructed decade ended in 2011. That was over 10 years ago, hence the claim that Greenland has been warming over the last decade is at odds with the paper you’re alluding to. Lastly the 1 standard error means change within the range of usual fluctutation, ie, nothing happened.
Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-05517-z
https://www.researchgate.net/figure/The-60-year-cycle-modulation-of-the-temperature-19-Red-global-temperature-detrended_fig10_45904941
Grand Solar Minimum in progress. Worth noting that the end of the last century saw the most active sun in 8000 years. Sun more or less asleep now.
https://www.mpg.de/research/sun-activity-high
Climate Alarmists Fly in Private Jets
Stand in the Park Make friends & keep sane
Sundays 10.30am to 11.30am
Elms Field
near Everyman Cinema & play area
Wokingham RG40 2FE
https://off-guardian.org/2023/01/23/16-memes-to-get-you-through-the-day-part-30/cm30-hand-ai-test-bladerunner/
https://off-guardian.org/?attachment_id=87155
Greta’s arrest by German police.
They didn’t really arrest her. That had a staged photo op with a smiling Greta looking not at all unhappy with close physical proximity of two tall and pretty young men who – in turn – where obviously happy to get a selfie with such a celebrity. They also staged a scene where a couple of policemen carried her for a small distance,
https://www.t-online.de/digital/kolumne-nicole-diekmann/id_100114060/luetzerath-video-das-wird-fuer-greta-thunberg-zum-problem.html?fbclid=IwAR3-7lcS-ycTz0ulIZWe385iQ17hfjAbgznnV96fMQsFC_ppewsiv6bn7lo
I know all this. Just have a look at the OFF-G meme.
I admit I didn’t really see the second image. OTOH, Greta-baiting doesn’t work on me, ie, it’s not going to lure me into Greta-bashing (people who stage the former can than use to lament about hatred). Instead of focussing on this not overly bright (and meanwhile pretty overweight) young woman, it’s much better to point out how poorly choreographed the publicity stunts involving her usually are, as this communicates something about the sincerity of her puppet-masters. They do not believe in their own stories. Hence, nobody else should, either.
This is putting it mildly given the windswept nature of our country. The combined effect of the cold and the extra dampness will result in a major increase in arthiritic conditions. These aren’t properly recognised in Britain but they account for a lot of the incapcity in this country. As the younger demographic becomes more and more immigrant derived you will see such tendencies exacerbated. What you really want for the times ahead is a freackled red-headed Brit who was built to stand out in the cold and had a bit of constitution.
Charlemagne approved of linseed oil so much that he made it mandatory for his soldiers. It does make a difference in very wet and cold weather. It makes you feel like you have a layer of protection.
The old remedies are still the best – goose grease and bacon fat. If you are sending your children to school in the morning then just sew a bit of bacon fat into their vest and smear then with goose grease it really works. Same goes for yourself.
Did you copy & paste this from Readers’ Letters in Viz?
Climate change is always happening and is in the past independent of human influence. El Niño variations and volcanic eruptions, changes in the earth’s magnetic field, solar storms all play a part. Human activity includes rainforest destruction, desertification by overgrazing, diversion of rivers and atmospheric mixing caused by wind turbines. Given that we cannot yet generate enough electricity to power a nation full of electric vehicles, and won’t by 2030, I wonder how long it will be before the phasing-out of fossil fuel vehicles by 2030 is a target that will be abandoned.
this is also relevant. How the sun affects temperatures on Earth (w/ Professor Valentina Zharkova, Northumbria University).
https://youtu.be/JyyuouPSNEA
it may be that the solar minimum is driving the AMO, or they may be working in parallel in which case the cooling effect could be much more severe, as in the last little ice age (c. 1750-1850)
Anybody notice the proximity of the water to Resident Bidens Delaware document facility, sorry one of his many homes?. Sleepy Joe is obviously frightened of rising water levels!
I very much enjoy Chris morrison’s articles. He has the ability to make the subject both interesting and factual. I listened to some of the interview of him on the Nelson podcast and found that he was older than I expected which gave me even more confidence that he knows what he is talking about. Good chap for Toby to have for the Sceptic.
I second that. Sometimes, there’s a bit too much in them and he gets carried away by his own rethoric, but on balance, they’re always well worth a read.