One of the more amusing sections in the UKHSA Vaccine Surveillance Report was the small section tucked in at the end describing the vast numbers of hospitalisations averted and lives that had been saved by the vaccines. These continued to become ever more outrageous until September of last year, when the report claimed almost 25 million infections, 250,000 hospitalisations and 130,000 deaths had been prevented by the vaccines. The claim for the ‘infections prevented’ was particularly ludicrous; up until September 2021 there had only been around 6 million infections in total. We’re now at the point where the large majority of the population have had at least one Covid infection and many have had multiple infections. I’m sure that many people praised the gods of Pfizer and AstraZeneca after reading this particular section, even though the numbers offered were the results of enthusiastic computer models based on only the flimsiest of experimental data.
I’m sure that something happened in September 2021, as from that point the claims were frozen in time, with each weekly report stubbornly clinging onto the claims of the impact of the vaccines on the population but only up to September 2021. Then, surprisingly, in February 2022 the section was updated, with new enthusiastic claims for the number of hospitalisations averted during the Omicron wave. Eventually this update too was neutered; the real-world data clearly showed vast numbers infected with Omicron variant, with the vaccines offering very little impact on hospitalisations considering the infection numbers.
The section ended with a whimper in August, with only the following explanation as to why:
This analysis is not currently being updated due to the effect of the spring booster programme appearing increasingly in uptake data for three doses or more. This makes it difficult to assess the impact of initial booster on hospitalisations separately from the effects of the latest campaign.
I’m not entirely sure why this is relevant. Then again, they clearly wanted to get out of this obligation, as reality was embarrassingly different to their models’ predictions. I suppose their explanation was superior to stating that their dog had eaten the raw data.
But perhaps it shouldn’t be surprising that these incredible predictions of the power of the vaccines were being made – the misuse of biomathematical modelling has been a hallmark of this Covid epidemic. In the U.K. the outbreak started with dire predictions made by Imperial College’s modellers, with doom laden scenarios presented to the public in support of the stringent imposition of lockdowns. Much later, the authors of these predictions felt the need to make clear that they were only the worst-case predictions and claim that actually their models had performed well – but the authors nevertheless failed in their duty to explain the science to the public, and instead kept quiet while our politicians invented new laws to restrict behaviours and quash dissent. These models also, strangely, included assumptions of the powers of lockdowns, face-masks and other non-pharmaceutical interventions at slowing the spread of infection, when prior to 2020 the evidence had always suggested that they’d offer little if no benefit for a highly contagious respiratory virus (albeit most models were focused on the risks of influenza – similar enough, though).
The sorry tale of mathematical modelling and Covid is a shame, because mathematical models can provide valuable insight into how problems might occur and what could be done in mitigation – but our experiences of the last 30-plus months ably demonstrate how models are very sensitive to their input parameters, and how they can be misused by politicians keen to promote one particular ideology.
It is also important to note that these enthusiastic predictions, along with the other propaganda in the Vaccine Surveillance Report and elsewhere, could well have an impact far beyond even the disaster of the Covid lockdowns and other restrictions. We are now seeing signs of the population starting to distrust other vaccines and protective healthcare in general – this could end up with many people suffering serious illness or even death from the scourges of humanity’s past, such as measles, diphtheria and polio. Not that the current fetish amongst some ultra-wealthy individuals to banish all of the world’s diseases through vaccination is necessarily a good idea – vaccination can protect against some diseases, but by no means all of them, and the full impact of vaccination needs to be considered, particularly where the disease only rarely causes serious outcomes.
Next time I’ll discuss the aspect of the vaccines that supposedly drove the outlandish impact figures dreamt up by the modellers in the ‘infections averted’ section of the surveillance reports – vaccine uptake.
Amanuensis is an ex-academic and senior Government scientist. He blogs at Bartram’s Folly – subscribe here.
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“ I suppose their explanation was superior to stating that their dog had eaten the raw data.”
Very good.
The problems with modelling for political purposes are replicated with horrific effect upon Western Civilisation through the Climate Crisis Hoax. It has become fuel for the most criminal power grab in human history and excised the most destructive forces upon human freedom and prosperity ever seen.
Sorry but this statement is bullshit:
population starting to distrust other vaccines and protective healthcare in general – this could end up with many people suffering serious illness or even death from the scourges of humanity’s past, such as measles, diphtheria and polio
Utterly freaking wrong. Typhus/dipth from horse shit,fecal matter spread by flies or ingestion. Polio is from arsenic and chemicals in food / water. Measles IFR is close to zero and always has been. There is zero proof that the stabs did anything vs sanitation.
Please read Turtles all the way down for more info, there is an entire elucidating chapter on polio which shatters the myth of quacksine science.
They all contain poisons.
Leaving aside the merits or otherwise of vaccines in general and vaccines that are in common use, on which I am not qualified to pronounce, I think that people developing a strong scepticism for anyone who tells them “this is for your own good” must be a good thing rather than a source of regret.
Quite. Hygiene, sanitation and clean water have saved ANY more number of lives compared to jabs.
http://vaccinepapers.org/
It’s an interesting debate for sure. I’m certainly no expert, but have listened to both sides of the argument and find it very difficult to wholeheartedly agree with one side or the other. I certainly do think that vaccine harm in general is underplayed. My gut instinct is that the truth lies somewhere in the middle, which it usually does, in that there may be some vaccines that have a net benefit, but that the gradual improvement of sanitation and healthcare has played a significant hand. I don’t believe that the ridiculous child vaccination schedule can do anything other than net harm. That’s just my gut though.
While I disagree with your statement, I very much accept that it is a point that you’re entitled to bring up. There’s far too much ‘bow to authority’ in medicine, and some of the rationale behind some (too many) of the recommendations is rather weak.
I suggest that medicine is going to have a lot of work to undo the harm that has been caused over the last 3 years. Hopefully this will lead to some robust studies into the effectiveness of many of the medical products that have been thrust upon society over the decades.
All this flipflopping smacks of desperation.
Implausible Modelling behind climate & covid Claims
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We are now seeing signs of the population starting to distrust other vaccines and protective healthcare in general …
Yep, that’s me. I’ll never trust a doctor or medical professional again. Sorry, they’ve earned it.
A profession without a shred of credibility.
Anyone want to argue the opposite?
“A profession without a shred of credibility.”
Talk about a profession, indeed a whole industry being hollowed out. This 100 year old medical pharmacology business is shortly to enter its death throes and not before time. Holistic and nature based medicine is needed now more than ever.
My branch of medicine, sports and exercise medicine, deals primarily with lifestyle.
I no longer work with professional sportspeople and focus on lifestyle, diet, as well as musculoskeletal disease and injury.
I rarely prescribe drugs, and frequently cease people’s medications, improving pathology with a healthier lifestyle.
Not rocket surgery, though amazing how 99% of the profession resets to pills first.
99% of the profession resets to pills first
Yep, that’s what I’ve seen – and can’t think of any instances where it’s done any good.
Seriously though – as a doctor – don’t you think the profession is now reputationally broken? I don’t see how it recovers from this, inside of a generation.
Sports medicine: in my experience one of the biggest problems is over-training, leading to immune system depletion and musco-skeletal injuries.
I swim a fair bit – so not much risk of significant musco-skeletal injury. One problem though can be outer ear infections. I’ve had loads. Years ago I’d go to the doctor who’d prescribe anti-biotics, which worked for a few days then as soon as the course finished the infection would come back. And so more anti-biotics …
Then I discovered rubbing alcohol. Now I treat ear infections myself and cure them much quicker than any doctor I’ve ever dealt with. Even vinegar can work. Presumably whisky or brandy might as well. I guess any actual doctor would be horrified.
“Seriously though – as a doctor – don’t you think the profession is now reputationally broken?”
Yes.
Regarding overtraining – agreed that it can be an issue, at times with major consequences.
Hence my avoidance now of elite spert.
Amateur sport avoids this, as well as gambling and doping.
Ethically much more rewarding.
Yes.
Well thanks for being so candid.
Do you think anything can be done about it? Society needs health care it can trust, so something has to be done.
I suppose that implicit in my question is what has gone wrong with the profession?
Two potential explanations spring to mind.
First, doctors, intelligent and well-educated as they clearly are, lack capacity for critical thinking.
Second, they just don’t care.
I don’t think no. 2 can be entirely true (although it might be in some individuals). So I’m left with no. 1. But has doesn’t seem satisfactory either. How can well-educated, intelligent people be so dumb??
I’m struggling with this. Anyone think of anything else?
Always good to hear the opinions of medical professionals and pharma employees on here btw.
And I always imagined over-training was more of a problem in amateur sports, as generally amateurs don’t have coaches observing them to see when things are going awry, but I’d stand to be corrected on this. I suspect a lot of dark things go on in professional sports, that don’t make the back pages or TV screens. And from what I’ve seen once elite athletes drop out of professional sports they are on their own, not always with happy consequences.
My son may move in that direction. He’s currently a GP but doesn’t see that as a long term job any more.
It’s the protocols and pills that I see as an unattractive part of the job and the lack of individualisation nowadays. The sad thing is that many people just want to take drugs but not take charge of their own health.
The sad thing is that many people just want to take drugs but not take charge of their own health.
Yes, I think that’s spot on.
The even sadder thing is that their sense of entitlement extended to expecting others to take an untested gene therapy such that they didn’t need to take responsibility for their own health.
Same here.
Not for a moment TJN, who could blame you?
I rejected the jabs and I won’t be having any vaccines or “vaccines” in the future. I stay away from the medical profession as much as I possibly can …. which (although I’m in my early 60s) is most of the time since I take care of my own health.
If I had young children I would be VERY particular about the vaccines / “vaccines” they would have.
Something is driving the huge increase in autism-spectrum amongst children and I strongly suspect it is the amount of chemicals that are being injected into their young bodies at a very young age.