“Jeeves,” I said, “you’re talking rot.”
“Very good, sir.”
“Absolute drivel.”
“Very good, sir.”
“Pure mashed potatoes.”
“Very good, sir.”
“Very good, sir – I mean, very good Jeeves, that will be all.”
P.G. Wodehouse, Very Good Jeeves (1930)
The humble potato may struggle to grow in the U.K. in years to come due to climate change, reported BBC Scotland recently. Researchers are said to have identified “huge problems” coming in future with hotter weather and droughts “which pose an existential threat to the industry”. Needless to say all these future predictions arise from climate models including “crop simulation” research from the Invergowrie-based James Hutton Institute (JHI).
According to these models, there may be as many as 60 “heat stress” days of at least 25°C in the growing season in parts of England and Scotland, states Professor Lesley Torrance, the JHI director of science. The researchers claim that this will reduce yields. Is that great British delicacy, a simple plate of fried chips (plus pot of curry sauce for true gastronomic diversity), under existential risk? As always when the BBC tells you anything these days, it is a good idea to consult the actual data, and take the climate model forecasts and attribution guesses with a large dose of salt (and vinegar). First up, we can see that all that promised extra heat had better get a move on. In Scotland, the average temperature has been flatlining for nearly two decades.
Global warming came to a shuddering halt in Scotland many years ago – the same average temperature graph for the UK is little different. As we have noted in the past, the 2010s in the U.K., with an average temperature of 9.17°C, were cooler than the 2000s at 9.31°C. Rainfall in the U.K. is slightly higher of late, but the trend shows little change going back to Victorian times. And again, as regular readers will recall, the accuracy of the ‘homogenised’ surface temperature measurements is being increasingly called into question since much of the recent increases appear to owe a great deal to urban heat effects. Recent research reveals that the urban distortions could have added 50% extra warming over 50 years to 37 states across the eastern United States. The latest monthly data from the accurate UAH satellite data show the current pause in global temperatures – the second in the 21st century – has been extended to eight years one month.
The modest warming of around 1.1°C seen since the ending of the Little Ice Age around 1830 has not affected the recent production of potatoes in the U.K. A little extra warmth and slightly more rain, not to mention a tad more life-enhancing carbon dioxide, is beneficial for most plants. In the past, cold, wet weather has been the enemy of the potato crop across Europe. U.K. potato yields have grown since the 1970s, and over the last few years have varied around 5-6 million tonnes a year. The industry has become more efficient with registered potato growers falling in number over 50 years from 70,000 to 3,000. The graph below from Statista plots the value of the potato crop from 2003 to 2021, and shows slightly higher amounts in recent years.
The BBC asks if climate change is putting potatoes at risk by warmer weather. Instead of turning a British agricultural success story into the usual drivelling climate scare that lacks historical and ecological context, the BBC could focus on the excellent prospects for the ‘humble’ spud.
Earlier this year, Qu Dongyu, the Director-General of the UN Food and agricultural Organisation, told the 11th World Potato Congress that total production of the crop could double in the next decade. It is not just the British who love potatoes. They are the world’s third most important food crop, and are consumed by billions of people. Apparently, they generate fewer greenhouse gases than other crops, if that should guide your dietary choices, and are grown around the world in a wide variety of different climates – even rainy, chilly Scotland.
Chris Morrison is the Daily Sceptic’s Environment Editor.
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Just to mention this again: Averaging temperatures from temperature measurement stations in different locations is nonsense. The individual measurements are not approximations of a single quantity with varying amounts of (randomly distributed) errors but measurements of different quantities. Temperature rises in Heathrow mean absolutely nothing for the Scottish highlands, in exactly the same way as snowfall in the Scottish highlands means nothing for winter in London with regards to snow.
And global ‘average’ is meaningless drivel. Averages of any kind don’t exist – average man or woman for instance – plus none of the measuring instruments are calibrated to a standard reference instrument, have varying degrees of accuracy depending on manufacture and age. Many measurements are converted from Fahrenheit to Celsius, and measurements are influenced by local conditions like jet wash at airports, building in cities.
I doubt the global ‘average’ is accurate to within 2C to 3C, yet we are going to keep temperatures to within 1.5C – how measured?
Stop asking awkward questions, JXB!
As I’ve described in more detail a couple of times: Averaging is a mathematical algorithm to reduce the amount randomly distributed error in multiple measurements of the same quantity (a so-called digital noise reduction filter). Averaging measurements of different quantities simply doesn’t make any (mathematical) sense.
They’re including data from 200 yrs ago for heavens sake!
You statement – it’s so obvious it frightens me how many people swallow the climate scare scam so willingly.
Some things lose their meaning when you average them. Temperature is one of those things. You can take a bunch of temperatures from different places and add them together and create some average or other, but the number you get isn’t actually the temperature of anything. It is just a statistic.
It’s just a meaningless number. You can as well calculate the average height of a couple by averaging the heights of all male and female people living in stable two-person relationships. Or the average amount of steel doctors in Bangladesh produce (divide steel production in t by number of doctors).
“Climate Change” is not necessarily linked to annual weather variations. That said, we do have occasional problems with peak temperatures and shortage of rain during growing seasons for spuds, at least in my allotment. Sometimes the plants protect themselves by not growing normally if it’s too hot, e.g. Generally, the yield varies a bit from year to year – not just due to temperature and water availability, but the amount of cloud cover, thus the number of “sunshine hours” for them. That varies a lot from year to year, if you look it up via this place: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/regional-values
A brilliant example of political data representation: The labelling suggests that everything is anomally different from the long-term averages. These are calculated over periods of 30 years which is geologically anything but long-term. A justification why these particular periods where chosen isn’t provided. Lastly – as usual – standard derivations for these averages aren’t published. Hence, it’s impossible to judge if the values labellled as anomalies are actually outside of the range of usual fluctuations, ie, if they’re really anomalies.
Climate can only realistically be considered over periods of thousands, if not tens of thousands of years.
Some temps around the world have cooled since the 1880s. There is no ‘global temp’ or ‘global climate’, certainly not caused by plant food or Co2 which is a rounding error trace chemical 95% emitted by Gaia.
Call Climatic Catastrophism what it is – Green Fascism. Zero Science. Plenty of coercion and propaganda and of course, most importantly, trillions of dollars at stake and unlimited control over the sheeple who showed themselves so utterly compliant and ignorant during the Rona fascism.
I’ve often asked people exactly how “global average surface temperature” is relevant to anyone (aside from people who seem to have a fetish for calculating averages of things).
Anybody stupid enough to watch the BBC deserve all the fear that the organisation generates. It is now a parody of a news outlet. Any decent government would have hauled in the DG for a severe talking to, but no.
Proof, as if it were needed, of the sheer contempt those residing in Westminster have for the people of these islands.
This is what we’re being reduced to: mocking state propaganda.
I remember hearing stories that that’s how life was in the former USSR. People were just terribly cynical about any official news, knowing full well it was just a load of b***ocks. Only useful as an indicator of what they wanted you to think (and therefore most likely to induce you think the exact opposite.)
So yeah, I guess we’re going to have bumper potato crops in the coming years…
In a similar fashion, that’s how it was in other parts of the world, at least before this kit was developed. E.g. I can remember what the view of the world in the USA via the usual media was in the early 1990s. No shortage of propaganda there, that’s for sure.
Soon it will be so hot that the potatoes will come ready boiled!
or we can start growing sweet potatoes which are rather more nutritious I believe. Cant wait for ‘global warming’ to increase so we can start growing a lot more sub tropical fruit and veg!!
BBC Climate Scare No Mashed Potatoes
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Coming up soon: “unprecedented” flooding in York and Tewkesbury, just in time for COP27?
Following hard on the heels of unprecedented drought in York and Tewkesbury this Summer.
Don’t forget Muchelney and the Somerset Levels. They need some coverage, too.
Pssst, don’t tell anyone that they used to be underwater (being below sea level) before Dutch engineers drained them.
It’s a bit like Venice… all those tourists desperate to “do Venice” before it disappears for good under “rising sea levels”.
Pssst, don’t tell them that Venice is actually sinking.
IIRC the Somerset Level flooding was deliberately arranged by the Department of the Environment in order to comply with some EU Wetlands Directive. It also fitted in with Ghosh’s plans to extend a wading bird sanctuary. I don’t know if these plans were reversed after Brexit, but at least some dredging was started. http://eureferendum.com/blogview.php?blogno=84737
A fair bit of it was made worse by not doing the maintenance, to save cash. A lot was done to dredge out the silt from the spillways etc, and some new pumping stations were installed as well.
Meanwhile we need to “do Jakarta” before it disappears. It is sinking at 10 cm per YEAR. The BBC report this, but then segue on to the obligatory message about “coastal cities across the world are affected because of rising sea levels caused by climate change”, thus confusing the casual reader into thinking that Jakarta flooding is caused by sea-level rise (which is about a thirtieth of that rate, and in any case excludes Alaska and anywhere else where level is dropping), rather than by tectonic activity or groundwater abstraction.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-44636934
I was recently in Morocco, they grow a lot of potatoes.
That’s a conspiracy theory!
Different kinds of potatoes thrive in different environments. I seem to remeber that it was cold, damp summers that allowed the potato blight in Ireland to spread, thus causing the Irish Famine.
I grow patatas in SW France where average temps must surely exceed those of UK – success depends on rainfall, which must correspond with temperature, but planting earlier in the year is a simple way of working with higher peak summer temperatures.
We certainly had more than 60 days peaking at or greater than 25 deg C
But NB. there is a valid concern for production of seed potatoes which is best done in cooler conditions than those suitable for main cropping
Most of the certified seed potatoes in the UK are grown in Scotland – at least, the ones I buy each year in southern England are.
Much potato farming in the UK depends on applied fertilizers and irrigation. By contrast I am now writing this following a tea including a splendid pan of markies potatoes grown in our garden this year. Our veg patch was compacted shale but we have hugely improved it with deep digging, stone removal and huge amounts of organic matter. We did not irrigate the potatoes but they merrily grew through the 2 heat waves, presumably drawing moisture from the deep, moisture rich soil and subsequently produced plenty of potatoes.
It is our modern industrial farming systems that leave us susceptible to the minor whims of climate. There is a growing interest in regenerative farming and In my view that is to be applauded, if you have a regenerative farming system and grow your potatoes in sustainable organic rich healthy soil then you should find your crops are more resilient to withstand the ups and downs of our ever fluctuating climate.
‘Much potato farming in the UK depends on applied fertilizers and irrigation’
‘Depends on’ = the long term professional experts in the field, ie the relevant farmers, have chosen to make use of these methods to increase or maintain overall yields taking weather variations into account.
What makes you feel that your own obviously hugely more limited and less commercially crucial garden-based experience and knowledge of potato growing is better than theirs;
Or to put this another way if ‘regenerative’, ‘organic’ etc methods really are superior, why aren’t they already universally used in the industry?
Re ‘It is our modern industrial farming systems that leave us susceptible to the minor whims of climate’
How does this alleged ‘susceptibility’ relate to the generally consistent / recently slightly rising yield rates shown in the relevant graph above?
The whole Green philosophy and agenda is already causing catastrophic economic and social problems, including making food supplies increasingly expensive and limited.
Switching farming wholescale over to the sort of labour, land and resource intensive organic model that you recommend would lead to 1930s – 50s Soviet / Communist China levels of mass starvation.
Agreed, but what Steve-Devon is doing is being self-sufficient: something of interest to anyone who would be more free than most who have completely lost touch with reality and are at the mercy of the “system”.
Not ‘the whole’ green philosophy, NO ! Current intensive farming methods based on flattening hedgerows and agro-chemical usage have provided for and enabled mass welfare and population increases globally, but this is not sustainable – for reasons other than global warming.
The (pale) green agenda is proposing cuts to agro chemical usage and rewilding of grazing land, but these politics have no deep concern for nature and the environment; rather they will take land surface away from the many and concentrate it into the hands of a few corporatocrats, who will still need and use agro chemicals – essential to mechanised and automated working methods.
Deep green farming methods (regen) will not feed ‘everyone’, but they will be sustainable and will distribute land management amongst the many. These methods will not depend on and fatten corporate power. Such methods are more labour intensive and would give employ to many who are currently unemployed. Such employ is currently unfashionable as groupthink persuades farmers to become technicians, or even lab scientists.
Climate is not my expertise, but I am getting utterly confused by all the mixed messages even on this site.
Global warming? At one point it was said there was no global warming. Then the global warming was not as bad as predicted.
The MSM went from global warming to climate change and appears to be back at global warming.
So is there no answer to this?
When everything that happens or you claim is going to happen because of your theory then you are no longer dealing in science. You can make as many pronouncements as you like, but pronouncements are NOT science, and models full of assumptions that cannot be falsified are NOT science
Every year except this one I’ve planted potatoes. I’ve always watered them religiously.
Some must have evaded capture last year and just grew. No watering, high temperatures, I left them to it.
Got best crop ever.
Will this highly dubious research qualify the James Hutton Research Institute for a slug of tax payers money? Follow the money and there you will find The Science.
Yes certainly research funding was at the core of that wonky potato research. Thought your final chart could do with a label on the x axis. I also would say that the trend is subject to the spuds status as a “Giffen good” whereby demand for such commodities can increase as the price increases subject to the availability of substitutes.
Anyway Chris did some digging on the “third of Pakistan” flooding claim recently.. I think you said the figure was spouted by a local govt official and repeated by climate activists. journalists (same thing). You suggested that the satellite record showed 8%. Any chance you could revisit as this nonsense figure is being repeated continually as global leaders jet off to (climate) Sham El-Sheik.