It’s been widely reported that England is in the throes of an ‘excess deaths crisis’. We’ve covered it here at the Daily Sceptic, and so have many other outlets.
According to figures published by the ONS, England and Wales has seen over 17,000 excess deaths since the start of May – which is 12% higher than the five-year average. What’s more, only 7,600 of these can be attributed to Covid. And that’s if you generously assume that every “death involving Covid” qualifies as such.
Lockdown sceptics (such as my colleagues Toby and Will) have suggested the excess deaths we’re seeing might be due to the delayed effects of lockdown. For example, perhaps more people are dying now because of missed cancer screenings back in 2020. They’ve also suggested that adverse reactions to the vaccines might be playing a role.
However, I’m not sure there’s really anything to explain. The chart below shows age-adjusted excess mortality in England since January of 2020. It is based on data published by the ONS.
As you can see, there was a big spike corresponding to the first wave and a small hump corresponding to the second wave. Since the start of 2021, however, we haven’t really had any excess mortality – at least on average. Zooming in on the last three months (data for August are not yet available) there’s nothing to report.
Age-adjusted mortality was 4.9% higher than the five-year average in May, was 1.2% lower in June, and was 2.2% higher in July. Averaging across the three months, it was only 2% higher than the five-year average. To put this figure into perspective, age-adjusted mortality was *92%* higher than the five-year average in April of 2020.
So what explains the difference between my chart and the one above? Two things: choice of baseline, and age-standardisation (plus the chart above includes Wales).
My chart uses ‘2015–2019’ as the five-year average. By contrast, the ONS recently switched to using ‘2016–2019 plus 2021’ as the five-year average. The latter time period omits the year 2015, which had unusually high mortality. As a result, the average of ‘2016–2019 plus 2021’ yields a lower baseline than the average of ‘2015–2019’, which has the effect of exaggerating excess morality.
A more important difference is age-standardisation. My chart plots the age-standardised mortality rate as a percentage of the five-year average, whereas the chart above compares the absolute number of deaths to the five-year average.
Because England’s population is ageing, the absolute number of deaths is increasing each year – or has been since 2011. This means that the five-year average underestimates the expected number of deaths in the year of interest. (Earlier in the pandemic, lack of age-adjustment led pro-lockdown commentators to overestimate the number of deaths caused by Covid.)
Incidentally, John-Burn Murdoch at the Financial Times correctly notes that excess mortality is much lower once you adjust for age, though for some reason he still finds an elevated level in July. (This may be because he used ‘2016–2019 plus 2021’ as the five-year average, rather than ‘2015–2019’ like me.)
Two caveats are in order. First, age-adjusted mortality data for August are not yet available, and they may show a greater uptick. Second, it’s possible that people are dying from the delayed effects of lockdown, but this isn’t showing up as age-adjusted excess mortality because the five-year average is the wrong counterfactual.
In other words, it’s possible we’d now be seeing negative excess mortality (i.e., ‘mortality displacement’) if not for the delayed effects of lockdown. This is by no means implausible, as there has been considerable mortality displacement in Sweden – which didn’t lock down.
However, going by the conventional way of doing things, there’s currently no ‘excess deaths crisis’ in England.
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The madleft clown-worlders view of the world is that they think that we need fewer cows and sheep but unlimited immigrants.
Hmm, think the immigrant problem might be solved if we become the only country in the world living under the conditions outlined above!
Book me a ticket on the last flight out!
…first…
A halal butchers near us was raided a couple of years ago. They found sheep carcasses which had identification tags from a local farm which had been suffering thefts. If meat becomes scarce and expensive expect even less observance of food production regulations.
Horsemeat in ready-meal lasagne? That’ll be the least of our worries.
Standing by for this to be reported on BBC1 in 3-2-1
oops, how strange…
Are they intimating that we eat the immigrants? Even though we do have an immigrant issue, I, personally am not up for that.
Why can’t they just leave the people alone to live their lives unabused!
‘They’ wouldn’t have anything to manage if they let people alone.
‘Manage’ is overstating it.
Becasue they believe they know better than us. To them we are the sheep and they are the shepherds. The truth is we are the beasts and they are the slaughterers in the slaughter house.
But what will happen to the sheep?
Ah.
Socialists never leave you alone. You might make your own decisions and live better.
The Michelin-starred chefs will have a ‘challenge’ to produce anything creative from whatever is left after all these foods are eliminated. At least eliminated from production in the UK itself. China will be expanding into dairy to supply the black market with it all.
Having recently watched an episode of Traffic Cops where they discovered bags and bags of cocaine in the back of someone’s car, I’m now imagining a similar scenario related to cheese. “Have you had any cheese in the last 24 hours, mate?” “What, me, cheese? Oh no officer, don’t touch the stuff” “That’s funny, because your car absolutely stinks of camembert” etc etc.
My trigger finger is itching, metaphorically of course.
No metaphors here, if they wish to take away the food we evolved to eat in preference to green slop then that is an existential threat. It should be met in kind with extreme prejudice.
You’re quite right of course but luckily here in Italy this shit doesn’t seem to be such an issue, and because I presume MI5 monitor comment threads like this I think it is good practice to be a little bit careful when it comes to armed violence.
Net Zero, Absolute Zero, Zero-Sum Games – academia’s Klimate-Kommissar Humanity-Haters leading The Great Leap Backwards to the nirvana of 2050’s Year Zero.
No limit to the evil these academician berks come up with in order to get their rocks off Telling Other People What To Do.
Someone please send for a length of sturdy rope and directions to the nearest street lamp.
Most modern street lamps do not have much of a horizontal arm. I wonder why?
Would love to know how Professor Julian Allwood currently lives his life. Just taking a punt here, but I’m willing to bet he does not live according to his principles (i.e. in a mud hut, wearing clothing made from worm casts or something similar, no transport, no holidays, no medical treatment unless it involves herbs, no TV, computers or mobile phones, no use of anything that is hydrocarbon-derived…).
Personally I think these plans are too mad for all but the maddest Net Zero advocates and unlikely to come to fruition, but it’s still worrying that this is officially out there.
Net Zero Bans Meat and Dairy
And fish.
And if it turned out that climate change was driven by solar cycles and orbital mechanics – and that carbon dioxide had a trivial effect – would The Zealots That Be change their policies back to the ‘good old days’ or would they press on with their authoritarian control?
I think we know the answer – keeping your own chickens could be a revolutionary act.
No chance – chickens all dutifully registered according to current regulation, and whole national flock culled the next time a pet gerbil catches bird flu in Guatemala.
Yes but if you have your own hens and a cockerel and a suitable incubator they have no chance of controlling your numbers. You just need a bit of space and intelligent management.
I was a young man back in the 1960s.
Well, you made your own amusement then, going to the pictures.
When the travel was hard – and I mean we still used the wheel –
But you could sit down at your table and eat a real food meal.
(Incredible String Band prophecy, 1967)
I wonder how he lives? Does he live in a home made of bricks? cement? wood? Or is he doing the responsible thing and living in a mud house?. How does he heat and cook? I assume he lives purely on a plant and insect diet with the odd bit of fake meat. His home must be heated by blankets made of hemp as solar panels destroy the environment and likewise windmills cannot be disposed of safely, plus they use concrete.
In terms of eating I assume he grows all his own food and ensures his family follow the same strictures that he does. I assume clothing is all at least second hand or produced by his wife spinning locally grown hemp. I assume lighting is provided by tallow made from sustainable sources, probably in future provided by human bodies.
In going to work I assume he walks, or uses a sustainably produced natural bicycle.
I assume he does not use a computer as these use vital resources from the earth and need electricity to power.
When he is ill of course he will only use plants as in medieval times or the odd leech.
travel and holidays abroad must be out of the question as this would be a betrayal of the correct way to live,
Perhaps the Prof and his colleagues at FIRE might like to set out for us exactly how they are living the dream wlong with their families, that they intend to force on to the rest of us. If he cannot then perhaps he should do a year of living by his edicts and then come tell us all about it, thats if he survives that long.
Exactly what I said above. Anyone proposing such radical changes to everyone else’s way of living should be forced to live as they themselves are proposing, with absolutely no exceptions for anything. As it stands, I think they somehow imagine they will be exceptions to the rule because they are doing such important work, or actually more likely they have so little imagination that they just can’t imagine how awful it would really be.
Depressing though it all is, I really don’t think it will get this far so I’m trying not to worry too much.
Long before this, the whole Net Zero/Climate change hoax will go the way of CoVid – embarrassed politicians, media and other loonies pretending it never really happened, wasn’t a big deal, relied on the “best” science at the time, mistakes were made, but “we need to move on”.
Note: “hoax” means something deliberate intended to deceive and/or defraud. It doesn’t mean joke or prank as some think.
Yup, I agree. The arse is falling right out of it and has been for some time.
Something else will come along instead though, it always does!
Embarrassed politicians? I’ve yet to meet one, they have no shame
Talk about a vote winner……still when we lock them up, they’ll be cheap to feed, just toss in some grass and a bit of bark,…..
When psychopaths meet climate alarmism.
Hands off my lamb, beef, milk and cheese. I hope this is not clearing the decks for chlorinated chicken. Or is it just clearing the fields for more solar abominations?
I predict this is used as the ‘this is what we ought to do, but we’re pragmatic so we’ll only limit you to one lamb chop one a month instead of a full ban. There, aren’t we the Good Guys?’.
I predict within 10 years that all members of UK FIRES will be on trial, followed by long prison sentences, for treason against the welfare and happiness of the English, Scottish, Welsh and Irish peoples
This will follow the Great Civil War which will enable the deportation of all unwanted illegals and misbehaving immigrants.
Beef is important to Aryans and so is leather. There is no future of humanity without the guidance of the Aryans.
I did, for a moment, wonder why beef and lamb would be banned but not pork. Then I realised that all the pigs will keep on going because they are in parliament with their noses in the trough!
Before they waste taxpayers money on these reports the government should address the fact that there is no evidence of increased severe weather events, death from climate related incidents has decreased and sea levels are not rising. Also we have increased crop yields instead of the predicted in every IPCC report crash in yields. In other words climate change predictions are total fantasy
But you won’t hear about that on the BBC / ITV etc.
Report from the Netherlands:
Health agency found high levels of PFAS (microplastics) in eggs , especially from chickens kept in backyards, not so much in eggs sold in supermarkets. So this was on the national news with an apology it was just before Easter.
Moving people away from their own food production….
Microplastics – the new horror in the war on plastics.
This aspect of the NET Zero Agenda is yet another example of government proclaiming a future successful outcome, before any thought, engagement with those of relevant experience, or serious analysis has been done on behalf of the voters, and then continuing with the agenda, in spite of the accumulating evidence that it shouldn’t have started in the first place.
IIRC, when I first encountered UK FIRES, I wondered whether it was ‘putting flesh on the bones’ of the absurd ‘oven ready’ Green policies, so highlighting the futility of it all, and the waste, and destruction. If so, it hasn’t had much effect on those driving the agenda.
Utterly terrifying what these lunatics have in store for us.
Yes Ed, I’m sure your Halal meat friendly mates will love that on. Dream on. How did 1930’s prohibition pan out??…. crickets…….
And we pay for these fantasies? This should have been posted on April 1st and I would have chuckled, today I gagged.
Is not lamb a staple food of our middle eastern ‘invaders’? Will they allow the government they thought was doing everything for them (as it seems to an indigenous native) to ban their principal food source?
And Goats, again not mentioned. I assume Halal meat is not allowed under the EU regulations? Halal probably prohibits factory junk too, unless it is “passed” by an Imam?
This guy appears to do very well out of all the grants etc so no wonder he wants to keep the fake climate change narrative going. However comments appear to be turned off on his YouTube videos so he appears unable to deal with criticism of his preposterous climate claims.