• Login
  • Register
The Daily Sceptic
No Result
View All Result
  • Articles
  • About
  • Archive
    • ARCHIVE
    • NEWS ROUND-UPS
  • Podcasts
  • Newsletter
  • Premium
  • Donate
  • Log In
The Daily Sceptic
No Result
View All Result

Age-Adjusted Excess Mortality During the Pandemic in Sweden

by Noah Carl
13 March 2022 1:11 PM

One of the most startling facts of the pandemic is that, between January of 2020 and June of 2021, Sweden had negative excess mortality – the country’s age-standardised mortality rate was below the five-year average.

Despite all the warnings about “disaster” and “folly”, Sweden actually saw fewer deaths than usual over this eighteen month period. (The ONS data on which this conclusion is based only go up to June of 2021. But it’s a good bet the picture hasn’t changed much since then.)   

Even lockdown sceptics might find this difficult to believe. Sure, Sweden didn’t turn out to be the disaster that lockdown proponents claimed it would be. But can it really be true that there were fewer deaths than usual? What about those reports of Swedish hospitals “filling up with patients” in the winter of 2020?

It can really be true. And those reports are easy to reconcile with the mortality data. You just have to remember two phenomena: the ‘dry tinder’ effect, and mortality displacement.

For those who’ve forgotten, here’s a brief reminder. The ‘dry tinder’ effect refers to the tendency for mortality to increase following a period of unusually low mortality, due to the presence of large numbers of very frail elderly people, who ended up living longer than expected.

Mortality displacement is just the opposite. It refers to the tendency for mortality to decrease following a period of unusually high mortality – for deaths to be ‘brought forward’ by some deadly event, such as a pandemic, heat wave or unusually cold winter.

Once you’re familiar with these two phenomena, you realise it’s perfectly possible for hospitals to fill up temporarily without the mortality rate going up at all in the medium term (over a period of several months or a year, say.)

The chart below shows the weekly age-standardised mortality rate in Sweden as a percentage of the five-year average, from January of 2020 to June of 2021. (I made the chart using data published by the ONS.)

In the winter of 2020, mortality was below average, leading to the build up of ‘dry tinder’. When the pandemic hit in March, mortality increased substantially. It then fell back below average during the summer of 2020, giving rise to mortality displacement. This pattern then repeated itself over the subsequent 12 months.

Aside from the obvious fact that Sweden’s approach didn’t lead to disaster (far from it), what’s the major lesson here? It’s that you won’t get a reliable picture of the pandemic if you only follow the news. After all, ‘Hospitals Fill Up With Patients’ grabs your attention, whereas ‘Another Week of Below-Average Admissions’ doesn’t pack the same punch.

Tags: Age-adjusted mortalityONSSweden

Donate

We depend on your donations to keep this site going. Please give what you can.

Donate Today

Comment on this Article

You’ll need to set up an account to comment if you don’t already have one. We ask for a minimum donation of £5 if you'd like to make a comment or post in our Forums.

Sign Up
Previous Post

Infection Rates Higher in Triple Vaccinated Than in Unvaccinated Across All Age Groups, UKHSA Data Show

Next Post

Millions in Lockdown in ‘Zero-Covid’ China

Subscribe
Login
Notify of
Please log in to comment

To join in with the discussion please make a donation to The Daily Sceptic.

Profanity and abuse will be removed and may lead to a permanent ban.

42 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments

NEWSLETTER

View today’s newsletter

To receive our latest news in the form of a daily email, enter your details here:

DONATE

PODCAST

In Episode 35 of the Sceptic: Andrew Doyle on Labour’s Grooming Gang Shame, Andrew Orlowski on the India-UK Trade Deal and Canada’s Ignored Covid Vaccine Injuries

by Richard Eldred
9 May 2025
5

LISTED ARTICLES

  • Most Read
  • Most Commented
  • Editor’s Picks

Is Britain on the Brink of Civil War?

12 May 2025
by Joe Baron

Disney Re-Releases Snow White – and it Bombs Even Worse Than the First Time

12 May 2025
by Will Jones

News Round-Up

13 May 2025
by Richard Eldred

The Met Office is Unable to Name the Sites Providing ‘Estimated’ Temperature Data For its 103 Non-Existent Stations

12 May 2025
by Chris Morrison

NatWest Customer Offended by Pride Flags Told to Bank Online

12 May 2025
by Will Jones

Did Keir Starmer Just Say He Will ‘Take Back Control’?

26

BBC Presenter Gary Lineker Posts Anti-Israel Video Featuring Rat Emoji – a Known Antisemitic Slur

25

A Closer Look at ARIA: Britain’s Secretive £800 Million Sun-Dimming Quango

23

Is Britain on the Brink of Civil War?

32

Female Rugby Player Left With Major Injury After Horror Tackle From Transgender Opponent Asks: “How Was This Allowed to Happen?”

15

The NHS No Longer Recognises the Reality of Biological Sex

13 May 2025
by Caroline Ffiske

A Closer Look at ARIA: Britain’s Secretive £800 Million Sun-Dimming Quango

13 May 2025
by Tilak Doshi

Did Keir Starmer Just Say He Will ‘Take Back Control’?

13 May 2025
by James Alexander

Why Are Popes so Soft on Migration?

12 May 2025
by Dr Roger Watson

Is Britain on the Brink of Civil War?

12 May 2025
by Joe Baron

POSTS BY DATE

March 2022
M T W T F S S
 123456
78910111213
14151617181920
21222324252627
28293031  
« Feb   Apr »

SOCIAL LINKS

Free Speech Union
  • Home
  • About us
  • Donate
  • Privacy Policy

Facebook

  • X

Instagram

RSS

Subscribe to our newsletter

© Skeptics Ltd.

Welcome Back!

Login to your account below

Forgotten Password? Sign Up

Create New Account!

Fill the forms below to register

All fields are required. Log In

Retrieve your password

Please enter your username or email address to reset your password.

Log In
No Result
View All Result
  • Articles
  • About
  • Archive
    • ARCHIVE
    • NEWS ROUND-UPS
  • Podcasts
  • Newsletter
  • Premium
  • Donate
  • Log In

© Skeptics Ltd.

wpDiscuz
You are going to send email to

Move Comment