In a previous article, I estimated the number of Russian soldiers killed up to September 9th as 19,546. This figure includes the regular Russian armed forces, the Wagner mercenaries and the two separatist militias. It equates to an average rate of 99 men killed per day over the first 197 days of the war.
Assuming the death rate has remained roughly constant since September 9th, today’s total would be 24,496 – or just under 25,000.
How many Ukrainian soldiers have been killed? This is much harder to estimate. One of the key sources for estimating Russian military deaths is a database compiled by Mediazona and the BBC News Russian Service, which is based on obituaries and social media posts. No such database exists for Ukrainian military deaths.
Western media have shown far less interest in estimating Ukrainian losses, presumably because they’re concerned about undermining morale. While several Western intelligence agencies have offered estimates of total Russian losses, none – so far as I’m aware – has offered an estimate of total Ukrainian losses.
The latest ‘official’ figure I’m aware of is from August 22nd, when General Valeriy Zaluzhnyi stated that 9,000 Ukrainian soldiers had died. Yet we should be sceptical of this figure: two months earlier, Presidential adviser Oleksiy Arestovych stated that 10,000 had died by June 3rd.
On the other hand, Russian Defence Minister Sergey Shoigu claimed on September 21st that Russian forces had killed 61,207 Ukrainian soldiers – which would equate to 72,335 today. This is almost certainly an overestimate for the simple reason that Russia has an incentive to exaggerate Ukrainian losses, the better to bolster its own morale.
In my article on Russian casualties, I concluded that the Ukrainians have been exaggerating their enemy’s losses. And there’s no reason to believe the Russians would act differently. (They’ve been understating their own losses, for example.)
So how many Ukrainian soldiers have died? One method is to extrapolate based on all the estimates of daily deaths that have been reported by Ukrainian officials.
On May 22nd, Zelensky gave the number of daily deaths as 50-100. On June 1st, he gave the number as 60-100. On June 8th, Arestovych gave the number as 150. On June 9th, Mykhaylo Podolyak gave the number as 100-200. The same day, Oleksii Reznikov gave the number as 100. And on June 15th, David Arakhamia gave the number as 200-500.
Taking the midpoint of each estimate and then averaging yields a figure of 151. Multiplying by the number of days since the war started yields a total of 37,256.
There are two main issues with this figure. First, the number of men killed per day might not be constant over time. All the estimates of daily deaths were from the period encompassing late May to mid June. Going by estimates of Russian losses, this period was somewhat less deadly than the first two months of the war.
The death rate for the regular Russian armed forces was about twice as high during that period as it was over the summer.
And the same is true for the DPR militia. (According to the Economist, the DPR militia “have faithfully documented their casualties”. I obtained monthly estimates using archived versions of the Wikipedia page “Casualties of the Russo-Ukrainian War”.)
If the Ukrainian armed forces also sustained higher death rates during the first two months of the war, then 37,256 may be an underestimate. Assuming the death rate was twice as high for the period up to 30th April yields a total of 47,112.
On the other hand, some observers have argued that Russian losses were particularly high during that period because of the tactics they were employing (e.g., moving large columns of armour along main roads).
The second issue with the figure above is that it is based on the midpoint of the daily death estimates. Given that officials might be inclined to understate losses for the sake of morale, it is perhaps more reasonable to use the maximum of the ranges reported. Doing so yields a total of 47,341.
Overall, the Ukrainian armed forces may have lost between 37,000 and 47,000 men up to October 29th. These figures do not include soldiers missing in action or those taken prisoner.
To join in with the discussion please make a donation to The Daily Sceptic.
Profanity and abuse will be removed and may lead to a permanent ban.
You need to contextualise the figures you use, which are from the period of heavy fighting during the Battle of Sievierodonetsk. Also, I would seriously question Arakhamia’s outlying figure of 500 per day. If you take that out, it averages 101, which is Reznikov’s number for the fighting during that period – and being the Minister of Defence, he ought to have the best information.
As for Russian deaths, general consensus amongst military types seems to be that one can take 10-20% off Ukraine’s figure of 71k, i.e. about 60k (e.g., Justin Bronk suggests this, while nevertheless strongly disputing the claimed numbers of aircraft lost). Given the obvious fact that Putin needed to mobilise a lot of troops (82,000 or possibly many more) to fill the gaps, and they’re no longer able to conduct offensive operations, this seems eminently plausible.
You may be right that 151 per day is too high, although I also gave a reason why it might be too low. As I said, the number of Ukrainian deaths is much harder to estimate.
As to the number of Russian deaths, the CIA estimated 15,000 on 20th July – which is highly consistent with my estimate of 20,000 by 9th September.
The early CIA figure is just one estimate which some consider quite dubious – there have been disagreements over that. Ben Wallace said on 5th September that the figure was 25k (equating to ~32k today), which is still way lower than the Ukrainian government estimate, but I tend to take all third party estimates with considerable scepticism, since it must be extremely difficult to make such estimates without the kind of knowledge that only low-level unit commanders could realistically provide up the chain of command on a day-to-day basis. I don’t imagine either the MoD or the CIA are trying to count the dead using satellite imagery – it’s probably just a collection of educated guessess based on the apparent scale of combat in various parts of the country.
The database compiled by Mediazona and the BBC News Russian service uses a clear and rigorous methodology. Its creators have said it may underestimate the true count by 40–60%. Which would mean total losses for the regular Russian armed forces are around 10,800.
The Economist claims the DPR militia “have faithfully documented their casualties”. Their total losses stand at 3,526.
Losses for the LPR militia and the Wagner mercenaries are harder to estimate. But it seems unlikely they total more than 11,000.
Attempts like those of Mediazona to estimate casualties using publicly available data such as “social media posts by relatives, reports in local media, and statements of the local authorities” would only get a fraction of the true figure, not 2/3rds of it in my opinion.
The Frenchman Paul Valéry said that war was a massacre of people who do not know each other for the benefit of people who know each other but do not massacre each other.
Back in the real world they are likely losing 20.000 a month. At one point the Uke’s were so desperate for men they conscripted women and criminals. They have bled through over 100 K in dead with 2-3x that injured. They outnumber Vlad the Droner’s forces by about 5:1 yet still cannot make any appreciable gains. If Vlad the PecFlexer’s forces were fully deployed, the Uke’s would be shattered in 2 months. Not even the endless American billions/trillions to the corrupt regime will save them. If the 2nd coming of Chinghis Khan fought like the Americans, the entire Uketopia would be rubble from endless carpet bombing the width and breadth of the country. Criminal xi Biden the election thieving money laundering pedo would have already declared victory on an aircraft carrrier off of San Diego. The Uke’s should be happy the Russians don’t fight like the criminal Americans.
“Run off pharma troll for stab #12 and hopefully you can contract myocarditis or similar and then tell us it was the too-many-eggs-syndrome-nothing to do with the stabs. I hear from the speed of science people, that Stab 17 is the real game changer. Just hang on for that.”
Why don’t you run along and do the same, you nasty piece of sh*t!
What is the point of this speculation. The answer in all cases is too many.
What I have read in alt-media streams is the UKrs have lost 100k dead, 2-3 time wounded.
The 300k currently being injected from RUS are actually being assigned in the main to roles not in the UKr theatre. Non-Theatre active RUS combat troops are being transferred (once replaced ) into the UKr theatre. Reason for this is in 2019, RUS went volunteer-only (non-conscript) and there was a deficit between out-going and in-coming resources.
Another issue probably lost….is who is operating all this latest NATO tech we have sent the Ukr? Because it cant be the UKrs given they have no training or familiarity and active fighting at the same time? How many loved ones in NATO countries are receiving that door-knock stating their husbands and sons were killed in a training accident? We dont here that at all.
I aint picking sides. Im trying to balance competing competent reports from the West and the alt-media. If UKr was kicking RUS butts, why so much equipment (Billions), and why the request for more? Dont make sense? I strongly suspect what we are being told is 180 from the real truth?
Reports I have read indicate that 80,000 of the recent intake have already been embedded with existing front line units throughout Ukraine . It is speculation on my part that these troops are replacing ones who left at the end of their 6 month extended contract.
It makes sense to mix new and experienced troops so that the new troops can benefit from the front-line experience of their compatriots.
Who is operating all the NATO tech? I suspect NATO troops..that’s why it’s not beyond the realms of possibility that the UK really were operating the drones used in the Black Sea…
As you say, it’s hard to train people up quickly for these things….
As to how many troops, a few weeks ago I think it was the Washington Post said for every one Russian soldier killed or injured, five Ukrainian soldiers were killed or injured…..so a lot.
About two months ago Antony Blinken and LLoyd Austin went to Ukraine and vowed to “fight Russia to the last Ukrainian”…..I think we can safely say that to gain their own ends, they’ll also keep going to the last European as well…..
It concerns me when individuals use their status when they make personal comments. It is fair enough that the author of the piece identifies himself as the author, but when someone who happens to be an administrator identifies himself as such, when making comments that are nothing to do with administration, then I judge this as trying to gain some false authority for their view.
My guess is that it’s an automatic feature of the software they use to build and maintain the site.
Exactly. But it’s a fair point, and I’ll see if I can change it.
Thank you, Ian.
That was my suspicion too, however nothing stops someone setting up a private account. It is not even that payment is mandatory before comments are permitted
So both sides are underestimating their losses and overestimating the losses of their opponents. Gosh, who would have guessed that!!