Will the lights go out this winter? A letter from the energy regulator Ofgem shows it is taking the prospect seriously. Ross Clark in the Spectator takes a closer look.
Ofgem declared that “there is a possibility of GB entering into a gas supply emergency” this winter and lays out what would happen in the event of this happening i.e., when insufficient gas is available to supply the gas network at any wholesale price. It turns out that Ofgem would seek to reduce demand by telling the largest gas users to switch off their plant. These, it adds, “will likely be large gas-fired power stations”. In other words, electricity generation will be sacrificed in order to maintain gas supply to households. The owners of the gas-fired stations will be paid compensation if they are unable to fulfil supply contracts, but that won’t help to keep the lights on.
There are, of course, ways to generate electricity other than gas, yet the U.K. power system is painfully dependent on gas to fill in the gaps when wind and solar are unable to deliver.
Ross notes that in 2021, gas accounted for 39.9% of overall electricity generation, while the contribution from renewable energy actually dropped by 9.3%, in spite of extra wind and solar capacity, “largely on account of low wind speeds”. Two of our remaining seven nuclear power stations have also been shut down this year.
With the European Centre for Medium Weather-Range Forecasts warning of high pressure dominating western Europe in November and December, this bodes ill for wind and solar energy. The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that to prevent blackouts Europe will have to reduce demand for gas by up to 13%, depending on the level of liquified natural gas (LNG) imports, meaning rationing is very much on the cards. The agency said:
Europe’s security of gas supply is facing unprecedented risk as Russia intensifies its use of natural gas supplies as a political weapon. Solidarity, unity and responsible household behaviour will be crucial to ensure supply security.
Worth reading in full.
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BEV owners beware! Those massive batteries which power your overcomplicated sofas on wheels don’t take gas!
If the electricity grid collapses because the gas-fired generation switches off then having gas central heating and a gas cooker isn’t going to help you as the vast majority of boilers need electricity to operate and cookers have electrically-controlled gas valves.
Thanks green blob, we won’t forget you when the chickens come home to roost.
Gonna live in our campervan. Everything runs of diesel, including the induction hob, via my 3000W inverter. All considered, diesel is still a very cheap source of energy.
Got a nice recirculating shower in there, too. Water is heated directly from a diesel powered hydronic.
As an aside, if the Government hadn’t decided to socialise the cost of electricity, post the forecast Jan 1st price increase it would have been cost effective to run a diesel generator at home (if you had one) for all your domestic needs.
It wouldn’t surprise me at all if people with a ‘feed-in-tariff’, courtesy of their solar panels, weren’t running a petrol generator all day fed back through the solar panel circuit, using the kWh generated & collecting £0.63 /kWh that goes through the meter. As an additional bunce, loads of older meters run backwards when exporting kWh (the makers never anticipated it happening), it’s just like when you used to ‘clock’ a car, a black & decker on the milometer & knock 25k off the mileage. So, not only do you use the kWh & get the FIT but your meter is decrement by the amount you used.
So, no lighting for anyone this winter and heating and cooking only for those who happen to use gas for this? And obviously, neither fridges nor freezers for anyone? Now, that sounds like a charming rescue plan with a high chance of succeeding.
Soon, blackout news and forecasts will be part of the daily weather report.
Presumably the graph shown displays annual totals. This site: https://grid.iamkate.com/ provides a lot more detailed content, from live to seasonal totals for each source, and the total generation over time etc.
Note that it does not classify wood chips as “renewable” – it is called “Biomass” under “other energy”. Incidentally, at 7:45 about 15% of the generation was being exported from the UK grid to other places.
It ought to be well known that solar electric output is governed by the daylight hours automatically, plus the amount of cloud cover during daylight. In the little micro power station in my place, Autumn provided about 20% of the annual total, with Winter providing 10%, and the rest being Spring & Summer.
Something to be wary of is the prospect of using “SMART” metering to move to variable pricing – in effect, like buying energy on the stock market, with the prices changing every half hour; not nice, but technically possible for some (not available at my place). Back door rationing, maybe.
Without electricity there will be no refrigeration nor financial transactions, which means supermarkets will have to close and food will spoil. Just who are the idiots in charge of net zero? A 10 year old school child could do better managing things.
Chances are that someone fed the Spectator guy a line he’s simpy repeating without putting too much thought into this (as journalists are unfortunately wont to do). If it starts with international agency it’s political propaganda to help with achieving one of the usual, worthy goals (in this case, most likely, more climate panic). All of these UN*, I* and W* institutions need to be dismantled.