Not long after Russian tanks rolled across the border into Ukraine, pollsters reported the ‘surprising’ result that most Russians supported the ‘special military operation’. I say ‘surprising’ because some commentators assumed Russians would share the views of Westerners.
But that was before the withdrawal from Kiev; the assassination of Darya Dugin; the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines; the Ukrainian counter-offensive in Kharkiv; and most importantly, the announcement of partial mobilisation.
Faced with the prospect that they or their loved ones might be sent to the frontlines, do Russians still support the war? According to two respected pollsters, the answer appears to be ‘yes’.
The Levada Center is an independent polling organisation, which provides the “most reputable public opinion data available in Russia”. Each month since March, they have asked a representative sample of Russians whether they “personally support the action of the Russian military forces in Ukraine”. Results are shown below.
The top bar is for March; the bottom bar is for September. As you can see, there was a slight drop-off in support in April. But since then, support has remained steady at 70–75% of the population.
Notably, the fall in support after the announcement of partial mobilisation – i.e., from August to September – was only 4 percentage points. So this event barely dented public opinion. (The latest poll was carried out between 22nd and 28th September, whereas mobilisation was announced on 21st September.)
Another respected pollster, Russia Watcher, has found the same thing. Every day since 19th May, a group of Princeton academics has been asking Russians whether they support the ‘special military operation’. Results are shown below.
Remarkably, support has fallen only 1 percentage since the announcement of partial mobilisation, and currently stands at 73%. Recall that the bigger drop seen in Levada’s figures came in April, before Russia Watcher’s survey began.
The fact that Levada and Russia Watcher’s results are almost identical is particularly noteworthy given that the pollsters rely on quite different methods. Levada’s survey involves being interviewed in one’s home. Russia Watcher’s involves clicking an ad and then filling out a survey online.
As I noted back in April, however, it’s possible that support for the war is overstated. After all, respondents might be scared to reveal their true beliefs, even in ostensibly ‘anonymous’ surveys.
In my earlier article, I cited a list experiment (a technique designed to elicit respondents’ true beliefs) that found support for the war was overstated by about 15 percentage points. On the other hand, the academics behind Russia Watcher say they’ve done their own list experiments, and “have not been able to find evidence” that respondents are lying.
It’s unclear what accounts for this difference. Suffice it to say that opinion polls may overstate support, though not by a huge amount.
Despite everything that’s happened since February, more than 70% of Russians still say they support the war. This change could change, of course, if or when large numbers of mobilised troops come home in body bags.
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A balding man should never wear a skin coloured turtleneck. Too much like a….
Hmm downvotes from the fashion police. I guess turtlenecks are in
“Despite everything that’s happened since February, more than 70% of Russians still say they support the war. “
On the contrary it’s because of everything that’s happened since February that Russians and many many others approve of Russian military action. The West constant lies, provocations, insults and most of all active and aggressive involvement in the conflict up to and including the stated intent of Regime change only serve to anger and solidify opposition support.
I would feel exactly the same if I were Russian, demonised because of my nationality and sanctioned remorselessly.
Really not surprising at all…
Putin and Russia (…and China for that matter)…have huge support outside of the ‘western’ hemisphere…which includes the greater part of the world’s population…
A recent study from Cambridge University ‘A World Divided’ Russia, China and the West….showed that “Russia’s international influence lies outside of the West. 75% of respondents in South Asia, 68% in Francophone Africa, 62% in Southeast Asia con- tinue to view the country positively in spite of the events of this year.”
Part of the problem with the West is that we tend to think that we are the only important people in the world….and that only our opinions matters…?
…and I don’t think there’s much point in calling them sanctions..it’s worse than that, it’s an all out economic attack on Russia…and I believe it is illegal under International Law……but the USA…not happy with dragging Europe into economic meltdown over Russia, now wants them to ‘sanction’ China in the same way…?!
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2022-10-31/us-asks-europe-to-consider-export-controls-on-china
I can’t know what is going to happen, but there is a lot of talk now about a ‘new’ Cold War, with China and Russia turning towards the Global South and away from Europe and the West, …..I think this would be a tragedy…..and I think we would be left on the ‘wrong’ side…..
Unfortunate we already are on the ‘wrong’ side and nothing about the political shenanigans in our election processes nor in our regulated and controlled media, nor in the various globalist agenda laws being forced through our Western legislatures suggest things are going to change.
Its what imagine it would be like as a Jew in 1934 Germany. I’m still in the deer in the headlights stage when I should probably be making plans to live in sub Saharan Africa or Central Asia or South America.
..I agree..in this instance I meant the wrong side of the new iron curtain, but I get your point.
…When they meet up in the next couple of weeks at Cop27 (sigh..)
will they discuss making our lives any better..any more free, or democratic? No, they will just be discussing ways to make our lives even more like the restrictive China they moan on about, but seem to want to emulate…
The real question is, why isn’t there a leader in the Western World who is as popular with his people?
Because when they make it far enough to vote for them they jigger around with the voting machines.
Definitely in Trump 2020, probably in Bolsenaro 2022.
(Not that I think Trump was great, after all he was the master of Operation Warp Speed and still thinks Jabs are great.)
It’s simple human nature. We are to an extent pack animals – pack monkeys. Even if your leader is unpopular, when there is physical confrontation, people band are inclined to band together. Look at how Margaret Thatcher gained a huge popularity boost because of the Falkland’s War (not saying she was unpopular, but her popularity ratings massively increased). Tony Blair observed that and when he later came to power, IMO he saw the invasion of Iraq as holding potential to provide his Maggie moment and too eagerly grasped it as an “opportunity.”
Weird then that it isn’t working in that way for Biden?
I’d be more interested in surveys of support for the war in Western Europe; because it’s having, and is going to have, appalling consequences for ordinary people as their nations’ economies collapse.
Unsurprising, given Putin’s control of the media. Just think of the support for Lockdown during Covid.
While that may or may not be true..why would we care so much what the problem is in Russia?
There are no independent MSM operating in the UK as far as I can see..which is more of a problem for us isn’t it?
Isn’t it also more of a problem for us that all media from Russia has been banned by our supposedly democratic Government?
I don’t see any real differences anymore……Our own media is so propagandised that it’s barely worth reading…We really can’t throw stones at anyone else….!!