I was pointed recently to a study from Sweden which looks at all-cause death rates by vaccination status – something very few studies do. Published in July, it compares all-cause mortality in those who had three and those who had four vaccine doses among both over-80s and care home residents in Sweden.
The results are, to be blunt, incredible, which is to say, they’re not credible. They purport to show that compared to three doses, a fourth vaccine dose reduces all-cause mortality by a massive 71% in the over-80s and 39% in care home residents during the first two months after inoculation. Let me say that again: the study is claiming that in the over-80s a fourth vaccine dose cuts deaths from all causes (heart disease, dementia, cancer etc., as well as Covid) by 71%, i.e., over two thirds. If true, the vaccine is truly a wonder drug.
Let’s take a closer look at why these are not credible figures. (If you want to skip the maths, go straight to the paragraph that starts “To repeat”.)
According to the latest report from the UKHSA, vaccine effectiveness (VE) in over-50s against death with Omicron is estimated as:
- Dose 2 at 40+ weeks: 52%
- Dose 3 at 2-4 weeks: 85%
- Dose 3 at 15-19 weeks: 75%
- Dose 3 at 25-39 weeks: 63%
For our calculations we need to make a couple of assumptions; I’ll explain why I think they’re fair. First, we need to assume that these figures for the third dose will be very similar for the fourth dose. This is likely to be correct as we can see that the third dose is declining to a similar level as the second dose over a similar time period, so the next dose will likely behave similarly. Second, since in Sweden fourth doses were stipulated to be given at least four months after the third dose, we will assume that three-dosers during the study period are in the 15-19 week category, i.e., they have a VE against Covid death of 75%. We will also assume the VE for four-dosers against death in the immediate post-jab period is 85%, since that is what it was for the third dose.
This allows us to calculate that the fourth dose cuts Covid deaths in the over-50s by 40% compared to dose 3. (This is because dose 3 cuts deaths to 0.25 of their unvaccinated level, dose 4 cuts them to 0.15 of that level, and 0.15 is 40% less than 0.25.) I note that UKHSA actually gives direct VE estimates for dose 4 versus dose 3 against hospitalisation, and these indicate our estimates against Covid death look about right. Of course, this all assumes that UKHSA VE estimates are accurate; in reality, as they’re from a Government agency they’re probably skewed towards being supportive of the vaccines, so we can assume our calculations here are conservative estimates which grant a higher VE than may be the case in reality.
Next, ONS data show that in the pre-vaccine and pre-Omicron era (when there was little natural immunity) around 40% of total deaths during Covid waves were Covid deaths (e.g. the proportion was 37% Covid deaths in April 2020 and 46% in January 2021). I’m using figures for deaths with Covid rather than from Covid for consistency with the UKHSA VE estimates.
We’ve seen that three doses are 75% effective against Covid death, so this cuts the number of Covid deaths in the three-dose population down to 10% of the original number of deaths. If we assume Omicron is half as lethal and taking into account the reduction to the overall number of deaths, this leaves Covid deaths making up around 8% of all deaths in three-dosers during Omicron waves. (This is not far off the observed figure of 12% of deaths in January 2022 in England being Covid deaths, which also includes the unvaccinated.)
Since we’ve calculated that dose 4 prevents 40% of these deaths in three-dosers, we can now calculate that dose 4 reduces the total number of deaths (from all causes) in four-dosers by around 3% (40% of 8%). Assuming it has no effect on the rest of the deaths from other causes, this is a VE against all-cause mortality of 3%.
How then can the Swedish study claim that a fourth dose (compared to three doses) reduces all-cause mortality by 71% in the over-80s and 39% in care home residents during the first two months after vaccination?
To repeat: on UKHSA data, a booster dose during Omicron reduced Covid deaths in the over-50s by 40%, which translates to a reduction in all-cause deaths of just 3% (because Covid deaths make up just 8% of the overall deaths in the three-dosers). Yet the Swedish study finds a reduction in all-cause deaths in the over-80s of 71% and in care home residents of 39%. How can 3% in over-50s in England become 71% in over-80s in Sweden?
There’s clearly something wrong here. A vaccine booster which reduces Covid deaths by 40% at most cannot reduce all-cause mortality by 71% when Covid deaths make up such a small portion of overall deaths. It would imply that the vaccine booster is massively cutting deaths from all causes, including heart deaths, dementia deaths, cancer deaths and so on, even more than it’s cutting Covid deaths. There’s no evidence of this at all. The opposite in fact: Covid waves since Delta have been accompanied by significant numbers of excess non-Covid deaths, many of which in England at least are in the over-75s age group, the cohort which received a fourth vaccine dose in spring. (It’s true that Sweden didn’t have excess deaths during the study period, but neither did it have a Covid wave – it skipped the BA.2 wave somehow – and like other countries it has had excess non-Covid deaths during recent Covid waves.)
So the study’s claim that deaths among fourth-dosers are lower by over two thirds doesn’t stack up at all. The authors note: “Although third-dose recipients had similar baseline characteristics as fourth-dose recipients, some third-dose recipients likely did not receive the fourth dose because of deteriorating health that was not captured by the baseline characteristics.” Could this ‘healthy vaccinee’ effect explain it? It’s hard to tell; it’s an awfully large effect. Have the researchers somehow excluded all those most likely to die in the four-dose group and included all those most likely to die in the three-dose group?
Either way, this study clearly cannot be relied on to tell us anything about the effect of vaccination on all-cause mortality. Which is a shame, as I had hoped that once researchers turned their attention to this question we would quickly get some answers on the overall benefits of the vaccines. Instead, it appears that the answers we get make no sense at all.
It only goes to show that what we need is the full data – mortality data broken down by cause, age group, vaccination status, prior infection status and underlying conditions, individualised as far as is consistent with anonymity – released so that it can be analysed properly, and obviously anomalous results like this Swedish study avoided.
Stop Press: An Emeritus Professor of epidemiology from the U.S. has got in touch to say he fully agrees with this critique, and adds:
1. Although they estimated VE at days 7-60, the K-M curves [the chart above] are shown since day 1. They diverge at the very beginning! We don’t expect any beneficial effect so quickly. That’s clear evidence for the ‘healthy vaccinee’ effect, i.e., clear evidence of confounding.
2. K-M curves are unadjusted, of course, but the data in the tables allow us to see what adjustment did. Comparing unadjusted VE (which can be computed by hand from the rates) to partially adjusted and then to ‘fully adjusted’, it seems that we observe some strengthening of the ‘beneficial effect’ following adjustment. That implies negative confounding i.e., fourth dose recipients were sicker to begin with, not healthier, so we didn’t see the ‘true benefit’ before adjustment. But I don’t think there was anywhere preferential vaccination of elderly or care home residents in worse mental or physical state. If anything, it was the opposite.
So, yes. Another useless study and another absurd claim.
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“Emails suggest ex-NY Gov. Andrew Cuomo launched COVID-19 memoir project in March 2020”
Well, well, well…
Sing:
What a bunch of fecking Eejits!
“We are trans and cis together”
Vomit inducing nonsense…
For the non local Norwich City Council has been Labour controlled for years .These tools do not represent the good people of Norfolk in the main .
Their local electorate are skewed by three huge public housing areas plus the University. Am I surprised ? No not really lol
“Labour council staff take the knee prompting row with Salford residents”
Another group of public servants mistaking their misplaced sense of compassion for the green light to ignore their duty to the people who pay their wages..
Mr Floyd didn’t really deserve a lot of compassion really, and the whole BLM movement has proven to be ‘scam whitey’, but there you go..
F-me, their not still taking the knee are they?
That’s so yesterday!
The picture in that link makes me
Someone please, help them to their feet, dust them off ,wash their clothes and give them a good meal! Their so lost and needy bless them, it makes me tear
up ! Chunts
The need to stop the WHO’s pandemic treaty and IHR amendments is getting more urgent by the minute.
Yesterday, the WHO appointed North Korea to its executive committee.
You could not make it up.
What could possibly go wrong?
Does anyone else feel the transition to Clown World is accelerating?
Hell yes, we all feel it! and its terrifying!
Just to add, I seriously feel the pain and frustration you do! This “new dawn” is frightening all of us who still possess our own brains!
Prof Kathleen Stock has written about her Oxford talk. *Spoiler* It was an all-round positive experience.
”Other supportive students in Oxford, neither feminist nor anti-feminist, just seemed fed up with being emotionally blackmailed into stifled silence by a small group of childish and histrionic narcissists — among which they doubtless would include the occasional lecturer. And from within each Union, the committee members responsible for inviting me were totally impressive, standing resolute against pressure and showing exemplary resilience in the face of harsh criticism from some peers.
In looking at some of the media coverage of my Oxford trip, it’s striking to me that certain journalists’ idea of balanced reporting is to interview, on one hand, Stock the supposedly offensive speaker, and on the other, students who say they feel threatened and frightened by my terrifying words. (The rough format goes as follows. Student: “I just feel exhausted constantly having to justify my existence every day!”. Interviewer: “What do you, Stock, say to the students who feel exhausted having to justify their existence every day?” Me, looking at said students, apparently with enough energy to drum and chant for hours: “Erm … I’m not sure. Maybe get their iron levels checked?”.)”
https://unherd.com/2023/06/the-oxford-kids-are-alright/
The recent World Health Assembly singles out Israel as a ”violator of human rights” and in true back to front, Clown World fashion, North Korea have the nerve to say this…
And check out the other countries condemning them. What a joke!
”North Korea, which was just elected to a 3-year term on on the WHO executive board, said it was “deeply concerned about the health conditions in the Occupied Palestinian Territory. The prolonged occupation, illegal settlement activity, and discriminatory practices continue to negatively impact the living conditions of the population.”
https://unwatch.org/whos-2023-assembly-once-again-singles-out-israel-as-violator-of-health-rights/
That is classic. North Korea of course known for respecting the health conditions and ensuring no discriminatory practices of its own population. Alarmingly, North Korea get a seat on the board of the WHO…what on earth could go wrong with that?
Mogs, your the fount of all knowledge! Can you run for prime minister/president in all countries? Your wisdom is so needed right now
Well I don’t know about that, but I feel ready to achieve my PhD in ‘Cutting and Pasting’.
Bless you, your a gem!
I wish I had your integrity
That’s sweet of you to say Dinger.
Kids holidays over here so got more down time..
..while I agree with you that it’s hypocritical..I also think, that in relation to Palestine, it’s not entirely wrong either.
If you read the article you note that the ‘’spokesperson’ they feature is from UN Watch..which is supposedly an independent NGO, but which has very strong financial ties with the American Jewish Committee… they mention Syria..but only in relation to Russia bombing it (over three years ago)..they don’t mention the current illegal occupation of the USA in Syria, nor the USA’s theft of their oil and grain, nor do they mention the stringent US sanctions that are crippling Syria, nor the constant bombing raids by Israel….they mention Afghanistan, but again no mention of the USA’s occupation, or sanctions, nor the fact that they stole and still refuse to release millions of dollars of Afghani money.
I’m not particularly trying to pick a side here, and I’m not anti-Israel…. but the West doesn’t allow ‘the rest’ a platform in general…and I’m not convinced they get a fair deal when it comes to battling against the might that is the USA and the West’s established constructs. There are real global changes happening in the world, as we can all see..I think they need to be addressed in a different way than just saying one set is always right, while one set is always wrong?!
Yes, I agree. Not defending Israel. Just the hypocrisy and sheer nerve of countries such Iran and N. Korea finger-wagging about mistreatment of citizenry elsewhere. Plus to highlight the fact N. Korea were actually *elected* by the WHO. I mean, as if we need further confirmation of just how big a criminal outfit and significant threat to democracy they are. But leaders in the West will sign over our sovereignty in a nanosecond regardless.
And it got picked up ATL, in record time..LOL!!
“We are trans and cis together” – new religion?
Remember also how some churches flew flags saying “thank you NHS”? That was like a new religion too.
As for “memory loss during lockdowns”: it’s what the tyranny is hoping for, that people will erase it from their minds, as if it never happened, and they will forgive the politicians in time for the next election, and the next plandemic (which the tyrants seem certain will happen). I have no intention of forgetting anything, from the locked playgrounds, to children locked in their homes behind their rainbows, to the “be a superhero” coercion to mask up and roll up your sleeve, and we must remind Parliament about these deeds on a regular basis. They must never be forgiven or forgotten.
Labour party members in parliament worked with Conservatives in drafting the Coronavirus Bill 2000. Both houses of parliament passed the Coronavirus Act 2000 without division. The Scottish parliament gave formal Consent to the UK-wide legislation without a vote on it.
Scum, the lot of them.
Agreed
Bang on! Here no,see no,say no! “Don’t mention the war, ….sorry…. vaccines!”
When the long sinuses blood clots stretch through their veins they may want an answer all of a sudden!
Seconded.
The FDA have just approved the new Pfizer RSV jab for 60+ year old, but if there’s one thing we’ve learnt ( we critical thinkers have learnt a lot, of course ) it’s that these claims of efficacy are totally bogus and not what they are widely touted in the media.
https://twitter.com/ITGuy1959/status/1664086303401558020
Placebos in medical trials have been eliminated & RRR used instead of ARR… Talk about gaming the system to achieve the desired outcome.
Rrr? Arr? Sorry I’m a bit thick, please explain
Relative Risk Reduction vs Actual Risk Reduction
RRR always gives a higher % than ARR thus making the product seem more effective. The covid injections we were told gave 95% protection. Dig down into the data & that was the difference between the ‘product’ & the placebo. Translate that into ARR & you get less than 1% ie not worth a damned thing!
All smoke & mirrors to dupe a population which is basically numerically illiterate.
Not thick, learning. We’re all learning on a daily basis.
Hope that this clarifies things for you
BB
…I still have a look at this short video every so often to remind me!!
For some reason it just won’t stick in my head!
Proff Norman Fenton….explaining relative risk v actual risk….
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UQlBZUc4Ao8
Andrea Jenkins should not display her inadequacy. What could the civil servants do if she arranged to meet in the nearest Spoons for a refillable coffee at £1.70 each.
“Climate protester left with block of tarmac stuck to his hand is jailed”
Leave him like that! Twat
Novak Djokovic almost always cheers me up. He’s annoying the French Minister for Sport, who one imagines is a good person to annoy: French Open 2023: Novak Djokovic stands by Kosovo message after criticism – BBC Sport
French sports minister Amelie Oudea-Castera said there needs to be a “principle of neutrality for the field of play”.
Oudea-Castera said she made a distinction for messages in support for Ukraine in the face of Russia’s invasion, adding that she did not put Kosovo and Ukraine “on the same level”.
So a nice bit of the usual Western hypocrisy then? It’s ‘neutral’ to be against Russia..but not Kosovo…do these people ever listen to themselves…??
Tennis community was happy for some players to express support for BLM…
““Black people were three times more likely to receive Covid fines in England and Wales” – Those in poorest areas were seven times more likely to be fined, finds research into how police used emergency powers, says the Guardian. Are these the first signs of remorse from the pro-lockdown paper?”
Of course not. It’ll be some “anti-racist” nonsense. If you were against lockdowns, why would you care who it affected most – surely you’re against them for everyone? It reminds me of an exchange I had with an acquaintance mine, early on in proceedings. He’s a senior manager in the NHS. One of the reasons he gave that we should lock down and take covid seriously was that it disproportionately affected non-white people.
Of course it disproportionately affected folk with darker skin – their Vit D serum levels were through the floor & adequate Vit D levels reduced the severity of said illness & risk of being subjected to the death protocols in hospitals.
If only the data from the frontline medics had been utilised rather than censored….
But the government does have your best interests at heart…. Honestly….
Damn! that battalion of flying pigs has just crashed in flames…
What.? With all those multi-generational houses,and a tendency to spend their evenings in the streets with friends and neighbours, or praying five times a day.
“Electric car infrastructure creaks under demand”
So of your not well off enough to have a house you own, a private drive ,30 plus grand lying around in the first place, not to mention a caravan, a boat, a trailer, nowhere you need to go! Retired, solar panels and a healthy bank balance! Electric cars are just the thing for you! (About 5% of the population at best) I think evs have reached all the customers they are ever going to reach! It always was a niche product!
“Covid lockdown may have created similar memory problems to those that people who are locked up in prions”
Freudian slip?
Nice one
Meanwhile!: “BGT’s Amanda Holden glitters in sheer gown with sizzling thigh split”
Look over here! Oi, sheeple, here! (Click fingers loudly) Ignore the smoke and mirrors and the man behind the curtain!
‘The man behind the curtain’???
Although a bit rude about ‘her’ sheer gown it’s certainly the Amanda Holden story we might be bothered to read.
This is quite worrying….I haven’t seen this reported in any British media (naturally)…..when you remember that we live in a country that still keeps reporter Julian Assange in prison..and that only a couple of weeks ago was defending a US reporter detained by Russia….
“Britain has called for the release of a US journalist detained in Moscow.
No10 said Rishi Sunak stood ‘shoulder to shoulder’ with the US over its efforts to free Evan Gershkovich.”
https://thegrayzone.com/2023/05/30/journalist-kit-klarenberg-british-police-interrogated-grayzone/
British counter-terror police detained journalist Kit Klarenberg upon his arrival at London’s Luton airport and subjected him to an extended interrogation about his political views and reporting for The Grayzone.As soon as journalist Kit Klarenberg landed in his home country of Britain on May 17, 2023, six anonymous plainclothes counter-terror officers detained him. They quickly escorted him to a back room, where they grilled him for over five hours about his reporting for this outlet. They also inquired about his personal opinion on everything from the current British political leadership to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
….During Klarenberg’s detention, police seized the journalist’s electronic devices and SD cards, fingerprinted him, took DNA swabs, and photographed him intensively. They threatened to arrest him if he did not comply.