140725
  • Log in
The Daily Sceptic
No Result
View All Result
  • Articles
  • About
  • Archive
    • ARCHIVE
    • NEWS ROUND-UPS
  • Forum
  • Donate
  • Newsletter
The Daily Sceptic
No Result
View All Result

How Many Ukrainian Soldiers Have Died in the War?

by Noah Carl
30 October 2022 10:21 AM

In a previous article, I estimated the number of Russian soldiers killed up to September 9th as 19,546. This figure includes the regular Russian armed forces, the Wagner mercenaries and the two separatist militias. It equates to an average rate of 99 men killed per day over the first 197 days of the war.

Assuming the death rate has remained roughly constant since September 9th, today’s total would be 24,496 – or just under 25,000.

How many Ukrainian soldiers have been killed? This is much harder to estimate. One of the key sources for estimating Russian military deaths is a database compiled by Mediazona and the BBC News Russian Service, which is based on obituaries and social media posts. No such database exists for Ukrainian military deaths.

Western media have shown far less interest in estimating Ukrainian losses, presumably because they’re concerned about undermining morale. While several Western intelligence agencies have offered estimates of total Russian losses, none – so far as I’m aware – has offered an estimate of total Ukrainian losses.

The latest ‘official’ figure I’m aware of is from August 22nd, when General Valeriy Zaluzhnyi stated that 9,000 Ukrainian soldiers had died. Yet we should be sceptical of this figure: two months earlier, Presidential adviser Oleksiy Arestovych stated that 10,000 had died by June 3rd.

On the other hand, Russian Defence Minister Sergey Shoigu claimed on September 21st that Russian forces had killed 61,207 Ukrainian soldiers – which would equate to 72,335 today. This is almost certainly an overestimate for the simple reason that Russia has an incentive to exaggerate Ukrainian losses, the better to bolster its own morale.

In my article on Russian casualties, I concluded that the Ukrainians have been exaggerating their enemy’s losses. And there’s no reason to believe the Russians would act differently. (They’ve been understating their own losses, for example.)

So how many Ukrainian soldiers have died? One method is to extrapolate based on all the estimates of daily deaths that have been reported by Ukrainian officials.

On May 22nd, Zelensky gave the number of daily deaths as 50-100. On June 1st, he gave the number as 60-100. On June 8th, Arestovych gave the number as 150. On June 9th, Mykhaylo Podolyak gave the number as 100-200. The same day, Oleksii Reznikov gave the number as 100. And on June 15th, David Arakhamia gave the number as 200-500.

Taking the midpoint of each estimate and then averaging yields a figure of 151. Multiplying by the number of days since the war started yields a total of 37,256.

There are two main issues with this figure. First, the number of men killed per day might not be constant over time. All the estimates of daily deaths were from the period encompassing late May to mid June. Going by estimates of Russian losses, this period was somewhat less deadly than the first two months of the war.

The death rate for the regular Russian armed forces was about twice as high during that period as it was over the summer.

Number of daily Russian military deaths. The last few weeks are incomplete.

And the same is true for the DPR militia. (According to the Economist, the DPR militia “have faithfully documented their casualties”. I obtained monthly estimates using archived versions of the Wikipedia page “Casualties of the Russo-Ukrainian War”.)

Average death rate for DPR soldiers by month.

If the Ukrainian armed forces also sustained higher death rates during the first two months of the war, then 37,256 may be an underestimate. Assuming the death rate was twice as high for the period up to 30th April yields a total of 47,112.

On the other hand, some observers have argued that Russian losses were particularly high during that period because of the tactics they were employing (e.g., moving large columns of armour along main roads).

The second issue with the figure above is that it is based on the midpoint of the daily death estimates. Given that officials might be inclined to understate losses for the sake of morale, it is perhaps more reasonable to use the maximum of the ranges reported. Doing so yields a total of 47,341.

Overall, the Ukrainian armed forces may have lost between 37,000 and 47,000 men up to October 29th. These figures do not include soldiers missing in action or those taken prisoner.

Tags: DeathsRussiaUkraine

Donate

We depend on your donations to keep this site going. Please give what you can.

Donate Today

Comment on this Article

You’ll need to set up an account to comment if you don’t already have one. We ask for a minimum donation of £5 if you'd like to make a comment or post in our Forums.

Sign Up
Previous Post

Chinese Government Began COVID-19 Vaccine Research “No Later Than November 2019”, Say Experts

Next Post

Man Who Loved to Run Now Can Barely Walk Due to AstraZeneca Vaccine

Subscribe
Login
Notify of
Please log in to comment

Profanity and abuse will be removed and may lead to a permanent ban.

18 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments

NEWSLETTER

View today’s newsletter

To receive our latest news in the form of a daily email, enter your details here:

 

DONATE

PODCAST

Nick Dixon and Toby Young Talk About the ‘Far Right’ Unrest in Dublin, Geert Wilders Winning in the Netherlands and Tommy Robinson Getting Arrested at the March Against Antisemitism

by Will Jones
28 November 2023
9

LISTED ARTICLES

  • Most Read
  • Most Commented
  • Editors Picks

News Round-Up

4 December 2023
by Richard Eldred

New Zealand Whistleblower Data Leak Links Covid Vaccine to Deaths: The Evidence

4 December 2023
by Igor Chudov

I’ve Seen Britain’s Future – and it’s a Post-Industrial Boneyard Called Stratford

4 December 2023
by J Sorel

“No Science Out There” That Says Phasing Out Fossil Fuels is Necessary to Stop Global Warming, Says UAE Host of COP28

3 December 2023
by Richard Eldred

When Irish Eyes Are Opened: The Dublin Riot and the Booker Prize

4 December 2023
by Steven Tucker

News Round-Up

30

BBC Licence Fee £15 Increase Too High, Culture Secretary Says

20

Someone Please Tell Mr. Hancock and the Department of Health About ‘Cohorting’

19

I’ve Seen Britain’s Future – and it’s a Post-Industrial Boneyard Called Stratford

16

Tory MP Bids to Overturn Sadiq Khan’s Ulez Expansion as It Is Revealed It Generated £5.3 Million in Its First Week

13

When Irish Eyes Are Opened: The Dublin Riot and the Booker Prize

4 December 2023
by Steven Tucker

New Zealand Whistleblower Data Leak Links Covid Vaccine to Deaths: The Evidence

4 December 2023
by Igor Chudov

Someone Please Tell Mr. Hancock and the Department of Health About ‘Cohorting’

4 December 2023
by Dr David Livermore

I’ve Seen Britain’s Future – and it’s a Post-Industrial Boneyard Called Stratford

4 December 2023
by J Sorel

Government Officials Flip-Flopping on the Efficacy of Masks Exposed in the Hallett Inquiry

3 December 2023
by Prof Carl Heneghan and Dr Tom Jefferson

POSTS BY DATE

October 2022
M T W T F S S
 12
3456789
10111213141516
17181920212223
24252627282930
31  
« Sep   Nov »

SOCIAL LINKS

Free Speech Union
  • Home
  • About us
  • Donate
  • Privacy Policy

Facebook

Twitter

Instagram

RSS

Subscribe to our newsletter

© Skeptics Ltd.

No Result
View All Result
  • Articles
  • About
  • Archive
    • ARCHIVE
    • NEWS ROUND-UPS
  • Forum
  • Donate
  • Newsletter

© Skeptics Ltd.

Welcome Back!

Login to your account below

Forgotten Password?

Create New Account!

Please note: To be able to comment on our articles you'll need to be a registered donor

Already have an account?
Please click here to login Log In

Retrieve your password

Please enter your username or email address to reset your password.

Log In
wpDiscuz
You are going to send email to

Move Comment