I’m slightly surprised to be writing this post as to my mind the answer is obvious – of course the U.K. will face a winter Covid surge. It’s winter. That’s what happens in winter; the dominant respiratory virus surges and, most years, taxes the capacity of the health service. The only question is how big it will be – unusually large like 2020-21, or unusually small like 2019-2020 before Covid hit? It’s worth remembering that more people died in England and Wales per head of population in 2008 (once adjusted for age etc.) and every year prior to it than died in 2020 or 2021, many of them succumbing during the winter flu season, as the chart below from the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries shows. In other words, there’s a winter surge in deaths-by-virus every year, and I see no reason why 2021-22 will be any different.
As I see it, the only realistic way there would not be a Covid surge on some scale is if another influenza-like virus takes over, which seems unlikely right now as flu is almost nowhere to be seen.
Nonetheless, I am writing this post, and that’s because some people seem to think that this year it’s not going to happen. Dr Sebastian Rushworth argues that places hit hard already, such as Sweden, New York and Lombardy, have developed enough immunity to avoid “another big wave” altogether. Andrew Lilico in the Telegraph maintains that owing to “infection saturation” and vaccine third doses, “for us, the Covid crisis is over”. Even the usual doom-mongers at SAGE are predicting a decline in hospitalisations and deaths in December, according to new modelling released on Friday. A decline in flu-like hospitalisations and deaths in December? Whoever heard of such a thing?
I freely admit that the winter surge may, because of acquired immunity, be relatively small in places like the U.K. which have already faced widespread exposure. Perhaps that’s all that Sebastian Rushworth and Andrew Lilico mean, and in which case our positions are not so far apart. But will it really be a non-event, as SAGE at least appears to be implying, so that Covid deaths decline during the winter and don’t put any further pressure on the health service?
Looking across to America, we can see that the summer and autumn Delta surge has seamlessly moved into a new winter surge in the more northerly states, including highly vaccinated New England in the north east. Southern states hard-hit by Delta already, such as Florida, South Carolina, Georgia, Mississippi, Louisiana and Texas, are not yet seeing a new rise, though there is an uptick in Arkansas, Kansas, New Mexico and Arizona that may be ominous. In the north east at least, then, the indication is that, as in Europe, vaccination does not protect from the winter spike, though whether prior high exposure, as in some of the southern states, keeps it muted remains to be seen.
My expectation remains that the U.K. will experience a winter Covid surge in December that causes a peak in hospitalisations and deaths in January, as happens most winter flu seasons, including last year. My prediction is that our acquired immunity will keep this down below last year’s level, perhaps to around 60%, but this is really just a guesstimate.
With restrictions returning and vaccine mandates being reinforced across Europe as the autumn tilts into winter, it’s important to be clear that the U.K. remaining restriction-free must not depend on there being no winter surge or heightened seasonal pressure on the health service. My fear is that these rosy predictions of no-winter-surge make us hostage to fortune, or rather to near-certainty, as when the almost inevitable surge does appear the pressure to respond as per the rest of Europe – because ‘look, our cases and hospitalisations are now going up as well’ – will be irresistible.
The health service was not overwhelmed last winter – at peak Covid-occupancy in England on January 18th, 10% of the NHS’s 85,802 beds remained unoccupied, while Covid patients occupied just 31% of beds. Hospitals coped by triggering their winter capacity-expansion plans and, if necessary, they will do the same this year.
There continues to be no evidence that general lockdown restrictions make any significant impact on Covid infections or deaths, or that they are worth the immense costs and harms they impose on society.
Naturally, I hope the optimists are right, and I will certainly be glad to raise a glass to their foresightedness if they are. But in the likely event they are not, we are in desperate need of a new tune to sing. As a society we must learn to turn our back on the baleful lockdownism that has characterised the pandemic so far, and find another way of responding to the acute hospital pressures, which are, after all, a normal winter occurrence.
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There is no such thing as a sensible transition to net zero. The whole thing needs to be abandoned ASAP. No surprise our unelected pm pushing this through for his donors. An unelected pm banning affordable cars, is that democracy? The Climate Change Act must be repealed as a matter of urgency otherwise we will continue to be governed by a Marxist clique, the Climate Change Committee. That the Tories have not done so is to their eternal shame.
What is NEVER mentioned is that to achieve NetZero will require the most huge amount of fossil fuels.
And when reached, the same, to guarantee the grid.
That’s because the net zero they really want to achieve is a zero economy, that produces nothing and eradicates humans.
Too many politicians owned by the WEF, too many other politicians cowards and/or morons.
Spot on.
I don’t think they want to eradicate humans, or even de-populate. I think they just want total hegemony over the economy and us toiling to ensure all the wealth is kept in their pockets. This is why EVERY single development we see to tackle various “crises” globally, real or imaginary, is designed in such a way that poorest take the biggest hit, consistently, every time.
And of course is also designed to produce multiple extra billionaires in Big Tech, Big Pharma and Big Everything.
https://youtu.be/LwEg7BvQXsg?si=jpT_U-CJ5KIMKhFR
I posted this last night so for those who haven’t seen it.
From the increasingly influential ‘Geoff Buys Cars.’
Be warned this is GRIM.
You stole my thunder even when I posted that first. The more that see that the better though!
There is no such thing as an elected PM. There are elected MPs who select someone from their ranks they advise the monarch to appoint as PM. And when it becomes too obvious that their latest choice has again turned into a liability, they select someone new. Since 2011, the average PM has had a shelf-life of just under 2½ years and for as long as the majority of the members of the House of Commons claim allegiance to the Conversationalist and Disunited Party, they’ll keep changing PMs as quickly as they can convince someone else to try his hands on the job.
I’m aware of the system but a pm who has actually won an election has rather more credibility than one who hasn’t, at least in the eyes of asleep voters. Had anyone even heard of Sunak in 2019? Now he’s the political king of the UK.
The last public face of the Tories during a general election Got Brexit done! by explicitly deferring to international experts who’d have to make the policy decisions mere English politicians weren’t qualified to make. That was literally incredibly credible for someone supposedly worrying about restoring British democracy & sovereignity. Johnson was always an amateur comedian not really concerned about much beyond Who do I impregnate today? and that’s exactly how he governed – or perhaps – rather not governed, that’s tedious stuff better left to experts, anyway.
So-called democracy in the West is a smokescreen to keep the population occupied with watching and betting on the outcome of party-infighting and their limited ability for causing public-face exchanges while actual policy remains pretty fixed. Even when the people really don’t play ball and vote in some offically dreaded right-winger making ancient sounding noises about patriotic mothership, as in case of the Italian melon, once in office, the dreaded right winger turns out as just another of the same kind, only with different buddies.
No one’s salvation ever arrived through a ballot box.
Italian Melon….Some say she was ‘got at’.
What does ‘got at’ mean here? (Gap in my English).
Apart from that, I suspect the usual political physics of Money always rolls downhill¹, especially in a situation where a No party gets to implement its manifesto coalition government is the norm.
¹ Idea I just had: It’s known that corporations have to ESG in order to attract money from large investors. How’s that with debt-financed states? Are the corresponding governments really free to make their own policy decisions or do they need to bow to investors as well? They certainly need money from them.
‘Got at’ as in someone talked to her behind the scenes.
Thanks.
Actually, to expand on what Ron posted “Got at,” implies the person in question has been spoken to behind the scenes in a stern manner and usually with some barely concealed threats in the messaging.
For your information, RW, I’d go a step further even than that, in suggesting that “got at” always implies threats made at some point. Typically, a jury is said to have been “got at” if its members have been threatened by the defendant in a legal case: “Send me to jail if you dare; friends of mine know where your children go to school” – that sort of thing.
English not your first language? Fair enough, I’ll stop dismissing your posts on the (admittedly frivolous) grounds that people who write ‘quirky’ English can’t be taken seriously. There, that’s got the pomposity out of my system for today.
They blame the mini budget for the ousting of Truss, but I vaguely remember something happen in the markets BEFORE the budget….If anyone can recall?
It’s true that the general public do not actually vote for a PM directly, but many voters behave as if the system allows them to do so, as if it is a pseudo presidential system. Years ago, when Gordon Brown became the leader of the LP, quite a few typical Labour voters (which I was aware of) did not vote Labour at the general election (because they were not happy with Gordon becoming the leader), and a Tory was elected.
Of course, with the present one, not even the Party members selected him as individual members.
Climate Change Committee.
The use of acronyms without providing the full title after first use is bad form. It annoys me too.
This was a reply to Wokeman asking for an explanation of ‘CCC.’
A subsidiary of the CCP.
MPs don’t have good incentives to vote rationally.
The PM has vast powers of patronage. It’s a big drop in income to move from a cabinet post to the back benches.
Longer term ‘career’ considerations mean that you have to be careful about sticking out from the majority and ‘not being a team player’.
MPs also think about what their voting record might mean for their social cachet outside of Parliament and what that means for future employment, board positions on businesses etc., I’m convinced this is a factor in Rishi’s own thinking. Getting a board position on Netflix or wherever might not be so easy if he is the person to take us out of the ECHR.
They also seek to avoid cognitive dissonance, like all of us.
Against that, acting according to principles and in line with the interests of their constituents stand no chance.
Net Zero is like jumping from a plane before you have invented the parachute.
—-I stole that one from Talk TV or somewhere.
As Stanley Jonson put it…..That is the National Plan.
Sunak.
Says one thing.
Does another.
His job is to keep smiling and follow the orders of his globalist overlords.
Nobody wants them, therefore forced communist quotas will drive car makers out of business and make second hand cars unaffordable for most people. So it’s all going to plan then. Klaus will be happy.
Not to pointlessly raise anyone’s blood pressure but for those who do end up driving in this forthcoming dystopia, this video is terrifying.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LwEg7BvQXsg&ab_channel=GeoffBuysCars
Indeed – manufacturers are opting out of ‘renewable energy’ and EVs because they are – ironically – unsustainable from an economic point of view.
Although I have no high opinion of most politicians, I don’t believe that every single one of them is too stupid to understand where this will lead, so the conclusion must be that they are intentionally destroying the West. However, when the power runs out, so does the internet, the smartphones, the netflix – the plebs will gather and revolt as they will have nothing else to do.
They are neither too stupid to realise where this goes or intentionally trying to destroy the west.
This is what they need to do to continue to progress in their careers. They put their interests way above those of anyone else. Except of course, that their job – in theory – is to represent the common interest. And they have the power to affect your life.
So you life is in the hands of people who will sell you out and screw you over in whichever way they need to if it helps their career. That is the reality of our “democratic system”.
It’s always been that way. The difference is that the state, which these MPs provide a front for, is encroaching into more and more aspects of your life, telling you what you can and can’t buy, telling companies what they can and cannot produce.
Our state is becoming totalitarian, under the pretext of avoiding climate change.
You make some good points and I’m sure everyone on here can agree with most of them but the problem is you still think this is unintentional and somehow down to bumbling incompetence and short term grasping.
Here’s a brilliant short history of how we got here and where we’re going if our zombie nation doesn’t wake up. From Kissinger to Schwab, the Rockefellers, Gettys, the WEF, Gates, Davos and the rest of the sociopathic Predator Class shower of shit who now make our decisions for us.
It’s well worth a watch.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5mK-FMY1374&ab_channel=IvorCummins
I don’t think it’s incompetence or bumbling. I’m arguing the opposite. These MPs are tools, the useful idiots/willing servants of the global predator class. They are told what to do and they do it in exchange for better career prospects.
I know perfectly well that MPs are the front men of the global elite. They are the part of the system designed to pacify the masses by creating the illusion that ordinary people vote in their representatives who then male decisions. All people are voting in are the salespeople who are.going to sell them the shit the global elite have decided.to serve up to them.
And a nanny state too…I heard then discussing ‘should cars be banned around schools’. These seem to be policies to get a conversation going on shows like Jeremy Vine and to ‘test the water’.
I don’t believe they are all stupid either, but it is hard to get a man to agree on something when his ability to pay his mortgage and feed his family depends upon NOT agreeing. Group think is a powerful thing.
As he also mentioned in the video, if petrol cars will be rendered worthless, where do all these people with classic cars stand, or anyone that has just spent thousands on a petrol car. That would be depreciation on steroids!
I own an EV and it works very well for me, I am fortunate enough to have a drive where I can charge it and solar panels that provide cheap electricity.
However, currently EVs are not practical for many people and deadlines, mandates, and quotas do not magic the problems away.
The only way we stop undemocratic or authoritarian impositions on us is by mass non-compliance. When some do comply, the power of the masses to effect outcomes is diminished. Divide and rule.
Clearly, EVs don’t currently meet the needs of everyone but that doesn’t stop me buying one, and that doesn’t mean I agree with the daft nonsense that Sunak is promoting.
I was discussing one day the energy and climate issue with someone who owned an electric car. They did not seem too happy with what I was saying. The man said to me rather abruptly “have you ever driven or owned an electric car sir”? I replied “No I haven’t”———He said “Well there you go then”——-He thought he had put me in my place till I replied “I am not criticising electric cars, I am criticising the governments that try to coerce me into one”. ——Check Mate.
There are altogether too many measures that take Parliament by surprise, or in other ways remove the ability to scrutinize legislation. Democracy now is like getting people to sign documents whilst covering up the text above.
Whatever they do do, our elected representatives gave up on representing us long ago.
2012 expenses scandal a sign
2016 attempts to scupper Brexit
2020 refusal to scrutinise govt over Covid.
Stop voting. It’s a complete waste of time, and as the anarchists of my youth used to say, “It only encourages them”.
With rare exceptions, such as Bridgen, they are beyond hope.
That might be a sensible option if low turnouts encouraged politicians to resign or rethink. In fact they get to govern as completely on a 10% turnout as on a 90% turnout.
I learned that back at university, where Students Union Membership was mandatory, only the activists could be bothered to attend meetings and vote, and the newspaper headlines were about students voting to exclude speakers, stop wars, and whatever else the New Left wanted. Now the same thing means Warwick Uni students being forced to go Vegan.
It’s harder to form a new political force and vote it in, but it’s the only legitimate route for change. The alternative is to wait for the downtrodden to rebel violently under the charismatic leader who turns out to be as bad as the old lot.
They’re not taken by surprise. They know exactly what they’re doing.
You’re labouring under the misapprehension that MPs care more about you than they do about their own careers. They don’t. They will sell you out as many times as they are presented with a choice between your best interest and their best interest. Every single time.
Our Prime Minister—
“–Completely negates” Mr Sunak’s pledge to delay Net Zero target.
I am minded of two quotes: Gen. Sir Gerald Templar to Lord Mountbattem–“Dickie, you’re so crooked, if you swallowed a nail, you’d shit a corkscrew.” The other’s a made up ‘Baldrick’ one: “As slippery as a slippery thing coverd in grease and sprayed with WD40.”
If you look at any of the various car related American you-tube channels you can soon pick up that dealers across America are awash with unsold Battery Electric Cars (BEVs). It seems that for most ordinary folk the idea of actually owning your own BEV does not make sense. The depreciation is phenomenal and cannot be sustained by people on ordinary incomes. The liability attached to the battery is huge and again if you are on an ordinary income is a liability you would not want to carry. The charging infrastructure is poor and it also requires quite a sophisticated grasp of ‘apps’ and digital technology to actually operate.
Then there is the lack of a ‘Top Gear’ factor, much as cars are mostly used for utilitarian transport when people buy a car they are dreaming of using it on a carefree holiday, surfing in the West Country or Hill Walking in Scotland, it soon becomes apparent that a BEV struggles to be up to the task of providing transport for an ‘out in the sticks’ away from it all holiday then they loose their attraction.
BEVs only seem to work on a leasehold basis where someone else carries the depreciation and the liability. Car leasing seems to be mainly for corporate users. Then of course nobody seems to mentioning what happens at the end of their life, can you re-cycle BEVs? the answer is yes but it is not cheap or easy.
Altogether if they insist that it is private BEV ownership or nothing then it will be nothing………it is difficult not to feel that this has been the plan all along.
In a place where people revolt, the state will be forced to back off their EV rules..
In a place, like the UK, where the population is weak and spineless, there will just be fewer cars around.
Which is almost certainly what many many technocrats want and what many a useful idiot thinks is a wonderful idea.
We don’t “revolt”.——-We actually glue ourselves to the road clamouring for our own impoverishment. Are we thick?
I don’t.
Yes I know you and I don’t but on the whole we are allowing these parasites to impoverish us with barely a whimper.
An electric car free with every purchase of petrol or diesel. Its the only way they will get rid of them
I doubt a freebie would take them off the manufacturer’s hands and it still has to be stored somewhere. Who wants an EV outside the house when a perfectly efficient ICE vehicle is already available 24 / 7?
It’s the petrol cars they’re getting rid of.
They don’t care if people buy electric cars or not.
Message from the British state to the British plebs: You can buy an electric car, or you can have no car at all. Your choice, either is fine by me.
That’s what 80% zero emissions cars by 2030 means.
It might not be a terrible idea to change the rules in Parliament so that votes are done anonymously. MPs won’t be able to be punished for disloyalty any more and can vote with their conscience. Then release the voting records of the current Parliament one week before each general election to allow the electorate to know how their MPs have voted.
That would work if MPs actually wanted to do the right thing for public. But they don’t actually care too much about that. They care about their careers. They WANT their party leaders to know exactly how they have voted, so they can get their brownie points for loyalty.
And get rid of the “Whips office” who tell our MP’S what to think.
Where does one start.
So… when does the insurrection begin? Or will the British public accept the country transforming into a socialist state without as much as a whimper?
I think it was Nancy Pelosi who said a few years ago —“We are all socialists now”. Being a socialist gives them much more stuff to do. But as someone pointed out. “The best government is the one that governs the least”.
“The most terrifying words in the English language are: I’m from the government and I’m here to help.” – Ronald Reagan.
Especially governments who now work for WEF and UN instead of for us.
We learn two important things here. ——–(1) Sunak and every tory who voted for this isn’t really a conservative, and Braverman is one. (2) We know what Labour are going to be doing next year regarding climate, as if we never knew that already.
Apparently, the amount of fossil fuels the world uses to produce the energy it needs is 81% of all energy production. Remarkably this is the same figure as in 1991. ——So the world (mainly the western world) has spent about 4 trillion dollars in that time to achieve————————–NOTHING.—– Demand for Fossil fuels grows by about one UK’s worth every year, but renewables cannot even provide enough energy to cover that growth, never mind replace the energy we already are using. Net Zero is so absurd it is beyond parody.
Pushes through EV quotas with the help of Liebore.
Just like the corona mandates then . . .
Just like with Lockdowns, they want everything harder and faster!
Boris at the Covid enquiry….Not listened to all on Radio but overheard him say…”with the absence of therapeutics”…..Really, we know that’s not the case. No push back from the KC shill. I also told JHB on Talk TV how she was insane to give her kids the experimental jab, that’s why she can never admit that she pushed them on her platform, she never read that out of course.
Tice vs Dale:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h1GCCrNb8DQ
Jim Dale——GB News resident climate activist. It was Julia Brewer on Talk TV who took this guy down the best. What a total buffoon he is. ——-He comes on GB News a lot with the clueless Eamonn Holmes who questions nothing this imposter says. Eamonn comes from the tittle tattle world of Breakfast Telly and has no clue on anything.
I wrote to the 26 MPs to thank them for their opposition. I’d encourage others to do the same – show them that people care about this stuff.