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Vaccine Efficacy Statistics as Information Hazard

by Toby Young
17 November 2021 6:45 PM

There follows a guest post by the German blogger who calls himself eugyppius. This piece, about the soaring case rate in Germany in spite of the same percentage of the population being vaccinated as in the U.K.’s, originally appeared on his Substack account. You can subscribe to that here.

Germany and the United Kingdom have essentially identical rates of vaccination. In both countries, about 67% percent of everyone is vaccinated.

In fact, here in Germany our vaccination rates are likely understated, so we may even be slightly ahead of the British.

Despite all of this vaccination, German mortality is more or less identical to that seen last year. On November 16th 2020, we had around two deaths per million, and right on schedule we are back at two deaths per million now. The United Kingdom is also at two deaths per million right now, but this is just a third of the mortality they had last year, and the curve is totally different:

Why are deaths down in the United Kingdom, but not in Germany?

Well, there is the dry tinder theory, and the United Kingdom surely has much higher levels of natural immunity than we do here on the continent. All that makes a big difference. But there’s probably another reason too. While Germany has vaccinated 85.7% of everyone aged 60 and over, the United Kingdom has vaccinated these cohorts well in excess of 90%:

That might seem a small difference, but it reflects a vaccination campaign more carefully targeted at those most likely to die of Corona infection. One or two hundred thousand vaccinations in these groups can make a serious difference, for we have seen that the vaccines do reduce the risk of severe outcome. The effect fades, but even seven or eight months after vaccination, a vaccinated 80 year-old is the equivalent of an unvaccinated 70 year-old, as far as SARS-2 is concerned.

That’s far less than the vaccinators pretend, but even lacklustre reductions in risk can matter enormously, where that risk is substantial.

Now a familiar but important point:

We know from studies on influenza vaccination, that those most at-risk of dying from the flu are strikingly less likely to receive flu shots. This creates an illusion of high efficacy against severe outcome. There appear to be many reasons for this. Some of the unvaccinated are simply terminally ill patients in palliative care, but a crucial subset will be people who are for whatever reason hard to reach, because they are outliers and as such live at the edges of society. Some of them will be shut-ins, or immigrants who don’t speak German, or mentally ill, or eccentrics who refuse medical treatment in general, or whatever.

The worse you are at offering vaccines to these people, the more likely you will be to enter a bizarre hall of mirrors – a funhouse where overall Corona mortality never really declines, but your efficacy statistics show that the vaccines are fantastic at saving lives.

I suggest that this is what is happening now, and why places like Germany and Austria have been seized by such a frenzy for universal vaccination. Our vaccinators, besotted with the broken efficacy statistics that are to some unknown degree an artefact of failures like these, are manically sticking needles in all and sundry. None of this will do anything to bring deaths down, but as they vaccinate more healthy low-risk people, their efficacy statistics will only improve, which will in turn drive their mania and religious certainty to new heights.

What would very likely have made a difference, would have been finding and offering vaccines to that tiny 0.5% of the unvaccinated who are most likely to die, while the weather was still good and there was little risk of first-dose infection enhancement. We should not deceive ourselves: Many of these people are beyond the help of vaccines and will succumb to Corona anyway, while most of the rest will die soon of other causes, even if the vaccines save them for now. But this is the only place where there are gains to be made. Vaccinating millions of young people will do nothing, aside from causing short-term case spikes and deaths in some subset of them.

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78 Comments
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Mogwai
Mogwai
8 months ago

It really is as if paedophilia has become decriminalized. This here, this tip of the iceberg collection, demonstrates that. Also, I remember reading a Twitter thread somebody had very cleverly worked on. They’d researched the judges who were putting away protestors and people who’d written anti-establishment posts online, and these same judges were letting sick paedos walk free. And it apparently doesn’t matter that some of these men are dads. No threat to kids, really?? Just a harmless pastime?
So anti-narrative words are officially deemed worse than viewing child rape images by the Clown World justice system. Reassuring isn’t it?

”SOUTH SHIELDS: Paedophile dad, Matthew Robinson, 37, guilty of possessing and distributing sexual abuse images of children between 4-10 being raped – & likened distribution of the images to “trading football cards” – has walked free from court

Defence said he ‘is a family man”’

https://x.com/Wommando/status/1834527319626490024

https://x.com/Wommando/status/1835713437202092100

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Heretic
Heretic
8 months ago
Reply to  Mogwai

It is true that drug dealers, prostitutes and paedophiles routinely use their children as human shields, presenting themselves as “devoted mothers”, or “caring babysitters”, or “family men”, and the children co-operate with this because they’ve been groomed from infancy, helping the criminals to maintain a facade of respectability in the town, and prolonging the child’s suffering.

Last edited 8 months ago by Heretic
2
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Heretic
Heretic
8 months ago
Reply to  Mogwai

Judge orders Rotherham rape gang survivor to REMOVE demand for deportations in court statement (gbnews.com)

2
0
Dinger64
Dinger64
8 months ago
Reply to  Mogwai

If he’d have gotten anywhere near my children, I wouldn’t have needed a judge to advise me of the required action!

Last edited 8 months ago by Dinger64
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Lockdown Sceptic
Lockdown Sceptic
8 months ago

Don’t Self Censor Speak The Truth – latest leaflet to print at home and deliver to neighbours or forward to politicians, your new MP, your local vicar, online media and friends online.  Start a local campaign.

We have over 200 leaflet ideas on the link on the leaflet.

04a-Dont-Self-Censor-Speak-The-Truth-MONOCHROME-copy
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godknowsimgood
godknowsimgood
8 months ago

I’d be very interested to hear the thoughtful opinions of anyone here about this story:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13857487/Shakespeare-play-axed-director-refused-remove-pro-transgender-pro-Palestine-references-new-Midsummer-Nights-Dream.html

“Shakespeare play is axed after director ‘refused’ to remove ‘pro-transgender’ and ‘pro-Palestine’ references in new take on A Midsummer Night’s Dream

A five-week run of A Midsummer Night’s Dream at a major Manchester theatre was cancelled after the director bitterly feuded with theatre bosses over references to Palestine and trans rights.

…Theatre bosses cancelled the first few performances, which were due to start on September 6, citing a cast injury and a ‘technical issue.

But the real reason for the cancellation was that theatre bosses objected to a song in the production which referred to trans rights and the phrase ‘Free Palestine’, Manchester Evening News revealed.

…On Wednesday the cast were called in for a meeting at 11am to resolve it, they couldn’t’, they said. 

‘At the weekend they couldn’t agree, the director had walked, so they cancelled it.’”

You may abhor the idea of inserting pro-trans and pro-Palestine propaganda into a Shakespeare play, but do you support the cancellation of the play or do you think the director and cast should have been allowed the freedom to perform the play in the way they wanted, against the wishes of the ‘theatre bosses’?

1
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NeilParkin
NeilParkin
8 months ago
Reply to  godknowsimgood

They were absolutely right. Trying to force current political messaging into established pieces is an abomination. What next Harry Potter and the Working Time Directive..?

5
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transmissionofflame
transmissionofflame
8 months ago
Reply to  godknowsimgood

If you’re asking what I would have done in their shoes, I like to think I would have let the thing go ahead, unless I thought it was going to lose me money. If you’re in the theatre business you surely accept that there will be stuff you don’t like, for various reasons. But until you are faced with that choice, it’s just speculation. But unless this theatre is taking public money, it’s up to the people who own and manage the theatre.

4
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huxleypiggles
huxleypiggles
8 months ago
Reply to  transmissionofflame

I understand your position tof but at some point lines of decency are crossed and this is one of them.

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transmissionofflame
transmissionofflame
8 months ago
Reply to  huxleypiggles

As long as no-one expects me to pay for it, I’m happy for them to do what they like – this is between the owners, the writers and the audience – all are free to walk away from something they don’t like. Andrew Lawrence was cancelled by theatre owners – maybe some of them thought he had crossed lines of decency.

The production sounds awful – much like most of what I catch fragments of on TV and in film trailers.

3
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Claphamanian
Claphamanian
8 months ago
Reply to  godknowsimgood

The production itself is what happens when people walk around the enchanted wood of left-liberalism wearing the ass’s head of decolonialism. Ill-met by moonlight.

3
0
soundofreason
soundofreason
8 months ago
Reply to  godknowsimgood

An adaptation of A Midsummer Night’s Dream with a drum’n’bass soundtrack…

Well, that’s me out.

A few years back I saw and enjoyed a production of ‘Macbeth’ at ‘Shakespeare’s Globe’. In the Porter’s scene the actor departed a little from the script of the play and listed a few modern day ‘demons’ as well as, or instead of, the conventional script (including a reference to Trump). I understand it’s a fairly common thing for production companies to do with this scene. It didn’t spoil the scene and raised a bit of a laugh.

I don’t have a problem with different ‘takes’ on Shakespeare’s plays – but I mostly prefer them played ‘straight’.

An [musical] adaptation of A Midsummer Night’s Dream with a drum’n’bass soundtrack? Let me check my diary… Ah. what a shame, I’ll be chewing my own leg off instead.

3
0
huxleypiggles
huxleypiggles
8 months ago
Reply to  godknowsimgood

Why do theatre directors believe they have a right to infuse modern day thinking in to writings that are rooted in the past? The fact that the British people own Shakespeare’s plays as part of our heritage does not provide luvvy wokerati with a licence to defile them as they see fit. These precious and rightly treasured gifts are deserving of their own protections. What next, The Merchant of Venice reinterpreted by Hamas?

0
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godknowsimgood
godknowsimgood
8 months ago
Reply to  huxleypiggles

They have a right to do what they want creatively with Shakespeare and you have a right not to like it and not to pay money to see it.

1
0
soundofreason
soundofreason
8 months ago
Reply to  godknowsimgood

Do I have to pay money for them to put the show on? Government (local or central) grants and whatnot? It’s fine if they can put it on and attract a paying audience – well done them – but if it’s my money then I don’t want it spent on something that can’t even attract a decent audience.

1
0
godknowsimgood
godknowsimgood
8 months ago
Reply to  soundofreason

I don’t think very much of your money goes towards a grant for one production of a play in a Manchester Theatre, if they even got a grant. A tiny fraction of a penny at the most.

0
0
soundofreason
soundofreason
8 months ago
Reply to  godknowsimgood

A tiny fraction of a penny at the most.

That’s waaay too much. 🙂

If they didn’t have a grant then it’s just a commercial decision. I’d be fine with that no matter which way it had gone or how much alphabet soup was involved.

If they were supporting a terrorist organisation then I’d want them to be closed down.

The trouble with government funding to the ‘arts’ is often not the amount given to the individual productions but the cost of the bureaucracy to administer it.

1
0
Steve-Devon
Steve-Devon
8 months ago

“Second-hand electric car prices falling at faster and faster rate”

This article reports on the inability of the lease industry to sell it’s end of lease electric cars (EVs) to private buyers. This sort of sentiment fails to recognise that what they are trying to do is to move from a situation where the lease company carries the risks and liabilities of owning an EV to the situation where a private individual carries the risks and liabilities of an EV, risks and liabilities, which for a secondhand EV are considerable.

A leased EV in the corporate world will be serviced and maintained by a main agent, the driver will probably have a gilt edged corporate charging/payment card. All of that goes when the EV moves to private ownership. Many private motorists rely on local garages and repair shops to keep their petrol/diesel (ICE) car on the road, few of these ICE repair people will ever be in a position to handle EVs and if we go 100% EV many of these local car repairers will be closed down. If I had an EV how would I get it repaired? And also, how would I get it charged? I do not have a Smart-Phone and only have a barely creditable credit card, I would not dare to go anywhere for fear of getting stuck at a charging point that told me I had no credit left.

A certain well known motoring pundit has reportedly said that EVs are essentially white goods like kettles, toasters or washing machines. When your kettle burns out you bin it and buy a new one, EVs are fast being seen as being in that category. Except that whereas junk kettles are a big enough waste problem, junk EVs are going to be a colossal problem and as junked EVs stack up faster than we can re-cycle them this will put a distinct limit on how many EVs the country can handle.

It seems to me that all these issues with EVs means that for a country like the UK there is a finite limit as to how many EVs we can operate. My estimate is that the maximum number of EVs the UK can handle is between 3 to 5 million. If I am correct then EVs equal a move to a two tier standard of transport; the elite corporate funded EV drivers and the rest of us on a bike or a bus or simply going nowhere. As with so many issues in modern life, for many of us EVs are just more smoke and mirrors, pipe-dream nonsense.

12
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JohnK
JohnK
8 months ago
Reply to  Steve-Devon

A sane private buyer might get a good deal if they are prepared to take a financial risk. However, if they actually end up being scrap quite early it undermines the claim that they are good for the environment.

10
0
Monro
Monro
8 months ago

Ben Wallace calls out ‘two-tier policing’ for trail hunts

‘Blair’s Britain’

Blair got away with forcing the hunting act through parliament by improper use of the parliament act.

The hunting act had zero scientific evidence to support it.

So much that has followed since, abuses of parliamentary procedure, a lack of evidential base for far reaching and illiberal measures, proceeds from the arrogance of this self serving and partial political class.

No wonder they are held in contempt across the country, this government supported by a scant 12% of the population.

What a bunch of venal, mendacious, bigoted and ignorant socialist fascist apparatchiks!

4
0
Claphamanian
Claphamanian
8 months ago
Reply to  Monro

Banning fox hunting was all about demonstrating who rules England. It wasn’t the red-coated country toffs. It was nothing to do with cruelty to animals.

5
0
Monro
Monro
8 months ago
Reply to  Claphamanian

Quite so and frankly admitted by the one or two Labour MPs with some honesty (and, no doubt, several pints) in them.

Scientific and peer reviewed research since has shown the illiberal and barbaric hunting act to have significant adverse animal welfare effects, thousands of shot and wounded foxes left to die an unspeakable death underground unrecovered as a direct consequence of the hunting acts two dog limit, admitted even by the league against cruel sports to be useless in thick cover.

1
0
Claphamanian
Claphamanian
8 months ago

Albania is a substitute for the English Channel.

Sir K will stop the boats. The ‘asylum seekers’ (itself a grossly deceptive term) will be given papers rubber-stamped in the former realm of King Zog. Italy may have reduced the numbers coming across the Mediterranean in boats, but the number of ‘asylum seekers’ has risen by a third.

2
0
JohnK
JohnK
8 months ago
Reply to  Claphamanian

It’s time for him to have a look at a map, a cynic might observe.

1
0
Heretic
Heretic
8 months ago

“Why does the National Trust poo-poo its past?”

This is a ludicrous, shameful corruption of the English language by the Telegraph’s Charles Moore. He talks about preserving our heritage, but what about preserving our language?

The correct English word is “POOH-POOH”:

“”to dismiss lightly and contemptuously,” literally “to turn aside with an exclamation of ‘pooh,'” 1827, a slang reduplication of dismissive expression pooh. Among the many 19th century theories of the origin of language was the Pooh-pooh theory (1860), which held that language grew from natural expressions of surprise, joy, pain, or grief.”

Last edited 8 months ago by Heretic
0
0
Heretic
Heretic
8 months ago

“Devon & Cornwall Police tried to section a disabled 64 year-old man for being Right-wing”– Turning Point U.K.

Thanks to Turning Point U.K. and the Daily Sceptic for drawing attention to this case, and featuring the excellent interview with the British Patriot Mr. Dunn.

1
0
Dinger64
Dinger64
8 months ago

“Net Zero ‘monstrosities’ threaten to scar Loch Ness ‘until the next ice age”

Brilliant! pumping water uphill just to let it run down again! Our energy security is solved!

1
0
Dinger64
Dinger64
8 months ago

“Legal right to work from home will boost productivity, says Labour”

So if my toilet gets backed up with sh!t, it’s no good calling a plumber because he’s working from home?

3
0
Judith pelham
Judith pelham
8 months ago
Reply to  Dinger64

More two tier. Try teaching chemistry from home. Or doing an operation, only people who spend time looking at screens can do this. And some of them are totally unproductive.

3
0

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