Excess Non-Covid Deaths Approach 9,500 in Last 11 Weeks

There have been 9,422 more deaths than usual registered in England and Wales from causes other than COVID-19 in the 11 weeks since April 23rd, the latest official data show. In the week ending July 8th, the most recent week for which data are available, there were 928 excess deaths above the five-year average (10% above), of which 423 were registered with COVID-19 as a contributory cause and 262 with COVID-19 as the underlying cause, leaving 666 from an underlying cause other than COVID-19.

At the Daily Sceptic, we are tracking deaths by date of occurrence and comparing them to the rollout of spring Covid vaccine boosters in England in the over-75s, as there appears to be a correlation. This week, the odd spike in deaths by date of occurrence in the middle of June got bigger (owing to a backlog of registrations) making the drop in the week ending June 24th more pronounced. Interestingly, deaths rose again in the week ending July 1st rather than continuing to fall, though the drop in deaths by date of registration suggests a sustained downward trend may appear soon. The cause of the spike in non-Covid excess deaths in mid-June is unclear (these are deaths by date of occurrence so it isn’t a registration artefact).

Here is the cumulative curve of excess non-Covid deaths by date of registration along with the cumulative total of spring boosters. The trend in excess non-Covid death registrations appears to be heading downwards now.

As noted last week, the cause of the deaths appears to be largely related to diseases of the heart and blood vessels. Cancer deaths are, perhaps surprisingly given the withdrawal of healthcare access during the pandemic, broadly at normal levels, suggesting there is something other than lack of access to healthcare going on.

The need for the Government to investigate what lies behind these nearly 10,000 additional deaths in just two and a half months remains urgent.