The ‘stylized facts’ concerning vaccine effectiveness against Covid are as follows. First, the vaccines confer strong protection against infection, which peaks about one month after the second dose. However, this protection then wanes over the following five or six months to as low as 20% (or even lower).
Second, the vaccines also confer strong protection against serious illness and death, and this protection wanes much more slowly. Hence, six months after vaccination, the vaccinated still have substantial protection against death.
While these stylized facts are approximately right, there’s reason to believe that vaccine effectiveness against death has been overestimated. Note: by ‘overestimated’ I simply mean that effectiveness may be somewhat lower than is claimed, not that effectiveness is zero (or even close to zero).
The reason effectiveness against death may have been overestimated was highlighted in a recent study by the U.S. CDC. Using data on a large cohort of Americans, Stanley Xu and colleagues calculated non-Covid death rates (adjusted for age and sex) among vaccinated and unvaccinated persons.
Their findings are shown in the figure below (taken from the Economist). Notice that, on both charts, the light blue bar is much higher than the other two bars, indicating that non-Covid death rates were substantially higher among the unvaccinated.
The researchers interpreted their results as evidence of vaccine safety. (If the vaccines were very unsafe, you’d expect a lot more non-Covid deaths in the vaccine groups.) However, there’s another implication, which the researchers also acknowledge: people who get vaccinated tend to be healthier and/or more risk-averse than those who don’t.
How do we explain this ‘healthy vaccinee’ effect? There are at least two possibilities. First, some people may be too frail to get vaccinated, due to old age or underlying health conditions. Second, some people may just be inherently healthier/more risk-averse, and as a result may be more likely to get vaccinated and less likely to die of other causes.
The CDC researchers actually attempted to control for the healthy vaccinee effect by selecting unvaccinated persons from among those who’d had at least one flu shot in the last two years. The fact that they still observed a difference in death rates suggests the true effect may be even larger.
While the CDC’s results might be good news from the perspective of vaccine safety, they’re bad news from the perspective of vaccine effectiveness.
Suppose you do a study, and find that the Covid death rate is ten times higher among unvaccinated people than among vaccinated people. That difference could be due to the vaccines. But it could also be due to the fact that vaccinated people are less likely to die for any reason.
Observational studies of vaccine effectiveness do attempt to control for the healthy vaccinee effect, for example by including some measure of health/frailty as another variable in the analysis. However, these kinds of measures may not capture all the relevant differences between vaccinated and unvaccinated people.
Consider Israel. By the start of June, the country had fully vaccinated 55% of its population (and an even higher percentage of adults). Despite this, and despite having gone through two previous waves of Covid, the country saw a major third wave associated with the Delta variant. Here’s the chart of daily Covid deaths:
One might have assumed that natural immunity from the two previous waves, combined with a 55% vaccination rate, would have kept deaths to a minimum. Yet the number of deaths was still substantial, at least relative to the previous waves. This is particularly evident if we look at excess mortality:
Total excess mortality in Israel’s third was about the same as in its first wave, and was actually higher than in its second wave. Now, it’s true that a disproportionate share of Covid deaths were among the unvaccinated. But this is consistent with the healthy vaccinee effect.
Of course, I’m not claiming that a plot of excess mortality in one country constitutes a serious analysis. Mortality would presumably have been higher absent the vaccination campaign. However, it’s hard to reconcile the chart above with claims of, say, 90% effectiveness against death.
To repeat: I’m not claiming the vaccines aren’t effective against serious illness and death; only that their effectiveness (after two doses) may have been overstated. Offering the vaccine to over 50s still makes sense as a way to achieve focused protection.
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Labour vows to ‘eliminate’ fox hunting
‘……there is not a majority in “any part of the country” that wants it to continue’
Or not really……..
‘To what extent do you personally support or oppose a ban on hunting with dogs in England and Wales?’
A MORI survey for BBC ONE’s Countryfile programme has revealed that support for a ban on hunting with dogs in England and Wales has fallen from nearly two thirds of British adults to around half.
The Hunting Act is a disaster for animal welfare.
‘Both shotguns and rifles are used to shoot foxes and we observed and filmed foxes shot at by all the main methods. We obtained data from the Scottish gun packs for the 2002-2003 season documenting the outcomes of 574 shots fired at 386 live foxes. This revealed an average kill rate of 55% (range 20-79%) for all shots fired……’
‘……..different known causes of mortality of British foxes………They concluded that 80,000 foxes were shot and retrieved each year and that a theoretical further 115,000 fox deaths remained unaccounted for. Some of these may be foxes that have been shot and died later without being retrieved”.
https://www.falcons.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/Wounding-rates-in-shooting-foxes.pdf
The Hunting Act bans the use of more than two dogs to follow up a wounded fox. Two dogs are useless for that task in thick cover……
The shape of things to come:
Since his lambing season began three weeks ago, Meirion Jones has collected 27 carcases from his fields at Cwm Mynach Isa farm.
Two more lambs were rescued with severe head puncture wounds but are unlikely to survive despite intensive nursing.
Mr Jones, 67, said the foxes are harbouring in the adjacent Coed Cwm Mynach, a 1,000-acre woodland owned and managed by the Woodland Trust.
“We were born and bred in the countryside but these people don’t think our ideas count for anything.”
And in Colorado, where Grey Wolves have just been re-introduced:
‘….when Coloradans are recreating in the wild…….they must pay attention to their surroundings. That means that while outdoors, remove one or both headphones and remember to look around and take note of your environment.’
“If we can teach people proper behavior, we’re not going to see any human conflicts whatsoever,”
Good luck with that…….
Correct me if I’m wrong but I thought fox hunting with dogs was already banned?
The hunt just goes through the motions following a pre trailed scent.
So why ban it again? Don’t get it!
Very well said!
I believe the ‘labour’ party imagine that all they have to do is get their core vote out in order to win the next general election. The conservative party has been so utterly contemptible in government that ‘labour’ are probably correct in that assessment.
In any case, the ban, ‘regretted’ by Blair, its architect, was never about hunting in the first place:
‘why was this low priority, hopelessly ill drafted, time consuming, expensive and utterly impractical act ever passed?
The two dog follow up limit…..responsible for the biggest wild animal welfare disaster in living memory……
Why did the proponents of this mindless piece of legislation in England talk all sensible and practical amendments out of time in parliament?
Why was the idea of an amended wild mammals protection bill, calling for the general protection of all wild mammals from undue suffering, also talked out of the commons?
Why did the hunting act have to be forced through parliament by inappropriate use of the parliament act, described as ‘the most illiberal act of the last century’ by one of our most distinguished parliamentarians, Roy Jenkins (Labour and Social Democrats)?
The answer to those questions is quite simply (freely admitted) that the hunting act has nothing to do with hunting and everything to do with partisan political agendas entirely unconcerned with animal or human welfare:
“Hilary (Armstrong) told him that if he didn’t bring back the Hunting Bill for a third reading soon we would not have a hope in hell of winning the foundation hospital vote. Tony Blair said sane people just would not understand how we can put at risk our whole public service agenda over hunting. Hilary said he had to understand that hunting went deep, and was symbolic.”
Alastair Campbell Tuesday 17th June 2003
“Now that hunting has been banned, we ought at last to own up to it: the struggle over that Bill was not just about animal welfare and personal freedom, it was class war.’’
Peter Bradley, former Labour MP for The Wrekin, Sunday Telegraph – 21stNovember 2004
“This is a dispute we must win, having long ago ceased to be about the fate of a few thousand deer and foxes. It’s about who governs us. Us or them?”
Chris Mullin, former Labour MP for Sunderland South – A View from the Foothills(2009)
“This has nothing to do with animal welfare – this is for the miners”
Dennis Skinner MP, Labour Party Conference – September 2004
“As one of those who voted for the Act, I made it clear beforehand in many discussions with the pro-hunting lobby that I expected farmers to shoot more foxes (an acknowledged agricultural pest) after the Act was passed.”
David Rendel, former Liberal Democrat MP for Newbury, letter to the Independent– 1st December 2006
Fox hunting truly serves no useful purpose, much like sport and trophy hunting in general. To all those who still do it: hey, what did that fox ever do to you?
Fox hunting is the most humane way of selectively dealing with problem foxes preying on lambs, poultry. Shooting wounds thousands of unrecoverable foxes every year, an animal welfare disaster.
Completely agree, True. They tell themselves ( and us ) stories and give excuses to justify it but it’s a seriously barbaric and cruel activity. Much like bull fighting in Spain, how anybody can have a party and gleefully find the suffering being inflicted upon a poor creature for entertainment ( oops, soz…”tradition”! ) value makes these people disgusting psychopaths. There is no justification. None. You want to hunt or cull an animal then you do so in the most humane way possible, which minimizes suffering. Hunting a small mammal down by terrorizing it with a herd of horses, pack of dogs and people accompanying on foot until it meets a terrible, grisly end does not meet my definition of ”minimizing suffering”. Then there’s the cubs that inevitably get torn to shreds…People who find this enjoyable and a ‘sport’ make me sick.
You’re probably already aware of this lady who goes around saving foxes from fur farms in the US. She deserves a medal. So many adorable videos of her rescues and these beautiful animals all have their own little characters. Just gorgeous, but everybody knows Finnegan fox;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zh-4I2pggNo&ab_channel=SaveAFox
I have rarely read such nonsense.
You would not ignore evidence regarding covid vaccines etc and yet you completely ignore the evidence that I have provided above.
Hunting kills aged and infirm foxes quickly; fit and healthy foxes easily evade foxhounds.
Shooting wounds 45% of foxes fired at.
Problem foxes kill lambs, poultry kept by smallholders, often amongst the poorest in the land and must be controlled.
Hunting is the most selective and humane way of killing problem foxes, aged and infirm foxes often wounded by shooting.
The hunting act is widely acknowledged to be an animal welfare catastrophe.
Nothing has been done about it because it was never about hunting in the first place, as I show above.
‘Peter Mandelson, the peer and former Labour MP, said the former prime minister included a commitment to hold a free vote on hunting with dogs in Labour’s 1997 manifesto after receiving money from an animal welfare fund.
Blair has said the foxhunting ban, which was finally enacted in 2004, was one of the policies he most regrets…..
Mandelson was speaking during a discussion on whether political donations can affect policy on the Times Radio podcast How to Win an Election.
He said: “I can offer you an example from 1997 where an organisation – it was a fund to do with the welfare of animals – got pretty transactional with us.
“They wanted a ban on hunting in return for a very sizeable amount of money. And Blair and co were sort of reluctant obviously to enter into some sort of trade over this policy……
“And we got into a difficult situation where frankly we went a little bit too far – further than Blair wanted – in making this commitment in our manifesto. It was frankly under, not duress, but under some sort of pressure. It wasn’t attractive and it’s not been repeated.”
Mandelson did not name the group responsible. However, in 1996 Labour accepted £1m from Brian Davies, who founded the International Fund for Animal Welfare.
Follow the money…….
Net Zero Pets The New Target – latest leaflet to print at home and deliver to neighbours or forward to politicians, media, friends online.
No, that’s not why dogs should be banned from public spaces, or muzzled, as they are in countries like Austria.
Jack Russells killed a week-old baby in London, 1986, and another in Telford, 2012. Staffies killed a London man, 45, in 2003; a County Durham man, 33, in 2009; a Manchester girl, 14, in 2013; a Liverpool woman, 43, in 2014; and a Cumbrian man, 45, in 2016, to name but a few.
“Researchers at the University of Liverpool with Public Health England recently estimated the total cost of dog attacks to the NHS, using hospital attendance and admissions data in England. Publishing their findings in Scientific Reports last year, they estimated direct costs of treatment to be more than £25m for the financial year 2017-18. Estimates for total costs of hospital attendance and admissions amounted to more than £70m for the same period.”
Rising fatalities, injuries, and NHS costs: dog bites as a public health problem British Medical Journal 27 April 2023
https://www.bmj.com/content/381/bmj.p879#:~:text=Researchers%20at%20the%20University%20of%20Liverpool%20with%20Public,more%20than%20%C2%A325m%20for%20the%20financial%20year%2023
That means the NHS had to spend nearly £100,000,000 in one year alone to treat victims of dog attacks.
Monday morning Sopwith Rd & Harvest Ride Warfield Bracknell
“Net Zero” should simply be shortened to “NERO”
Please give thought to Julian Assange today and tomorrow as his final appeal against extradition goes to court.
Stella Assange interview yesterday
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tIm4aIcJWig
John Mearsheimer (amongst many others) appeal:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gN_Shacd2Iw
Shout out to the farmers in Spain who are still revolting with no plans to let up;
”For 11 days in a row, Spanish farmers have blocked highways and ports, dumping cheaply imported Moroccan vegetables and cereals on the roads and marching with tractors into the centers of large cities.
Farmers took over Santander on the weekend, while this Wednesday, farmers plan to hold tractor marches and protests in Andalusia, Extremadura, and Castilla and León, with media reports warning of additional road closures and blockaded roads in these regions.
Last week, on Wednesday, Spanish protesters paralyzed traffic for hours at the port of Motril in southern Spain, where a large part of Morocco’s fruit and vegetable shipments arrive. Several of the vans stuck inside had their holds opened and tomatoes found inside were thrown onto the road in protest at cheap imports of agricultural products from Morocco, which do not meet EU standards.
Meanwhile, scores of farmers with tractors and human chains have blocked the busiest highways in Spain, and have also made crossing the Spanish-French border at La Jonquera difficult for more than two days.
The farmers’ mass protest, planned for Madrid on Feb. 21, is expected to cause major disruptions in the city. There are also fears that clashes with police could ensue. Farmers also announced on Thursday morning of last week that they would mobilize on Feb. 26, the day EU agriculture ministers meet in Brussels.”
https://rmx.news/economy/farmer-blockades-continue-to-paralyze-spain-on-11th-day-mass-protest-scheduled-for-madrid/
Much respect for these brave Spanish farmers.
‘No farmers No food.’
In the BBC news today:
Gloucestershire vertical farm is one of UK’s ‘most advanced’
Great. We can now grow salad and herbs all year in the UK. We can have the L and T in our BLTs. What about wheat or other staple foods? Dairy? Meat?
This cannot be the future of most farming.
One thing they don’t mention: I bet they increase the CO2 levels inside the warehouse in order to boost growth.
Not food farming. Garnish growing.
I disagree with almost every goal of tearing up tradition – I think tradition is the bedrock of a functional society – but elites hunting a fox on horseback, with a pack of excited dogs eager to hunt and to kill, while the animal being pursued runs in complete panic for its life, knowing the odds are it will die being ripped apart by a pack of frenzied hounds (although sometimes through sheer exhaustion), isn’t a tradition I want to uphold. It’s elitist cruelty and not something I will ever support.
Support? No.
Support others’ right to support? Yes.
They are not ‘elites’, many are farmers, farm workers, equestrian workers. Some follow on foot. Hill packs hunted problem foxes on foot.
Hunting selectively swiftly kills aged and infirm foxes that would otherwise die (and do now, after the Hunting Act) a slow and lingering death alone underground. Fit and healthy foxes are too smart and elusive even for the best foxhounds.
Shooting is not similarly selective and wounds thousands of foxes every year that cannot be recovered due to the Hunting Act two dog follow up limit.
You are complicit in an inhuman, barbaric, animal welfare disaster.
https://www.conservativewoman.co.uk/andrew-bridgen-tells-james-roguski-we-must-just-say-no/
Video of the Interview. Transcript embedded. The indomitable Andrew Bridgen.
With regards to our Iranian friend in the video above, the Met police have released a statement justifying their picking on him. Yes it was his fault for being provocative and therefore his fault he got sticks and soil lobbed at him from a load of triggered terrorist supporters. What this chap needs is some allies. I’d laugh my bits off if he turned up on Saturday with 50 mates. What would the bent bizzies do then??;
https://twitter.com/GhorbaniiNiyak/status/1759732475419340955
“Mr Nkozi was arrested and held overnight in police cells for being provocative by being black in a whites only area. He had only himself to blame that the lynch mob almost got him.”
“Labour has vowed to eliminate fox hunting within its first five years in power, saying there is not a majority in “any part of the country” that wants it to continue,”
Will they apply the same logic to immigration. That requires them to stopp legal immigration and require all future illegal arrivals to live solely in London?
That is an absolutely brilliant point, and one we can all use in communicating to our MPs.
“Mass immigration is bringing a European-style populist revolt to Ireland”
At long last, the Irish are rising against their real enemy, instead of always against the English. Ethnic Europeans worldwide are all in this together.
Wildlife campaigners worry about providing “safe havens” for wildlife in danger of extinction. Maybe they should look at their own situation.
What is common across all the wokeness in the newsm tems above, is that this is essentially communism and nazism being enacted in our societies. The nazis took control of their societies and so did the communists. One way they did this was to take control of the media and entertainment and embed control ‘messages’ into the content. It is as plain as day that we are becoming a communist/nazi-fied society.
The economy in particular is being nazi-fied: companies are being controlled to do the bidding of government policies, even under the tories, and/or by pressure group wokeness threats. It will be very much worse under Stalin Starmer and his comm-nazis.
See Tik History on YouTube for more fascinating detail on how the nazis were a branch of socialism (not capitalists!l