Gloomy modelling by Neil Ferguson has forecast up to 5,000 Omicron deaths per day this winter unless restrictions are tightened within a fortnight. As usual, the fact that he’s got more or less every previous forecast wrong does not mean he won’t be taken seriously. MailOnline has more.
Neil Ferguson and his team at Imperial College London found “no evidence” the variant is less severe than Delta but estimate it is five-and-a-half times more likely to re-infect people and make vaccines significantly weaker.
Drawing on data from Omicron’s spread in the UK and South Africa, as well as lab tests on vaccine effectiveness, they concluded: “Omicron poses a major, imminent threat to public health.”
Professor Ferguson – a Government adviser whose modelling has spooked No10 into lockdowns before – said tighter curbs were needed “in a week or two” to have a significant effect on the size of the peak of the new wave.
The latest projections will raise fears that Britons could be stung by last-minute festive restrictions once again, with Boris Johnson repeatedly refusing to rule a full lockdown out if hospitalisations start to surge.
Wales has already announced the return of social distancing and closure of nightclubs from Boxing Day, while Scots are urged to limit mixing to three households and people in England are advised to “prioritise” social events.
In a best case scenario, Imperial said without further curbs there could be in the region of 3,000 daily Omicron deaths at the peak in January – significantly higher than the previous record of 1,800 during the second wave.
Professor Azra Ghani, an epidemiologist at the university and one of the researchers behind the modelling, said it was an “illustration of the need to act”.
Yesterday, Chris Whitty told MPs yesterday that he was “extremely cautious” about SAGE’s modelling of Omicron because there are still some “really critical things we don’t know” about the variant.
SAGE’s models have been criticised several times in the past for overegging the UK’s epidemic, most recently projecting 6,000 daily Delta hospital admissions in October.
Worth reading in full.
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Strange that Prof from a spike protein, eh? US lawyer Dr Francis Boyle has evidence that Harvard U Chem. Dept. Dr. Ch. Lieber & Oz. Health Dept aided Wuhan Labs in the project to create the bio-weapon spike protein.
The Identity of the Virus: Health/ Science Institutions Worldwide “Have No Record” of SARS-COV-2 Isolation/Purification.
By Christine Massey, December 05, 2021
As a spike protein cannot be idented as a virus, the 1M US$ reward by Dr. Russell Blaylock for its ident is NOT taken up.
Dr. Kary Mullins, inventor of the PCR test stated that his test only idents strands of DNA from Hep. and Flu.
US Dr. Elisabeth Eads studies noted that the PCR test gives 97% false positives.
WHO on Jan. 20, 2021 in their Directive #202005 stated that the PCR test is of NO VALUE.. this superseding their Jan.20.2020 advice to do PCR tests.
Ferguson is to accurate predictions what the Taliban is to female emancipation!!
The photo is appropriate, although Mystic Meg would be more accurate. This Model Making failure is determined to get his half a million death ‘pound of flesh,’ isn’t he? He is not more or ‘less’ wrong in his modelling, he has been consistently wrong for decades. If he worked for a commercial enterprise he would have been sacked years ago. He is not only ‘bonkers,’ he is dangerously inaccurate. Another lockdown and more deaths will occur because of it, not because of covid. I am not advocating murder or such, but feeding to the pigs is not beyond a daydreaming consideration.
And here we go again. Lockdown, a lot fewer deaths if any. Oh aren’t we clever we’ve saved lots of lives, our model say so. Who the F do these think they are taking us for fools and idiots. Come on pull the other one it’s got bells attached!
Oh and Very much NOT worth reading.
That probably won’t go down very well here free speech wise but think I’ve seen enough. I’m no member of Mensa but think I can recognise bollocks when I see it. Once again Government propaganda peddled by MSM.
Let’s just remind ourselves of this:
Ferguson is by no means the only lockdown obsessive using scare tactics to close down society again. What they are really scared of is being found out. If we don’t lockdown and nothing happens other than the normal winter surges the game is up for them. Lockdowns are essential to their business model.
Lest we forget.. the 2001 wholesale slaughter of animals on the say so of Neil Ferguson..
More..
You may well ask why such an obvious idiot, who has never predicted anything even remotely correctly, is still employed. I wouldn’t employ him but I daresay the $148.8 Million he got from Gates may have something to do with it.
I can’t believe I’m reading this! How the hell is this psycopath still alive, never mind being quoted. Why is he not locked away in a high security lunatic asylum. The man is fuxxing dangerous to humanity and everyone knows it, apart from those paying him it seems.
He has been caught out many times, smoking gun an’ all.
We will never beat these people. This is our life forever now. God help us all.
Can anyone explain to me why there’s such a difference of ‘opinion’ about the danger this variant poses depending on whether one listens to, say, Dr John Campbell, or to Sage? Is the answer as obvious as I’m thinking?
“because there are still some ‘really critical things we don’t know’”, yes, like just about everything!
I’ve tested positive today. Practically everyone I know is positive atm. The only reason I’ve tested is because of work or I won’t even bother. It’s a cold. I’ve had far worse. The world has gone nuts for a cold.
Their rhetoric now says we must test, we must vaccinate, but the law is clear that we can’t be compelled to do so. Both are advisory only. I am in a similar position at work, where I have declared my mask exemption. I will dodge tests, then claim either exemption on grounds of allergy or conscientious objection. All or nothing for me.
The Government obsession with these predictions contribute to the positive feedback loop they have created, making the NHS an inherently unstable system. It accelerates in only one direction, amplifying the number of cases which drive a stronger and stronger response which reduces our capacity, even capability, to function until nothing works anymore. A ‘runaway’ condition that will guarantee the NHS will be overwhelmed irrespective of Coronaviruses and SARS-CoV-2 – or any disease for that matter.
FOF Fuck off Fearguson.
23.5 Million people in England who have NOT had a single dose of a Covid-19 Vaccine
By The Exposé on December 17, 2021
For months the British public have been deceived with tales that there are just 5 million people in the United Kingdom who have refused to take up the offer of a Covid-19 vaccine. But today we can reveal that this is a lie.
It is a complete fabrication that has no doubt been used to make those who have refused the jab feel as if they are part of a minority, because an official UK Government report proves that in England alone there are approximately 23.5 million people who have not had a single dose of a Covid-19 vaccine.
It was back in September that the British public were told there were 5 million Brits who had so far refused the experimental jabs. Sir Patrick Vallance, the UK’s Chief Scientific Advisor and former president of GlaxoSmithKline, announced in a televised Covid-19 briefing that “There are five million or so people who are eligible for vaccines now who haven’t been vaccinated,”.
Well it turns out the “or so” make up approximately another 10.3 million people in England alone… Read more »
The Lancet article, entitled COVID-19 vaccine efficacy and effectiveness—the elephant (not) in the room, says that although attention has focused on vaccine efficacy and comparing the reduction of the number of symptomatic cases, “fully understanding the efficacy and effectiveness of vaccines is less straightforward than it might seem. Depending on how the effect size is expressed, a quite different picture might emerge.”
The article continues: “Vaccine efficacy is generally reported as a relative risk reduction (RRR). It uses the relative risk (RR)—ie, the ratio of attack rates with and without a vaccine—which is expressed as 1–RR. Ranking by reported efficacy gives relative risk reductions of 95% for the Pfizer–BioNTech, 94% for the Moderna–NIH, 91% for the Gamaleya, 67% for the J&J, and 67% for the AstraZeneca–Oxford vaccines.
“However, RRR should be seen against the background risk of being infected and becoming ill with COVID-19, which varies between populations and over time. Although the RRR considers only participants who could benefit from the vaccine, the absolute risk reduction (ARR), which is the difference between attack rates with and without a vaccine, considers the whole population. ARRs tend to be ignored because they give a much less impressive effect size than RRRs:… Read more »
Part way through “Doctoring Data” which explodes the fraud of RRR. Why has the Statistic watchdog not publicly censored the use of these glaring misrepresentations?
You are 100% spot on – lets now trawl MSM for reports on this……
A highly reassuring update. Ferguson has never been right about anything, ever.
I am “prioritising” social events: I’m going to as many ‘do’s’ as I can, whether the likes of Ferguson or Whitty approve or not. Rollox to SAGE, UKHSA, Johnson, Starmer and all of the ” where’s your mask!?” brigade.
There may be 5,000 deaths per day but it won’t be from omicron. Seeing a slew of elderly, double jabbed, some boosted dying “with covid”.
If as predicted these experimental biologicals cause adverse events and deaths (Cdc VAERS), and reduce our innate immune systems, depress genes/proteins in the body which protect us from cancers. Well then, yes 5,000 people a day dying is probably a low figure. But their deaths will not be from omicron. Quite the opposite, the experimental biologicals without a soupçon of safety will do their magic.
Neil Ferguson has plucked these figures from his arse.
He can shove them back there.
I come here just to regain my sanity. Regard myself as average intelligence but even I get overwhelmed by the lies washing over us like a tsunami.
There was a period of time in my life when I had exponential sex. The number of partners I had doubled every few days until eventually there wasn’t enough minutes in the day for me to satisfy everyone.
Then there is reality…
If he could just work himself into the right position it would be win win.
Hasn’t he/she cried wolf before?
Indeed. The difference being, in the original case the rational citizens ceased to believe the boy after his second blag.
Dr. Vladimir Zelenko said anyone that willfully vilified and obstructed access to hydroxychloroquine and ivermectin in the prevention and treatment of Covid-19 is guilty of first degree capital murder, genocide, and crimes against humanity. They are trying to jab as many people as possible so that their great reset aka depopulation plan work. I believe in God & Jesus. If I get sick I will take my Ivermectin that I stashed just in case and leave rest to God. If you want to get Ivermectin you can visit https://ivmpharmacy.com
The Australian Financial Review is going into competition with the professor.
It’s all about covid on today’s front page.
Does anyone know of an on-line (or High Street) betting shop that will take bets on this number (5000 per day)? I’m reckoning on the usual 1500 – 1800 deaths per day in the UK in January, restrictions or no restrictions, boosters or no boosters. This is a serious query by the way.
The number of people who will die from Omicron this winter doesn’t depend on how many people come into contact with it: it will depend on how ill or old people are and how cold the winter is.
So unless there has been some fundamental shift in the health and living conditions of people in the UK, the number who die from infectious diseases will remain largely the same (allowing for the usual winter peak).
Is anyone else of a betting mind on this?
This one was definitely worth a listen even if you’re not a Rogan fan
https://open.spotify.com/episode/0aZte37vtFTkYT7b0b04Qz?si=mL4914WaRI-4E3eSsIL6hw
Genuinely don’t understand why this shameless charlatan who has never been right about anything is still given uncritical air time as an ‘expert’.
In medieval times, he’d have been tarred and feathered. Or pitch capped. Or put in the stocks.
No. He’d have been a priest.
No-one in Britain is brave enough to grab him and put him in the stocks. That’s about it, really.